Inside the Numbers: Indians lineup could be strong in 2012

Jason Kipnis (Photo: AP)

The Indians acquisition of Casey Kotchman gives an answer (unsatisfactory to some) to the off-season-long question: Who’s on first?

But what does this move spell out for the rest of the roster? Presumably, Kotchman will be given the chance to play 1B on an everyday basis and Matt LaPorta (proud owner of one remaining option) will be asked to compete in Columbus for ABs (Mills and Canzler will be part of that curious logjam, too).

Let’s assume that Casey Kotchman is two things: (A): Good enough to stay at 1B, and (B): Healthy enough to play around 130 games given (A).

Now that we have the disclaimers out of the way, let’s move on to the fun part: what will the Indians roster actually look like? (Note: using wOBA which takes into account both OBP and SLG but doesn’t overweight SLG like OPS and accounts for all offensive actions appropriately (i.e. a 1B is worth more than a walk because runners can advance more than one base, and reaching base on an error does have some offensive value, etc. please go here for a more complete explanation)

POS	Player	2011 wOBA	Career wOBA	*Proj. wOBA
C	Carlos Santana	.349	.357	.366
1B	Casey Kotchman	.351	.321	.326
2B	Jason Kipnis	.371	.371	.350
3B	Jack Hannahan	.320	.302	.305
SS	Asdrubal Cabrera	.345	.334	.342
LF	Michael Brantley	.309	.301	.315
CF	Grady Sizemore	.302	.361	.330
RF	Shin-Soo Choo	.325	.374	.364
DH	Travis Hafner	.353	.380	.346
AVG	STARTERS	.336	.345	.338

*Projections are based on average of ZIPS, Marcel and Bill James projections at www.fangraphs.com

All things considered, this is a pretty darn good lineup. After adjusting for approximately 35% of PA’s going to replacement level players and other back-ups, the team could accumulate a wOBA of around .326. In 2011, this would have placed them 7th overall in MLB (ahead of the Royals, behind the Brewers, Cardinals, Tigers, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox). Furthermore, when we look at the projections going into 2012, we can be somewhat optimistic of getting close to a repeat aggregate performance.

However, there are a few big things to temper our optimism:

1. Bounce back seasons are being counted on by Sizemore, Choo and Santana.
2. Kotchman and Kipnis are expected to perform at last-year’s levels.
3. Youth: Kipnis, Santana, Brantley are unknowns and could just flat-out struggle, more likely for Kipnis, less so for Santana and Brantley who have longer track records.
4. Old Age/Health: Hafner, Sizemore, Choo and Kotchman are either old or injury-prone or both. It is unlikely all remain healthy and productive for 400-500 PA each. Kotchman had a truly lucky year and is very unlikely to duplicate.

There are a couple reasons to have a positive outlook as well:

1. Prospects: Chisenhall and Brantley could easily outperform their projections (.312 and .315 resepctively).
2. Sizemore is still relatively young (29) and if he actually is healthy, could exceed the projections which naturally hedge for injury and deterioration.

The overall team has some reason for optimism and, as a static unit, the Indians have an outside shot at getting a bunch of breaks (health and prospect maturation) to compete with the Tigers.

Up next, I’ll take a look at possible lineup construction and how an under appreciated player could be a very valuable piece if used correctly.

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Tribe Happenings: Chisenhall may start season in minors

Barring some injuries, it looks like Chisenhall

is ticketed for the minors (Photo: AP).

Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Indians notebook…

Chisenhall’s no sure thing

I’ve heard a lot of discussion that one of the position battles that bears watching this spring is at third base between Lonnie Chisenhall and Jack Hannahan. While it is technically true that the third base starter has yet to be determined, the position battle Chisenhall is involved with is not with Hannahan, but with several bullpen arms and right-handed hitting bench options.

Barring an injury this spring Hannahan is a lock to be on the Indians opening day 25-man roster. In addition to the guaranteed $1.1 million he is scheduled to make this season, he also is an exceptional defender, a key component in the makeup of the team, and has some versatility to play a few other positions. So there is no doubt he is on the team.

Chisenhall has a chance to make the opening day 25-man roster, but unless the Indians suddenly change their philosophy with the makeup of the roster or someone gets hurt, it looks like he is ticketed to open the 2012 season at Triple-A Columbus. He is no doubt the Indians’ third baseman of the future, and that future may be now, but there are several reasons as to why he may have to open the season at Columbus.

The Indians will be sporting a regular starting lineup that features an all left-handed hitting lineup (7 lefties, 2 switch hitters). Since both Chisenhall and Hannahan hit left-handed they are probably unable to keep both players since they need to have an all right-handed hitting bench in order to best complement their left-handed heavy starting lineup.

If the Indians stick with their four man bench setup like in years past (12 pitchers, 13 position players), then barring injury the bench looks close to being set right now with catcher Lou Marson, infielder Jason Donald, outfielder/first baseman Shelley Duncan all but guaranteed spots. The fourth and final spot could be filled with Hannahan or Chisenhall so the Indians can carry both players, but the Indians will probably need that final spot on the bench for another right-handed bat like Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Spilborghs, or maybe even Jose Lopez.

So the true battle that involves Chisenhall this spring comes down to the Indians making the best decision on what to do with the 25th spot on the roster. Do they just do what they have in the past and stay with the 12-man pitching staff and just option Chisenhall to Columbus? This looks like the most ideal scenario. The only chance he may have to make the team is if they decide to have more flexibility with the lineup and only have 11 pitchers, thus creating another bench opening for someone like Hannahan since Chisenhall would be the regular third baseman if he is with the team.

You hate to send Chisenhall to the minors to open the season, but it may be what is best for the team in the short term. The pitching staff really trusts Hannahan over at third base, and Chisenhall is still adjusting to the big leagues. His defense and hitting both could use a little more polish in the minors, and he still does have all three of his options left.

The Indians were able to afford the lumps they took with Chisenhall starting at third base for them last season because they were desperate for a spark, but they may not have that luxury to start this season since it is important that they get off to a good start. With another young player in Jason Kipnis manning second base to start the season, from a consistency perspective it may make more sense to go with the more sure thing in Hannahan at third base in the short term.

Chisenhall’s situation will play itself out over the course of spring training with his performance, the performance of others, and most importantly injuries to him and others. All that being said, if both Hannahan and Chisenhall are healthy it really looks like Chisenhall is going to start the season in Columbus.

Increased bench values

Speaking of the Indians’ bench, it will be more important than ever to have a deeper, stronger bench because of how manager Manny Acta will need to be able to use his bench almost every game for late game matchups. With an all left-handed starting lineup teams are going to match up late in games with left-handers from the bullpen so Acta needs suitable options to turn to in key spots. He also needs to have players that have the capability to start on a regular basis when they face a left-handed starter.

At this point the prohibitive favorites to make the bench are catcher Lou Marson, infielder Jason Donald, and first baseman/outfielder Shelley Duncan. If all three of those players are healthy they are expected to man three of the four bench spots, or five bench spots if Acta decides to roll with 11 pitchers.

That final bench spot is the only one up for grabs. The Indians at this point could conceivably go in any direction with that fourth spot on the bench. They could use it for Hannahan if they feel Chisenhall should be the everyday third baseman. They could use it for Cunningham if they feel Donald and Duncan do not provide enough versatility for the outfield. They could use it on Spilborghs or Lopez to have more experience and versatility.

The makeup of the Indians’ bench is going to be very important to the success of the team. Acta is going to need options that can play a lot against lefties and in late game pinch hitting situations. The Indians appear to have those options with Marson, Donald and Duncan, but the only question that remains is who the last person will be in that group.

Cabrera signed

The Indians resolved their final arbitration case on Friday when they announced that shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera had been signed to a one year $4.55 million deal. By agreeing to the deal he and the Indians will not go to arbitration, a streak the club has held intact since they last went in 1991 with Jerry Browne and Greg Swindell.

Cabrera, 26, was a first time All Star last season and was awarded the Silver Slugger award after he hit .273 with 25 homers, 92 RBI and .792 OPS in 151 games last season. His 25 homers were a club record by a shortstop, beating out the old record held by Jhonny Peralta in 2005 when he hit 24 home runs. Cabrera led the team in runs (87), hits (165), RBI (92) and stolen bases (17) and among shortstops in the American League he led them in RBI and was tied for first in hits, and second in runs, doubles and home runs.

Cabrera and the Indians were working on a long term deal, but for now he took the one year deal since his arbitration hearing date was closing in fast. He and the Indians are expected to continue to work on trying to hash out a long term deal this spring. Even if a long term deal is not agreed to, he is still property of the Indians beyond this coming season as he is not eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season.

Indians are a good team

People are so disgusted with the Indians’ offseason and impressed with the Tigers’ offseason that I get this sense that many people have already thrown up the proverbial white flag on the coming season.

A lot of people seem to have forgotten that the Indians were the best team in baseball the first two months of the season last year when they were healthy. As soon as players like Shin-Soo Choo, Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, and others got hurt, they started to struggle. It remains to be seen if the struggles the last several months in 2011 was simply just water meeting its level or because of the injuries, but I find it amazing how so many people disregard the start they got off to last season.

