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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Herrmann Living A Dream In The Minors


This is an article from September 2007, but with Herrmann being Rule 5 eligible I thought some who missed it on TheClevelandFan.com the first time around may be interested in it. In the coming weeks, I'll continue to post several more of these older articles that were written before this blog began a year ago.

Behind door number one you have an Ivy League education with a degree in economics, and a job lined up out of college to make over $100,000 a year. Behind door number two, you have a longshot professional baseball career as an undrafted free agent where you make what amounts to peanuts, live in small apartments with several other players, eat bad food daily, and endure long, uncomfortable bus rides from city to city.

So, given those two scenarios, you would most likely opt for door number one right?

Not Kinston right-handed pitcher Frank Herrmann. Herrmann is a Harvard graduate with a degree in economics where he had several well-paying jobs lined up for him upon graduation. In lieu of a business career that is now in a holding pattern, Herrmann opted for the dream of a baseball career and now is one of the more promising young pitchers in the Indians system.

"For me it is a no-brainer," said Herrmann. "I have roommates who are working in New York City doing investment banking making over $100,000. And, I have other guys who are taking two years off and traveling around Europe. I think I kind of got the in-between where I am getting to do something and pursue a dream and at the same time still have fun and travel around. First and foremost I am in this to try and make it to the major leagues, absolutely. I mean, if you can do that why wouldn't you? I think it is the best job in the world. I am only 23 right now, and I won't be 24 until May 30th next year so I have plenty of time to sit in a cubicle or do whatever they want so I am not in a rush. I'll play as long as they will let me."

Maybe Herrmann made the right choice, as he put up a solid season in Kinston this year going 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 26 starts, logging 146 innings and allowing 163 hits and 28 walks while striking out 88. The solid season in Kinston piggybacks a good debut season for him in Lake County last year when he went 4-6 with a 3.90 ERA in 26 starts, logging 122.1 innings and allowing 122 hits and 47 walks while striking out 89. Looking back on his season, Herrmann feels he put forth a good effort.

"You know, it [went] well," said Herrmann. "I was happy to be here and be a starter at the beginning of the season, and I just wanted to throw as many innings as I can and I've reached new heights with that. I made the all-star team which was good. I had an up and down second half where I had some of my best games and worst games. I [tried] to finish up strong and be as consistent as I can and get deep into games."

Herrmann was actually more heavily recruited coming out of high school to play football. He played quarterback and free safety in football, and schools like Cincinnati, Rutgers, and a couple of the Ivy League and Patriot League schools like Lehigh recruited him. At Harvard, Herrmann was supposed to play both football and baseball, but ended up just playing baseball because of the demands academically.

Even though Herrmann was not heavily scouted in college, at times he found himself wondering "what could be" and if he would have a chance to play professionally. After a stretch of dominant performances in the middle of his junior season the possibility of taking his craft to another level and succeeding started to seem more and more like a possibility.

"My junior year I had a stretch where I had a perfect game through the sixth inning and I ended up throwing a one hitter against Cornell, and the next week I threw a two-hit shutout against Yale," said Herrmann. "So I kind of got rolling and I started wondering 'what if I was at a different school, what if I got a chance at working on pitching all the time without the hitting and the school work?' I was intrigued by the possibility, but it was never something like 'this is going to happen.'"

When the 2005 First Year Player Draft came and went, Herrmann did not receive a phone call from anyone. However, later that summer Herrmann ended up signing with the Indians as an undrafted free agent. Playing at an Ivy League school, you do not get much recognition from scouts, so Herrmann never really thought he would be considered for the draft, but still often dreamed of being picked up by a major league team. After going out on a whim to play in the Hawaii Summer League, an Indians scout (Don Lyle) noticed him and signed Herrmann shortly after.

"At Harvard we didn't have many scouts there as it wasn't a baseball factory," recalled Herrmann. "It wasn't as if I went to LSU or some school on the West Coast where guys get talked about all the time. There is a different focus at Harvard, so it wasn't necessarily something that was at the forefront of all of my discussions. So, I wasn't disappointed, I thought I maybe had a shot, but I was hurt a little bit my junior year as I had some bicep tendonitis. I was shutdown when we went down to Florida to play, which was an opportunity I maybe would have been seen."

"Our Ivy League season is really short where we play two doubleheaders on Saturday and Sunday, so it is a shorter season, so you only get like ten starts and I only threw something like 65-70 innings. I was going to do an investment banking job in Charlotte actually, and I found out about this Hawaii Summer League and our assistant coach was signing guys, so I said I would love to go live out in Hawaii for six weeks for free. I mean who wouldn't? And I started pitching and felt strong over there, throwing harder and pitching well, and I think it helped being away from school and having baseball as the focus. There was an Indians scout there, West Coast scout Don Lyle, who signed about four other guys in the locker room. He signed me, and worked out the school deal. The sticking point was to allow me to go back to school two consecutive falls rather than Instructional League [so I could finish my degree]. So I did that, and I just wanted to play baseball as I didn't mind not being captain my senior year or missing my season."

This is not the only time the Indians have dipped into the Ivy League to nab a pitching prospect as an undrafted free agent. They did the same thing last year with right-hander Erik Stiller out of Princeton. One has to think this is not merely coincidence, as the Indians of late have made some popular undrafted free agent signings with guys considered to have high aptitude, going all the way back to outfielder Brian Barton in 2004 when he came out of Miami University with a major in aerospace engineering.

Also, several of the Indians front office personnel went to Ivy League schools and played sports there. General Manager Mark Shapiro played football at Princeton, and Director of Baseball Operations Mike Chernoff was the team captain and shortstop at Princeton. So, when it comes to playing sports in the Ivy League and still adhering to the demands academically, the Indians know full well how difficult it is to be a non-scholarship student athlete In the Ivy League.

"I don't know for sure, but it could be 'hey these guys are pretty good players too so let's give them a shot'," said Herrmann. "Maybe they feel that the players have a high aptitude and can makeup for a lack of experience they didn't get while playing at a big time school. That very well could be a part of it, and it could be a coincidence too. But, look at some of the guys they drafted too, as you have Jensen Lewis who went to Vanderbilt and some other guys from good schools. It could be an underlying factor."

Since coming into the Indians organization, Herrmann's biggest strength has been his ability to throw strikes. If any pitcher can consistently throw strikes, that guy will make a lot of fans in the front office as they preach a pitch-to-contact philosophy. You'll also make fellow esteemed writer Steve Buffum happy as well, as he likes guys who throw strikes. Of course, in addition to throwing strikes you have to have some ability, otherwise you are just a batting practice pitcher.

"I think my biggest strength is my ability to throw strikes," said Herrmann when asked to assess his abilities. "I haven't walked a lot of guys this year, so I have been able to keep myself out of trouble and command the ball a little bit. So, I put the pressure on the hitters by throwing strikes. Knock on wood I have been healthy, and that may be another one of my strengths is durability. Durability and getting stronger as the year has gone on are things I am proud of."

Herrmann does not overpower hitters, as his fastball sits in the low 90s, and he does not have outstanding secondary stuff. He is a command-control guy, and relies on his intelligence as a pitcher and his command in getting hitters out.

"Usually I am 88-92 MPH with the fastball, and I'll touch 93," said Herrmann. "Last year I touched 94 a couple times. I changed my breaking ball as I used to throw a slider and curve, and now I am working on an in-between pitch that is about an 80 MPH breaking ball. The thing that is going to separate me from being a long term bullpen guy or staying a starter - and I want to stay a starter - is going to be the focus of my offseason in working on that pitch. I also throw a changeup that I feel more comfortable throwing to lefties because of its movement. The other thing I am working on is being to throw it to righties, the right-on-right changeup stuff. I have been focusing more lately in throwing my two-seam fastball in to righties to get them off the plate. This year I fell into the pattern of throwing fastballs away predominantly. Being that there are only eight teams in the league, guys started to catch on and I had to make adjustments."

