A new IPI is coming

Okay, as I have been mentioning over the past several months, things are about to change in a big way with the IPI. I had planned on making this change a few months ago, but wanted to make sure it was done right and wanted to take the time to research this new venture I would be getting myself into.

Sometime in the next week the Indians Prospect Insider will be getting a makeover and moving from a site hosted on a blog network (Google’s Blogspot) to an independently hosted website. The site address will stay the same and the site may look quite familiar, but the site has been rebuilt by an actual web designer and will have some cool new features and a new look to it.

This change in host and the recreation of the site was necessitated by the site now going to a premium platform. Many articles on the site – the majority actually – will still be “free” so to speak, but now several articles with inside information, scouting reports, player news, and so on will be hidden behind a pay door and be available only to subscribers.

This was a tough decision and something I had contemplated for years. I had been balancing life between this site as a glorified hobby and a real full time job in the business world. Over time this hobby turned into a job with full time hours of its own – though with minimal pay – and the boundaries between my real job and this site began to overlap.

After what I went through last spring with my kidney cancer diagnosis and the time I had to reflect on things I realized I was overextending myself and needed to either pull the plug on this baseball gig or dive into it full time. When I thought about it more I realized that this is my passion and this is where I want to be. So, I decided to leave the business world last fall and focus on this baseball venture full time. That meant I would need to be creative in finding ways to support myself and my family in order to keep doing this.

I have been contacted by numerous media outlets over the years and very recently to bring the IPI to their site and take over content manager duties, but I wanted to remain independent and see if I can do this on my own first. This is where the new premium membership comes into play.

I understand that for many this will be an immediate turn off and I may lose some readers because of this decision. I will be sorry to see that happen, but I believe in my work and my hope is that many people will find it acceptable to pay the $2-3 a month for a lot of firsthand information that I provide that I believe is informative, accurate, and well researched.

I have not decided on a cost structure yet, but I do not expect an annual membership to cost more than $29.99 ($2.50 a month). There will also be a monthly option as well, though of course will cost more over 12 months than a regular annual subscription. And again, a lot of articles will still be able to be read without a subscription.

With this new venture I have a lot of great ideas and things I want to focus on now that I am doing this full time. I am already working on a weekly web TV show that will be produced in-house, a weekly/monthly radar report with radar gun readings for pitchers I saw that week/month, more specific team coverage with the addition of more writers and site written game recaps, a site scoreboard, an IPI app for the phone, player guest blogs, and lots more. I'll be going to a lot more games, talking to more scouts, and many other things as well. I am also toying with the idea of starting up a Reds Prospect Insider site to complement this one (it would be non-premium).

If you have any thoughts you would like to share on this, please feel free to provide them in the comments section below or by emailing me at tlastoria@indiansprospecinsider.com. I am open to any and all suggestions whether good or bad.

Moving on...

The hope is to have the new site go live on Monday, which is also when the new 2012 Top 50 Indians Prospect countdown will conveniently begin. I have been holding off on that in order to align it with the new site launch.

In addition to that, the new 2012 Cleveland Indians Prospect Insider book is nearing completion. The book will feature scouting reports and player profiles for over 180 players in the Cleveland Indians’ farm system, and have a report written for EVERY SINGLE PLAYER that played stateside last year. Those familiar with the book know there will be lots of other goodies in it as well with tool grades, charts, reference material and lots more. I will share more on the book availability hopefully sometime late next week.

Thanks again for the support and for being loyal readers, and I hope you will join me in the next chapter of the IPI.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI.

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Indians' Infatuation with Yoenis Cespedes?

Yoennis Cespedes (Photo: AP)

Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Bieber have more in common than you may think...

Huh?

Well, both were ‘discovered’ by YouTube and became instant viral icons. If you have been M.I.A. of late, you can see the showcase and the encore of the Cespedes scouting satire here. Bieber was signed by musician Usher while Cespedes is rumored to ink with one of six potential MLB clubs. Though the YouTube video made “El Talento” an international phenomenon, scouts have long been waiting on the Cuban to defect to the States as he’s been considered one of their finest talents for several years now.

Next, both of these pop culture icons (in their own right) have incredible marketing teams. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you can’t deny the power of their marketing: Bieber’s is self-explanatory while Cespedes’ majestic promo video has been labeled as the ‘greatest scouting video of all time’ among many in the baseball community.  He has single handedly hushed conversations about other top Cuban prospects—some of whom may have even higher ceilings than Cespedes—thanks in large part to his super fame from these brandish videos.

Fortunately for the world, that’s where the similarities conclude...

Cleveland is one of the six teams “very interested” in Cespedes.

The Indians’ outfield needs include (but are not limited to):
-A right handed hitting power bat
-Defense
-Speed
-Outfield versatility
-Youth

What am I missing? If the Indians’ marketing department is looking for some big screen entertainment in-between-innings, Cespedes looks to fill in there, too. Cespedes has got all those on his side and Cleveland would appear a fine fit.

At 26 years old, he’d fit both the short and long term plans for the Tribe.  The YouTube sensation is a centerfielder at the moment, though he can plausibly shift to either of the corners.  With Sizemore’s contract expiring at the end of 2012, Cespedes could slide to center at season’s end, or even spell Sizemore there in 2012.

In 2011, Cespedes hit a corrupt .333/.424/.667 in the Cuban League—corrupt based less on his government and more on the fact that the Cuban batting numbers trend on the barbaric side.  Despite that, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldsteins suggests many scouts still rate Cespedes’ power as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale.  While he projects to be just an average hitter at this stage, he still offers the almighty five-tool player tag with good defensive abilities and speed included. The Cuban defector bombarded international pitching in the 2009 World Baseball Classic as he hit .458/.480/1.000 over Cuba’s six games.  It’s no reason why they’ve tagged him “La Potencia.”