On top of that, no one aside from Asdrubal Cabrera really had a banner year for the offense. Almost everyone underperformed, yet they still managed to win 80 games. A lot more is expected from the likes of Choo, Sizemore, Hafner, Carlos Santana, and Michael Brantley, and if you add in a young gun like Kipnis into the mix for the whole year, the lineup is actually pretty good.

The top of the rotation with Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez has a lot of potential to be electric, and the Indians have a lot of depth in the rotation behind them. The bullpen is intact and a strength too. Just like with the position players no one really had a great year or one that was unexpected except for some of the guys in the bullpen. But for the most part the pitchers underperformed as Chris Perez was inconsistent, Jimenez was a mechanical mess, and Fausto Carmona was too up and down.

If pitchers like Jimenez can pitch up to their potential and hitters like Santana can perform as expected, this team will be something to be reckoned with this season. No one is wishing for any player to have a career year like Cabrera did last year. No, not at all. But if the regulars can just stay healthy and perform up to their capabilities, then anything can happen.

There will surely be some disappointments and players that get hurt or underperform, but limiting those injuries and poor performances is the key for a franchise like the Indians from being a 75 win team or a 90 win team. If they can be a little luckier in the health department and the players do what is expected this season, they will make some noise in the AL Central. The Tigers may be the overwhelming favorite to win the division, but the Indians are a team that could compete all year and be a dark horse to come through and win it down the stretch.

Huff on the ups

While right-handed pitcher Kevin Slowey is the favorite to land the fifth spot in the rotation this spring, the Indians still plan to go into spring training with a competition for the final spot. Others in the mix are left-hander David Huff, right-handed pitcher Jeanmar Gomez, and right-handed pitcher Zach McAllister.

Out of all of the pitchers competing for the final spot in the rotation they are all good options, though inserting a lefty like Huff into the rotation is intriguing in order to give teams a different look every five days. Last season he went 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) in Cleveland, and in 18 starts for Triple-A Columbus he went 9-3 with a 3.87 ERA.

Huff bounced back from a dreadful 2010 campaign in Cleveland where he went 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 15 starts. His improved performance last season had a lot to do with a delivery overhaul that he and Triple-A pitching coach Ruben Niebla worked on before and during last season.

Niebla got Huff to get more hip turn, more load over the rubber, and got his lead arm up a little more in order to hide the ball. This delivery change helped his fastball have more life and his command was much better. He took ownership of the delivery change, and in turn gained more confidence and developed a better understanding of what he wants to do on the mound.

In the past Huff also had a tendency to rely on his changeup too much, something opposing hitters knew as well. So last season the Indians asked him to use his curveball and cutter more, which in turn helped his fastball play better.

Over the course of the season the Indians are going to need seven or eight starters, so a pitcher like Huff needs to be ready for his chance should he open the season in the minors. While it may not be the best situation for any pitcher stuck in the minors since they all want to be in the big leagues, it is a good situation for the Indians to have pitchers like Huff, Gomez, and McAllister on stand-by in Columbus when a need arises.

Parting shots

With the signing of Asdrubal Cabrera on Friday, the Indians are pretty much done spending this offseason. Their 2012 team payroll is right around $68.5 million. … Pitchers and catchers report to Major League spring training on February 20th. Also, pitchers and catchers report to minor league camp on March 5th, and position players report on March 9th. … I’ve been out of town for a family matter the past week so my new book has been delayed considerably, but I will have an update on that later this week. Also, my new site should launch on Tuesday.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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Reviewing the Indians offseason

Grady Sizemore (Photo: AP)

This time of year, fans are bundled up in warm clothes and blankets, watching the snow fall as they anxiously await the arrival of spring training. Although Old Man Winter’s wrath will still be felt in Cleveland in mid-February, in Goodyear, Arizona, home of the Indians spring training facilities, it will be baseball season. The sound of bats hitting balls and balls hitting gloves will bring about a feeling of excitement and hope, for both players and fans.

The goal for any organization is to reach the playoffs and have the opportunity to compete for a World Series Championship, which is something the Indians have not won since the 1948 season. In order to reach the postseason, Indians General Manager Chris Antonetti knew that a few more pieces were needed to complement the young core already in place in Cleveland.

Antonetti did not waste any time.

Just days after the conclusion of the World Series, Antonetti made the first substantial move of the baseball offseason, acquiring veteran pitcher Derek Lowe from the Atlanta Braves for minor league pitcher Chris Jones. Lowe endured a frustrating 2011 season that saw him win only 9 games while losing 17, but what he offers is stability at the back of a young Indians rotation. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Lowe has started no less than 32 games and has pitched no less than 182 innings.

That durability is what intrigued Antonetti. With the Braves accepting to pay $10 million of Lowe’s $15 million contract, the front office saw the move as a low risk-high reward type of deal.

"We feel like we were able to add a quality, durable Major League starter to our rotation; a guy who's pitched 180 or more innings every year since 2002," Antonetti said. "He has demonstrated durability. He has pitched on some very good teams, and we feel he has a leadership ability that could rub off on some of our starters."

The Indians’ biggest offseason decision came when the front office decided to decline its $9 million option on outfielder, and fan-favorite, Grady Sizemore. For years, Sizemore had been one of the faces of the Cleveland Indians franchise, but multiple injuries had derailed the former star’s career. The $9 million option was too much for a small market team like Cleveland to pay for a player that came with a number of risks.

However, on November 23rd in a somewhat surprising move, Sizemore officially re-signed with the Indians on a one year, $5 million contract, plus performance incentives that could make the contract worth up to the $9 million he would have made had his option been exercised. The organization’s hope is that Sizemore can regain his health and return to the player he was from 2005-2008, when he was considered one of the elite players in all of baseball.

Next up on the agenda for Antonetti was addressing the team’s depth at the Major and Minor league levels. Depth had become a serious problem for the Indians over the past two seasons. Attempting to fix that problem, Antonetti brought in several players on Minor League contracts. Players such as catchers Matt Pagnozzi and Michael Hernandez, outfielder Felix Pie, infielders Jose Lopez and Andy LaRoche and pitchers Robinson Tejeda, Chris Seddon, and Chris Ray. More recently, Antonetti has inked outfielders Fred Lewis and Ryan Spilborghs, and pitchers Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray, and Jeremy Accardo to minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training.

Wheeler has the chance to fill a veteran bullpen role, similar to the role filled by Chad Durbin last season. In 2011, Wheeler posted a 2-2 record, with a 4.38 ERA in 49.1 innings pitched. In the previous three seasons, the 34-year-old reliever posted a combined 3.25 ERA.

To shore up the depth at the Major League level, Antonetti sent Minor League reliever Cory Burns to the San Diego Padres in exchange for outfielder Aaron Cunningham. Cunningham was once a promising prospect, but has struggled some at the Major League level. However, he does offer a much needed right-handed bat off of the bench and a good track record against left-handed pitching.

In another depth move, the Indians sent cash ($100 K) to the Tampa Bay Rays in return for 1B/3B/OF Russ Canzler, who was designated for assignment following the Rays acquisition of infielder Jeff Keppinger. In 2011, Canzler was named the International League MVP, while playing for Triple-A Durham. The soon to be 26-year-old hit .314, with 18 HR, 40 doubles, and 83 RBI in 2011. In Canzler, the Indians receive young depth for the corner positions.

In a move made out of surprising necessity, Antonetti shipped relief pitcher Zach Putnam to Colorado for starting pitcher Kevin Slowey. The necessity for another starter came about after the shocking news of Fausto Carmona’s arrest in the Dominican Republic for using a false identity. Carmona’s real name is believed to be Roberto Hernandez Heredia, and the pitcher is truly 31, not 28, as the Indians originally believed. This problem could take months, or even years, to settle, so Carmona’s original spot in the 2012 rotation is now up for grabs.

Slowey is coming off a disastrous, injury-plagued year, in which he went 0-8, with a 6.67 ERA in 8 starts. For his career, Slowey has gone 39-29 with a 4.66 ERA. During his 5 years in the Majors, the starter has gone 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 4 starts at Progressive Field.

In a move to bolster the starting nine on the field, the Indians signed 1B Casey Kotchman to a 1 year, $3 million contract. Although he’s not a power threat or necessarily an impact bat, Kotchman still has a lot to offer the Tribe. After getting eye surgery to correct blurred vision prior to last season, Kotchman hit a career best .306, with 10 HR and 48 RBI in 2011 for the Rays. His .306 average was good enough for 8th best in the American League.

The first baseman is a left-handed hitter, adding to the surplus of lefties in the Indians lineup. However, catcher Carlos Santana is expected to get the majority of starts at first base against left-handed pitching. Kotchman’s biggest asset is not his bat, but his glove. His .998 fielding percentage is the highest in Major League history for first baseman with at least 700 games at the position. In his career, Kotchman has made a total of 11 errors in 6,076 chances. Last season, Indians’ first basemen made a combined 12 errors in 1,607 chances. That stellar defense will be a welcome sight for the Indians’ sinkerball-heavy pitching staff.

Although the offseason is not completely over, the brunt of the Indians heavy lifting this offseason appears to be complete. As we proceed through February the winter is starting to wind down, and baseball returns this month.

