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Monday, January 31, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #42 Michael Goodnight

Michael Goodnight – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 06/10/1989 – Height: 6’4” – Weight: 215 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: The Indians selected Goodnight in the 13th round of the 2010 Draft out of the University of Houston. As a draft eligible sophomore, after picking him last year the Indians watched him pitch summer ball in the Cape Cod League where he started six games and went 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA, and in 37.1 innings allowed 25 hits, 10 walks, and had 27 strikeouts.  After liking what they saw in him in the Cape, the Indians ended up signing him to a $315,000 bonus about a week before the signing deadline.  This was actually the second time the Indians had drafted him as back in 2008 they made him a 27th round pick out of high school.

Strengths: Goodnight is a big bodied, physical, athletic right-handed pitcher with good, raw arm strength with an effortless delivery. He has the size and body to be a starting pitcher which should help him hold up well to the normal wear and tear a pitcher goes through during a season. He throws a plus fastball that usually sits around 90-92 MPH though has touched 94 MPH on occasion. He complements the fastball with a good, developing slider that sits in the low 80s and is considered his best secondary pitch. He also throws a curveball and changeup, with the curveball getting consideration from some scouts as a true weapon and the changeup a solid fourth offering though still a work in progress.

Opportunities: As evidenced by the small sample size in Mahoning Valley and at Houston last year, at times Goodnight can lack a feel for pitching which leads to a lot of ups and downs with his performance. Getting him to maintain his fastball command is probably the most important area of focus going into next season as too often he will fall behind in the count and not keep the ball down in the zone which leads to a lot of hits, walks, and loud outs. He also needs to do a better job of establishing his fastball early in counts. His slider has the potential to be a lot more, but he needs to become more consistent with the mechanics of the pitch. His changeup needs more development and consistency and along with his fastball command will be the key to keeping him as a starting pitcher.

Outlook: What kind of pitcher Goodnight ultimately becomes is anyone’s guess at this point. If the command comes and his secondary offerings improve, then he has a chance to remain a starter. Initially he will be developed as a starting pitcher in the lower levels of the minors in order to help facilitate his development, but at some point when he reaches the higher levels of the minors he likely will make the transition to a full time reliever. He should open the 2011 season in the starting rotation at Low-A Lake County.

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGGSIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
200920U. of HoustonC554.43151365.0683233158UNK4.38.01.52
201021U. of HoustonC775.36161685.29051135490.2735.79.51.68
201021Mahoning ValleyA-024.054413.110601012.2176.88.11.50
MiLB Totals024.054413.110601012.2176.88.11.50

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Tribe Happenings: Carmona, Sizemore staying put

The Indians need Carmona to anchor the staff
while they rebuild and as they move back into
contention (Photo: AP).
Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Tribe notebook...

Carmona, Sizemore are not on trade block

A report from a Baltimore news outlet on Tuesday made mention that the Indians and Washington Nationals have discussed a deal that would send right-handed pitcher Fausto Carmona and outfielder Grady Sizemore to the Nationals. The report cited an anonymous big league scout who told the reporter that the scout had "heard" of some "conversations taking place" between the Indians and Nationals.

The report is completely false and mostly speculation.

I've learned through several sources connected to the Indians that they in no way have had any discussion with the Nationals about Sizemore and Carmona, and that they certainly are not looking to trade either of them right now. It is no mystery that at some point they will probably entertain offers for both players, but right now they have no intention whatsoever to trade them as they need them for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Besides, there is no reason the Indians should have a need to trade Carmona. Typically when a team trades a player for financial reasons, they are looking to get out from under a bad contract or they want to get something for a player before they leave via free agency. Neither of those two scenarios applies to Carmona as he is under the Indians' control for four more seasons and he has as team friendly a contract as you will see.

There is no long term monetary commitment to Carmona as 2011 is the last guaranteed year of his contact that calls for him to make a little more than $6 million this season, which is peanuts for a pitcher of his caliber. After this season he has three club options for 2012 ($7 million), 2013 ($9 million), and 2014 ($12 million) that the organization can pick up or decline as they see fit before he is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season.

At this point the Indians can just go year-to-year with Carmona and have no long term financial obligation to him beyond each season. If at any point he is deemed too expensive or unproductive, they just decline his option the next offseason and let him become a free agent or try to trade him. But if he continues to perform well, they pick up his option.

As for Sizemore, it is no secret that he is eligible for free agency after the 2012 season, so trade talks should start to come more to the forefront with him this season. But any trade talks involving him right now are extremely premature and would only be to lay a foundation to a deal for later this year or next year after he proves he is healthy from microfracture surgery on his knee.

Right now no one is going to pay anything of value for Sizemore until interested teams can dispatch their scouts to watch him play and evaluate his health and ability this season. Also, the Indians are certainly not going to take a bath on him right now just to dump his salary.

The Indians still plan on contending in 2012, so they are going to be counting on Sizemore to be a big piece of the puzzle for the offense. If he proves he is not healthy this year they have the option of declining his $9 million club option for 2012, so like Carmona they can just go year to year with him the next two seasons without any long term financial commitment. If he is healthy and produces, then they will surely pick up his option for 2012.