Cespedes’ potential is seemingly infinite and he could become a real impact player in the majors. With no centerfield-ready options on the farm with tremendous upside, signing Cespedes would fill a premium position for years to come and provide one of the finest up the middle trios in Santana-Lindor-Cespedes in the future.

Obviously, the major league friction between the Tribe and Cespedes will be about the Cuban Pesos Cespedes is seeking; the asking price for Cespedes ranges from the Aroldis Chapman deal of $30.25M over six years to even more fruitful figures.  The Rangers signed fellow Cuban centerfielder, Leonys Martin, to a five year, $15.5M deal a year ago and though Martin is three years younger (presumably), he is considered a few levels below Cespedes’ ability, yet still got a big time contract.

Then again, Cleveland has been reserved all offseason when it comes to free agency (beyond passing out minor league contracts and spring invites like Halloween candy) and no one expected the other Ohio squad to sign the last Cuban star, Aroldis Chapman, two winters ago.  If the Indians want to counter the Tigers — who are also still reportedly in on Cespedes according to ESPN’s Jim Bowden — they’ll have to pull the trigger on a high risk-high reward move like this. Antonetti showed he’s willing and able to with the Jimenez trade, so why not go one step further?  Cespedes would instantly supplant Francisco Lindor as the team’s top prospect and would (again, presumably) be MLB ready.

Last Monday, Cuba’s newest missile was granted free agency in MLB with the Indians, Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles all reportedly in on El Talento.

Clearly, Cespedes is a physical specimen and can be a major league threat, but how sure are we that he’s worth the money?  It feels like every player out of Cuba is more highly hyped than the last one, from Orlando Hernandez to Jose Contreras to Kendrys Morales to Alexei Ramirez to Aroldis Chapman.  While this quintet has had success ranging from mediocre to substantial in the majors, the learning curve is always the greatest variable between the Cuban leagues and the majors.  Just ask first baseman Leslie Anderson, Tampa Bay’s very own highly touted Cuban import whose career parallels that of Michael Aubrey more so than Kendrys Morales.

For comparison’s sake, let’s compare two of the finer Cuban hitters in MLB, Kendrys Morales’ and Alexei Ramirez, and compare their Cuban stats with their ML stats:

Courtesy BeisbolCubano:

Ramirez hit to a tune of .332/.394/.503 in the Cuban League over six seasons.
He broke into the majors at age 26, and since ’08, has hit .279/.323/.421 in the bigs.

Morales, in two full seasons at age 19 and 20, hit .358/.445/.593 in the Cuban leagues.
He broke into the majors at age 23, and since ’06, has hit .284/.336/.502 in the bigs.

So what does this small sample size suggest? Cespedes won’t hit to the robust tune he did in the Cuban league, but we already knew that.  And though its surely merited to a player's skill level, the track record suggests many of the Cuban players take 2-3 years to develop in the majors despite their age.  Moreover, they often take longer to adjust their plate discipline and tend to hone low OBP’s—Alexei Ramirez walked a poultry 18 times in his rookie season (though a respectable 51 times in ’11).

With that said, Cespedes must be handled with care like any prospect; there is a possibility that Cespedes would be sent down to the minors and won’t be as refined a product as his outlandish advertisements suggest.  Much to the curiosity of baseball scouts, Cespedes participated in winter ball and scuffled as he went batted .145 (5-35) with 10 K’s and a homer in a brief but questionable stint (as he couldn't feasibly 'improve' his stock).

This further begs the question, would he be able to help the Indians in ’12 and ’13, their two primed campaigns? The aforementioned is posed as a rhetorical question and with upwards of $35 million dependent on an even more indefinite answer, it certainly does not match the conservative approach the Tribe typically has taken in past seasons.

The other potential worry on Cespedes is his age.  As the Tribe learned with Fausto “Roberto Heredia Hernandez” Carmona, you can never be certain of these things, especially when it comes to a country like Cuba with such a poor government and documentation.  If the Indians find out Cespedes is 29 instead of 26, it really would make a world of difference in their long term investment in the player.  At 26, Cespedes figures to be near his physical peak, but his tools should still develop at the major league level and his useful life is three years longer than that of a 29 year old.

Last, but likely not least, I personally see a potential in Cespedes' size.  While he’s clearly a physical beast, to me, he merely resembles a 28-year old Andruw Jones.  What happened to Jones over time?  He accumulated a fashion for overeating and eventually ate himself out of centerfield and into a permanent bench role.  It’s unfair to compare Cespedes to Jones, but from the look and sound of things—a 6’0, 215 lb strong centerfielder with power—I can’t help but parallel the two, especially if the Indians don’t sign him.

At the increasing rate north of $35 million, there’s a fat chance the Indians make a realistic offer to Cespedes especially with wealthier bidders in the auction.  But, if they are able to sign Cespedes, they instantly boost their outfield and offense in one move which is more than they can say with the marginal minor league signings sprinkled over the offseason.

With the Tigers signing Prince Fielder along with the migration of major star power to the American League (Pujols, Darvish, etc.), now may be the time for the Indians to make a move to not only acquire a potential impact player, but also take away the competitive edge another team could gain with Cespedes. A move for the sake of a move isn't the right rationale, but with a real 'winning window' of just two years, desperate times call for desperate measures.  Unfortunately, desperation can't resolve the financial constraint the Indians are in and thus makes it very unlikely the Tribe can invest in a risk this rich.

One thing we’ve learned through the Yoenis Cespedes experience is if Kevin Youkilis was deemed ‘the greek god of walks,’ then surely, Cespedes must be the greek god of (showboat) scouting videos.

Like any top prospect, we’ll simply have to wait and see if La Potencia’s showcase videos are pure propaganda or the foreshadowing movie trailer of the next big star. Cespedes hopes to finish his trilogy of ‘showcase’ videos with his third video this spring, being that it will be most important and telling of all: facing live major league pitching.