When spring training begins, each of the 30 teams will believe that they have what it takes to make a World Series run. Fans of Cleveland sports have been dying to find a reason to believe. That reason may be here, in the form of young players such as, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall and Justin Masterson.

The expectations are rising in Cleveland, and the city has a baseball team that’s determined to fulfill the hopes and dreams of the city’s fans.

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Offseason Spotlight: Casey Frawley

Casey Frawley (Photo: IPI)

With a new baseball season upon us, it provides an opportunity for some players to wipe the slate clean. Last year’s disappointment can turn into this season’s success. That’s the approach some players are taking that are looking to rebound from a rough 2011. One of those players is infielder Casey Frawley.

Frawley, 24, struggled through a disappointing 2011 campaign at High-A Kinston as he hit just .215 with 11 HR, 59 RBI, and .638 OPS in 127 games. The production numbers were up to par with seasons past, but the batting average and slugging percentage (.346) were all significantly lower than in previous seasons.

Frawley did not perform up to expectations, but he was also battling some eye issues that affected him all season.

“I went through some issues that not a lot of people know about as I had some vision issues,” Frawley said in a recent interview for the IPI. “I had it [in 2010 too], but it sparked up again [last] year. My eyes keep changing so my prescription keeps changing, and over the course of about two and a half months [last season] I was unaware of it.”

The higher level pitching in advanced Single-A was definitely a contributing factor to Frawley’s dip in performance last season, but the eye issue surely did not help.

“I was swinging at pitches and missing them by a good two feet and did not know why, so I went to an eye doctor and got it squared away,” Frawley said. “It was a lot tougher than I thought it would be to get out of the bad habits that I created. I thought I would get the right prescription and then, boom, I would be back. I created some bad habits over those few months. It was frustrating because you want to help your team win in any way you can, but when you can’t see at the plate it is tough.”

Because Frawley’s eyes are still maturing, they keep changing. Until they stop changing he really cannot have corrective surgery because they could change again and he would then have to have the procedure again. In the meantime he is just making frequent eye appointments to try and keep up with his changing prescription as best as he can.

As a hitter the eyes are probably the most important tool. Without good vision it is hard to pick up the rotation of the ball. Frawley often saw the ball as a white mass coming at him, which made it difficult to read pitches.

“Everything is unclear and blurry,” Frawley said. “I wasn’t close to being able to recognize offspeed pitches. It was just a ball coming in so everything looked like a fastball and then it would break a foot and I would miss it by a lot.”

The vision issues even affected Frawley in the field.

“Pop ups were tough at night because the lights made it hazy,” Frawley said. “A ball would go up and I would catch the glare out of the eye. It was a mess. I was not able to see the hitters well so I was not able to get decent jumps out there. It was just an absolute mess on both sides of the ball; there is no other way to say it.”

With a new season on the horizon Frawley just wants to get back to the player he was in 2009 at short season Single-A Mahoning Valley and in 2010 at Low-A Lake County.

“I just want to get out of the bad habits and get back into what I have done my first few years in pro ball with a short swing,” Frawley said. “Just have a decent eye at the plate and try to get on base more. I am going to put a real emphasis this offseason on trying to build some endurance and strength so at the end of the season I can feel like I did toward the beginning of the season.”

Frawley has enjoyed a lot of team success in his three year career. In 2009 at Mahoning Valley they fell a game short of winning the NY-Penn League championship. In 2010 at Lake County they went through a memorable run in the playoffs to win the Midwest League championship. Last season at Kinston they made the playoffs the last weekend of the season but were ousted in the first round of the Carolina League playoffs.

The everyday grind each season is tough, especially in the minor leagues. But even with the ups and downs that baseball brings, Frawley would not trade it for anything right now.

“It has been a lot of fun,” Frawley said. “The experience over the last few years that we have had is unparalleled. [The season] is grueling, but I know I can speak for a lot of guys in that there is nothing else we would rather do. It is tough and it’s a long, long season, but if you can get to that ultimate goal of playing in the big leagues there is nothing better. It has definitely been one of the best experiences I have had.”

With last season now behind Frawley his focus this season is to be more consistent and show what he can really do. The eye issues may not be completely behind him, but he has a better handle on the issue so that it should no longer affect his play much in the future.

“[Last year] was definitely a long season, probably the longest of my life because it was so frustrating with all the problems I had,” Frawley said. “It will be good to go out there and get some at bats and show everyone the real hitter I am and not the numbers I put up [last] season.”

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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In defense of a dull offseason

Slowey not Splashy

Ho hum.  To the majority of the Cleveland Indians fan base, this has undoubtedly been a boring offseason.  Especially when the Tribe’s offseason is compared to that of other teams.

The Miami Marlins sign Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, while the Indians trade for a 38-year old Derek Lowe and his 5.05 ERA.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, while the Indians resign the perpetually broken down Grady Sizemore.

The Texas Rangers sign Yu Darvish, while the Indians invite a laundry list of “undervalued” talent to spring training.

The New York Yankees trade for Michael Pineda, while the Indians trade for Kevin Slowey.

And perhaps most galling for Tribe fans, the Detroit Tigers sign Prince Fielder, while the Indians counter with their own new first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

All of which have not exactly moved the excitement meter when it comes to the Indians’ 2012 season.

What follows, however, is a defense of the Tribe’s offseason.  Not because it is not frustrating to see the Indians fail to lay out the money necessary to obtain/retain premier baseball talent, but because in most of these cases, the Indians made the better decision to abstain from the pursuit of these players.

Reyes, Pujols, and Fielder come with long-term durability questions.  As the Tribe has unfortunately learned with Travis Hafner, locking up significant payroll with an injury prone player well into their mid-thirties can leave roster flexibility hamstrung.  While it could definitely be argued the Indians could have gotten creative and offered Fielder the same yearly average over three years had Scott Boras gone the short route, once it was clear he was pushing 8, 9, 10 years, it would have been a foolish pursuit on the Indians part, unless of course you’d like to replace one albatross with another one.

Buehrle and Wilson are both fine pitchers but not worth the prices they commanded on the open market and they are not that appreciatively better than what the Indians currently have on their staff, Slowey excluded.  It would have been nice if the Indians could have gotten in on the trade market for Pineda, Gio Gonzalez, or Mat Latos, but the Tribe blew the wad they would have had to get in on those transactions when they traded for Ubaldo Jimenez.  Yes, Jimenez has a few question marks, but if he is right he is as good if not better than any of them, at least in terms of 2012.

The Tribe’s choice of abstinence from pursuing the big-ticket items is actually in accordance with the general trend in Major League Baseball, and not just for the teams in the perceived smaller markets.  The Boston Red Sox signed Cody Ross to a 1-year, $3 million dollar contract to serve as a platoon player in right field.  That is the same contract the Tribe just gave to Kotchman to essentially serve as a platoon player at first base.  The Philadelphia Phillies are paying even less to Laynce Nix to serve as a super utility/platoon outfielder.  Just look around baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays have signed Jeff Keppinger and Luke Scott, the Colorado Rockies have stockpiled veteran low-cost options to field around their stars Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.  The Indians are no different; they’ve supplemented some cheaper veterans to compliment their very good young lineup.  They’ve also added a lot of minor league depth as insurance for the now-fragile Sizemore.

All of which does not exactly make for the splashiest of headlines, but the moves are in accordance with the moves of some of the smartest organizations in baseball.  It would be nice if the Indians would spend a little more money, but spending a lot of money would not have made a lot of sense this offseason.  Spending money will be imperative in the years to come, but for now, they’ve wisely refrained from offering a bunch of bad contracts.

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Don't be so weary of the Indians' lefty-laden lineup

Kotchman not the right-handed
option many were hoping for
(photo: MLB)

The talk of the Cleveland offseason, long before, really, has been a lack of right-handed hitters in the Indians' lineup in general, but especially a lack of power from the right side.

It is no secret that exactly zero of the team's projected regular position players are strictly right-handed, as only switch-hitters, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana, figure to be mainstays from the right side at all. Only a handful of minor league signings (Andy LaRoche, Jose Lopez and Ryan Spilborghs) and two minor trades (Aaron Cunningham and Russ Canzler) were made to try and replenish the deficiency. And with the recent addition of Casey Kotchman, another left-handed stick (with minimal power, to boot), the void seems to remain.

All of that being said, it has still become a slightly belabored point.

Why? The first reason is so simple that it's often forgotten. The majority of Major League pitchers are right-handed. Most days, the Indians' left-heavy lineup will have an advantage over the opposing team's starting pitcher, at least in theory.

Focusing specifically on the American League Central where the Indians will spend most of their time: 14 of the 20 projected starters in the division are righties. The Tigers will feature a completely right-handed rotation, while each of the other three teams expects to have three in theirs.

More importantly than those favorable odds is the idea that, even when facing left-handed pitching, the Indians will still put out a formidable lineup.