Another thing to note with Sizemore which hurts his trade value right now is that if traded that 2012 club option becomes a player option. This would mean he controls whether his option for 2012 is picked up, and if he declines it he would become a free agent after the 2011 season. This will surely be a big sticking point for any team looking to acquire his services later this year.

Donald at third?

Infielder Jayson Nix is the frontrunner to land the Indians' opening day gig as the regular third baseman when the season starts, but the Indians have several other options at their disposal they plan to look at and use at third base over the course of the 2011 season. One of those alternatives is infielder Jason Donald.

Donald played a lot last year with the big league club and showed flashes of potential with the bat hitting .253 with four homers and 24 RBI in 88 games in his Major League debut. He is also considered a solid defender with the versatility to play any of the three infield spots at third base, shortstop, and second base. While he is penciled in as the starting second baseman in Cleveland to open the 2011 season, he has worked out a lot at third base in the offseason to prepare for some possible playing time there this coming season.

After Nix and Donald, the Indians have several other options such as infielders Luis Valbuena, Cord Phelps, Jack Hannahan, and maybe even Jared Goedert who could fill in at the position this year.

Bottom line, no matter who is tabbed the starter at third base to start the season it should be a position in flux all year where several players get playing time until top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall is hopefully ready to take over full time duties by the end of the season.

Who's on second?

What the Indians do at third base this year will have an impact at what happens in the short term with second base. While Nix is the frontrunner at third base and Donald at second base to start the season, as the season moves along several changes are expected in a year where the Indians will look to incorporate more of their higher level minor league talent. As a result, it is very unlikely that both Nix and Donald will still be the starters at both positions by the end of the season.

Two of the Indians’ top second base prospects Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis will go to spring training as potential candidates to fill the position at some point during the year. They have no chance to open the season with the big league club for roster and developmental reasons, but they will get a good four to five weeks to show their skills to the major league staff. Since the major league staff does not see many of the Tribe's minor league players play over the course of the season, spring training offers the players a great opportunity to showcase their talents and to put them in the discussion for a callup later in the year.

If a need arises at second base, Phelps would likely get the first shot. He had a very solid campaign at Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus last year (.308 AVG, 8 homers, 54 RBI) and is pretty close to being major league ready. Unless Donald or Nix is injured, Phelps will open the 2011 season in Columbus where he can continue to fine tune his defense at second base and also play some third base and get comfortable there so he can be an option at either third base of second base this season in Cleveland.

Even though Kipnis had an outstanding year last season (.307 AVG, 16 homers, 74 RBI) and an impressive performance in the Arizona Fall League (.295 AVG, 3 homers, 19 RBI, .966 OPS), he is still just entering his second year playing the position after being converted from the outfield after the 2009 season. His bat is major league ready, but he needs at least a good half season in Triple-A to shore up his defense and prove he can be a reliable major league defender at second base.

Valbuena was the starter at second base to open the 2010 season and could still factor into the position at some point this year as well. He had an awful 2010 season at the plate in Cleveland (.193 AVG, 2 homers, 24 RBI), which was a surprise after his promising year in 2009 (.250 AVG, 10 homers, 31 RBI). There is still some belief he will get back to his 2009 level as an offensive performer, which as a utility player would be quite good, and is the role he likely will initially make the team in to start the season.

Clock management

Don't expect any players that have no service time or less than 30 days of service time to make the opening day roster for the Indians at the conclusion of spring training. The Indians are in a non-contending year and they have several options at almost every position they need to get a look at, so they are not desperate to start any rookies with the big league club at the outset of the season.

Those with little to no major league service time who will be at big league camp and could see time in the big leagues this year are right-handed pitchers Corey Kluber, Josh Judy, Zach McAllister, Vinnie Pestano, Zach Putnam, Bryce Stowell, and Alex White, infielders Lonnie Chisenhall, Jared Goedert, Cord Phelps, and Jason Kipnis, and outfielders Ezequiel Carrera and Nick Weglarz.

All of these players except maybe Goedert are almost certain to start the 2011 season at Triple-A Columbus. This is partly because of depth reasons as the Indians have other options above these players that the organization will initially want to get a look at, but the other reason is to finish off their development and manage their service clocks.

Managing service time is especially important for small market teams like the Indians as by starting a rookie with no big league service time in the minor leagues for just three weeks and then calling them up in late April gives the organization at least one whole additional year of roster control. So instead of a rookie making the team this year out of spring training and becoming a free agent after the 2016 season, they would not become a free agent until after the 2017 season.

There are also financial benefits of holding zero to little service time players in the minors until early-to-mid June so they avoid Super 2 status and don't hit arbitration early and thus become more expensive much sooner.