One of the hardest things for a starting pitcher to do is to keep mentally sharp between starts. As fans, we often do not think about this, but of a teams 140 games a starting pitcher maybe pitches in 27 of them, which means the other 112 games he does not play and is simply an observer.

"I sit in the dugout and eat a lot of sunflower seeds and chew a lot of gum," joked Herrmann when asked what he does the day after a start. "I run poles and lift, do bucket for batting practice which is the worst part of the day because as guys throw it in you walk around picking up balls. It is tough because if you have that bad start you have to sit there and mull it over for four days. It is like playing football where if you have a bad game you have a hell week of practice and then play a game a week later, where if you are a baseball position player and go 0-for-4 with four strikeouts at the plate you can go 3-for-4 with two doubles and a home run the next night. It's a little more pressure because out of 140 games you are only out there about 27 times."

Still, there is a routine for starters to follow on their off-days. It can get repetitive and boring for many, but to move up another level and ultimately make it to the big leagues what happens during those off-days is just as important as what happens on the days that they pitch. Adjustments can be made during bullpen sessions in-between starts where recommendations from the pitching coach or a pitching coordinator can be put into practice, and starters also have the opportunity to workout and chart games.

"Basically, it is just body maintenance where you run and lift and do a lot of stretching," said Herrmann when asked about what he does during his four off-days. "The second day is your bullpen day where I throw 35 pitches and do a shoulder program. The third day you lift again, a little bit lighter and do different things, and do some more running with half poles or sprints. On the fourth day, which is the day before your next start, is the day I will come in the latest and just relax. That day is light catch and light sprints at 20 yards, about ten of them. That's the day you really watch the game more and get in tune. You watch pitch-by-pitch and figure out what you will throw, and you watch the hitters more."

After playing in Lake County last year, and experiencing a full season in Kinston this year, Herrmann notes that the difference is largely in the area and setup of the facility. As a player, he welcomes the isolated atmosphere that Kinston provides, as he can better concentrate on what he needs to do to improve.

"Both places have their good things," said Herrmann. "A lot of people give Kinston a hard time, but I love it here. It is just that you are focused on baseball. I come to the park and I am excited to come early because there is not much else to do, and I am here and I go home and I just hang out in my apartment. As far as baseball goes, I feel physically better this year and a lot more focused. There are a lot more distractions in Lake County, and I can't imagine playing in Myrtle Beach as compared to here with the temptations and that kind of stuff. They take good care of us here too, the field is phenomenal, the front office does a great job, Robbie (Robert Smeraldo, Clubhouse Manager) does a great job. The focus is on baseball here, and you have a loyal fanbase."

Typically, as starting pitchers reach Kinston, they reach a decision-making point for the organization where they mull over whether a pitcher should remain a starter or be converted to a reliever. While anything can happen between now and spring training next year, it looks like Herrmann will stick in the rotation as he looks strong on the mound and is a potential innings eater down the road. Also, Herrmann has never pitched out of the bullpen, and knows what he has to do to continue to get better to stay in the rotation.

"The things that will separate you are the small things like fielding your position and holding runners," said Herrmann. "I think I am a pretty good defender, but it is something I can definitely work on. I think I am sometimes too quick to the plate which can lead to maybe leaving the ball up in the zone. Those are the things which ultimately will separate you because a lot of righties throw 88-92, so you have to have some intangibles that separate you."

With Herrmann's season in Kinston done, he looks forward to potentially starting next season at Double-A Akron. It is not known whether or not he will start the year in Akron or in the bullpen or starting rotation, but all signs point to him making an address change to Akron to start the year and staying in the starting rotation.

"Absolutely, as in any job you want to see that upward mobility," said Herrmann. "I hope that I am fortunate enough to start in Akron next year. I have seen what a lot of guys have done where they have used Double-A as a springboard. Anything can happen from there, as it is a make or break thing. I've seen some guys start there this year and go down who had good years last year, and guys who had okay years last year now in the big leagues making an impact."

With the offseason now here, Herrmann is currently taking some time off to relax before starting back up with the throwing in December to get prepared for the 2008 minor league season. But, even while he is done playing, he still finds himself thinking through game situations in his head.

"When you play baseball for a job it is amazing what you do," said Herrmann. "Everything you do like when I am driving a car or lying down to fall asleep at night, I am thinking about making pitches in my head. You are always thinking about it no matter what you do. It is your job and it is the game that I love. I think there will be a lot of mental conditioning going on until December when I start throwing again. I'll probably start working out and lifting again in October."

Yes, not only does Herrmann get to play the game he loves professionally, but he is also living his dream.
Photo courtesy of Ken Carr

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Jeff Stevens on Smoke Signals tonight!

With Halloween just two days away, we have a little "treat" for everyone tonight in a special edition of Smoke Signals which airs tonight Wednesday 10/29 at 9:30 p.m. ET. Stevens will be calling in around 10pm, and as always we will have a candid conversation with yet another player in the Indians player development system.

The show was moved up from Thursday to tonight because of some Halloween obligations (um, like our annual pumpkin carving on Halloween Eve!). In addition to talking wiht Stevens, Paul and I will be talking Tribe baseball and will mostly focus on the bullpen seeing how Stevens will be a guest on the show. Stevens is a pretty upfront and honest guy, so expect questions pertaining to his good and bad experiences in the Olympics and the whole Brandon Phillips thing as well as what he is up to this offseason and more. Here is the link:

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/TheClevelandFan/2008/10/30/Smoke-Signals-The-Cleveland-Fan-Live

Give us a listen and give us a call if you want at 646-716-8012.

Winter League Wednesday Round-up

Arizona Fall League

You saw in our Arizona Fall League update yesterday how Indians prospects are fairing in the league. Let's just refresh your memory with their overall numbers for the Winter season.

Player Updates: -

LHP Chuck Lofgren - 6G, 5.2IP, 15H, 25R, 18ER, 10BB, 5K, 28.59ERA

RHP Erik Stiller - 6G, 7.1IP, 16H, 19R, 12ER, 3BB, 7K, 14.73ERA

RHP Josh Tomlin - 4G, 10IP, 23H, 17R, 14ER, 2BB, 10K, 12.60ERA

RHP Neil Wagner - 6G, 8IP, 8H, 7R, 6ER, 7BB, 3K, 6.75ERA

3B Wes Hodges - 12G, .385(20-for-52)/.407/.712/1.119, 5 2B, 4HR, 17RBI

1B Beau Mills - 8G, .226(7-for-31)/.333/.452/.785, 2B, 2HR, 3RBI

INF Josh Rodriguez - 10G, .143(5-for-35)/.231/.200/.431, 2 2B, 3RBI

OF Stephen Head - 4G, .375(3-for-8)/.500/.500/1.000, 2B, RBI


Hawaii Winter League

Since the last update, the North Shore Honu have gone 0-1 to run their overall record to 8-14 for the season.

Player Updates (10/26 - 10/28): -

LHP Matt Meyer - Worked 0.2 scoreless innings on 10/28 to lower his season ERA to 7.45 (9.2IP, 14H, 11R, 8ER, 7BB, 15K).

LHP Shawn Nottingham - Worked 2 scoreless innings on 10/28 and after a shaky start to the Winter League season now holds a 3.46ERA in 9 games (13IP, 10H, 8R, 5ER, 6BB, 18K).

LHP Heath Taylor - Not appeared since 10/17 and his ERA still holds at 2.19 in 4 games.

C Adam Davis - Not appeared since the last update and his overall line still sits at .100(3-for-30)/.325/.167/.492 for the season.

3B Dustin Realini - Was 1-for-2 on 10/28 to give him a .185(3-for-27)/.241/.185/.427 line in 8 games.