Aside from Cabrera and Santana, whom Indians fans already know to be impact forces from either side of the plate, Manny Acta will rely on his bench of perhaps nothing but right-handed bats. Let me preface this by saying that I don't necessarily agree with or believe that Jack Hannahan will be the team's primary third baseman and that Lonnie Chisenhall will start in Columbus, but it is a possibility, especially with this need for as many right-handed options off the bench as possible. Because Hannahan will almost certainly break camp with the team, it would essentially come down to Chisenhall and Jason Donald for the time being. Without turning this into a full-blown Opening Day roster song and dance, let us assume that the club's four backups will be Aaron Cunningham, Donald, Shelley Duncan and Lou Marson. Acta could utilize any of them in lineups against southpaws, and history says that he would be right to. While all of those histories are generally short, each of them has adequate (at worst) splits versus lefties.

Cunningham: .741 career on-base plus slugging (OPS) against lefties; .620 against righties
Donald: .886/.635
Duncan: .769/.743
Marson: .763/.529

And for good measure...

Cabrera: .785/.744
Santana: .882/.792

Two additional names that will be considered for spell jobs are Matt LaPorta and Ryan Spilborghs, but each of them has significant flaws in such a role. LaPorta, who will compete with Duncan as a backup first baseman/corner outfielder (along with Russ Canzler, who has but six big league plate appearances from which to look at), has been a reverse splits hitter up to this point in his career. Despite being a right-handed hitter, he hits right-handed pitching much more effectively, in terms of both power (26 of his 30 home runs) and percentages (OPS nearly 100 points higher). Spilborghs' deterrent from potentially being the fourth outfielder has nothing to do with his left and right splits, but his home and away splits. He has benefited from a career with the Rockies, accumulating an OPS almost 200 points higher at Coors Field (.862) than away from it (.679).

The bench bunch will not be perfect solutions to all of the Indians' left-on-left woes, but what they will do is provide alternatives and versatility on both sides of the ball.

Defensively against left-handed pitchers, Santana will move to first, while Marson catches. Cunningham's sole position is in the outfielder. Assuming that Santana is settled in at first, Duncan becomes an option in left field or as the occasional designated hitter. Donald could play at any number of positions, including in the outfield, providing a third possibility to relieve the all-lefty, injury-riddled starting group of Michael Brantley, Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo.

The concerns about this dependence on left-handed hitters are not without credence. Lineups need balance, and the earlier point about most pitchers being right-handed is not cut and dry. All bets are off in the later innings when bullpens become involved and it turns into a game of strategy and matchups, as most bullpens are equipped with two or even three left-handed relievers now.

At the end of the day, though, it doesn't matter - left or right. Nor does the perceived lack of power, necessarily. Being a productive Major League hitter consists of plenty more. The key for this young, often free-swinging Indians team will be thorough, disciplined at-bats, and ultimately, getting on base against either kind of pitcher.

In less than two months, the Indians will take the field against the White Sox, a first step towards a return to the postseason. Once they record the first three outs of the season, one of those six left-handed division starters, John Danks will be standing on the hill: Test number one.

Follow Kevin and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter: @KevinIPI.

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Five Prospects With The Most To Prove in 2012

Cord Phelps (Photo: IPI)

Being in the minor leagues is all about proving yourself, but for these five players, 2012 will be even more critical on their quest to proving that they belong in the Cleveland Indians' long-term plans.

Two weeks ago, I listed the five most exciting prospects for 2012.Continuing on with this theme, now I'll take a look at the five Tribe prospects with the most to prove in 2012. Whether they're on here because of injuries, poor performance or failure to live up to expectations, all five of these players need a big 2012 season to reestablish themselves as marquee, top-shelf prospects.


Cord Phelps, 2B, Columbus
In 163 games at the AAA level, Phelps has flat-out raked and justified his ranking as IPI's ninth best Tribe prospect going into 2011. His .303/.380/.498 slash line, .877 OPS, .381 wOBA (137 wRC+), 20 HR and 94 RBI more than justified his promotion over Jason Kipnis in early June. While those like me were begging for Kipnis at that point, it was hard to argue with promoting Phelps.

Unfortunately for Phelps and Tribe fans, his brief, 35 game major league stint was a disaster. Phelps had terrible offensive stats (.155/.241/.254 slash line, .494 OPS (39 OPS+), .231 wOBA (39 wRC+), -0.9 fWAR in 80 PA) and struggled defensively (five errors in only 75 chances). Phelps ended up back in AAA while Kipnis solidified his hold on the second base job later in the season.

While Phelps won't be able to prove himself at the major league level this year, he will need to impress as the everyday second baseman in Columbus in order to rebuild his stock. If he keeps producing at a high level in AAA, he'll get another shot in the majors. With the lack of middle-infield talent the Indians have in the higher levels of the minors, one injury will give Phelps his chance to prove himself again. He'll need to work hard this year to be prepared for that moment, whenever it comes.

Nick Weglarz, OF/DH, Akron
After top prospects Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall were promoted to the big league club and Alex White and Drew Pomeranz were traded to the Colorado Rockies, it would only make sense for IPI's number five prospect before the 2011 season, Nick Wegalrz, to move right on up to the top spot, right?

After a rough 2011 campaign that had him battling numerous injuries throughout the season, Weglarz will need to impress in 2012 in order to see AAA again, let alone make it to the majors. Weglarz's plate discipline and on-base abilities did not erode in 2011 (2011/pre-2011: 25.0/20.4 K%, 20.9/15.1 BB%, .360/.382 OBP), but his power disappeared. Before 2011, Weglarz owned a .455 SLG and had 23 HR and 87 RBI per 650 PA. In 2011, that dropped to a .306 SLG and 11 HR and 45 RBI per 650 PA.

For a player that does not rate well defensively at all, Weglarz needs to produce at a very high level with his bat in order to have any worth to the Indians. Hopefully Weglarz will be fully healthy in 2012 and get back to hitting for the power we had grown accustomed to seeing out of him.

Jason Knapp, RHP, Carolina (DL)
Considering that the non-Jason Knapp part of the package the Indians got in return for Cliff Lee holds a backup to marginal starting catcher (Lou Marson), a utility infielder (Jason Donald) and a middle of the rotation starter - if he comes back from Tommy John surgery the same guy (Carlos Carrasco), there are still a ton of expectations on Knapp's shoulders to become an ace.

Unfortunately, IPI's pre-2011 sixth best prospect has only logged 156.3 IP in his minor league career. He's been wildly impressive in that brief time (3.63 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 1.196 WHIP, 12.0 SO/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.93 SO:BB), but it's all for nothing if Knapp can't stay healthy.

The good news is that Knapp is still only 21 years old. It's certainly not a good sign when a player has had as many arm/shoulder/elbow problems as Knapp's had, but he's still got plenty of time to figure things out. Though it wouldn't be ideal, if Knapp could stay healthy as a bullpen guy, he has the stuff to be a major force. It's easy to write off Knapp right now, but he's still young and has time on his side. Maybe 2012 will be the year he stays healthy and starts moving up the minor league ladder.

Beau Mills, 1B, Columbus
As if a list like this could exist without Beau Mills on it. The 13th overall pick in the 2007 draft came into 2011 as a major disappointment. Being a first round first baseman and only owning a .267/.332/.434 slash line, .766 OPS, .346 wOBA (108 wRC+) and 18 HR and 100 RBI per 650 PA can do that. The RBI total looks nice, but attached to the rest of that line, there was no denying Mills had become a non-prospect.

While he still counts as a non-prospect going into 2012, in 2011, Mills finally looked like the guy the Indians thought they were getting when they drafted him. Between Akron and Columbus, he posted a .289/.347/.513 slash line, .860 OPS, .377 wOBA (133 wRC+) and 30 HR and 111 RBI per 650 PA in his 391 total PA. There are still holes in his game, but 2011 was certainly a step in the right direction for Mills.

Since this is Mills' age-25 season, it very well could be his make-or-break year. Between Matt LaPorta, Russ Canzler and Mills, the first baseman slot at AAA will be very competitive. Also considering the fluid situation the Tribe has at first base at the big league level, if Mills were to take the final step in his development, the first base job would be his for the taking. The Indians won't just give him the job, though; he'll have to hit out of his mind and force the Tribe's hand. It's unlikely Mills will finally make it to the majors and fulfill the promise he held as a first round pick in 2007, but stranger things have happened. You just never know in baseball.

LeVon Washington, OF, Lake County
LeVon Washington also made my five most exciting prospects in 2012 list because of his athleticism, but he also has a lot to prove in 2012. Headed into the 2011 season, Washington had numerous achievements and accomplishments heaped on him before he'd really played professional ball. He'd been drafted in the first round in 2009 by the Tampa Bay Rays, the second round in 2010 by the Indians, and had been named IPI's seventh best prospect. The sky was the limit for Washington.

Like many before him, however, the harsh reality of baseball sent Washington crashing to the ground. His .218/.331/.315 slash line, .647 OPS, .311 wOBA (93 wRC+), 7 HR, 37 RBI, 28 SB, 65 R per 650 PA at low-A Lake County was hardly cause for celebration. 2012 will likely see Washington repeating Lake County, hoping to reestablish himself as a top prospect.