Parting Shots

First baseman Nate Recknagel was recently released by the Indians from their player development system. He was the odd man out in what figures to be a battle for playing time at first base and designated hitter at High-A Kinston and Double-A Akron. In three seasons with the Indians covering 180 total games the 24-year old hit .259 with 19 homers, 97 RBI and had a .775 OPS. ... An on-line report noted that SportsTime Ohio and WKYC-TV3 would only be airing 135 games this year. This is not correct as 155 games will be televised. … Triple-A Columbus and Double-A Akron will play two exhibition games before the start of their season. They will play in Akron on April 4th and in Columbus on April 6th. … Former Indians farmhand left-handed pitcher Kaimi Mead has been signed out of independent ball by the Colorado Rockies. He was released by the Indians last spring.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. His latest book the 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is also available for purchase on his site for a special year end closeout sale of $10.00 (including shipping and handling stateside).

Saturday, January 29, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #43 T.J. McFarland

T.J. McFarland – Left-handed Pitcher
Born: 06/08/1989 – Height: 6’3” – Weight: 190 – Bats: Left – Throws: Left

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: McFarland was a 4th round pick of the Indians in the 2007 Draft out of Amos Alonso Stagg High School (IL). He hurt his elbow as a high school junior but avoided Tommy John surgery, and when he complained of elbow soreness after signing with the Indians they played it safe and did not have him pitch in 2007. He finished last season ranked 7th in the organization in ERA (3.37) and 3rd in wins (11), and he finished 4th in the Carolina League in ERA and 2nd in wins.

Strengths: McFarland is an athletic groundball machine who has the weapons to be a starter and potentially is someone who will have three major league average pitches. He consistently pounds the strike zone with his two-seam sinking fastball that sits at 89-92 MPH and touches 94 MPH, and is his bread and butter pitch and one he really relies on. His sinker is considered one of the best in the system - second really only to right-hander Joe Gardner - as while he does not strike a lot of batters out he pitches to contact, throws strikes and relies on its heavy sinking action to get hitters to pound the ball into the ground. He also throws a slider and changeup, with the slider having the makings of a good breaking ball and the changeup is still a work in progress.

McFarland throws all three of his pitches for strikes and really trusts his fastball. He is not scared of contact, and as he continues to mature as a pitcher both physically and mentally he may see a jump in his strikeout rate due to potential velocity gains and improved command and action of his sinker. He works quickly and creates some deception in his delivery which helps keep hitters off balance. He is very durable and shows an ability to pitch deep into games with his excellent command and efficiency with his pitches. At this stage of his development looks a lot like Aaron Laffey when he was pitching in the lower levels of the Indians’ system several years ago.

McFarland’s success last year was a result of some very good control of his outstanding sinker where he consistently threw it for strikes and kept it down in the zone. He also showed a much improved mental approach to the game with significant gains in his maturity and mental toughness, and it paid off for him in the box scores. He also made some strides with his secondary stuff as he showed an improved ability to spot his changeup and slider and improved confidence in himself to just trust his stuff. He learned to pitch rather than throw the ball by hitters, and with a more refined pitch to contact approach he was able to get hitters to get themselves out by rolling over on balls at a high rate for routine groundball outs.

Opportunities: McFarland is still learning how to pitch and use his secondary offerings as he predominantly pitches with his fastball. He needs to continue to work on using his secondary offerings to make them reliable major league quality pitches and play up his fastball. The Indians have stressed damage control to him as he always seems to have one inning where he gives up multiple runs, so they want him to continue to work on limiting the damage when he gets in a jam to where it is just one run instead of two or three or four runs he allows. The Indians would also like him to show more strikeouts ability and fewer home runs, and also continue to work on his delivery mechanics with repeating his delivery.

Outlook: McFarland opened last season in the High-A Kinston bullpen in a piggyback situation with left-hander Nick Hagadone because of the abundance of starting pitching options at Kinston and Double-A Akron. As callups and injuries occurred, he found himself permanently in the Kinston starting rotation by mid-May and put together a very good season. Led by a high groundball rate (2.25 GO/AO) and a pitch to contact mentality, he continues to make progress every season and has established himself as an interesting pitching prospect going forward. He does not rank as high as he probably should mostly because of the presence of so many other highly rated pitchers in the system, whereas in another system lacking pitching depth he would probably be ranked 10-15 slots higher. He should open the 2011 season at Double-A Akron.

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGGSIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
200819GCL IndiansR345.07121055703131538.3142.56.21.55
200920Lake CountyA943.5825231201284864285.2753.16.31.41
201021AkronAA0011.2511495125.4294.511.32.75
201021KinstonA+1153.1324191261214494092.2462.86.51.27
MiLB Totals23133.7662533063281281999220.2732.96.51.39

Friday, January 28, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #44 Cole Cook

Cole Cook – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 10/18/1988 – Height: 6’6” – Weight: 215 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: The Indians selected Cook in the 5th round of the 2010 Draft out of Pepperdine University. As a draft eligible sophomore, the Indians signed him for $299,000. He was originally drafted out of high school by the Mariners in the 36th round of the 2007 Draft but did not sign. He missed his entire freshman season in 2008 due to a broken wrist he suffered while pulling the tarp off the field after a rain storm. His father is Peter MacKenzie, a character actor who has appeared in many TV shows and had parts in several major films.