INF Ron Rivas - Has not appeared since the last update and his line still sits at .261(6-for-23)/.320/.304/.624 in 8 games.

OF Matt McBride - McBride was 2-for-5 with his 3rd Hawaii HR on 10/28 to improve his numbers to .284(23-for-81)/.381/.469/.851, 6 2B, 3HR, 16RBI in 21 games.

LHP Kaimi Mead is still pitching for Holnolulu Sharks and since the last update worked 1.1 scoreless innings on 10/28 to lower his overall numbers to a 2.03ERA in 9 games (13.1IP, 9H, 7R, 3ER, 7BB, 12K).


Caribbean Winter Leagues

Player Updates (overall numbers): -

VENEZUELAN WINTER LEAGUE

RHP Randy Newsom - 2G, 0.2IP, 5H, 6R/ER, 2BB, 0K, 81.00ERA

OF Matt LaPorta - 11G, .191(9-for-47)/.240/.383/.623, 3 2B, 2HR, 9RBI

INF Asdrubal Cabrera - Has not yet played.

OF Franklin Gutierrez - Has not yet played.

RHP Edward Mujica - Has not yet played.

INF Nuiman Romero - Has not yet played.

INF Karexon Sanchez - Has not yet played.

RHP Hector Rondon - Has not yet played.

RHP Jeanmar Gomez - Has not yet played.


DOMINICAN WINTER LEAGUE

1B Jordan Brown - 5G, .286(4-for-14)/.375/.357/.732, 2B, 3RBI

C Chris Gimenez - 8G, .207(6-for-29)/.378/.448/.827, 2B, 2HR, 4RBI

RHP Adam Miller - 3G, 10.2IP, 13H, 12R, 11ER, 2BB, 7K, 9.28ERA

LHP Scott Lewis - 2G, 6IP, 8H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 9K, 4.50ERA

LHP Tony Sipp - Has not yet played.

RHP Fausto Carmona - Has not yet played.

3B Andy Marte - Has not yet played.

LHP Rafael Perez - Has not yet played.

C Carlos Santana - Has not yet played.

OF Jose Constanza - Has not yet played.

OF Lucas Montero - 8G, .250(5-for-20)/.400/.550/.950, 2B, 3B, HR, 5RBI

C Alex Castillo - 2G, 0-for-1

RHP Joaniel Montero - Has not yet played.


MEXICAN WINTER LEAGUE

OF Roman Pena - 15G, .357(15-for-42)/.426/.619/1.045, 5 2B, 2HR, 9RBI

I'll be back on Sunday with the next Winter League Round-up.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

AFL Update

The Surprise Rafters are sitting at the bottom of the AFL standings, with a record of 4-13. The Rafters pitchers continue to get knocked around, and its not just the Indians prospects who are struggling. On a more positive note, both Beau Mills and Wes Hodges participated in the AFL "Rising Stars" game this past Friday, and both played well in the exciting victory for the AFL's National Division. The National squad trailed 5-1 going into the bottom of the 8th when Beau Mills hit a one out single that was followed up by a Hodges walk, his 2nd of the game. Both players would eventually score, and by the end of the 8th inning the National Division led 6-5. The American Division got one back in the 9th to tie the game, which set up our future Indians with another opportunity to contribute. They did not disappoint, as Mills singled with one on and none out, and Hodges was very nearly the game's hero as he followed up the Mills single with one of his own. Unfortunately the runner on 2nd base was Toronto's catching prospect JP Arencibia. Arencibia should be a great hitter in the bigs someday, but Kenny Lofton on the bases he is not. Arencibia was thrown out at the plate, but it didn't matter as the American Division walked in Beau Mills with the winning run two batters later. So Mills ended the day 2-3 with 2 singles and 2 runs scored (including the winning run) and Hodges finished 1-3 with 2 walks and a run scored. Mills did make an error at 1B in the 7th as well.

Some notes from the Tribe prospects in the AFL:
Wes Hodges continues to pound AFL pitching; his .681 slugging percentage is in the top-5 in the league. For the season thus far, Hodges is sitting at an impressive line of .362/4/13, and his OPS is 1.069...Beau Mills now has 2 HR in the AFL, but still just 3 RBI; his OPS is at .926 as he is adding some pop to his plate discipline...Josh Rodriguez continues to struggle at the plate; he had a hit and an RBI in his last game, but is still at just .143 in the AFL...Stephen Head is still playing well in limited opportunities, and the big lefty is slugging .750 against RHP...Chuck Lofgren had his best outing of the season yesterday, striking out two and giving up an earned run in 1 1/3 innings; on the bright side of things for Lofgren, he has struck out 5 batters in his 5 2/3 innings...Erik Stiller threw 2 shutout innings last Thursday, giving up just one hit and striking out one...Josh Tomlin was roughed up in his most recent appearance this past Saturday, giving up 4 ER in 1 IP; Tomlin has cooled off a bit after a great start to his AFL campaign...Neil Wagner had held opposing batters to a .192 average in his 7 IP before yesterday; Wags did give up 2 ER in 1 IP against a hot-hitting Phoenix Desert Dogs squad

Major League Comps Part 2

Click here for part one which posted last Monday

Welcome back to part two of my minor league comparisons. This piece will handle the bigger names in the Indians’ minor league system.

First off is last year’s number one pick, Beau Mills. He has only one completed year in the minors so it was a bit tricky to find a solid comparison, but one player that stuck out was Xavier Nady. Nady was actually a year older than Mills was at high A, but Mills had the advantage of a partial year of minor league experience beforehand.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Mills 141 34 21 54 105 .293 .373 .506 .879
Nady 158 38 26 62 109 .302 .375 .527 .902

Looking at the stats, they are perhaps the most similar players I came across. Nady played in 12 more games and has close to 50 more at bats than Mills, so there’s a good chance Mills would have passed Nady in most cumulative stats if he had had more at bats. Nady has turned into a solid player but really seems about the right comparison for Mills: good but not great power, solid hitter, more of a 5 or 6 hitter. The hope for Indians’ fans is that Mills won’t take as long to click in the majors as it took Nady, who took five seasons to become a regular starter in the league.

Next up will be a comparison of two defensively-challenged 3B: Wes Hodges and Edwin Encarnacion (I’ll refer to him as Edwin). For this comparison I also added in errors and range factor. I should point out that in the comparisons Hodges is actually two years older, but Edwin had the advantage of three minor league seasons beforehand.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS E RF
Hodges 113 22 15 44 90 288 .367 .473 .840 19 2.31
Edwin 138 28 11 46 76 .294 .357 .433 .790 38 2.56

Now, to be fair, Hodges had 70 less at bats and 21 less games, which means he probably would have passed Edwin in every category including K’s and really shot up in errors. As much as Indians fans talk about Hodges’ errors going up, they really didn’t increase this year; he just played in 30 more games. Edwin is also a defensive liability, but by all standards he was actually a better defender than Hodges was at 3B at the same level. Hodges shows better pop but also looks like a potentially 120-strike-out-a-year type, which puts him right around Peralta and Sizemore’s K rate. I want to first look at the next season before going too deep into the data:

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS E RF
Hodges 146 29 18 52 105 .290 .354 .466 .820 28 1.98
Edwin 132 35 13 53 79 .281 .354 .443 .797 25 2.46

As much as everyone talks about Hodges’ breakout year, he really balanced out in the second half and overall actually had a lesser year. Yes, he had more HR, hits, etc, but his OBP and SLG were both down and his defense took a major hit. Last year the major league average range factor was 2.23, which Hodges was way below. Comparing the two, we see Hodges as a below average third baseman with a 20-25 HR potential who will strike out a large rate. In this respect, Hodges is in fact very similar in projection to Mills, which is why the Indians should move one of them now, while their value is currently at its highest, to help net the Tribe some help for next season.