Follow Sean on Twitter @SMahon2Go for various Indians' musings and mentions.

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2012 Cleveland Indians Payroll Chart

Here is a payroll listing for the Cleveland Indians as they get set to embark on the 2012 offseason. I have updated this chart after some recent arbitration signings and lots of minor league contract details were made public.

This is the most comprehensive listing in regard to the Cleveland Indians 40-man payroll and contract status you will find on the web. Included below is the payroll and player control outlook for the next seven years, service time through 2011, and lots of contract information for every player. This payroll chart is linked on the top of the page below the title and to the right.

Last updated: 02/10/2012

Player	Service	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Barnes, Scott	0.000	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Brantley, Michael	1.131	.480	Super 2	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Cabrera, Asdrubal	4.027	4.550	ARB3	FA
Carmona, Fausto	5.125	7.000	9.000	12.000	FA
Carrasco, Carlos	1.067	.480	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Carrera, Ezequiel	0.082	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Chisenhall, Lonnie	0.094	.480	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Choo, Shin-Soo	4.119	4.900	ARB3	FA
Cunningham, Aaron	1.142	.480	Super 2	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
De La Cruz, Kelvin	0.000	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Diaz, Juan	0.000	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Donald, Jason	1.057	.480	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Duncan, Shelley	2.099	.480	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Gomez, Jeanmar	0.117	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Hafner, Travis	9.009	13.000	13.000	FA
Hagadone, Nick	0.030	.480	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Hannahan, Jack	3.065	1.135	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Herrmann, Frank	1.099	.480	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Huff, David	1.117	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Jimenez, Ubaldo	4.087	4.200	5.750	8.000	FA
Kipnis, Jason	0.069	.480	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Kluber, Corey	0.011	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Kotchman, Casey	6.144	3.000	FA
LaPorta, Matt	2.063	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Lowe, Derek	14.100	5.000*	FA
Marson, Lou	2.036	.480	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Masterson, Justin	3.108	3.825	ARB2	ARB3	FA
McAllister, Zach	0.011	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Neal, Thomas	0.000	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Perez, Chris	3.136	4.500	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Perez, Rafael	4.157	2.005	ARB3	FA
Pestano, Vinnie	1.011	.480	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Phelps, Cord	0.065	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Salazar, Danny	0.000	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Santana, Carlos	1.115	.480	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Sipp, Tony	2.138	.480	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Sizemore, Grady	7.056	5.000	FA
Slowey, Kevin	4.053	1.500**	ARB3	FA
Smith, Joe	4.091	1.75	ARB3	FA
Tomlin, Josh	1.069	.480	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Weglarz, Nick	0.000	MIN	MIN	MIN	ARB1	ARB2	ARB3	FA
Sizemore buyout	7.056	.500
TOTAL		$ 68.585	$ 27.750	$ 20.000	$ -	$ -	$ -	$ -

Legend: Blue = Club Option; Orange = Player Option; Green = Mutual Option; Yellow = Super 2

* - Atlanta Braves are paying $10 million of Lowe's $15 million salary for 2012.
**- Colorado Rockies are paying $1.25 million of Slowey's $2.75 million salary for 2012.
*** - Minimum salaries of $480K for 14 players are listed above (13 on ML roster, 1 on ML DL - Carrasco). The players that make the $480K are subject to change based on who makes the roster out of spring training, plus these figures will alter slightly once they sign their 1-year deals this spring and make anywhere between $480-500K based on service time.

General Notes: 

- Most of the players with minimum salaries will earn league minimum wages around $480K (or slightly above) depending on their service time.

- Major League service time is through the 2011 season.  172 days of service time is considered 1 major league season. Service time listing shows the years before the decimal point, and the days after. Ex: 2.134 is 2 years and 134 days of service time.  Though the season is really 180 days or so long, you cannot accrue anymore than 172 days of service time in a season.

- Free agency, Super 2, and arbitration are all projected as if all players played a full season at the big league level from next year going forward.  Obviously, for several players free agency and arbitration will actually be pushed back a year or two as they spend more time in the minors in the coming years.

- Previous 25-man roster payrolls:

2011: $49,426,567
2010: $61,453,967
2009: $81,579,166
2008: $78,970,066
2007: $61,673,267
2006: $56,031,500
2005: $41,502,500
2004: $34,319,300
2003: $48,584,834
2002: $78,909,499
2001: $93,360,000
2000: $76,500,000
1999: $73,857,962
1998: $59,033,499
1997: $54,130,232
1996: $45,317,914
1995: $35,185,500
1994: $28,490,167
1993: $15,717,667
1992: $8,236,166
1991: $18,270,000
1990: $15,152,000
1989: $8,928,500
1988: $7,819,500

Player Contract Details: 

Barnes, Scott:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Brantley, Michael:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency. However, he will likely be a Super 2 arbitration player after the 2012 season if he spends just about all of the 2012 on active Major League roster or on the disabled list.
- Agent: Joshua Kusnick

Cabrera, Asdrubal:
- Signed a 1 year $4.55 million contract for 2012 to avoid salary arbitration.
- Has one more arbitration year before he is a free agent after the 2013 season.
- Agent: Alan Nero

Carmona, Fausto:
- Currently in the middle of a 4-year $15M contract (2008-2011) which also has three club option years for 2012-2014.
- Deal includes a $750M signing bonus which is divided among four years of deal.
- Base salary:  2008: $500K, 2009: 2.75M, 2010: $4.9M, 2011: 6.1M, 2012: $7M club option, 2013: $9M club option, 2014: $12M club option.
- 2012 club option for $7 million picked up on 10/31/2011.
- If he finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting in 2010 and 2011 his 2012 option increases by $1M, if he finishes top five in Cy Young voting in 2011 and 2012 his 2013 option increases by $2M, and if he finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2012 and 2013 his 2014 option increases by $2M.
- Agent: Jorge Brito