Strengths: Cook is a tall right-handed pitcher with a lanky frame who is a strike thrower and has a good feel for pitching. He comes at hitters from a low three-quarters delivery with a four pitch mix of a fastball, slider, changeup and splitter. His four-seam fastball often works at 88-91 MPH and has touched 94 MPH, and he commands it well with good arm side run and sink down in the zone. His slider is often mistaken for a curveball because of its slurvy action and upper 70s velocity, but while it is an inconsistent pitch, when it is on it has good, tight break. His splitter has good tumbling action and is a pitch he often relies on to put hitters away with two strikes on them. His changeup is a work in progress though is improving and has shown good fade.

Because of Cook’s size it allows him to get good leverage on hitters and keep his ball on a nice downward plane. He has a bit of a herky-jerky delivery which helps create some deception and adds some life to his fastball. He is a tough competitor and very intelligent pitcher who piles up groundballs and aggressively attacks hitters without any fear of pitching inside.  He shows a knack for keeping balls in the yard as in 187 career college innings he allowed just seven home runs. Some comparisons that have been thrown around based solely on look and stuff is that of Jeff and Jerad Weaver.

Opportunities: Cook’s slider is probably his biggest weakness as while it shows good, sharp break at times and has the potential to be a swing-and-miss pitch for him, it is inconsistent and he often has trouble commanding it.  Because of his low arm slot he has a tendency to get under his slider which causes it to flatten out and get pounded. His long frame and herky-jerky delivery leave very little room for error in his delivery mechanics because with so many big moving parts it has a big effect on his command. He needs to continue to get bigger and stronger, and also work on refining his mechanics and the command of his secondary pitches to improve his chances for success.

Outlook: Cook is an advanced college arm who still has a lot of room for growth as a pitcher and may not be even close to all he can be yet. He has the pitch mix to develop into a middle-to-back of the rotation starter – a role he will be developed in initially to see what happens – but his pitching style, acumen, and stuff projects him best as a late inning reliever in the big leagues, possibly a setup man. He should open the 2011 season in the starting rotation at Low-A Lake County and could move quickly to High-A Kinston where he may spend most of his time this season.

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGGSIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
200920PepperdineC733.6916883573442079.1952.28.60.93
201021PepperdineC562.9314131041033432487.2582.17.51.22
201021Mahoning ValleyA-035.4044151492814.2264.88.41.47
MiLB Totals035.4044151492814.2264.88.41.47

Thursday, January 27, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #45 Bo Greenwell

Bo Greenwell – Outfielder
Born: 10/15/1988 – Height: 6’0” – Weight: 185 – Bats: Left – Throws: Left

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: Greenwell was taken by the Indians in the 6th round of the 2007 Draft out of Riverdale High School (FL).  Had he not signed with the Indians he had a scholarship to play baseball for the University of Miami, FL. He was a very good football player in high school where he played quarterback and safety, but he tore his ACL going into his senior season which significantly hurt his chances at a Division-1 college football scholarship. He is the son of former Red Sox outfielder Mike Greenwell. Last year he had an amazing month of April where in 21 games at Low-A Lake County he hit a blistering .405 (32-for-79) with 22 runs scored, 7 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 23 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and had a 1.142 OPS.

Strengths: Greenwell is a high energy player who showcases a lot of tools and ability in various facets of the game. He has made a ton of adjustments with his setup and his approach since he signed with the Indians, and it all really started to come together for him last year. He shows good strike zone discipline, good hands and uses the whole field well. While he has just average power potential the ball jumps off his bat and he has good gap power. He has very good speed and athleticism, and the Indians believe he can be a good base-stealer.

Last offseason Greenwell concentrated on his conditioning and lifting weights to improve his strength and agility, and he adjusted well to seeing a lot more breaking balls and off-speed stuff. The biggest change for him last year was that he started to believe in his abilities more and became much more confident at the plate, which are signs that he is starting to mature not only physically but mentally as well. He had a shoulder injury in 2008, but has otherwise proven to be very durable. He plays hard, is very confident, is a competitor, and learns well from his mistakes, which is something which was obviously instilled in him at a young age by his father.

Greenwell was a first baseman in high school, but upon signing with the Indians he was immediately moved to the outfield. He is still inexperienced and fine tuning his play in the outfield, but he has steadily improved the past few seasons and last season showed a lot of strides with his route running and throwing arm. He used to short-hand the ball and rush to where he is now able to slow everything down and make strong accurate throws. He has become a solid outfielder with room to be more, and is versatile where he can play all three positions. His strong season offensively prompted the Indians to make a move late last year to slide him over from his more customary left field position to center field. Prior to the move he had only played a handful of games in center field, playing there mostly with the rookie level Gulf Coast League team in 2007 and is where he would have played had he gone to school at the University of Miami, FL. After he gained about 20 pounds of muscle going into the 2008 season the Indians decided to develop him more as a corner outfielder so abandoned playing him in center field, but because he profiles better in center and lacks the bat to be a corner outfielder they moved him back to center field. With his sound approach, a knack for getting on base, and plus speed he fits better offensively in center field.