Next up will be a comparison of two lefty pitchers both currently with the Tribe: Cliff Lee versus David Huff. This year Huff stormed to the forefront of Indians prospects, mostly thanks to his first complete season in the minors. In the previous two years Huff had compiled a little under 79 innings total, and this year he ended up pitching twice that.

Players W IP ER SO ERA WHIP
Huff 11 146.1 48 143 2.51 0.96
Lee 12 146.0 59 153 3.64 1.12

Both players at this point are 23 and two years in the minors. Lee did have the advantage of more innings pitched thanks to better health. It is also worth pointing out that both players split the year between AA and AAA, though Lee’s year had a bit more travel as it was also the year he was acquired by the Indians. The stats are very similar which is positive: when one considers how little Huff has been able to pitch and adds that into the stats, Huff actually projects out as a better spec than Lee. I am not saying to expect a season like Lee had last year, as it was a historical year, but the numbers show that Huff is a legit number 2 pitcher in this league on a good team and a potential ace type on a bad team. The stat that really stands out is the microscopic WHIP, which shows he is a pitcher who won’t beat himself, which is exactly what made Lee so great this year and is also a part of what made CC so great. I expect Huff will start the year in AAA, but if there is an injury or someone struggling I would expect Huff to be the first player called up and that he will be there to stay.

Carlos Santana is the hottest name among Indians prospects because he not only had a dominant season last year, but he did it at a physically demanding position. The player he is most often compared to is Russell Martin, who is another extremely athletic catcher who was converted from 3B.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Santana 65 20 7 36 40 .223 .318 .370 .688
Martin 104 24 17 72 54 .250 .361 .421 .782

In this example both players are in high A and both 21 years of age. Martin’s numbers are much higher, but he did have the advantage of playing 36 more games then Santana. This was also Santana’s first year behind the plate, which many argue to be the main reason for his lackluster year. Even if Santana had managed to play great during that time he still would have had the inferior year in comparison with Martin. This year is shown mostly for set up for the next year.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Santana 113 34 14 69 59 .323 .431 .563 .994
Martin 127 17 9 61 78 .311 .430 .423 .853

What a difference a year makes. It’s worth noting that Martin played in 30 more games and had 50 more at bats then Santana, though Santana had the advantage of repeating high A and Martin was in AA. Nonetheless, the power jump for Santana in doubles is encouraging because doubles power seems to be the best indicator for home run power for young hitters. The two hitters had a near identical OBP, but Santana seems to have a much greater power potential though he does lack the steals that Martin has been able to generate behind the plate. Still, it’s fair to see why this year the internal comparisons began between Santana and Martin. As an Indians fan it is also refreshing to see a prospect whose strike out rate is not up over 100 as it is with most of their hitters. I expect Santana to start in AA, and if and when he rakes I expect him to make it up to AAA at some point this year and the majors by 2010.

For the final comparison there is a pair of injury prone pitchers: Adam Miller versus Rich Harden – both ace type pitchers when they are able to stay healthy.

Players W IP ER SO ERA WHIP
M
iller 10 134.0 44 152 2.96 1.10
Harden 12 153.0 50 187 2.94 1.25

These stats are from both players’ second years, although Hardin was 19 and Miller 18. Harden also had about twice the number of innings the year before so he split his time between high A and AA, whereas Miller split his time between low A and high A. While Harden has the better K rate, the impressive stat to me is the WHIP. Miller already had excellent control at this point and was walking about half as many players as Harden. At this point they both look like potential aces on the fast track, but sadly for the Indians, Miller’s injury issue arose the next year and slowed him down.

Players W IP ER SO ERA WHIP
Miller 15 159.0 50 161 2.83 1.18
Harden 11 102.0 31 108 2.74 1.05

In this comparison both players are 21 years old and split time between AA and AAA. Both players have excellent WHIP’s and project out to be 200+ strike-out-a-year pitchers. They both look like dominant pitchers who are ready to take the step forward to the majors and soon after that to all-star pitchers. Miller, however, has not managed to reach 100 innings combined over the last two years. This last season for Harden was the first in 3 years that he was able to pitch more than 50 innings. He actually had more than twice as many innings this year than he had the previous two years combined. With any luck, Miller will continue to mimic Harden and play a full season this year, reestablish himself as one of the best pitchers in the minors, and earn a trip to Cleveland.

If the Indians are lucky all of their prospects will turn into useful major leaguers, but for now the best we can do is project and compare these players and hope that when the time comes to make a trade the right players are kept.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Winter League Sunday Round-up

Arizona Fall League

The Surprise Rafters record sits at 4-12 for the season and they sit in 3rd place (3 teams) of the AFL National Division, 5 games behind the first place Peoria Javelinas.

Player Updates (10/22 - 10/25): -

LHP Chuck Lofgren - Lofgren struggled again on 10/22 allowing 4 earned runs in 2IP, but actually lowered his ERA to 35.31 for the season (4.1IP, 12H, 19R, 17ER, 8BB, 3K).

RHP Erik Stiller - Stiller worked 2 scoreless innings on 10/23 to lower his season ERA to 13.50 (6.2IP, 15H, 17R, 10ER, 2BB, 5K).

RHP Josh Tomlin - Tomlin worked his second straight disaster of an outing on 10/25 allowing 7 runs (4 earned) in 1+ innings of relief. After allowing only 1 run through his first two outings (7IP), Tomlin has been touched for 13 earned runs in his last two outings (3IP). For the season Tomlin now sports a 12.60ERA (10IP, 23H, 17R, 14ER, 2BB, 10K).

RHP Neil Wagner - Allowed 2ER in 2IP on 10/22 to raise his season ERA to 5.14 (7IP, 5H, 5R, 4ER, 6BB, 3K).

3B Wes Hodges - Hodges was 1-for-4 on 10/23 and 3-for-5 on 10/25 with a pair of solo HR and an RBI single running his season line to .357(15-for-42)/.386/.690/1.077 with 2 2B, 4HR & 12RBI in 10 games.

1B Beau Mills - Mills made his only appearance on 10/25 finishing 1-for-5 with his 2nd HR of the Fall Season. For the year Mills now sports a .269(7-for-26)/.387/.538/.926 line in 7 games.

INF Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez was 1-for-4 on 10/22 and 0-for-4 on 10/23 to lower his line to a struggling .129(4-for-31)/.229/.194/.422 in 9 games.

OF Stephen Head - Head made his only appearance on 10/22 going 1-for-3 with a BB and 2K and for the season is now hitting .375(3-for-8)/.500/.500/1.000 in 4 games as a Taxi Squad player.

Also, the AFL All-Star game took place on 10/24 with Beau Mills and Wes Hodges being selected for the National Division team. Hodges started at DH and was 1-for-3 with 2BB and Mills entered as a pinch hitter in the 6th inning finishing the night 2-for-3 with 2 runs scored in the National Divisions come-from-behind 7-6 win.

Furthermore, Neil Wagner has the latest installment of his blog for MLB.com posted this week.


Hawaii Winter League

The North Shore Honu's record for the Winter season sits at 8-13 and they remain in second place (2 teams) of the HWB West Division.

Player Updates (10/22 - 10/25): -

LHP Matt Meyer - Meyer worked a scoreless inning on 10/24 with 2K. For the season he now carries an 8.00ERA (9IP, 13H, 11R, 8ER, 6BB, 14K).

LHP Shawn Nottingham - Has not made an appearance since the last update and still holds a 4.09ERA (11IP, 9H, 8R, 5ER, 6BB, 15K) in 8 games.

LHP Heath Taylor - Has no appearances since the last update and his ERA still sits at 2.19 in 4 games (12.1IP, 14H, 4R, 3ER, 4BB, 9K).

C Adam Davis - Went 0-for-3 on 10/24 to lower his overall line to .100(3-for-30)/.325/.167/.492 for the season.

3B Dustin Realini - Has not made an appearance since the last update so his line still sits at .160(4-for-25)/.222/.160/.382 in 7 games.