There were good things that came out of 2011 for Washington. First, his 14.0 BB% is a good sign for someone with that kind of speed. If he could stop striking out so much (25.4 K%), he'd get on-base a lot more and be able to make things happen with his legs. Second, last year was only his age-19 season. If he were to catch fire this year and finish the year at Akron, he'd be well ahead of his development. There is still plenty of time for Washington. Third, 2011 seems to have been a wakeup call for Washington. Anyone following him on Twitter @L_wash can tell that. It seems that Washington now realizes that he can't skate by on raw ability anymore. If he's dedicated himself to working hard, it's possible he'll be bringing #WashTime throughout the Indians' minor league system this year.

Like I said earlier, being in the minor leagues is all about proving yourself at the level you're at so you can continue climbing the ladder toward the major leagues. If a player is in the minors, then they inherently still have something to prove. For Cord Phelps, Nick Weglarz, Jason Knapp, Beau Mills and LeVon Washington, however, there's a little extra they need to do in 2012. If these five prospects don't impress in 2012, they'll be left behind for the next hot wave of young ballplayers. It's on them to make themselves into can't-miss prospects again.
 

If you want to follow Jim Piascik on Twitter, he's @DarkestDiamond.

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Explaining Stats: Wins Above Replacement

WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, and replaced VORP, value over replacement player, as the go to stat for trying to figure out the overall value of a player. It is simply the number of wins a player should help his team win in comparison to what a AAA player would do if called up in place of them. The idea being that a AAA team in the majors would be historically bad winning less than 40 games.

The stat combines all of the aspects of a player including defense which is typically not a part of most stats. It also allows for the comparison of pitchers and hitters to see the value they mean to a team. On top of this it is a rather easy stat to read.

If there is some confusion though it's the idea that a positive number means a player is doing well. The average major league player would have a value of 2.0, so positive isn't always good and negative is extremely bad. Last year's highest player was Matt Kemp at a value of 10. The highest Indian was Justin Masterson with a value of 4.1. This stat is a great way to look at the overall value a player brings to their team and for the comparison of all players.

You would think I am insane for saying that Casey Kotchman will have a bigger impact on his team next year than Prince Fielder. Yet this stat allows you to see a bigger picture, Prince Fielder's WAR was 5.2 and he was signed to replace Victor Martinez whose WAR was 3.1. Casey Kotchman's WAR last year was 2.9, while the player he is replacing Matt LaPorta had a WAR of 0.2. In the end, Fielder is a net gain of 2.1 wins while Kotchman is a net gain of 2.7 wins. Sure Fielder on the Indians would be better than Kotchman, but when you look at it it is what the addition does for a specific team. Each team signed a first baseman, yet the Indians are expected to get over half a win more. For all these stats I used the baseball reference numbers for WAR.

So why is this not the stat in all of baseball?  It's easy to understand and allows for straight forward comparisons between all players except relievers who tend to post much lower values.  The problem is that it is not standardized. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are the main sources for the stat and each have a different way to devise a players' value as they end up with similar scores most of the time but not always. So if you ever see fWAR it stands for Fangraph's version and rWAR stands for Baseball Reference's version. I tend to use rWAR because I have been using Baseball Reference for so long.

So yes, it does have its problems but there is no debating its value. If you follow any baseball people, most comments on a newly signed player contain their WAR because how simple and inclusive it is. Given time it will be standardized, and one of the current ways will go the way of VORP. Even not standardized it is really just a plain way to show value, to compare and say this player's full package is an upgrade over this player. The future of stats is now and it's WAR, a stat so simple that anyone can understand and use.

For my next article in this series I want to let it be decided by the people who read and follow this series. Post what you want in the comments section and I will spend the next few columns focusing on those stats.

follow me on twitter at jeffipi

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Tribe Happenings: Are the Indians going up for sale?

If the Indians are for sale, who does Larry

Dolan sell the team to? (Photo: AP)

Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Indians notebook…

To sell or not to sell

First off, let me just be up front and note that before I get into any of this I am merely speculating. No one from SportsTime Ohio or the Indians has told me anything, I am simply just putting two and two together with some recent events surrounding the Indians.

That having been said, things are starting to get a little interesting with the Cleveland Indians of late. No, not because a new season is on the horizon, but because it looks like there may be some plans in motion to either sell the team or at least take a peek into the market to see who might be interested in buying the team.

Rumors came forth back in July that the Dolan ownership group was taking offers for SportsTime Ohio, their cable TV network and home of over 150 Indians television broadcasts a year. Not surprisingly those rumors have been denied, but where there is smoke there may be fire.

Suddenly in the past week I have been getting emails, texts and calls from all sorts of people with varying connections to me, and they all keep asking the same thing, “Are the Indians being put up for sale?”

I found it odd that with no knowledge of each other that all of these people would suddenly be asking such a question. Something may indeed be up, so here is a brief look at the situation to see if indeed the team could be up for sale.

From the sounds of things, the Dolan ownership may be putting out feelers to potential buyers. While it may not yet be public knowledge that the team is available for sale, the startup process to a long, convoluted process to sell the team may have already started quietly behind the scenes. The new CBA - which has drawn criticism for its unfairness to smaller market teams like the Indians - may be what finally pushed the Dolan ownership into considering offers for the team, and conceivably their cable TV network too.

The best evidence to support a possible looming sale of the Indians is their current payroll structure where not one single player has a guaranteed deal past this season. There are a few players that have club options for the 2013 season and there are some arbitration eligible players, but right now they have absolutely zero commitments in regard to salary for 2013. Nadda. With no long term monetary commitments it would certainly seem to make them more attractive to a potential buyer.

This may also explain what has been a strange offseason where the Indians have been very quiet on the free agent front and limited just about all contract discussions with players to a maximum of two years.

So who could be a potential suitor to buy the Indians? How about Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert?

In addition to the Cavaliers, Gilbert already owns the Lake Erie Monsters minor league hockey team and just recently purchased the arena football team the Cleveland Gladiators. With Quicken Loans Arena chock full of entertainment options between his three teams, he could look to continue to monopolize the sports market in the Cleveland area by purchasing the Indians.

One thing to remember is that before buying the Cavaliers back in 2005, Gilbert had tried to buy the Milwaukee Brewers, so interest in a Major League Baseball team is certainly there. With his new casino opening up later this year in downtown Cleveland, he could look at ways to use his sports teams to tie into it, and having a baseball team in town for 81 games a year might be inviting.

If there ever was an owner that would be a perfect fit for the Indians, it would be Gilbert. Not because he would spend lots of money – I have news for you, his spending will be based on team revenues just like it has with the Dolan’s – but because of the big shadow the Indians would get out from under with the Dolan ownership. I have often shared my feelings how I think Larry and Paul Dolan are misunderstood by the fan base, but Gilbert is a hero in this city right now, and with his money from Quicken Loans, expanding his Flash Seats setup to the Indians, and getting all the teams onto one big giant Cleveland sports network might be too good to be true.

Like I said, it is merely speculation, but with the rumors of SportsTime Ohio being for sale, the Indians very cost-conscious offseason, and Gilbert buying up sports teams in the Cleveland area like a kid in a candy store…anything can happen.

Finally, a first baseman

On Thursday the Indians came to a deal with free agent first baseman Casey Kotchman on a one year contract that will pay him $3 million in 2012. So ends their long offseason courtship of several first basemen, and while Kotchman may not be the sexiest pickup of those that were available this offseason he may end up as the best fit.

Kotchman, 28, played with the Tampa Bay Rays last season and finished 8th in the American League in hitting (.306) and 10th in on-base percentage (.378). He also had 24 doubles, 10 home runs, 48 RBI, and a .800 OPS in his 146 games played.

Last season Kotchman’s batting average, on-base percentage, and total number of games played were all career highs. It may be viewed that he simply had a career year last season, but he also had a very similar year – if not better – in 2007 when he hit .296 with 11 homers, 68 RBI, and a .840 OPS in 137 games. His numbers fell off a cliff from 2008-2010, but he apparently was having vision issues during that time and had a corrective vision procedure before last season. He conveniently responded with a very good season last year.

While a lot of people have been so fixated this offseason on adding a right-handed bat with power to the Indians lineup, one thing that has been greatly overlooked is the huge need for infield defense and a bat that can hit for average and limit strikeouts. That is exactly what Kotchman can do for the Indians this season.

Kotchman will not hit for much power, but what he will bring is exceptional defense at first base and an ability to consistently put the bat on the ball and limit strikeouts (2588 at bats, 289 strikeouts). He has all the pedigree as a former top prospect as for four years running from 2002-2005 he was a Top 25 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America when he was in the Angels’ system.

Kotchman will definitely help improve the Indians' infield defense on the right side, something that was an issue several times last season. Last year he finished the season with a .998 fielding percentage (2 errors in 1201 total chances), leading all Major League first basemen in that category for a fourth consecutive campaign (2008-11). His career .998 fielding percentage (11 errors in 6076 total chances) is the highest in Major League history for those with at least 700 career games at the position.

Even though Kotchman is yet another left-handed hitter, the Indians have the flexibility to sit him against left-handed pitchers and put Carlos Santana at first base when he needs a break from catching. This is a solid pick up, and even though it is not a headline maker he should help the Indians improve in several different areas next season.

Indians, Rays make a trade

On Tuesday the Indians and Tampa Bay Rays completed a small trade where infielder Russ Canzler was sent to the Indians in exchange for cash considerations. The Rays had designated him for assignment on January 27th, but the Indians were able to complete a deal and add him to the 40-man roster to the spot vacated by right-handed pitcher Fausto Carmona who was put on the restricted list last week.