Opportunities: Greenwell spent a lot of time in high school working on football, so he came into the organization very raw. As a result, he has spent the better past of his three-plus year career developing his baseball skills, adapting to the professional game, and maturing. While his game took several positive steps last year, he will continue to develop and refine his hitting skills. He still needs more work using his body to get better leverage and keeping his hands through the ball when he swings so that he can hit with more authority. He is still adapting to playing center field everyday where he needs to pick up a lot of the nuances to the position like tendencies of the hitters, positioning, reading the ball off the bat to get quicker jumps, backing up outfielders, route running, and improving the accuracy of his throws.

Outlook: Greenwell's development is encouraging, and is a byproduct of him maturing and also a lot of hard work last offseason. He has made tremendous adjustments in his swing ability and setup since joining the organization, and it all started to come together last year. He just knows what kind of player he is and does not try to do too much, and on top of that has an impressive aptitude and unbelievable makeup. He brings a lot of raw ability with a good speed-power combo and an advanced approach at the plate for a player his age. For him to have a chance as an everyday player he will need to develop as a center fielder, and if he does not then he will probably become more of a Trevor Crowe kind of player who is a backup outfielder who is versatile, runs well, and has some pop in his bat. He should open the 2011 season at High-A Kinston, but has a good chance to finish the season at Double-A Akron.

YearAgeTeamLvlGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
200718GCL IndiansR371441231500816245.215.298.250.548
200819GCL IndiansR4616018428321423174.263.359.388.747
200920Mahoning ValleyA-726592004222.346.393.423.816
200920Lake CountyA60214296216122621237.290.359.402.761
201021Lake CountyA662484777132436323415.310.395.427.822
201021KinstonA+65240317091221255110.292.364.363.727
MiLB Totals28110321422915371010911915143.282.361.376.737

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #46 Jared Goedert

Jared Goedert – Third Baseman
Born: 05/25/198 – Height: 6’2” – Weight: 200 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: The Indians originally drafted Goedert out of high school in the 36th round of the 2003 Draft, but he chose to go to college and the Indians took him again when he was eligible in the 9th round of the 2006 Draft out of Kansas State.  He had a monster spring training last year hitting .426 with a .726 slugging percentage in 53 plate appearances (4 HR, 15 RBI), which served as the catalysts for his very good comeback season. He finished 1st in the farm system in home runs (27) and 2nd in RBI (83).

Strengths: Goedert is an offensive-oriented player who is physically strong, has above average power, and drives the ball well from gap to gap. The ball just explodes off his bat when he squares it up, and he has home run power to all fields.  He has good downward motion and a consistent bat path with his swing which generates a lot of line drives and some good backspin on fly balls which results in them carrying further. As a hitter he has a low maintenance swing with a good approach and hits the ball where it is pitched. He has a good eye at the plate and is not afraid to hit with two strikes. As a person he is very low key and quiet, but a mentally tough player.

Goedert has never been highly regarded as a defender as the potential with the bat has always been his best asset. His sub par defense is what held him back from getting a call topside to the big league team last year as the Indians want to ensure he is at least an average major league defender before calling him up. The Indians still consider him an option at third base, and while he makes all the routine plays and has an above average arm at third base, his footwork, hands and throwing accuracy are not up to par to the standards of a major league third basemen. Due to need and to find him playing time, the Indians will likely use him in a corner utility role this upcoming season to give him playing time at third base, first base, left field, designated hitter and maybe even second base. They like his bat and think it plays in the big leagues, it is just about finding him a position and role on the field.

A shoulder issue has hampered Goedert throughout his minor league career. He had surgery on his left labrum in 2006, but the injury never really healed and he has had numerous setbacks since which have affected his play over the years. His problems at the plate in 2008 and 2009 appeared to be confidence related as he was dealing with a lead arm injury and was afraid to get extension in fear he would hurt it again. He had lost his swing, but after a lot of work last offseason to find a comfort zone that was pain free and still generated power he found it again and made an adjustment by being a little bit quicker and shorter to the ball. With his health and renewed confidence in his swing, last year he once again was driving the ball with authority and pounding the gaps.

Opportunities: The two biggest areas of opportunity for Goedert are his health and defense. He has battled health issues with his shoulder and had an oblique issue in 2009 which limited him, so he has developed a track record of being injury prone. At third base he needs to continue working on getting his feet moving and making good throws across the diamond. His best chance as a major league player is to become versatile where he can play multiple positions, so he needs to continue working on adjusting and adapting to playing first base and the outfield. In addition to the defense, he also needs to continue working on his two-strike approach to remain just as aggressive with two strikes as he is early in counts.

Outlook: Goedert is a great story considering where he was coming into last season with barely holding onto a job to where he is now as a potential big league option this year. He had an incredible breakout performance in 2007, but then followed that up with two poor seasons in 2008 and 2009 and became an afterthought going into last season. The Indians continued to believe that with his swing he only needed health and the results would return, and as hoped it all came together for him last year with one heck of a comeback season. His big power year last season showed that the power numbers he put up early in 2007 at Single-A Lake County were not an aberration, and serves as a tantalizing appetizer for the power production he could potentially have in the big leagues if given a chance to play. Due to his versatility, age, and injury history, the Indians may wish to have him open the 2011 season in Cleveland as a right-handed bat off the bench. If not, he will open the season at Triple-A Columbus and split time between several positions.

YearAgeTeamLvlGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
200621Mahoning ValleyA-63238316414232719281.269.328.382.710
200722Lake CountyA461654460100165135290.364.475.7151.190
200722KinstonA+3512523329042323251.256.369.424.793
200823KinstonA+12646775119231107457771.255.336.373.709
200924AkronAA92313347022153734471.224.309.348.657
201025AkronAA44163265314073216352.325.382.540.922
201025ColumbusAAA813185483231205137772.261.345.528.873
MiLB Totals48717892874811155652952213188.269.352.448.800

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #47 Jorge Martinez

Jorge Martinez – Shortstop
Born: 03/29/1993 – Height: 6’2” – Weight: 170 – Bats: Switch – Throws: Right

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: Martinez was signed by the Indians as an undrafted minor league free agent in July of 2009 out of the Dominican Republic. He is a low profile signing from the Indians’ 2009 International class, but they are high on him and he immediately impressed in Instructional League in the fall of 2009.

Strengths: Martinez is a long framed switch-hitter who projects well with the bat. At a young age he has the tools to be a solid hitter and has already shown flashes of his good ability to handle the bat and hit the ball with authority and pound the gaps. He is an average runner, and for a player his size shows good quickness with his feet and a lot of range at shortstop. His plus arm strength is impressive as he fires the ball effortlessly across the diamond. He shows the maturity and moxie of a 20-21 year old at shortstop and just oozes confidence on the field.

Opportunities: There is no question Martinez has the tools to stay at shortstop and the Indians were very happy with his development defensively last year. Most of his errors last season were not a result of him being a bad defender, but instead it was him just learning to play the position since he is very raw and new to organized ball. The Indians would like to see his bat take a leap forward this year. They will continue to focus on getting him to develop a plan when he hits and to improve his plate discipline. Some of this will come from instruction, but a lot of it will have to come by playing and gaining more experience.

Outlook: Though his numbers may say otherwise, Martinez made a lot of strides in his first full year in the organization in 2010. The Indians are very high on him, which should be quite obvious after they had him come play in the states right away and completely skip playing in the Dominican Summer League. He has a good chance to open the 2011 season at Low-A Lake County in a three-man rotation between second base and shortstop with Tony Wolters and Nick Bartolone, though the Indians may opt to instead have him remain in extended spring training to start the season and then go to short season Single-A Mahoning Valley when their season starts in June.

YearAgeTeamLvlGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
201017AZL IndiansR4619023415022110413.216.256.274.530
MiLB Totals4619023415022110413.216.256.274.530

Monday, January 24, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #48 Jordan Brown

Jordan Brown – First Baseman
Born: 12/18/1983 – Height: 6’0” – Weight: 205 – Bats: Left – Throws: Left

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: Brown was selected by the Indians in the 4th round of the 2005 Draft out of the University of Arizona. He won the Carolina League MVP Award at High-A Kinston in 2006, and followed that up with the Eastern League MVP Award at Double-A Akron in 2007 where his .333 batting average also won him the league batting title. His back-to-back MVP seasons in 2006 and 2007 are only rivaled by Victor Martinez as he won the Carolina League MVP in 2001 and the Eastern League MVP in 2002 in successive years just like Brown. He also hit .336 and won the International League batting title in 2009 while playing for Triple-A Columbus.

Strengths: Brown is not only one of the best hitters in the entire Indians’ organization, but is one of the best in all of the minors as well. He is a pure hitter who has excellent hand-eye coordination and is a tough out for pitchers because he battles on every pitch and makes hard, consistent contact. He only has average power, but he shows good power to the gaps and has a knack for piling up doubles. He won’t blow anyone away with eye popping production numbers, but he is a consistent performer with very few cold spells. He is an average runner who displays good instincts and intelligence on the base paths. He does not have great physical abilities, but he is a very intelligent player, has outstanding work ethic, and is as strong-willed and mentally tough as they come.

Brown came into the organization as a hacker, but he quickly adapted as a hitter in his first few seasons by understanding the value of getting good pitches to hit. From that understanding he has developed into one of the best strike zone managers in baseball. His high contact rate, high batting average and low power approach has often had him compared to the likes of former Indian Sean Casey. The difference is his defense as he is considered a below average defender at both first base and left field. He found himself playing a lot of first base last year, especially late in the season, which was somewhat of a surprise considering the Indians had seemingly abandoned him at the position, and it appears it will be the position they will focus on him at in 2011.

Brown has had a tough time avoiding the injury bug in his career with the Indians. He suffered a hand injury in 2005 which resulted in him missing almost a month at short-season Single-A Mahoning Valley, he had scar tissue and bone chips in his knee which led to arthroscopic surgery after his 2007 season at Double-Akron, he suffered from patellar tendonitis to his left knee in 2008 at Buffalo which affected him for most of the first half of the season there, in 2009 at Triple-A Columbus he had a shoulder injury late in the season which sidelined him for three weeks, and then last season he injured his right knee in spring training while he was doing outfield drills.