INF Ron Rivas - Rivas was 2-for-3 with a 2B & RBI on 10/24 to improve his numbers to .261(6-for-23)/.320/.304/.624 in 8 games.

OF Matt McBride - McBride was 3-for-4 with his 2nd Fall HR on 10/22 and then was 1-for-4 on 10/24 to give him a steady .276(21-for-76)/.380/.434/.815 line with 6 2B, 2HR and 15RBI in 20 games.

2008 18th round draft pick LHP Kaimi Mead continues to pitch for his hometown Honolulu Sharks and since the last update worked a scoreless inning on 10/24 to run his overall numbers to a continually impressive 12IP, 9H, 7R, 3ER, 6BB, 11K, 2.25ERA for the Winter season.


Caribbean Winter Leagues

Player Updates (overall numbers): -

VENEZUELAN WINTER LEAGUE

RHP Randy Newsom - 2G, 0.2IP, 5H, 6R/ER, 2BB, 0K, 81.00ERA

OF Matt LaPorta - 10G, .209(9-for-43)/.261/.419/.679, 3 2B, 2HR, 9RBI

INF Asdrubal Cabrera - Has not yet played.

OF Franklin Gutierrez - Has not yet played.

RHP Edward Mujica - Has not yet played.

INF Nuiman Romero - Has not yet played.

INF Karexon Sanchez - Has not yet played.

RHP Hector Rondon - Has not yet played.

There is a new addition it would seem to the rosters in Venezuela; 20-year RHP Jeanmar Gomez is listed on the roster for Tiburones de la Guaira but, as yet, has not made an appearance in a game.


DOMINICAN WINTER LEAGUE

1B Jordon Brown - 4G, .273(3-for-11)/.333/.364/.697, 2B, 3RBI

C Chris Gimenez - 6G, .217(5-for-23)/.333/.391/.725, 2B, HR, 2RBI

RHP Adam Miller - 2G, 5.2IP, 8H, 8R/ER, 2BB, 3K, 12.71ERA

LHP Scott Lewis - 2G, 6IP, 8H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 9K, 4.50ERA

LHP Tony Sipp - Has not yet played.

RHP Fausto Carmona - Has not yet played.

3B Andy Marte - Has not yet played.

LHP Rafael Perez - Has not yet played.

C Carlos Santana - Has not yet played.

OF Jose Constanza - Has not yet played.

OF Lucas Montero - 6G, .263(5-for-19)/.417/.579/.996, 2B, 3B, HR, 5RBI

C Alex Castillo - 2G, 0-for-1

RHP Joaniel Montero - Has not yet played.


MEXICAN WINTER LEAGUE

Roman Pena - 13G, .371(13-for-35)/.436/.686/1.122, 5 2B, 2HR, 9RBI

I'll be back with the next winter league update on Wednesday.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Delmont Miller Passes Away

Minor league baseball lost a great person today. Delmont Miller, 42, passed away today from a massive heart attack.

For those that don't know, he was the scoreboard operator at Kinston for 22 years, and has had the job since he was 20-years old. I had the opportunity to meet Miller at Kinston, and while he was unique in every way, he was a wonderful person.

Here is a link to a short article of which a much longer one should post on their site tomorrow morning.

http://www.kinston.com/articles/miller_50580___article.html/delmont_david.html

Delmont Miller, Grainger Stadium’s longtime scoreboard operator, died early Saturday. He was 42.

Miller, a Kinston native known for his nightly “shout-outs” at Kinston Indians games, had a massive heart attack after being taken to the emergency room at Lenoir Memorial Hospital late Friday, a family member said. He died shortly after midnight.

Miller operated the stadium’s scoreboard for 22 years after a stint as the team’s mascot. With his shout-outs — a brief Q&A session over the public address system during which Miller would recognize friends around the ballpark — he became a staple in the Carolina League.

Funeral arrangements are pending.

Weekend Rundown

Time for another Saturday rundown to recap all the happenings in the system from this past week as well as a few news items:

• I had left-hander Matt Meyer on my weekly radio show Smoke Signals this past Thursday. Thanks again to Matt for coming on and best of luck the rest of the way. This coming Thursday I’ll have right-hander Jeff Stevens on, and every week going forward a player should be on as a guest. Smoke Signals can be heard live every Thursday from 9:30-10:30pm ET, and is available to download at anytime.

• There is some concern among fans that after left-hander Chuck Lofgren struggled through a lost season in Akron this year (2-6, 5.99 ERA, 52 BB in 85.2 IP) and is getting shelled in the Arizona Fall League (5 games, 4.1 IP, 12 H, 17 ER, 2 HR, 8 BB, 3 K, 35.51 ERA) that he has slid completely off the prospect map. At 22 years of age, Lofgren is still very young and can rebound from what has been a disaster of a season for him on the field and an emotional rollercoaster off of it. He is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and even with the bad numbers has a small chance to get selected (he won’t be rostered by the Indians), but in any case he should be with the Indians next year and likely open in Akron again looking to rebound in a big way. Whether he remains a starting pitcher or is converted to a reliever remains to be seen, but it should be noted that he was sent by the Indians to Arizona to start but surprisingly has pitched out of the bullpen. I was able to speak to someone about Lofgren on Thursday, and contrary to other reports his fastball velocity is still around 88-92 MPH out in Arizona. There seems to be a misconception that he sits 94-95 MPH, which he doesn't. Yes, he occasionally tops out at 93, 94 or 95, but he usually sits low 90s. In any case, people have been asking what this “personal issue” is with Lofgren and what has been bothering him all season. Out of respect to Lofgren I have kept a lid on what he is going through and have waited to say something about it until he speaks out first on it himself. There is a good chance that will happen soon.

• First baseman Michael Aubrey looks like he may be sticking around awhile longer as he looks to be in line to get a fourth option year. Players get three option years once they are added to the 40-man roster, but a lot of people are not aware a fourth option year can be given for medical reasons. Any player who is entering his fourth or fifth season on a 40-man roster gets a fourth option year (without waivers) if he has missed one or more seasons to injury. Specifically, missing a season to injury means they accrued less than 90 days on an active roster. Aubrey was rostered back in November 2005, but proceeded to only play in 14 games in the 2006 season during his first option year and was active for just a few days that season. As a result, Aubrey should be in line to get this special exception for a 4th option year. This has been done in the past for the Indians, most recently with the likes of Brian Tallet, Jason Stanford, and Andrew Brown. Left-hander Tony Sipp should also get this special 4th option year when his third and final option year runs out (likely after the 2010 season).

• Right-hander Randy Newsom is blogging about his experiences pitching in Venezuela this winter. Check out his most recent entry, which is very deep and talks about some of the mental issues that can be a constant struggle to overcome off the field. Newsom is Rule 5 eligible and after the 2009 season will be a minor league free agent, so his life may just get a little crazier (and better) real soon.

• Catcher Chun-Hsiu Chen has a blog that has lots of pictures that capture his time from spring training through his season in the Gulf Coast League (GCL) this year. Chen is only 19 years old and is a free agent signing out of Taiwan last offseason. I saw him a few times in spring training and also in action with the GCL club this year and was impressed with the way the ball jumps off his bat. In 38 games he hit .261 with 3 HR, 15 RBI and had a .745 OPS, and could see time in Lake County next year.

• Baseball America reviewed the Indians 2008 Draft. This is premium content, but for the most part they really liked the Indians late signings of Trey Haley, T.J. House, Zach Putnam, Tim Fedroff and Bryce Stowell. Check out the discussion of this on the site message board.