Carrasco, Carlos:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Carrera, Ezequiel:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Chisenhall, Lonnie:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $67K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Choo, Shin-Soo:
- Signed a 1 year $4.9M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- Has one more arbitration year left before he is a free agent after the 2013 season.
- Agent: Scott Boras

Cunningham, Aaron:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season as a Super 2, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

De Le Cruz, Kelvin:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Diaz, Juan:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Donald, Jason:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.
- Agent: Scott Boras

Duncan, Shelley:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until after the 2012 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.
- Agent: Barry Meister

Gomez, Jeanmar:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Hafner, Travis:
- Currently signed to a 4-year $57M (2009-2012) contract with a club option for 2013.
- $5.25M of deal was added to 2007 ($2.25M) and 2008 ($3M) salaries of pre-existing deal.
- Base salary: 2007: $6.3M, 2008: $8.05M, 2009: $11.5M, 2010: $11.5M, 2011: $13M, 2012: $13M, 2013: $13M ($2.75M buyout).
- Agent: Scott Parker and Brian Peters of Legacy Sports Group

Hagadone, Nick:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Hannahan, Jack:
- Signed a 1 year $1.135M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- Has two arbitration years before he is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season.

Herrmann, Frank:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Huff, David:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Jimenez, Ubaldo:
- Signed by the Colorado Rockies to a 4-year $10 million deal prior to the 2009 season, a deal which also includes two option years.
- He made $750K in 2009 and $1.25M in 2010, and makes $2.8M in 2011 and $4.2M in 2012.  He has a $5.75M club option for 2013 which has a $1M buyout. He had an $8.0M club option for 2014 with a $1M buyout as well, but as part of his contract if he were traded that 2014 club option turns into a player option.
- His 2013 club option increases to $6.75M if he wins the 2012 Cy Young or to $6.25M if he finishes 2nd or 3rd in the Cy Young voting. His 2014 player option increases to $9.0M if he wins the Cy Young or 450 innings pitched from 2012-2013, or to $8.5M with a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the 2013 Cy Young voting.
- He receives a performance bonus of $50K for reaching each of 200, 210, 220, 230, and 240 inning pitched in a season.
- He receives an award bonus of $100K for winning a Cy Young in 2011 or a $50K bonus if he finished 2nd to 5th in the voting. He also receives an award bonus of $100K for MVP or World Series MVP, a $75K bonus League Championship Series MVP, and a $25K bonus for each All Star selection or winning a Gold Glove.
- Agent: SFX

Kipnis, Jason
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $67K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Kluber, Cory:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Kotchman, Casey:
- Signed a 1 year deal for $3 million for the 2012 season.
- Incentives in deal to make more based on games and performance.

LaPorta, Matt:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2012 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.
- Agent: Scott Boras

Lowe, Derek:
- In the final year of a 4 year $60 million contract he signed with the Braves prior to the 2009 season.
- As part of a trade to the Indians, Atlanta agreed to pay $10 million of his $15 million 2012 salary.
- Agent: Scott Boras

Marson, Lou:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2012 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Masterson, Justin:
- Signed a 1 year $3.825M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- Has two more arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency after the 2014 season.

McAllister, Zach:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Neal, Thomas:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $67K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Perez, Chris:
- Signed a 1 year $4.5M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- He was a Super 2 arbitration player in 2011 and has two arbitration years left before he can be a free agent after the 2014 season.

Perez, Rafael:
- Signed a 1 year $2.005M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- He can earn an additional $25K in incentives if he makes 55 appearances in 2012.
- Has one more arbitration year before he is a free agent after the 2013 season.

Pestano, Vinnie:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Phelps, Cord:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $67K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Salazar, Danny:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he can make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Santana, Carlos:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Sipp, Tony:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until after the 2012 season, and then has three arbitration years before he reaches free agency.

Sizemore, Grady:
- Signed a 1 year, $5 million deal on November 23, 2011.
- Deal includes up to $4 million incentives which pay out as follows: $250K for 450 PA and $250K for 475 PA, and then $500K for each of 500, 525, 550, 575, 600, 625, and 650 PAs. He would also receive a $500K bonus for being named Comeback Player of the Year.
- Agent: Joe Urbon

Slowey, Kevin:
- Signed a 1 year $2.75M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- Has one more arbitration year left before he is a free agent after the 2013 season.

Smith, Joe:
- Signed a 1 year $1.75M deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration.
- Has one more arbitration year left before he is a free agent after the 2013 season.
- Agent: Rick Oliver

Tomlin, Josh:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he will make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2013 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.

Weglarz, Nick:
- As a non-arbitration eligible player, he could make around $480K in 2012.
- If sent to the minors, he will have a split contract calls for a daily rate of his $65K minor league salary and his $480K or so salary in the majors.
- Not arbitration eligible until at least after the 2014 season, and then has at least three arbitration years remaining before he reaches free agency.
- Agent: Michael Bonnano, Oak Sports Management

Other Contracts

Here are some additional contracts of note for players not on the 40-man roster.

Accardo, Jeremy
- Signed to a minor league deal for 2012 and can make $825K if he makes the Indians roster.
- His deal includes incentives where he could make up to an additional $300K by earning $50K for 50 games, 55 games, 60 game and 65 games pitched, and $100K for 70 games.
- Can ask for release if not on Major League roster by June 1st.

Hernandez, Michael
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $425K if he makes the Indians roster.

LaRoche, Andy
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $600K if he makes the Indians roster.
- Can request his release if he is not on the Major League roster by June 1st.

Lewis, Fred
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $725K if he makes the Indians roster.
- He can earn up to an additional $500K in incentives by earning $50K each for 350, 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, 525, 550, 575, and 600 plate appearances.
- He can ask for his release if he is not on the Major League roster by June 1st.