Canzler, 25, was the MVP this past season of the International League at Triple-A Durham where he hit .314 with 40 doubles, 18 home runs, 83 RBI and .931 OPS in 131 games. His right-handed bat is interesting, but what probably attracted him to the Indians is his versatility as last season he appeared in 41 games in right field, 33 games in left field, 40 games at third base and 17 games at first.

Canzler has very little big league experience as he was added to the Major League roster and made his big league debut last September appearing in just three games (1-for-3, 1 RBI). He is a depth option and has some potential as a corner utility player. His defense is very questionable, which is why he was able to be picked up for nothing, and may be a lot like former Indian first base prospect Jordan Brown as a player that could hit but had too many limitations defensively.

Canzler has all three of his options remaining, so he should provide depth at several positions this year at Triple-A and in the big leagues, and he could end up being a good buy low pickup for the Indians.

LaPorta destined for AAA

With the signing of Kotchman, first baseman Matt LaPorta’s ticket has all but been punched to Triple-A Columbus to start next season. The only thing standing in the way of that ticket from being punched is if Kotchman were to get hurt this spring, which if that were to happen then it would open up the door for LaPorta or someone else to be the regular first baseman.

This is a good thing for LaPorta. His performance to date in the big leagues has been spotty and he has not developed at all the past few years. He may have actually regressed as a player. I believe LaPorta still has a chance to become something with the Indians, but I don't get this mantra by some folks that he has to play with the Indians this year. The guy needs tons of work and development, something which simply cannot be afforded at the big league level when a team is trying to win. It is different if a team is in a development year, but that is not the case this year.

LaPorta has one option left. Use it and send him to the minors where the focus is less on winning and all about development. This is really his last chance to get his swing right, his confidence up, and his consistency with both his offense and defense to what it is expected to be. At this time next year he will be out of options and then the Indians will be backed up against a wall to make a decision on him if he is still struggling. At least by sending him to Triple-A for a big chunk of the season they will know they tried.

In no way have I given up on him. I just believe with this being his last option year he needs to go to Triple-A and play every day in an environment where there is no pressure to win and the Indians can be patient to wait for the results to show. Plus, even if he starts the year in Columbus, there is a good chance he will be needed at some point this season because of injuries and performance to other players.

Sign on the dotted line

Indians left-handed reliever Rafael Perez agreed to terms on Friday to a one year $2.005 million contract for 2012 to avoid salary arbitration. He is still under club control in 2013 and is not eligible for free agency until after that season.

Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera remains the lone unsigned arbitration eligible player on the Indians roster and reportedly has a multi-year offer from the team on the table. He and the Indians are not expected to go to salary arbitration, so sometime early this coming week he will probably either accept the multi-year deal or just take a one year salary offer. Like with Perez, he is also under club control for the 2013 season and not eligible for free agency until after that season.

Parting Shots

As of this writing, the Indians have not yet announced the player to be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Casey Kotchman. … The Indians had agreed to terms with infielder Julio Lugo on a minor league contract over a week ago, but that deal has fell apart and he is no longer part of the Indians plans in 2012. … This is just a quick note to mention that my new book the 2012 Cleveland Indians Prospect Insider is nearing completion. The book is my annual offering that provides everything you need to know about the Indians farm system and then some, and I hope to have news on its availability very soon. I also plan to unveil a new redesign of my site sometime in the next week. … Lastly, enjoy Super Bowl Sunday. Hopefully your team wins, but most importantly good luck hitting on those squares at the end of each quarter!

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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Offseason Spotlight: Kyle Blair

Photo: Lianna Holub

We are about a month away from the opening of minor league camp as pitchers and catchers report March 5th and position players report March 9th.

One player looking forward to reporting is right-handed pitcher Kyle Blair as he is anxious to wipe the bad taste out of his mouth from a disappointing 2011 campaign. In 24 combined appearances (14 starts) between rookie level Arizona and Low-A Lake County he went 3-5 with a 5.16 ERA, and in 82.0 innings he allowed 81 hits, 7 home runs, 40 walks, and had 72 strikeouts.

“Obviously it was not what I expected,” Blair said about his season in a recent interview for the IPI. “I started off well and then things got a little shaky. It was kind of unexpected, though it was my first year with adapting to a lot of things and learning pro ball. I also had that injury for a while that I tried to play on which was not my best move. You live and learn and come back. Maybe the numbers were not as good as I wanted and the stuff was not as good as I wanted, but it is what it is and I learned a lot.”

Blair’s performance last year is a prime example of how stats can sometimes be deceiving. One look at his numbers and a casual observer with no context into his workouts, health, and development plan may just cast him aside as a failed prospect. But there was a lot more to his season last year that went on that had an effect on his performance.

“Oh yeah, there is a lot of stuff that goes on that people just don’t see,” Blair said.

Around the end of April in his fourth of fifth start for Lake County he started experiencing pain in his right knee. The pain gradually worsened with each start to the point where by mid-June he could not even stand on his right leg. He made the mistake of pitching almost a month and a half on the knee without really telling the Indians and their trainers what was going on.

“It was about my fourth start that I noticed something very little and it was not very comfortable,” Blair said. “I came out the next start and it kept getting worse and worse and worse, but I still felt like I could get through it. I had a couple of good starts with it and I felt it was not a big deal, and then it really started hurting and I was pretty much pitching on one leg. After the All Star break in that first start against Fort Wayne I was like ‘ok I can’t do this anymore’ and that is when [I was shut down.”

When Blair was finally shut down near the end of June the Indians performed a test on his right knee and found that he had a grade two MCL strain and a slight tear of the MCL. He had been pitching on it that way for about his last eight or nine starts up until he was shut down, and it was affecting his drive to the plate. His numbers bottomed out as a result.

“I had a rough month and a half where I was dealing with that knee issue,” Blair said. “It was not that bad, but it just kept getting worse and worse. I did rehab with it, stretched it out, and iced it every game and tried to pitch through it and obviously it did not work out very well.”

The numbers speak for themselves. Before the injury cropped up he made five starts in April and was 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA and in 24.0 innings allowed 20 hits, 6 walks, and had 18 strikeouts. When he came back from the injury in mid-August he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen the rest of the season. He made nine appearances in the bullpen and went 0-0 with a 1.89 ERA, and in 19.0 innings allowed 13 hits, 5 walks, and had 12 strikeouts.

So when he was healthy last year Blair made 14 appearances and had a 2.30 ERA, and totaled 43.0 innings where he allowed 33 hits, 11 earned runs, 11 walks, and had 30 strikeouts. When he pitched hurt he made ten appearances and had an 8.54 ERA, and totaled 39.0 innings where he allowed 48 hits, 37 earned runs, 29 walks, and had 42 strikeouts. There is no doubt the injury affected him as his command and stuff suffered and led to a high amount of walks and runs he otherwise may not have given up if he were healthy.

“I took those five weeks off in Arizona which was really good for me to go out there and rehab it and realize what I had and how to deal with it,” Blair said. “I came back and [threw] a lot more strikes and [threw] my fastball a lot more. I learned my lesson and it was a learning year for sure.”

With the knee issue out of the way and last season behind him, Blair needs to really hone in on his mechanics and fastball command this season. While rehabbing out in Arizona last year he got a head start on the mechanics as the Indians had him move from the right side of the rubber to the middle in order to help his fastball command to both lefties and righties and give him more plate to work with. He also worked on slowing his wind up down as he has a tendency to rush and lose his balance point.

But the big key to Blair’s success going forward is improving his fastball command.

“That’s been my thing from day one from signing is fastball command,” Blair said. “I started out the first month [last year] just basically throwing a lot of fastballs. I did really well with it and then just lost it when the knee thing came about. When I came back in August and was coming out of the pen it was just fastball, fastball, fastball. I was really working on it and it improved tremendously, and when I came back I only had a couple of walks which was awesome.”

In the offseason Blair went home to Coronado, California to spend time with his family and do some pitching clinics for youth baseball players and speak to the baseball team at Coronado High School. Last month he was expected to go to Tampa, Florida to go to the Saddlebrook Resort to train for the upcoming season.

“I’m from Los Gatos which is in Northern California and I used to work with kids in Little League there, but my parents moved down to Coronado,” Blair said. “I love helping out the kids because it is always nice to give back and know where you came from. It is just a good thing to do.”

With last season behind him Blair is ready for the new challenges that the 2012 season has in store for him. He fell short of his goals last season, and is working harder to get back to the pitcher he knows he can be and have a successful season this time around.

“I just want to get healthy and keep building on the stuff I learned [last] year,” Blair said. “I really want to work on my fastball command, and if I can build on what I did in the last few weeks of [last] season I think I will be in a good spot.”

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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Indians sign Kotchman

Casey Kotchman

The Cleveland Indians today announced that they have signed free agent first baseman Casey Kotchman to a one-year contract. He will earn $3 million in 2012 and there are incentives in his contract to earn more. The Indians have not yet announced the player that will be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Kotchman.