• The Indians made two roster moves on Friday, as right-hander Brian Slocum cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Columbus. He is now a minor league free agent, though there is a good chance he and the Indians reach a deal to where he can be one of those veteran depth guys on the pitching staff. Also, right-hander Brian Bullington was claimed off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays. The removal of these two players from the 40-man roster is no surprise, and there could be another non-free agent player or two removed as the Indians get ready to start adding players from the minor league system in need of roster protection like a Trevor Crowe, Carlos Santana, Jordan Brown, Jeff Stevens, and more.

• In case you missed it, MiLB.com did a nice little 2008 review of the Indians farm system this past week.

• I have the Indians Rule 5 eligible list, but have one issue I am trying to clear up with it before posting. At the latest, it will go up on Monday. In addition to that, I will be posting the Indians future eligible list for 2009 through 2012 as well.

• Last, big ups to DSLewis and GoTribe31 for their help with providing several updates a week on how the Indians players are doing in the winter leagues.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Smit Goes From Outback To The Pros

This is an article from August 2007, but thought some who missed it the first time around may be interested in it. In the coming weeks, I'll be posting several more of these older articles that were written before this blog began a year ago.

The Indians dipped into the outback last year to nab 16-year old Jason Smit, a promising, young prospect out of Australia. When he signed with the Indians in July, Smit was widely considered a top ten International prospect.

At 16-years old, there is a lot of projection involved with any prospect at that age, so there is no telling what may happen with Smit over the course of the next few years as his body continues to mature. Still, the chance at grabbing a player with a lot of upside offensively that can be a middle of the diamond player was intriguing for the Indians and their scouts to pass up.

“Jason is a middle-of-the-diamond player with offensive upside who has been playing at the international level since he was 14 years old,” said Indians Scouting Director John Mirabelli in a press release last year after Smit was signed. “Jason has great instincts for the game and a very advanced approach for a player his age.”

The Indians tried Smit out back in extended spring training in 2006, liked what they saw, and worked with Smit’s agent to get him signed.

“I was at the academy in Australia,” recalled Smit. “We were having talks to a lot of teams and it kind of just happened. I actually came over last extended spring training to tryout with the Indians and for a bunch of other teams. I liked Cleveland and ended up signing with them.”

As noted by Mirabelli above, the Indians really liked Smit’s potential with his bat and throwing arm. While the Indians view him as a middle infielder, he has the potential to play virtually anywhere on the infield.

“I was signed as a shortstop and been moved around a bit to third and second,” said Smit. “Just trying to figure out where I am going to be at this stage. I'm not too sure quite yet, so I am just playing everyday going spot to spot. I've always liked shortstop, but I don't mind. Whatever helps me try climbing up the ladder is fine. I don't really care where I am playing as long as I am getting an opportunity to swing the bat I am happy.”

Smit is playing his first season of professional baseball in the Gulf Coast League (GCL) with the Indians short-season rookie level team the GCL Indians, located in Winter Haven, Florida. With just a few days left in the season in the GCL, Smit (now 17-years old) is hitting .214 with 1 HR and 15 RBI in 117 at bats. Smit is one of the younger players in the league, as most of the players range from 18-20 years old.

“It's alright, it has been a long few months,” said Smit in his Australian accent when asked how his season is going. “It was nice to get the season going and I am pretty excited by it. I got here February 17th. It's been a long time.”

On the surface, the numbers he has put up are not very good. But, he is very young, and there are a lot of things going on behind the scenes he is doing to continually try and improve his game.

“I'm doing alright (at the plate),” said Smit. “I’m battling through it as it has been a long season so far, and we are kind of getting to the end part. I’m just working with the coaches a lot to try and get better as a hitter, like learning more about different pitches and how to pick them up.”

Smit has been in Winter Haven for the past six months. For Smit and his extended spring training brethren, that might as well be a long prison sentence. After the major league and full season minor league clubs break camp at the end of March, the short-season league players for Mahoning Valley and the GCL hang around in extended spring training for two and a half months scrimmaging each other, doing drills and working out. Then, once Mahoning Valley’s season starts up in late June, it is just the GCL players in Winter Haven and the complex pretty much becomes a ghost town while the GCL Indians play through their season.

“It is very difficult seeing everyone leave,” said Smit when asked about his first extended spring training. “It is an extension of spring training and knowing your season is not going to be for another few months. Its okay, and the more experienced you get the better it is going to be. We train in the morning. There are basically two teams, the rookie ball team and Mahoning Valley and we basically are together. All it is, is we play different teams by splitting into two teams and one day one team will play, like say Houston, and the other will train, and it switches back and forth.”

Not only has it been tough to keep focused mentally for six months in Winter Haven, but Smit also has to deal with adjusting to the American culture. Smit is a native Australian, but has been to the Unites Stated before and there is no language barrier, which he said helps.

“It’s not too bad,” said Smit. “It is pretty much the exact same as home with the people and stuff, and the language is the same which is always good. So there is nothing really that different. I didn't have to change to much with what is around, so it wasn't too bad of a change.”

Of course, being 17-years old and in a new country several thousand miles away from his family has to be rough, right?

“It's been difficult,” said Smit. “My parents and brother came over a couple weeks ago (early July) for a good month. I had them come over to make it a bit easier because it has been hard being away so long. With friends and stuff like that it is difficult, but it is alright as long as you keep in regular contact.”

Which raises another question. At 16-years of age Smit signed a professional contract and is now playing ball at 17-years old, but just about every kid in the United States is still attending high school at those ages.

“I'm 17 now, and I graduated last year in October,” said Smit. “We graduate earlier than American kids, I think we start a year earlier. I made sure I finished high school and graduated and then came here.”

Being so young, Smit gets a lot of the typical playful heckling in the clubhouse, especially in spring training when all the players were in camp. But, one player took him under his wing and tried to help prepare Smit for what lies ahead for him as he continues to live his dream to hopefully someday become a major leaguer.

“One guy actually took me under his wing, Alan Zinter, who is 38,” said Smit. “He was just trying to make the big league squad again (in spring training). He took me under his wing massively, and I learned so much from him. I think he quit because there was no place for him. He was huge though. He talked about different ways to get through the season, and just so much stuff on how to play the game mentally, and stuff like that it was a massive hand. He was a really good guy to get along with and stuff, and it was a bunch of things that he helped me with.”

With the GCL season wrapping up this Monday on August 27th, Smit plans to go home and be with his family. But, the Instructional League isn’t too far off from the end of the season, so his vacation from Winter Haven may not last long.

”I'm gonna go back home,” said Smit. “I am not too sure yet about Instructs. I'm guessing I will probably come, but we'll go home before that and have a good break before we come back again.”

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Smoke Signals tonight @ 9:30pm with Matt Meyer

Another edition of Smoke Signals airs tonight Thursday Oct 23rd at 9:30-10:30pm. Paul and I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the organization at each position from majors to minors, and try to hone in on the positions of need and what to do this offseason. A 10pm, the talk will shift over to the winter leagues where we will run down the Hawaii, Arizona, Dominican, Venezuela, and Mexico leagues to see how the Indians players are performing out there. Left-hander Matt Meyer will be on around 10pm to discuss how he is doing and also give some insight into the Hawaii Winter League.

Call in number is 646-716-8012 and the link is below:

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/TheClevelandFan/2008/10/24/Smoke-Signals-The-Cleveland-Fan-Live

Reminder, next week Jeff Stevens will be on and in upcoming weeks many more players are lined up to appear.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Winter League Wednesday Round-up

Arizona Fall League

The AFL is now moving into it's third week and you saw in our week two review yesterday how Indians prospects have been fairing so far. Let's just refresh your memory with their overall numbers for the Winter season.