Lopez, Jose
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $900K if he makes the Indians roster.

Pagnozzi, Matt
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $525K if he makes the Indians roster.

Petit, Gregorio
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $550K if he makes the Indians roster.
- Can request his release if he is not on the Major League roster by June 30th.

Pie, Felix
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $700K if he makes the Indians roster.
- He deal includes incentives where he could make up to an additional $300K.

Ray, Chris
- Signed to a minor league contract for 2012 and can make $900K if he makes the Indians roster.
- He can earn $50K each in incentives for 40, 45, 50 , 55, 60, 65, and 70 games pitched; $50 K for 35 games finished, $50K for 40 games finished, and $125K each for 45 and 50 games finished.
- Can request his release if he is not on the Major League roster by April 3rd or added to it within 72 hours.

Tejeda, Robinson
- Singed to a minor league deal for 2012 and can make $825K if he makes the Indians roster.
- Can earn $50K in incentives for each occurrence of 50, 55, 60, and 65 appearances, and $100K for making 70 appearances.

Wheeler, Dan
- Signed to a minor league deal for 2012 and can make $900K if he makes the Indians roster.
- He can earn an additional $50K in incentives for each instance of appearing in 45 games, 50 games, 55 games, 60 games, 65 games and 70 games. He can also earn an addition $50K for 35 games finishes, $75K for 40 games finished, and $125K each for 45 and 50 games finished.
- He does not have an opt out clause, though can sign with a foreign team for $100K if not added to the Major League roster within 48 hours.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI.

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Indians acquire Canzler from Rays

Russ Canzler

On Tuesday morning the Indians announced that they acquired infielder/outfielder Russ Canzler from the Tampa Bay Rays for cash considerations. The Rays had designated him for assignment on January 27th after they signed infielder Jeff Keppinger, and he is now on the Indians 40-man roster. He assumed the spot vacated by Fausto Carmona who was put on the restricted list last week.

Canzler, 25, was the MVP this past season of the International League at Triple-A Durham. Last season he hit .314 (149-for-474) with 40 doubles, 4 triples, 18 home runs, 83 RBI and .931 OPS in 131 games. He was a midseason and postseason All Star and led the the league in doubles (40) and slugging pct. (.530), finished tied for second in runs (78), third in hits (149), fourth in batting average (.314), fifth in RBI (83) and second in on-base pct. (.401) and total bases (251). He showed some versatility last season as he appeared in 41 games in right field, 33 games in left field, 40 games at third base and 17 games at first. He made his Major League debut with the Rays in September and went 1-for-3 in 3 games (1RBI, 1BB).

Canzler was originally drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 30th round of the 2004 Draft out of Hazleton Area High School (PA). After a seven year minor league career with the Cubs he signed with the Rays last offseason as a free agent. For his minor league career he is a .280 hitter (698-for-2490) with 172 doubles, 23 triples, 84 homer and 405 RBI in 738 games.

Canzler is a depth option and has some potential as a corner utility player. While his 2011 season and MVP are nice to see, they mean very little as he is not valued highly in the industry. His defense is questionable, and the fact the Cubs let him go as a free agent last year and now the Rays let him go for only cash show how limited his future may be. He could be a late bloomer like a Casey Blake, or just another defensive challenged offensive player stuck in Triple-A like Jordan Brown.

Canzler has all three of his options remaining, so he should provide depth at several positions this year at Triple-A and in the big leagues, and he could end up being a good buy low pickup for the Indians. With that in mind, even with his impressive performance the past two years expectations should be tempered and he should be viewed nothing more than a depth option until he shows otherwise.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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2012 Remaining Options Chart

Lonnie Chisenhall

Here is a listing of the players on the 40-man roster  - and a few others that are not on the 40-man roster - and how many option years they have remaining going into the 2012 season. This listing is up to date and includes the latest transaction with the removal of right-handed pitcher Zach Putnam from the roster and the addition of right-handed pitcher Kevin Slowey.

As an FYI, any player on the 40-man roster but not on the active 25-man Major League roster is on what is called "optional assignment". A player on optional assignment can be moved up and down an endless amount of times in one season between the Major Leagues and minor leagues and it still only counts as one option. A player is considered to have used one of their three options when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in a season. Once all of the options have been used up on a player, a player is considered to be "out of options" and must be placed on and clear waivers prior to being sent down to the minor leagues.

For future reference, this chart is listed in the "Reference" tab located along the top just below the header.

Last Updated: January 31, 2012

Player	No.	Player	No.
Barnes, Scott	3	Kipnis, Jason	3
Brantley, Michael	2	Kluber, Corey	2
Cabrera, Asdrubal	2	LaPorta, Matt	1
Carmona, Fausto	0	Lowe, Derek	0
Carrasco, Carlos	1	Marson, Lou	1
Carrera, Ezequiel	1	Masterson, Justin	1
Chisenhall, Lonnie	3	McAllister, Zach	2
Choo, Shin-Soo	0	Neal, Thomas	2
Cunningham, Aaron	0	Perez, Chris	3
De La Cruz, Kelvin	1	Perez, Rafael	0
Diaz, Juan	3	Pestano, Vinnie	3
Donald, Jason	1	Phelps, Cord	2
Duncan, Shelley	0	Salazar, Danny	3
Gomez, Jeanmar	1	Santana, Carlos	1
Hafner, Travis	0	Sipp, Tony*	1
Hagadone, Nick	2	Sizemore, Grady	0
Hannahan, Jack	0	Slowey, Kevin	1
Herrmann, Frank	3	Smith, Joe	1
Huff, David	1	Tomlin, Josh	3
Jimenez, Ubaldo	0	Weglarz, Nick*	1

Others (Not on 40-man)	No.
Ambriz, Hector	3
Carlin, Luke	1
Crowe, Trevor	1
Goedert, Jared	2
Huffman, Chad	2
Rondon, Hector*	1

* - player may be eligible for a 4th option year

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI.

