But hang in there Tribe fans, because there finally appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel and the organization may finally be on the upswing.
A lot of this has to do with some talent they have assembled that is already playing at the Major League level, but most of it has to do with them a lot of the talent on the cusp of joining those already in Cleveland.
The Indians have put together one of the strongest farm systems in all of baseball with the help of some very good drafts of late and an influx of upper level talent from veteran for prospect trades the past few years. Whether or not you agree with what players they have acquired in trades, selected in the draft, or signed internationally, the bottom line is that the system is as strong and deep as it has ever been.
There have been some recent positive developments at the big league level from the farm system with the likes of catcher Carlos Santana, lefty reliever Rafael Perez, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, right-handed starter Fausto Carmona, right-handed starter Carlos Carrasco, and others. Others like infielder Jason Donald, outfielder Michael Brantley, catcher Lou Marson, right-handed pitcher Josh Tomlin, and first baseman Matt LaPorta have shown flashes of being solid to good players, but need more time to what they can be. And yes, there have been some disappointments with the likes of outfielder Trevor Crowe, third baseman Andy Marte, left-handed pitcher Jeremy Sowers, left-hander David Huff, and others.
But that is the way things work with prospects. It is the cost of doing business as some live up to expectations and excel, but a majority fail to fall short of the hype.
That is where strength in numbers is so important and why banking on just a handful of players to "make it" can create a problem. The more options you have, the more times you can afford to miss.
Whether or not strength in numbers amounts to anything in the long run for the Indians is up to their Player Development Department to develop these players into options at the big league level. Time will tell.
There is no Carlos Santana who clearly resides above all and as the #1 prospect in the organization, but there are four or five prospects that have a legitimate case to be the #1 prospect in the organization this year. After those five, depending on who you talk to, there are as many as 25-30 guys who could round out the top ten.
That's the depth talking, and why this will be another important year to see the development of many players on the diamond. Last year the Indians for the most part had a very successful year in the minors with the development of their players and only had a few serious injuries to priority players. Hopefully they can repeat the success of last season, and if they do the big league team will be much better for it in 2011 and beyond.
While the organization may not have any player in the farm system at the moment considered a top flight All Star caliber prospect (most organizations only have one or two), a lot can change over the course of the season. Who considered Carlos Santana a top flight prospect going into 2008? Baseball America had him ranked as the Los Angeles Dodgers 25th best prospect going into that season, yet by the end of that season he was considered a no doubt star in the making and the #1 prospect in the Indians organization.
That is the beauty of the minor league season. Some players improve their stock, some see it plummet. What looks like depth at the start of the season is not by the end. What can be a weakness today becomes a strength tomorrow.
So while the Indians may not have a crème de la crème guy at the top of their farm system going into the 2011 season, because of some very good drafts of late and good signings internationally there are several players this year who certainly have the potential to jump into elite that status.
It is going to be another fun year following the developments in the Indians’ farm system and draft, so enjoy the ride and most importantly have fun!
Strengths and Weaknesses:
The strength of the Indians farm system is its depth in pitching. They have power arms of all shapes, sizes and abilities at all levels and in all roles. They do not have anyone presently viewed as an ace in waiting, but those perceptions change quickly and they have several candidates who could fill such a role like lefty Drew Pomeranz, right-hander Jason Knapp, right-hander Alex White, or even one of their young promising Latin arms way down the food chain in rookie ball. In the bullpen they have arms all over the place with guys like right-hander Bryce Stowell, left-hander Nick Hagadone, right-hander Zach Putnam, right-hander Josh Judy and others.
The Indians also have a lot of depth at second base, third base and the outfield. At second base they have Jason Kipnis and Cord Phelps. At third base they have Lonnie Chisenhall, Giovanny Urshela, Kyle Bellows, and Juan Romero. In the outfield they have Nick Weglarz and LeVon Washington.