Player Updates: -

LHP Chuck Lofgren - 4G, 2.1IP, 8H, 15R, 13ER, 7BB, 1K, 50.14ERA

RHP Erik Stiller - 4G, 4.2IP, 14H, 17R, 10ER, 2BB, 4K, 19.29ERA

RHP Josh Tomlin - 3G, 9IP, 15H, 10R/ER, 2BB, 9K, 10.00ERA

RHP Neil Wagner - 4G, 5IP, 3H, 3R, 2ER, 5BB, 2K, 3.60ERA

3B Wes Hodges - 8G, .333(11-for-33)/.371/.576/.947, 2 2B, 2HR, 9RBI

1B Beau Mills - 6G, .286(6-for-21)/.423/.476/.899, 2B, HR, 2RBI

INF Josh Rodriguez - 7G, .130(3-for-23)/.259/.174/.433, 2B, 2RBI

OF Stephen Head - 3G, .400(2-for-5)/.500/.600/1.100, 2B, RBI


Hawaii Winter League

Since the last update, the North Shore Honu have gone 1-1 to run their overall record to 7-12 for the season.

Player Updates (10/19 - 10/21): -

LHP Matt Meyer - Worked 2 scoreless innings on 10/21 with 5Ks to run his overall ERA to 9.00 for the season (8IP, 13H, 11R, 8ER, 6BB, 12K).

LHP Shawn Nottingham - Worked a scoreless inning on 10/21 with 2Ks to pick up a win. For the season he now has a 4.09ERA (11IP, 9H, 8R, 5ER, 6BB, 15K).

LHP Heath Taylor - Has not appeared since the last update - still holds a 2.19ERA (12.1IP, 14H, 3ER, 4BB, 9K).

C Adam Davis - Went 0-for-3 on 10/21 to lower his average to .111 (3-for-27) for the season. Davis also has 9 passed balls in only 10 games played suggesting he still has a lot to work on defensively in his transition to catcher.

3B Dustin Realini - Was 3-for-4 on 10/21 to raise his average to .160 (4-for-25).

INF Ron Rivas - Went 1-for-4 on 10/19 to raise his average to .200(4-for-20)/.273/.200/.473

OF Matt McBride - McBride was 0-for-5 on 10/19 and 0-for-3 on 10/21 to lower his line to .250(17-for-68)/.369/.382/.751 for the season.

LHP Kaimi Mead is still pitching for Holnolulu Sharks and since the last update worked a scoreless inning on 10/19 to lower his overall numbers to a 2.45ERA (11IP, 9H, 7R, 3ER, 5BB, 10K).


Caribbean Winter Leagues

Player Updates (overall numbers): -

VENEZUELAN WINTER LEAGUE

RHP Randy Newsom - 1G, 0.2IP, 3H, 3R/ER, 1BB, 40.50ERA

OF Matt LaPorta - 6G, .222(6-for-27)/.250/.296/.546, 2 2B, 4RBI, 1BB, 9K

INF Asdrubal Cabrera - Has not yet played.

OF Franklin Gutierrez - Has not yet played.

RHP Edward Mujica - Has not yet played.

INF Nuiman Romero - Has not yet played.

INF Karexon Sanchez - Has not yet played.

RHP Hector Rondon - Has not yet played.


DOMINICAN WINTER LEAGUE

1B Jordan Brown - 4G, .273(4-for-11)/.333/.364/.697, 2B, 3RBI

C Chris Gimenez - 3G, .167(2-for-12)/.231/.250/.481, 2B, BB, 4K

RHP Adam Miller - 2G, 5.2IP, 8H, 8R/ER, 2BB, 3K, 12.71ER

LHP Scott Lewis - 1G, 2.1IP, 3H, 2R/ER, 0BB, 3K, 7.71ERA

LHP Tony Sipp - Has not yet played.

RHP Fausto Carmona - Has not yet played.

3B Andy Marte - Has not yet played.

LHP Rafael Perez - Has not yet played.

C Carlos Santana - Has not yet played.

OF Jose Constanza - Has not yet played.

OF Lucas Montero - 4G, .455(5-for-11)/.571/1.000/1.571, 2B, 3B, HR, 5RBI

C Alex Castillo - 1G, no official plate appearance.

RHP Joaniel Montero - Has not yet played.


MEXICAN WINTER LEAGUE

OF Roman Pena - 9G, .318(7-for-22)/.375/.591/.966, 3 2B, HR, 3RBI

I'll be back on Sunday with the next Winter League Round-up.

Hodges and Mills Named to AFL's Rising Stars Roster

Phoenix, Arizona — The Arizona Fall League stages its third annual Rising Stars Game at 7:15 p.m. on Friday, October 24 at Surprise Stadium, the spring home of the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers. The Rising Stars Game is scheduled for a World Series travel day to fill a void for baseball fans.

Scouting and minor league directors of every major-league organization, in consultation with Fall League Executive Director Steve Cobb and his baseball personnel staff, selected the players for the showcase. Each major-league organization is represented by at least one player. First baseman Beau Mills and third baseman Wes Hodges will represent the Indians.

“The Fall League is proud to field six teams stocked with the top prospects in baseball six days a week for six weeks every year,” Cobb offers. “Friday, we narrow the focus to 50 players who have been selected to participate based upon evaluations of baseball professionals at the team level. We take pride in what the future holds for these young men.”

For many, the future holds the major leagues. Two years ago, the inaugural Rising Stars included shortstops Yunel Escobar (Braves), and Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies), third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres), and outfielders Ryan Braun (Brewers), Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox), and Hunter Pence (Astros). Last year, the names changed but the destination was the same for shortstop Jed Lowrie (Red Sox), pitcher Charlie Morton (Braves), and outfielder Ryan Sweeney (Athletics). Eighty-three players from the 2006 Arizona Fall League reached the major leagues in 2007. Last year’s Class of 2007 graduated 86 players to the big leagues in 2008.

“The opportunity the Arizona Fall League affords the prospects comprising the Class of 2008 this fall is undeniable,” Cobb adds. “We wish them well and we look forward to following their progress and cheering their successes.”

Following Friday’s “Rising Stars Game,” the six-team Arizona Fall League resumes play the next day, Saturday, October 25 and continues with games Monday-Saturday through Thursday, November 20. The league championship game will be held two days later on Saturday, November 22 at 12:35 p.m. at Scottsdale Stadium.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Arizona Fall League Update


Week two of the Arizona Fall League saw the Indians pitchers getting lit up across the board, lowlighted by a 28-1 loss by the Surprise Rafters yesterday. Josh Tomlin, stellar up until yesterday, got the start and gave up 9 ER in just 2 IP. Even with that poor outing, Tomlin's ERA stands at 10.00. Not to be outdone, Erik Stiller came in and gave up 7 runs (2 ER) including 2 HR. Add that to Chuck Lofgren's continued struggles (50.14 ERA!), and on the surface there has to be some concern about the Tribe pitchers in the AFL. Neil Wagner has been the only exception, posting a 3.60 ERA in his 5 innings of work.

I am here to advise everyone to remain calm. These sky-high ERAs are all in a very small sample size, and will come down as the pitchers get more regular work. These guys are going down to Arizona to work with a coaching staff that they are unfamiliar with and throwing to catchers who they have never worked with. Hitters therefore have a much easier time adjusting to the AFL than pitchers. As the pitchers, catchers and coaches all become more accustomed to each other, I think we will see all of the pitching numbers come down to a normal level. Catchers will be more comfortable calling the right pitches for the right situations, and pitching coaches will be able to correct minor mechanical flaws as they happen rather than waiting until after the fact. The Rafters team ERA currently stands at 7.84, a number that almost HAS to come down. People are already talking about making Lofgren a hitter, as some teams were talking about drafting him as an OF rather than a pitcher. I think that is still a bit hasty, as the raw ability is still there, and he is only 22. Last time I checked, 6'3" lefties who can throw 90 MPH+ don't grow on trees. Lets give him another year to try and work things out before going down that road.