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Explaining Stats: OPS and OPS+

For this entry in this "Explaing Stats" series, I will explain two important stats: OPS and OPS+. In most places only OPS is referenced and it is a useful tool for evaluation, but OPS+ is a way to improve on OPS and make it carry more meaning and make up for the problems that people find in OPS.

OPS stands for on-base plus slugging. It is literally just the addition of the two stats on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Last year Jose Bautista led the league with an OPS of 1.056, while the highest Indian was Carlos Santana at .808 which was 57th in baseball. The average level is typically seen as .725 but it can vary based on position.

If you remember the previous pieces I am sure you can quickly see one of the main flaws with OPS is that each part is not an equal share. The top slugging percentage last year was .608 and the top on-base percentage was .448. As a result, OPS in general favors power over the ability to get on base.

A lot of Indians fans like Mark Trumbo as he hit 29 home runs and posted a .768 OPS last year which appears great. Yet he also had the 11th worst on-base percentage of every hitter in baseball. It means he is making outs at a rate faster than pretty much every other hitter in the league, yet his OPS looks solid. This under valuing of on-base percentage is the primary issue with OPS.

Another issue is that it does not take into effect the parks or leagues the player is playing in. For instance, the recently signed Prince Fielder had a .981 OPS, which was 5th best in baseball. Yet one has to think that while he will still have a good OPS that he has zero chance of keeping the same rate because of the change in parks to Detroit's spacious Comerica Park. Using a great website Katron.org - which I found thanks to ESPN - you can see how a players' hits would fall in each park. This website showed me Fielder would hit 14 less homeruns if he hit identical to the year before. One would assume that the park factors would have a major effect on OPS. A player in Petco Park will have a much harder time posting a high OPS than someone who plays in Miller Park.

The final factor is the difficulty of the leagues themselves as sometimes one league is better than the other which can inflate a player's numbers. These problems all lead to the development of adjusted OPS or as it is commonly stated OPS+.

OPS+ has a lot of little changes which make it such a useful stat. The first change was to make the stat more accessible. Instead of .725 generally being average for OPS, a value of 100 is the average player on the OPS+ scale. If a player has a value above 100 (ex. 120) then you know they have an above average OPS, if the player has a value below 100 (ex. 79) then you know the player has a below average OPS. This makes it much easier to see and relate player values, so much so that anyone should be able to read and understand it.

This stat also includes more components such as park factors. The way to figure it out is a lot more complicated and is not something that can be easily calculated. Basically it is this:

(OBP divided by park adjusted OBP of the league + SLG divided by park adjusted SLG of the league - 1) X 100.

Adjusted OPS allows fans an easy way to figure out a player's production. It is the easiest scale out there of any stat, and shows the whole of a player's production.

Bill James developed a great system for understanding OPS and it is now a stat that is easy to find and easy to calculate. Yet even a stat like this which is just starting to get the attention it deserves in the last few years is already out of date. Adjusted OPS is yet another tool for fans and scouts alike to try and figure out who are the most effective producers in the game.

Hopefully these stats are both more accessible and understandable to fans out there who were not familiar with them. The next column in this series will focus on WAR (wins above replacement), what it is good for, and how it is an even more inclusive way to figure out a player's value to a team.

For those who want to see the top players in adjusted OPS the last few years go here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_top_ten.shtml

You can also now follow me on my sports related twitter @jeffIPI.

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That's why they play the games

Prince Fielder (Photo: AP)

Superstar first baseman Prince Fielder is a Detroit Tiger. No matter how many times people hear that it still sends a chill down the spine of Cleveland Indians fans.

When the news broke last Tuesday fans of every team in the AL Central teams closed their eyes and hoped it was some sort of sick joke. But it is real as Fielder has since already been introduced to the Detroit public. He is a Detroit Tiger now and for the foreseeable future.

Many Cleveland fans have already bid farewell to any hopes of the Indians winning the AL Central this year after this signing. I’ll admit, I was one of those fans. But after the dust settled I realized that Major League Baseball is not going to just cancel the 2012 season and hand the Tigers the World Series trophy. They still have to play the games.

The only guarantee Detroit is getting is a large bulls-eye on their backs.

Yes, on paper, Detroit looks like the hands down favorites to win the AL Central. And on paper, Detroit looks like a trendy World Series pick. However, no games have ever been played on paper, and that's not about to start this season.

There is no doubt that Detroit has a solid collection of great baseball players. Justin Verlander, the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP winner, shows no signs of stopping his dominance. Miguel Cabrera will continue to put up MVP caliber numbers, and the surrounding pieces will continue to put up average to well above average statistics.

However, Detroit did suffer one big blow this offseason. Designated hitter and catcher Victor Martinez will likely be lost for the year due to a torn ACL. Don’t automatically think that Fielder will make Detroit fans forget that they lost Martinez. Last season, he finished sixth in all of MLB with a .330 batting average. The switch-hitter also added 40 doubles, 12 homers, and drove in 103 runs, while adding immeasurable leadership to the Detroit clubhouse.

Another value that Martinez brings that is often overlooked is his vast knowledge of the AL Central. Martinez spent seven and a half years with Cleveland, and then spent last year with the Tigers. During that time Martinez has developed a familiarity with the different ballparks in the AL Central, the pitchers in the division, and the managing styles of the different managers in the division. That knowledge and leadership is something that should not be overlooked, and something that Fielder may not be able to duplicate.

During his seven year career, Fielder has hit a combined .269 with 20 homers and 61 RBI in 350 at bats against American League opponents. These numbers are by no means below average; however, they are not the type of numbers that Detroit will need in order to replace Martinez and capture their first World Series title since 1984.