The weakest areas of the organization are shortstop and first base. The Indians do not have any players in the system who currently project to be a big league regular. Beau Mills, Jordan Brown, and Wes Hodges are the best at the position, but all of them are in rapid decline as far as prospect standing goes. At shortstop the Indians have absolutely no one in the upper levels considered to have everyday big league potential, though they have lots of promising shortstops on the come in the lower levels with the likes of Tony Wolters, Jorge Martinez, and Ronnie Rodriguez.
Eligibility:
The criteria to determine who is eligible for the 2011 prospect ranking requires that a player must still be rookie eligible (under 50.0 career innings pitched or less than 130 career at bats in the big leagues). Like most other publications, service time is not considered. The only players not eligible for these rankings are those who have yet to play stateside, namely those players who played the entire 2010 season in the rookie level Dominican Summer League (DSL) or were a 2010 international signing and did not play last year. The reason for this is simple, in that I have not seen most of these players play and a lot of the scouts I know have not seen them either. So, the opinions and info is practically non-existent except for what I have learned in conversations with the Indians. While no DSL players are in this listing, several will be included in my 2011 Latin Top 15 listing in the upcoming book.
Ranking Guidelines:
Some may wonder what the basis is behind the rankings. While some people rate prospects purely on results (stats), some on standing (class level/age), and some purely on potential (projection), I try to combine all three to try and strike a balance. Admittedly, I generally favor projection more, especially with the very young kids versus some of the minor league veterans.
Two things to note in the ranking are that relievers and older players will typically be ranked low. The Indians have a lot of relievers, but the general rule of thumb is the pitchers deemed to have higher upside are being developed as starters. Once those pitchers no longer are an option as a starter they typically move into a relief role, which bumps a lot of the pitchers already in a relief role into a much smaller role or out of the system completely. Players already in a relief role have limited upside unless they throw in the upper 90s or have a devastating secondary pitch, so many high profile relievers may find themselves in the 30-50 range in the ranking.
Also, older players in the higher levels who may have once been a high level prospect but look to have plateaued as far as their value goes will not rank well. The rankings are based entirely on upside and what kind of player they can become, and is not who is closest to the big leagues. As a result, someone who has been in Triple-A for awhile and who may also be on the 40-man roster may not exactly rank as high as a lot of other younger players still clawing their way up through the system. This is due to limited upside for the older player as compared to a greater upside for the younger ones viewed to have significant upside.
Bottom line, it comes down what value the player has to a big league team and what kind of big leaguer they can be. The rankings are arbitrary and are really just a guideline to show the players to watch out for and most importantly provide some information on each player so fans know who they are.
Almost all of the information in these scouting reports comes from my notes in conversations I have had with various Indians executives, players, coaches, scouts, and other non-Indians personnel over the course of the last year. I have also supplemented where necessary with information I obtained over the year from comments Farm Director Ross Atkins, Amateur Scouting Director Brad Grant, and Scouting Director John Mirabelli have made via radio or print, as well as some information from other media outlets.
Who are some guys to watch for potential breakout years?
Keep an eye out for right-handed pitcher Anthony Dischler, third baseman Giovanny Urshela, right-handed pitcher Felix Sterling, shortstop Jorge Martinez, and infielder Ronnie Rodriguez. The Indians have been much more aggressive of late with their younger players, particularly their Latin players as they had nearly a half dozen 2010 signees debut stateside at rookie level Arizona, so several players could be on the verge of a breakout season this year.
A few guys who may or may not find their way into the ranking who are considered low level prospects who could make some noise this year are left-handed pitcher Kyle Petter, right-handed pitcher Marty Popham, left-handed pitcher Mike Rayl, and first baseman/outfielder Chase Burnette.
Thanks for the support, enjoy the reports and information, and most of all, good luck to the players this upcoming season.
Up Next: The countdown begins on Friday with #50.
Everything on this site is free, but for those interested in making any monetary contributions to help support the stability and growth of this site please click on the "Donate" button below.
1 comments:
Let's do this!
Post a Comment