We have better news out of Arizona on the hitting side, as Wes Hodges continues to impress with the bat. Hitting .333/2/9 so far, Hodges has an OPS of .947. Despite less than glowing reports from major media outlets on his glovework, the Indians have to be happy with his performance thus far. Beau Mills has mysteriously turned into a singles hitter in Arizona, batting .294 but with only one extra base hit. The power is there...nothing to be worried about. Also encouraging are his 5 walks against 7 strikeouts, better numbers in that department than he put up in Kinston this year. Josh Rodriguez has carried over his Akron struggles to Surprise. With just 3 hits in 27 AB's, Rodriguez is sitting at just .130. He is getting regular playing time, so hopefully the bat will come around. Taxi-squad member Stephen Head hasn't seen any action since our last update; he still stands at .400 in limited action.

Congratulations to Eric Wedge for his induction into the AFL Hall of Fame last week. Wedgie played in the AFL way back in 1993 when he was a catching prospect in the Colorado organization, having been selected in the expansion draft from the Red Sox. Wedge is the 1st former AFL player to become a manager in the big leagues. The AFL Hall of Fame inductees are selected based on their success in the majors, so its a nice honor for Wedge and the Indians.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Major League Comparisons

The season is done and now the analysis begins. Most Tribe fans out there see an Indians team that, with a few changes, could be at the top of their division next year. To acquire the players to achieve that, however, the Indians will have to trade some of their top specs this winter. So the question is: How can the Indians ensure they trade players who are the least likely to make impacts later? One method I propose using is comparing the minor league stats of top prospects this year to those of some of the current major leaguers. In other words, I’m comparing current prospects to major leaguers when they were at the same stage of development. I have attempted to find players who put up similar stats at the same levels, and I only compared players with a maximum of one year difference in age when on the same level.

There is one glaring omission from this comparison; I did not find a comp for Matt Laporta. The issue is he has never played a complete year in the minors. His two years were both partial years, and so it is difficult to really compare stats. Add in all the transitions Laporta had this year and it would have been unfair to compare the numbers he did have.

To start, I want to compare Carlos Rivero to Miguel Cabrera, a player I have heard him compared to physically. Let’s first look at Rivero and Cabrera’s stats in Low A ball. Rivero was a year older at 19, but for both players it was only their second year in the minors, which would have them in a similar place developmentally.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Rivero: 114 26 7 47 84 .261 .332 .369 .701
Cabrera: 113 19 7 37 76 .268 .327 .382 .709

These stats show Cabrera being the superior player, but not by much. The biggest difference was in doubles, and there is hope that as Rivero gets stronger he can turn those doubles into HR’s.

We can also look at both players the next year at high A.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Rivero: 116 27 8 36 84 .282 .342 .411 .753
Cabrera: 134 43 9 38 85 .274 .326 .421 .747

We see a bigger jump for Cabrera in power this year, but we still see Rivero keeping up with Miggy. He might have less power, but he was also able to stay at SS as Cabrera, who got shifted over to third, was unable to do. Rivero had about 70 less at bats, which would have helped even out those numbers even more. For those who wonder, it was the year after this that Miggy hit 365 at AA and was subsequently promoted to the majors. If this trend continues, we should expect Rivero to have his breakout year in his 3rd season in AA much the same way that Cabrera did.

The next comparison focuses on a pair of sluggers: Nick Weglarz and Adam Dunn. I know, it’s hard to call Weglarz a slugger when he hit only 10 HR this year, but he did miss a month because of the Olympics. Everyone compares Weglarz to Thome, but Thome’s first year in the minors he was 21 and Weglarz is currently 20.

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Weglraz: 122 28 24 83 129 .276 .393 .497 .891
Dunn: 96 16 16 79 100 .281 .419 .469 .888

Both players here are in low A at the age of 19. The important stats to look at are AVG/OBP/SLG/ OPS, where Dunn had about 100 less at bats than Weglarz, and so I imagine he would have had more hits and walks but would have been about equal in doubles and HR. Both players show great patience but also have scary strike out numbers. Now, before everyone starts having Russell Branyan flashbacks, let’s look at the walks. Branyan averaged about 50 walks a year and Weglarz should get to 80-100 a year, which is why he is closer to Dunn then Branyan.

Let’s look at what both players did when they were 20 years old:

Player Hits 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Weglarz: 102 20 10 71 78 .272 .396 .432 .828
Dunn: 118 29 16 84 82 .334 .434 .671 1.105

Weglarz’ numbers took a dip this year when you compare the two players, but Weglarz had about 50 less at bats. In addition, when you consider his best month of the year was when he was gone for the Olympics, you wonder about the numbers he could potentially put up. For as much talk as there was about Weglarz’s power this year, he was still in line to have the same power numbers as Dunn. It is also worth noting that it was after this season that Dunn reached super spec status. Weglarz had a good year, but really he just couldn’t compete with Dunn’s numbers. For example, a 396 OBP is excellent but 434 is unheard of – the only players in the majors last year with a better OBP were Chipper Jones, Pujols, and Bradley. If Weglraz is able to stay on the same time frame as Dunn, we should see him in the majors in 2010, and hopefully not too long after that he’ll start hitting some 30-40 HRs a season.

Next up I’ll compare Hector Rondon and Ervin Santana. First, let’s look at their years at low A. For both players it was their second year in the minors, though Rondon was a year older at 19.

Players W ING ER SO ERA WHIP
Rondon: 7 136 66 113 4.37 1.25
Santana: 11 155 59 146 4.16 1.23

What I find striking here is that neither player really had a strong year. Both players had the same number of starts, but Santana was able to last a little longer and pitched 19 more innings. Santana also won the SO total by a large margin. For the most part, though, neither pitcher showed enough to be regarded as a top spec at this point. Now let’s flash forward a year:

Players W ING ER SO ERA WHIP
Rondon: 11 145 58 145 3.60 1.19
Santana: 11 155 48 153 2.79 1.09

Both players had really good years in high A. The comparison isn’t as much on the stats as it is on the fact that both players were able to rebound and show great potential in A. For Rondon I think this was tied to his jump in strike outs: he jumped to average a strike out an inning, which is a ridiculous rate. Only Tim Lincecum, Rich Harden, Edison Volquez, and AJ Burnett averaged a strike out an inning among major league starters this year. Ervin Santana was right-off that pace, and if the Indians are lucky Rondon will follow Santana’s pace and be in the majors in 2010 and be an all star not long after.

Sticking to the pitchers with a look at a current and future Indian, let’s examine the oft compared Kelvin De La Cruz and Fausto Carmona. This time the comparison will start by looking at Fausto’s first year in the minors and Kelvin’s second year. Kelvin played in the GCL his first year so in this comparison he is a year older at 19. It is also worth noting that De La Cruz’s time was spilt between Rookie and A ball whereas most of Carmona’s year was at rookie level.

Players W ING ER SO ERA WHIP
De la Cruz: 5 72 25 75 3.11 1.16
Carmona: 2 76 37 42 3.15 2.28

Looking at the numbers and recognizing that De la Cruz spent more time on a higher level, I think it’s safe to say that he looks like the much better pitcher. Carmona’s WHIP was especially troubling, and I for one have no idea how he kept his ERA so low. This comparison is more of a set up for the next one:

Players W ING ER SO ERA WHIP
De La Cruz: 12 130 43 136 2.98 1.32
Carmona: 17 154 37 86 2.16 0.90

While it seems that Carmona had a much better year, once again it should be noted that De La Cruz had 9 starts at high A whereas all of Carmona’s starts were at low A. I look at those stat lines, in particular the strike out totals, and am much more encouraged by De La Cruz’s numbers. A lot of questions are out there about Carmona and his strike out rate in the majors. This is not a question that needs to be asked about De La Cruz. I would argue that because he is able to strike out so many batters, De La Cruz is a better spec at this point in his career than Carmona.

This finishes up the first part of my top prospect comparisons; later this week I will finish up the rest and post part two. The next piece will feature Hodges, Huff, Mills, Miller, and Carlos Santana. So make sure to check out the next piece.