Brown had to have arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus which resulted in him missing all of the exhibition season in spring training and an opportunity to play in the spring and show his stuff to the big league staff in Cleveland. He started the year in extended spring training on a rehab assignment and missed the first month of the season before going to Triple-A Columbus at the end of April. When he came back he struggled with his swing in the early part of the season but by the end of the season was once again driving the balls to all parts of the field.

Opportunities: There is no question that Brown can hit and he has little he needs to do from that perspective other than trying to drive the ball a little more and putting up more quality at bats against left-handed pitching. His two biggest areas of opportunity are his health and defense. Injuries have been a red flag for him in his career and combined with his below average defense have caused him to miss a lot of time and opportunities with the Indians. For a player without power to be considered an everyday option at those two run producing positions he has to play above average defense, which is something he does not do. At his age there is little chance for him to become an above average defender, but there is still some opportunity for him to become an average major league defender. The Indians pushed him defensively last year and he made some positive strides at first base and in the outfield, but he still needs improvement with his route running and getting better jumps on balls in the outfield, and at first base he needs to continue to improve his footwork around the bag.

Outlook: It has been an interesting twist of ups and downs for Brown in the past year. He was finally added to the 40-man roster in November of 2009, then was injured in February last year, finally made his big league debut in August, and then was removed from the 40-man roster this past January. His issues defensively, some poorly timed injuries, and the lack of a big run producing bat that teams typically like at first base and left field is why he has had limited opportunities with the Indians and why teams passed on him in the Rule 5 Draft in 2008 and did not claim him on waivers this past January. The Indians are thin at first base as they really only have Matt LaPorta available to play there everyday at the big league level. If LaPorta has an injury or continues to struggle as a hitter at the big league level, the Indians could call on Brown to fill in at first base at some point over the course of the 2011 season. A second opportunity could be all he needs to get his career back on track. He should open the 2011 season at Triple-A Columbus, his fourth straight season in Triple-A.

YearAgeTeamLvlGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
200521Mahoning ValleyA-197515191037372.253.291.387.678
200622Kinston IndiansA+12547371137267158751594.290.362.469.831
200723AkronAA127483851613621176635611.333.421.484.905
200824BuffaloAAA1094205211830375135673.281.337.417.754
200925ColumbusAAA11141765140351156730642.336.381.532.913
201026ColumbusAAA83326319728186721482.298.341.463.804
201026ClevelandML268792070024100.230.272.310.582
MiLB Totals5742194319672156145935520330124.306.369.471.840
MLB Totals268792070024100.230.272.310.582

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Tribe Happenings: Long term deals not likely (yet) for signees

Cabrera may be the first player to sign a
long term deal (Photo: AP)
Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Tribe notebook….

Signed, sealed, and delivered

The Indians completed negotiations this week with the final four arbitration eligible players on their roster.

Back in December they inked right-handed relievers Jensen Lewis and Joe Smith to one year deals just hours before the filing deadline date, and then this week they agreed to one year deals with shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, right-handed closer Chris Perez, left-handed reliever Rafael Perez, and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.

For the 2011 season Cabrera will be paid $2.025 million, Chris Perez $2.25 million, Rafael Perez $1.33 million, and Choo gets $3.975 million. For the two deals reached back in December, Lewis will earn $650,000 and Smith $870,000 this season.

The signings this past week came just hours before the arbitration deadline where if a deal was not reached, the club and player would go arbitration. With the signings of all of the Indians’ arbitration eligible players they avoid going to arbitration for the 20th straight year. The last time they went to arbitration was in 1991 for Greg Swindell and Jerry Browne. With the players under contract, the Indians payroll now sits at around $46.5 million.

Why one year deals?

The signing of all the players to one year deals does not mean long term contract extensions are out of play.

Also, the fact they signed one year deals does not mean that all of these players are free agents at the end of the season as they are all under the Indians control for several more years. The Indians control the rights of Cabrera, Choo, Rafael Perez, and Smith through the 2013 season, and control the rights of Chris Perez and Lewis through the 2014 season.

Going year to year with arbitration eligible players can be beneficial for the team and the players. Teams are able to control long term payroll and not worry about being tied down to a bad long term deal given to a player who struggles after agreeing to the deal. The one year deals also allow the player to hit free agency sooner.

All of that comes at a risk as a player is banking on health and production the next three years instead of taking the financial security of a long term deal, and the team is risking a player continuing to be very productive and becoming very expensive in arbitration and losing him earlier to free agency than they may have had they signed him to a long term deal.

Long term discussions

As the Indians have done in the past with signing the likes of Albert Belle, Charles Nagy, Kenny Lofton and others in the 90s, and then recently Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner and others, there are some players they will look to sign to long term deals to carry them through their arbitration years and the first one or two years of free agency.

This typically requires give and take by the club and the player, as the player gives up potential future earnings for the security of a guaranteed long term contract while the team gets to buy the first year or two of free agency by taking the risk of a long term guaranteed deal and potentially paying them more through their arbitration years.

At the moment the Indians are not close to a long term deal with any of the players that were arbitration eligible this year. They will continue to go year to year with Lewis, Smith and Rafael Perez due to the volatility of performance that comes from big league relievers.