An important aspect of baseball is defense. A bad defense can cost pitchers runs and cost the team victories. The defense that Detroit is expected to trot out onto the field on Opening Day is not exactly full of Gold Glovers.

Fielder is expected to be the everyday first baseman for the Tigers. Last season, he led National League first baseman in errors with 15 and also finished last in the league among first basemen in fielding percentage.

With Fielder’s arrival, incumbent first baseman Miguel Cabrera will slide over to third base, a position he used to play in Florida. Cabrera has put on a lot of weight since his Florida days, and his body is much more suited for first base or designated hitter and he has not played any third base since playing 14 games at the position in 2008. In those 14 games he had five errors.

Detroit’s shortstop Jhonny Peralta brings a solid fielding percentage to the Tigers infield; however, as Cleveland fans remember from his days as an Indian he has very limited range. With the lack of range of all three of those players a lot of groundballs could find their way through the infield for base hits. More base hits mean that Detroit’s pitchers will have to throw more pitches. More pitches mean more fatigue. More fatigue leads to balls catching more of the strike zone, which could lead to a lot of big innings for Tigers’ opponents.

Another disadvantage for the Tigers is their lack of team speed. Leadoff man and centerfielder Austin Jackson led the team in stolen bases in 2011 with 22. Finishing in a distance second with five stolen bases were outfielders Brennan Boesch and Andy Dirks. Detroit finished last in the entire American League with 49 stolen bases as a team. To put that into perspective, Tampa Bay led the American League with 155 steals.

That severe lack of team speed will make it difficult for Detroit to manufacture runs. Yes, Cabrera and Fielder are capable of manufacturing several runs with one swing of the bat, but Detroit’s Comerica Park, known for being a pitcher’s park, is not a ballpark where a team can sit back and wait for a home run.

Cleveland fans and players will not deny the immense talent in the Detroit clubhouse. On paper, it looks as though Detroit would beat Cleveland nearly every time the two squads meet. During this upcoming 2012 season Cleveland will face Detroit 18 times, but all 18 of those games will be played on the field and not on paper.

The intangibles and unpredictability of the game of baseball will certainly come into play throughout next season. That’s why they play the games.

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Tribe Happenings: Prince signing makes things more difficult

Fielder looks like a super addition to the

Tigers, but will he be the right fit? (Photo: AP)

Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Indians notebook…

Prince of Tides

It has been an offseason of shocking signings. First the Miami Marlins went crazy in early December spending a lot of money on three players, and then the Los Angeles Angels came out of nowhere to land the top free agent prize first baseman Albert Pujols.

On Tuesday things got even crazier as it was announced that the Detroit Tigers signed free agent slugging first baseman Prince Fielder. The news came out of nowhere as up to the signing the Tigers were never really linked to him as a serious suitor, but after the announcement it sent an enormous shockwave throughout the Indians offices and to fans across the country.

There is no doubt when a team can add one of the premier power hitters in the game that it is going to be a significant addition. With Fielder and his power bat in tow it makes for a very formidable one-two punch in the middle of the Tigers’ order with him and Miguel Cabrera, arguably the best in the league and shades of the David Ortiz-Manny Ramirez combo that was a nightmare for opposing pitchers just a few seasons ago.

While a lot of people are already crowning the Tigers as AL Central champions for 2012, the one caveat is that things do not always play out as they look on paper. Baseball is very unpredictable, which is why teams still have to play the games as there is never a guarantee with how any player will perform in a given season and more importantly how healthy a team will be all season.

At this time last year people were already buying World Series tickets for the Red Sox after they acquired Adrian Gonzalez and signed Carl Crawford to mega deals. The White Sox looked a lot stronger after they inked Adam Dunn to a big deal. But both of those teams missed the playoffs and were big disappointments last season, mostly because things just did not click for them.

Look how many times the Indians seemingly added the missing piece in the 90s? After coming up short in 1995, they went out and added Jack McDowell and Julio Franco and came up even shorter in the playoffs in 1996. Every offseason they added a significant piece, be it Roberto Alomar in the 1998 offseason or Chuck Finley in the 1999 offseason, but it was never enough and they even missed the playoffs in 2000.

Look at the Tigers just four years ago when they made the big splash of the offseason when coming off an 88-74 season in 2007 they acquired both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins, but followed that up with a 74-88 record in 2008 and finished in last place in the AL Central. Look at the White Sox after they won the World Series in 2005 when they acquired Jim Thome, and then flat out missed the playoffs in 2006 and finished in third place in the division.

At the time all of those moves were made people thought those teams would be better. That’s the beauty of baseball and why what looks good on paper does not always translate to success on the field. Offseason moves to add players via free agency and trades definitely help, but injuries and performance are still the number one factor that determines success over the course of a season.

The Tigers are certainly the favorite to win the AL Central, but the Indians are still a contender. Instead of fearing the Prince, let’s see what happens over the course of 162-games. As Indians’ right-handed reliever Vinnie Pestano would say, “If you are scared, get a dog.”

Carmona gets restricted

Last Friday right-handed pitcher Fausto Carmona - whose real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia - was arrested and released on bail for using a false identity and is currently being investigated by United States and Dominican Republic authorities. On Thursday the Indians placed him on the restricted list, which takes him off the 25-man and 40-man roster and he is not paid. He will be eligible for reinstatement when he reports to the team.

The Indians are not making any further comment on the matter until Carmona’s status and availability to the club are determined. At the moment no one knows when that will be, but the team and fans should prepare for him to be out for a significant amount of time. A good barometer as to how long he may be out is the Leo Nunez situation in Miami, as he was also caught using a false identity back in September and that situation has yet to even come close to being resolved.