Kotchman, 28, played with the Tampa Bay Rays last season and finished 8th in the American League in hitting (.306) and 10th in on-base percentage (.378).  He also had 24 doubles, 10 home runs, 48 RBI, and a .800 OPS in his 146 games played. His batting average, on-base percentage, and games played were all career highs. In his 8-year career he is a .268 hitter with 59 HR, 332 RBI and .733 OPS, and where he really helps is his ability to limit strikeouts as he has just 289 strikeouts in 2588 career at bats. He is a former Baseball America MLB Top 25 Prospect for four straight years from 2002-2005 when he was in the Angels system.

Kotchman is a plus defender and should help improve the Indians' infield defense on the right side. Last year he finished the season with a .998 fielding percentage (2 errors in 1201 total chances), leading all Major League first basemen in that category for a fourth consecutive campaign (2008-11).  His career .998 fielding percentage (11 errors in 6076 total chances) is the highest in Major League history for those with at least 700 career games at the position.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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The can't miss kids

Matt LaPorta (Photo: AP)

These are the "can't miss kids". Players that are former members of the Top 100 Prospect club as named by Baseball America.  With over a thousand players in the minors every season, at one time these "can't miss kids" were considered the best 100 prospects going into that season and were thought to end up being at worst solid major leaguers.

Each player had a pedigree and now has a few flaws which have prevented them from being major leaguers. I am sure the hope for the Tribe is that things will finally click for one or more of these guys and they will pull a Ryan Ludwick and become a late in life All Star.

Here is a listing of five Indians' prospects that were once included in a Top 100 listing. My hope is to show why these players have not lived up to expectations and why they could still end up helping the Tribe at some point.

Thomas Neal - Outfielder

BA peak rank: 96

Flaws: power, declining production, injury

Thomas Neal burst on the scene with a great year in 2009 where in High-A he showed power, contact, and a solid glove. The problem is since he has advanced the power has evaporated, the average has dropped, and his walk to strike out ratio is 1:2. The upside for the Indians is that he should be a guy that is a major league back up at worst. The Indians acquired him for very little cost because he had a down year thanks to injuries. Even in his declined year at Double-A he still posted an OPS near .800.  He is a free swinger that does not walk much, but thanks to a solid glove and a right handed bat, he strikes me as a guy who could find a place on the Indians or else were as a 4^th outfielder.

Aaron Cunningham - Outfielder

BA peak rank: 55

Flaws: average, strike outs, lack of power

Cunningham’s peak rank came after a great year that he split between Double-A and Triple-A, which would have seemed to make him a sure bet. He could play all three outfield positions, posted good numbers, and demonstrated doubles power that people thought would develop into home run power. He basically has played extremely well at every level in the minors, but his success has failed to translate to the majors. In the majors he has posted a line of .231/.290/.375, but it should be noted this has only been through 355 at bats.  With his prospect pedigree it is surprising that he has never been given a full season to see if he can put it together. As for what he brings to the Tribe, he is a right-hander that has crushed lefties and he can play all three outfield spots which is important with Sizemore’s health issues. I think he has a great chance to make this team as a 4^th outfielder thanks to what he can do. I know a lot of people disliked this deal, but the Tribe got a great athlete that can hit lefties for a pair of six inning arms (which typically have zero trade value).

Nick Weglarz - Outfielder

BA peak rank: 58

Flaws: defense, injury, contact

Nick Weglarz for a long time has been one of the most interesting prospects in the Indians system. The reason was simply because he had a ton of raw power and has been the only major power prospect to come through the Indians system in awhile. Plus he had the bonus of an extremely advanced eye at a young age. He did strike out but his strike out rate typically was 1:1 with his walk rate. But injuries have derailed his once promising career. He just finished his 7^th year in the minors and most would have expected him to have made the majors two to three years ago. It’s hard to get in a groove when injuries keep occurring, and I am sure this has lead to some frustration which could have affected him last season. The decline in stats and the fact he actually spent a year at a lower level than the year before makes his chances seem grim unless he breaks out this year. There is a very good chance he could be out of the system by this time next year. His .179/.360/.303 line last year shows that he still has a good eye at the plate, but the power loss makes one wonder if injuries have robbed him of some of his power.

Andy LaRoche - Third Baseman

BA peak rank: 19

Flaws: everything

This might be a bit cruel as LaRoche was such a huge prospect, but it just hasn’t come together for him. At one point he was the top third base prospect in the entire game, but as we saw with Andy Marte this does not guarantee success. He does play a solid third base, but after one solid season with Pittsburgh where he posted a .731 OPS he has failed to ever come even close to those numbers again. In his time in the majors he has shown no home run power, a 1:1.8 strike out to walk rate, and a low batting average. I don’t think much is expected of him as not many guys would sign with a team that has two third basemen clearly blocking you no matter what you do unless you’re just looking for any job out there. He is the player on this list who might be considered the most talented, yet he has the least chance of helping the Tribe this year and going forward.

Matt LaPorta - First Baseman

BA Peak: 23

Flaws: eye, defense, consistency

Matt LaPorta is one of the more hotly debated players in Cleveland. A lot of people still believe in him at first base, but as I write this the Indians have signed Casey Kotchman (my quick analysis is this is a good signing). This signing shows me there is very little support in the organization for LaPorta as his lack of consistency will be the reason he will be ticketed for Triple-A. He posted a .719 OPS last year, which is not bad. He hardly ever takes a walk but his .299 OBP was still several points above Mark Trumbo, a player many Indians fans wanted the Tribe to get (yes, that's right, LaPorta makes less outs than Trumbo). When you look at his power I think LaPorta could easily project for 17-20 home runs with 35-40 doubles, and while his numbers are solid they just don’t impress for first base. Add in the fact he will look dazed for three weeks, then good for two weeks, and so on. If he was a better defender this might not matter because as they say defense never slumps, but the below average defense mixed with his inconsistency means he could be ticketed for Triple-A for a long time this year. The hope is that he can gain consistency this year and get back to his days in the minors where he still didn’t walk but he also didn’t strike out. If he can do this, then he is a prime candidate to take over as DH after Pronk leaves next season.

The Tribe has had success with this approach in the past with relief arms where they grabbed a bunch of tarnished gems and hoped for them to reestablish value. As this season goes on, some of these players will be counted on to help the Tribe in their quest for the playoffs, so the hope as fans is that at least one of these guys will be able to turn themselves into at worst a league average player.

If I were to bet on one player to do this it would be Matt LaPorta. This might surprise some, but his ability to control the strike zone - which he showed in the minors - is a skill that typically forecasts a degree of future success. Add in that he has shown a degree of success in the majors, then he really only needs some tweaks to go from a slightly below average player to a guy who can be the right handed bat this team is desperate for, and was the reason the Indians acquired him in the first place.

Follow me on twitter @jeffipi

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A new IPI is coming

Okay, as I have been mentioning over the past several months, things are about to change in a big way with the IPI. I had planned on making this change a few months ago, but wanted to make sure it was done right and wanted to take the time to research this new venture I would be getting myself into.

Sometime in the next week the Indians Prospect Insider will be getting a makeover and moving from a site hosted on a blog network (Google’s Blogspot) to an independently hosted website. The site address will stay the same and the site may look quite familiar, but the site has been rebuilt by an actual web designer and will have some cool new features and a new look to it.

This change in host and the recreation of the site was necessitated by the site now going to a premium platform. Many articles on the site – the majority actually – will still be “free” so to speak, but now several articles with inside information, scouting reports, player news, and so on will be hidden behind a pay door and be available only to subscribers.

This was a tough decision and something I had contemplated for years. I had been balancing life between this site as a glorified hobby and a real full time job in the business world. Over time this hobby turned into a job with full time hours of its own – though with minimal pay – and the boundaries between my real job and this site began to overlap.

After what I went through last spring with my kidney cancer diagnosis and the time I had to reflect on things I realized I was overextending myself and needed to either pull the plug on this baseball gig or dive into it full time. When I thought about it more I realized that this is my passion and this is where I want to be. So, I decided to leave the business world last fall and focus on this baseball venture full time. That meant I would need to be creative in finding ways to support myself and my family in order to keep doing this.

I have been contacted by numerous media outlets over the years and very recently to bring the IPI to their site and take over content manager duties, but I wanted to remain independent and see if I can do this on my own first. This is where the new premium membership comes into play.

I understand that for many this will be an immediate turn off and I may lose some readers because of this decision. I will be sorry to see that happen, but I believe in my work and my hope is that many people will find it acceptable to pay the $2-3 a month for a lot of firsthand information that I provide that I believe is informative, accurate, and well researched.

I have not decided on a cost structure yet, but I do not expect an annual membership to cost more than $29.99 ($2.50 a month). There will also be a monthly option as well, though of course will cost more over 12 months than a regular annual subscription. And again, a lot of articles will still be able to be read without a subscription.

With this new venture I have a lot of great ideas and things I want to focus on now that I am doing this full time. I am already working on a weekly web TV show that will be produced in-house, a weekly/monthly radar report with radar gun readings for pitchers I saw that week/month, more specific team coverage with the addition of more writers and site written game recaps, a site scoreboard, an IPI app for the phone, player guest blogs, and lots more. I'll be going to a lot more games, talking to more scouts, and many other things as well. I am also toying with the idea of starting up a Reds Prospect Insider site to complement this one (it would be non-premium).

