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| Prince Fielder (Photo: AP) |
When the news broke last Tuesday fans of every team in the AL Central teams closed their eyes and hoped it was some sort of sick joke. But it is real as Fielder has since already been introduced to the Detroit public. He is a Detroit Tiger now and for the foreseeable future.
Many Cleveland fans have already bid farewell to any hopes of the Indians winning the AL Central this year after this signing. I’ll admit, I was one of those fans. But after the dust settled I realized that Major League Baseball is not going to just cancel the 2012 season and hand the Tigers the World Series trophy. They still have to play the games.
The only guarantee Detroit is getting is a large bulls-eye on their backs.
Yes, on paper, Detroit looks like the hands down favorites to win the AL Central. And on paper, Detroit looks like a trendy World Series pick. However, no games have ever been played on paper, and that's not about to start this season.
There is no doubt that Detroit has a solid collection of great baseball players. Justin Verlander, the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP winner, shows no signs of stopping his dominance. Miguel Cabrera will continue to put up MVP caliber numbers, and the surrounding pieces will continue to put up average to well above average statistics.
However, Detroit did suffer one big blow this offseason. Designated hitter and catcher Victor Martinez will likely be lost for the year due to a torn ACL. Don’t automatically think that Fielder will make Detroit fans forget that they lost Martinez. Last season, he finished sixth in all of MLB with a .330 batting average. The switch-hitter also added 40 doubles, 12 homers, and drove in 103 runs, while adding immeasurable leadership to the Detroit clubhouse.
Another value that Martinez brings that is often overlooked is his vast knowledge of the AL Central. Martinez spent seven and a half years with Cleveland, and then spent last year with the Tigers. During that time Martinez has developed a familiarity with the different ballparks in the AL Central, the pitchers in the division, and the managing styles of the different managers in the division. That knowledge and leadership is something that should not be overlooked, and something that Fielder may not be able to duplicate.
During his seven year career, Fielder has hit a combined .269 with 20 homers and 61 RBI in 350 at bats against American League opponents. These numbers are by no means below average; however, they are not the type of numbers that Detroit will need in order to replace Martinez and capture their first World Series title since 1984.
An important aspect of baseball is defense. A bad defense can cost pitchers runs and cost the team victories. The defense that Detroit is expected to trot out onto the field on Opening Day is not exactly full of Gold Glovers.
Fielder is expected to be the everyday first baseman for the Tigers. Last season, he led National League first baseman in errors with 15 and also finished last in the league among first basemen in fielding percentage.
With Fielder’s arrival, incumbent first baseman Miguel Cabrera will slide over to third base, a position he used to play in Florida. Cabrera has put on a lot of weight since his Florida days, and his body is much more suited for first base or designated hitter and he has not played any third base since playing 14 games at the position in 2008. In those 14 games he had five errors.
Detroit’s shortstop Jhonny Peralta brings a solid fielding percentage to the Tigers infield; however, as Cleveland fans remember from his days as an Indian he has very limited range. With the lack of range of all three of those players a lot of groundballs could find their way through the infield for base hits. More base hits mean that Detroit’s pitchers will have to throw more pitches. More pitches mean more fatigue. More fatigue leads to balls catching more of the strike zone, which could lead to a lot of big innings for Tigers’ opponents.
Another disadvantage for the Tigers is their lack of team speed. Leadoff man and centerfielder Austin Jackson led the team in stolen bases in 2011 with 22. Finishing in a distance second with five stolen bases were outfielders Brennan Boesch and Andy Dirks. Detroit finished last in the entire American League with 49 stolen bases as a team. To put that into perspective, Tampa Bay led the American League with 155 steals.
That severe lack of team speed will make it difficult for Detroit to manufacture runs. Yes, Cabrera and Fielder are capable of manufacturing several runs with one swing of the bat, but Detroit’s Comerica Park, known for being a pitcher’s park, is not a ballpark where a team can sit back and wait for a home run.
Cleveland fans and players will not deny the immense talent in the Detroit clubhouse. On paper, it looks as though Detroit would beat Cleveland nearly every time the two squads meet. During this upcoming 2012 season Cleveland will face Detroit 18 times, but all 18 of those games will be played on the field and not on paper.
The intangibles and unpredictability of the game of baseball will certainly come into play throughout next season. That’s why they play the games.
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5 comments:
Great players don't guarantee championships or playoff success.
Yankees of recent years, and Tribe in the Mid-90's are proof of that.
Having great players does get you into the playoffs, often.
Getting into the playoffs means some other team doesn't.
Indians have an uphill battle getting in from now on.
Homerun numbers are off vs. American League. But not by much haha
I think the key here is exactly as the author spelled it out. How much is Fielder going to improve upon Victor's .330/12/103 line from last season? Also, Victor's leadership, intangibles and clutch hitting also came into play.
The Tigers' defense will be atrocious if Cabrera plays third -- I look forward to seeing that.
What people need to realize is that looking at the Tribe's lineup, you have few players who are in line for a possible regression: Justin Masterson and Asrubal Cabrera both had career ""breakout" seasons last year. It could be that both have just matured and figured it out, but my guess is you'll get a bit of a drop-off in production but not huge.
On the flip-side, you have many others who are due for a bounce back or are on the cusp of getting it. Shin-Soo Choo hit .300 three consecutive seasons, last year was a fluke filled with DUIs and injuries. Grady Sizemore was tearing up before his torn up body collapsed. But, if he stays healthy (debatable), he's good for .250/25/85 and maybe more if he hits 5th or 6th in his contract year at age 29. Ubaldo Jimenez could easily right himself and produce a line of 15 wins/180Ks/3.50 ERA along with Masterson. I think Michael Brantley is on the verge of a breakout year and Kipnis and Chisenhall could both be pleasant surprises.
Also, a true strength is their bullpen and very deep bench. So when the regulars are resting or get injured, production shouldn't drop off.
I am excited about the coming season. Don't expect the Tribe to roll over and die just because Prince Fielder is in the division.
Supposed to say 26 homers for Fielder vs. AL. Typo on my part.
Even with Fielder, I'd be surprised if their offense scores more runs this coming year than last year. Peralta and Martinez overperformed last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Avila came down to earth a bit. With the defensive liability they've created, what's Fielder's over Martinez's production from last year worth? Really this is kind of a nutty move. If their owner wants to spend the money, then more power to him I guess, but they needed pitching. Especially if the goal is the World Series, not just winning a division full of bad-to-mediocre teams. If they were willing to spend $215 million, why weren't they a player for some of the free agent pitchers out there? They could've signed CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish and Papelbon with that money. If they'd done that, I'd give them the division. As it stands, they're an injury and an underperformance away from sucking. They spend a lot of money, but in bizarre fashion. How many DH's can you have on one team? I think they likely angered the baseball gods with their stupidity and will crash and burn ... they smell like the AL version of the Mets.
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