In the meantime, all the Indians can really do is wait to find out what happens with Carmona and in the meantime just put him on the restricted list in order to clear a roster spot and some salary. Some people have suggested that the Indians should just cut him loose after he deceived the team, but this is a delicate situation where their rush to cut him would be viewed in a bad light by others around the league. On top of that I am not even sure they can void his contract if they wanted to until the investigation is complete.

At this point in free agency there is not much to spend his salary on anyway, so it is not yet a critical decision on what to do with his contract. It may become more of a necessity in June or July if he is still not available to pitch and the Indians can use his salary to pick up a player or two in a mid-summer trade.

The Indians picked up Carmona’s $7 million option for 2012 back in November. If he does not return until after the start of the regular season, then he will earn a pro-rated portion of his contract depending on how many days are left in the season when he is activated from the restricted list. For simplicity sake, say he does not return until around June 1st and misses the first two months of the six month season, he would then only receive about two-thirds of the $7 million salary ($4.7M).

Thank goodness for the AL Central?

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels really beefed up their already good rosters this offseason, and look like the two kings of the AL West. The New York Yankees have improved their pitching staff immensely this offseason, and of course the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will be very good once again.

Meanwhile the AL Central continues to plod along with little fanfare this offseason…..well, that is, until the Tigers made the Prince Fielder signing this week.

Outside of the Fielder deal, while teams in the other divisions have improved, the teams in the AL Central this offseason have done very little to make themselves much better. The Royals and Twins have made a few nice signings, but nothing big or that will put them over the top. Like the Indians, the biggest boost to them will be health and the development of their internal players. The White Sox are in sell mode and are retooling and are not considered to be a major factor in the division this season.

Even with the Tigers continuing to add big pieces in the past year, the Indians should thank their lucky stars they are not in the AL East or AL West as they would almost have no chance every year unless they hit on a bunch of young very good players at one time like the Rays. Beating the "buyers" over a 162 game season is a tough task, but the Indians have never had to really worry about that too much in the AL Central.

The Tigers’ recent activity will make things more difficult, and maybe they see an opportunity to get a leg up on the lowest payroll division in baseball. But even with the Tigers’ spending a lot of money of late, it still beats having to beat out two big spending behemoths in each of the other divisions. So not matter what any team in the American league does, it all boils down to the Indians only needing to worry about beating the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals for the division crown.

Yes, eventually you will have to beat the “buyers” in a five or seven game postseason series if the Indians make the playoffs, but as many people know anything can happen in a short series. So until some other teams in the division join the Tigers and start going crazy with big time trades and free agent signings, be thankful the Indians are in the AL Central. I would argue the single best thing former owner Dick Jacobs ever did for the Indians franchise was getting them out of the AL East when the league was realigned after 1993.

Wheeler signed

On Thursday the Indians signed free agent right-handed reliever Dan Wheeler to a minor league contract with an invite to Major League spring training.

Wheeler, 34, debuted in the Major Leagues in 1999 and since then has made 577 appearances with the Rays, Mets, Astros, and Red Sox and compiled 3.88 ERA in his career with 43 saves. His 466 appearances since 2005 are ranked fourth in Major League Baseball, and in his career he has struck out 7.9 batters per nine innings and walked 2.7 batters per nine innings. Last season with the Red Sox he posted a 4.38 ERA in 47 appearances (49.1 IP, 47 H, 39K)

Wheeler joins non-roster invitees Jeremy Accardo and Chris Ray as the favorites to win the last spot in the Indians bullpen. Lefty Nick Hagadone is another minor league option that should also get strong consideration for the final spot in the bullpen. In any case, this is a much better approach to filling the last spot in the bullpen with an inexpensive player that is not rostered and can be effective and also not guaranteed money. The Indians made a mistake giving right-handed pitcher Chad Durbin a guaranteed contract and roster spot last year, and it appears they have learned from that.

Given Wheeler’s success in the past and over the last several seasons he is probably the early favorite going into camp to win that last spot in the bullpen. That said, he had forearm soreness in September and had to be shut down, so it remains to be seen if he is completely recovered from that and if it affects him going forward.

Spending when the time is right

“We will spend when the time is right.”

That’s the infamous quote Indians owner Larry Dolan made back in the summer of 2002 when the team was being deconstructed and being rebuilt over a three year plan. It is a quote that is never going to go away. It is also a quote that has been very misunderstood over the years as everyone took it to mean something different at the time. There is no doubt that he probably wishes he never made that comment, especially in light of how much the game has changed since he made it.

That comment was made almost nine years ago, and like everything as time passes, we tend to exaggerate the real story. Back when he made that comment he was not saying that they would go out and spend a lot of money in free agency when the time was right. It was simply a comment made in response to a team which was blown up and payroll had been bottomed out to $35 million and that when they were contenders again they would bring payroll back up to previous levels.

Those previous levels were $65-80 million, which is what they have done for several years since then. In the five of the last six years they have had four payrolls north of $60 million and two of those season (and maybe this year) north of $70 million. Unfortunately for Dolan and the Indians, when he made that comment he probably never envisioned the payroll disparity that was about to come and that getting back to $70-80M payroll levels would not be enough.

Parting shots

On Thursday the Indians signed right-handed pitcher Jose De La Torre and infielder Ryan Rohlinger to a straight minor league deals. They will report to minor league camp in March and did not receive an invite to Major League camp this spring. … De La Torre is a 26 year old pitcher that in 168 career appearances (265.2 innings) in the minors owns a career 17-19 record with a 2.84 ERA. … Rohlinger is a 28 year old infielder that is a career .268 hitter in the minors (2306 at bats). … Also on Thursday the Indians unveiled their broadcasting schedule for the 2012 season. SportsTime Ohio will air 151 games this season, 20 of which will be simulcast on WKYC Channel 3. Also, FOX will nationally televise four games on April 28th (Angels), June 2nd (Twins), June 9th (Cardinals), and September 15th (Tigers).

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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