If you have any thoughts you would like to share on this, please feel free to provide them in the comments section below or by emailing me at tlastoria@indiansprospecinsider.com. I am open to any and all suggestions whether good or bad.

Moving on...

The hope is to have the new site go live on Monday, which is also when the new 2012 Top 50 Indians Prospect countdown will conveniently begin. I have been holding off on that in order to align it with the new site launch.

In addition to that, the new 2012 Cleveland Indians Prospect Insider book is nearing completion. The book will feature scouting reports and player profiles for over 180 players in the Cleveland Indians’ farm system, and have a report written for EVERY SINGLE PLAYER that played stateside last year. Those familiar with the book know there will be lots of other goodies in it as well with tool grades, charts, reference material and lots more. I will share more on the book availability hopefully sometime late next week.

Thanks again for the support and for being loyal readers, and I hope you will join me in the next chapter of the IPI.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI.

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Indians' Infatuation with Yoenis Cespedes?

Yoennis Cespedes (Photo: AP)

Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Bieber have more in common than you may think...

Huh?

Well, both were ‘discovered’ by YouTube and became instant viral icons. If you have been M.I.A. of late, you can see the showcase and the encore of the Cespedes scouting satire here. Bieber was signed by musician Usher while Cespedes is rumored to ink with one of six potential MLB clubs. Though the YouTube video made “El Talento” an international phenomenon, scouts have long been waiting on the Cuban to defect to the States as he’s been considered one of their finest talents for several years now.

Next, both of these pop culture icons (in their own right) have incredible marketing teams. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you can’t deny the power of their marketing: Bieber’s is self-explanatory while Cespedes’ majestic promo video has been labeled as the ‘greatest scouting video of all time’ among many in the baseball community.  He has single handedly hushed conversations about other top Cuban prospects—some of whom may have even higher ceilings than Cespedes—thanks in large part to his super fame from these brandish videos.

Fortunately for the world, that’s where the similarities conclude...

Cleveland is one of the six teams “very interested” in Cespedes.

The Indians’ outfield needs include (but are not limited to):
-A right handed hitting power bat
-Defense
-Speed
-Outfield versatility
-Youth

What am I missing? If the Indians’ marketing department is looking for some big screen entertainment in-between-innings, Cespedes looks to fill in there, too. Cespedes has got all those on his side and Cleveland would appear a fine fit.

At 26 years old, he’d fit both the short and long term plans for the Tribe.  The YouTube sensation is a centerfielder at the moment, though he can plausibly shift to either of the corners.  With Sizemore’s contract expiring at the end of 2012, Cespedes could slide to center at season’s end, or even spell Sizemore there in 2012.

In 2011, Cespedes hit a corrupt .333/.424/.667 in the Cuban League—corrupt based less on his government and more on the fact that the Cuban batting numbers trend on the barbaric side.  Despite that, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldsteins suggests many scouts still rate Cespedes’ power as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale.  While he projects to be just an average hitter at this stage, he still offers the almighty five-tool player tag with good defensive abilities and speed included. The Cuban defector bombarded international pitching in the 2009 World Baseball Classic as he hit .458/.480/1.000 over Cuba’s six games.  It’s no reason why they’ve tagged him “La Potencia.”

Cespedes’ potential is seemingly infinite and he could become a real impact player in the majors. With no centerfield-ready options on the farm with tremendous upside, signing Cespedes would fill a premium position for years to come and provide one of the finest up the middle trios in Santana-Lindor-Cespedes in the future.

Obviously, the major league friction between the Tribe and Cespedes will be about the Cuban Pesos Cespedes is seeking; the asking price for Cespedes ranges from the Aroldis Chapman deal of $30.25M over six years to even more fruitful figures.  The Rangers signed fellow Cuban centerfielder, Leonys Martin, to a five year, $15.5M deal a year ago and though Martin is three years younger (presumably), he is considered a few levels below Cespedes’ ability, yet still got a big time contract.

Then again, Cleveland has been reserved all offseason when it comes to free agency (beyond passing out minor league contracts and spring invites like Halloween candy) and no one expected the other Ohio squad to sign the last Cuban star, Aroldis Chapman, two winters ago.  If the Indians want to counter the Tigers — who are also still reportedly in on Cespedes according to ESPN’s Jim Bowden — they’ll have to pull the trigger on a high risk-high reward move like this. Antonetti showed he’s willing and able to with the Jimenez trade, so why not go one step further?  Cespedes would instantly supplant Francisco Lindor as the team’s top prospect and would (again, presumably) be MLB ready.

Last Monday, Cuba’s newest missile was granted free agency in MLB with the Indians, Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles all reportedly in on El Talento.

Clearly, Cespedes is a physical specimen and can be a major league threat, but how sure are we that he’s worth the money?  It feels like every player out of Cuba is more highly hyped than the last one, from Orlando Hernandez to Jose Contreras to Kendrys Morales to Alexei Ramirez to Aroldis Chapman.  While this quintet has had success ranging from mediocre to substantial in the majors, the learning curve is always the greatest variable between the Cuban leagues and the majors.  Just ask first baseman Leslie Anderson, Tampa Bay’s very own highly touted Cuban import whose career parallels that of Michael Aubrey more so than Kendrys Morales.

For comparison’s sake, let’s compare two of the finer Cuban hitters in MLB, Kendrys Morales’ and Alexei Ramirez, and compare their Cuban stats with their ML stats:

Courtesy BeisbolCubano:

Ramirez hit to a tune of .332/.394/.503 in the Cuban League over six seasons.
He broke into the majors at age 26, and since ’08, has hit .279/.323/.421 in the bigs.

Morales, in two full seasons at age 19 and 20, hit .358/.445/.593 in the Cuban leagues.
He broke into the majors at age 23, and since ’06, has hit .284/.336/.502 in the bigs.

So what does this small sample size suggest? Cespedes won’t hit to the robust tune he did in the Cuban league, but we already knew that.  And though its surely merited to a player's skill level, the track record suggests many of the Cuban players take 2-3 years to develop in the majors despite their age.  Moreover, they often take longer to adjust their plate discipline and tend to hone low OBP’s—Alexei Ramirez walked a poultry 18 times in his rookie season (though a respectable 51 times in ’11).

With that said, Cespedes must be handled with care like any prospect; there is a possibility that Cespedes would be sent down to the minors and won’t be as refined a product as his outlandish advertisements suggest.  Much to the curiosity of baseball scouts, Cespedes participated in winter ball and scuffled as he went batted .145 (5-35) with 10 K’s and a homer in a brief but questionable stint (as he couldn't feasibly 'improve' his stock).

This further begs the question, would he be able to help the Indians in ’12 and ’13, their two primed campaigns? The aforementioned is posed as a rhetorical question and with upwards of $35 million dependent on an even more indefinite answer, it certainly does not match the conservative approach the Tribe typically has taken in past seasons.

The other potential worry on Cespedes is his age.  As the Tribe learned with Fausto “Roberto Heredia Hernandez” Carmona, you can never be certain of these things, especially when it comes to a country like Cuba with such a poor government and documentation.  If the Indians find out Cespedes is 29 instead of 26, it really would make a world of difference in their long term investment in the player.  At 26, Cespedes figures to be near his physical peak, but his tools should still develop at the major league level and his useful life is three years longer than that of a 29 year old.

Last, but likely not least, I personally see a potential in Cespedes' size.  While he’s clearly a physical beast, to me, he merely resembles a 28-year old Andruw Jones.  What happened to Jones over time?  He accumulated a fashion for overeating and eventually ate himself out of centerfield and into a permanent bench role.  It’s unfair to compare Cespedes to Jones, but from the look and sound of things—a 6’0, 215 lb strong centerfielder with power—I can’t help but parallel the two, especially if the Indians don’t sign him.

At the increasing rate north of $35 million, there’s a fat chance the Indians make a realistic offer to Cespedes especially with wealthier bidders in the auction.  But, if they are able to sign Cespedes, they instantly boost their outfield and offense in one move which is more than they can say with the marginal minor league signings sprinkled over the offseason.

With the Tigers signing Prince Fielder along with the migration of major star power to the American League (Pujols, Darvish, etc.), now may be the time for the Indians to make a move to not only acquire a potential impact player, but also take away the competitive edge another team could gain with Cespedes. A move for the sake of a move isn't the right rationale, but with a real 'winning window' of just two years, desperate times call for desperate measures.  Unfortunately, desperation can't resolve the financial constraint the Indians are in and thus makes it very unlikely the Tribe can invest in a risk this rich.

One thing we’ve learned through the Yoenis Cespedes experience is if Kevin Youkilis was deemed ‘the greek god of walks,’ then surely, Cespedes must be the greek god of (showboat) scouting videos.

Like any top prospect, we’ll simply have to wait and see if La Potencia’s showcase videos are pure propaganda or the foreshadowing movie trailer of the next big star. Cespedes hopes to finish his trilogy of ‘showcase’ videos with his third video this spring, being that it will be most important and telling of all: facing live major league pitching.

Follow Sean on Twitter @SMahon2Go for various Indians' musings and mentions.

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