Due to the presence of mega agent Scott Boras and his high demands along with an inflated outfield market the Indians almost definitely will continue to go year to year with Choo. Do not expect any long term deal to be announced this spring, though things on that front could possibly change later in the season.

The way things stand currently, Cabrera and Chris Perez look to be the most likely fits for a long term deal. Perez will be hard since as a closer his asking price will be high, and as a reliever the Indians may wait at least a half season before becoming more serious in negotiations.

If anyone is signed to a long term deal this spring, Cabrera looks to be the best shot, and that is decent at best. He and the Indians have mutual interest in getting a long term deal done, so there is some momentum there for a potential deal sometime this year, maybe as early as spring training.

Arbitration 101

For those unfamiliar with the arbitration process, you may be wondering what all of this is about and why these players only receive one year deals. The arbitration process for free agents (players with six or more service time) is a little different, but I will explain the process below for players that are arbitration eligible and have less than six years of service time.

Service time is accrued by each day a player is on an active 25-man Major League roster or Major League disabled list (both 15-day and 60-day). Once a player accrues 172 days of service it is considered one year of service time, and then the next count to 172 begins to achieve another year of service time. As these days and years add up a club has control of what they pay them if they are under three years of service time, which usually is at the Major League minimum of $400,000 or slightly above that. For example, as a player with less than three years of service time Choo made $461,000 in 2010.

Once a player has earned at least three full years of service time they become arbitration eligible. What this means is they now have the opportunity to be paid a fair contract and have some leverage to earn a lot more money depending on their performance and the market. Players have three arbitration years until they become eligible for free agency once they accrue six full seasons of service time (unless they are bound by a long term contract).

The arbitration process calls for the Major League team to offer the player arbitration by the December 12th filing date. If the club does not sign the player or offer them arbitration before the filing date, they become a free agent.

For those players that a club offers arbitration to, the club and the player’s representation continue to negotiate a contract. In January the player and the club each submit a salary figure to the league for arbitration, and if neither party can agree to a contract for the upcoming season by January 18th, the case goes before a three-person panel of professional arbitrators in February.

At the hearing, all parties are required to attend and each has one hour to argue its case and 30 minutes for rebuttal. The panel considers the player’s performance and leadership, the team’s record and attendance, and also the comparable salaries of other players with similar service time. The arbitrators then determine what the player will be paid for the upcoming season.

Grover back in the fold

Earlier in the week Mike Hargrove agreed to join the Indians organization this year in a special advisor role. His role will be a versatile one that exposes him to all parts of the organization where he will assist manager Manny Acta’s coaching staff in spring training, join SportsTime Ohio in the booth for several TV broadcasts, and serve as a resource for the many business, community and charitable endeavors of the Indians.

“I am very excited about the opportunity to once again be a Cleveland Indian and am very much looking forward to helping any way that I can,” Hargrove said in a statement this week. “Even when I was away and managing other teams I always had an interest in what was happening with the Indians. All I can really say is that it is good to be home.”

Known as the “Human Rain Delay”, Hargrove has spent 22 years in the Indians organization as a player, coach and manager. He hit .292 in 888 games over seven years with the Indians from 1979-1985, and in 12 big league seasons had an incredible 965 walks to just 550 strikeouts in 6693 plate appearances.

As manager of the Indians from 1991-1999, Hargrove went 721-591 including two American League titles and five American League Central Division crowns. He ranks second all-time in club history in managerial wins behind Lou Boudreau (728), third in managerial winning percentage (.550) and is the only Indians manager to guide the Indians to two American League pennants. He was inducted into the Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame in 2008.

With the passing of the legendary Bob Feller a few weeks back, one can say the title of Mr. Indian has been passed onto Hargrove as he has always been a fan favorite and actively been a part of the organization in some way for over 30 years.

Shuey named to Kinston hall

Former Indians reliever Paul Shuey (1994-2002) was inducted into the Kinston Professional Baseball Hall of Fame this week. He will be formally inducted at Kinston’s annual Hot Stove Banquet on March 10th. Kinston is the advanced Single-A affiliate of the Cleveland Indians.

Shuey went to school at Raleigh Millbrook High School (NC), is a former All-American at the University of North Carolina, and after being drafted and signed by the Indians in the first round of the 1992 Draft he played at Kinston in 1993 and 1994. He made 15 appearances for Kinston in 1993 going 1-0 with a 4.84 ERA, and made 13 appearances in 1994 at Kinston going 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA with a team high eight saves before making his Major League debut with the Indians that same year.

Parting Shots

Former Indians catcher Wyatt Toregas has signed a minor league contract with an invite to big league spring training with the Pittsburgh Pirates. In seven seasons in the Indians’ minor league system he hit .262 with 52 homers, 284 RBI, and .736 OPS in 536 games. He made his Major League debut at the end of the 2009 season with the Indians where in 19 games he went 9-for-51 (.176) at the plate. … The Low-A Lake County Captains unveiled their 2010 Midwest League championship rings this week. To see them, go to CaptainsBaseball.com. … Finally, the new 2011 Indians prospect guide I am completing is still targeted to go to press at the end of this month or beginning of February. I will continue to post details on its availability here.