Prospects in the wind and free agent first basemen

Matt LaPorta (Photo: AP)

Many voices have shouted from their teepee’s about what the Indians should do at the not-so-hot corner.

Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman are available and potential fits (though left-handed in the heavily tilted Tribe lineup). Matt LaPorta is the struggling not-so-green prospect (but right-handed). It is very clear to say that Kotchman or Pena are more guaranteed bats and certainly better defenders. So why not make the relatively low-risk investment (also, I’m a big Kotchman fan if we do, FYI).

There are many factors beyond player selection that are going into this decision:

Long Term team performance – Basically, does the organization want to completely abandon the biggest piece from the CC Sabathia trade? LaPorta seems to have officially “died” as a prospect, but he just turned 27 and has roughly two seasons worth of plate appearances and many of these have come while injured. While unlikely, LaPorta could still figure things out and become the eventual Hafner replacement after this season because he is not a good defender at first base.

Short Term team performance – The Indians have a window this year, with the Victor Martinez injury(1/24/12)Update: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder and will score many runs and are prohibitive favortiesBUT the Indians have a lineup loaded with bounce-back and break-out potential (Choo, Sizemore, Carmona + prospects galore). This is also intimately tied with financial success and the ability to pursue locking up the young core and signing on needed complementary pieces.

Economics – The Indians do not want to spend money that isn’t delivering high-class bang for their buck. This is where my issue with signing on Pena and Kotchman begins and ends: if we sign them, what are the chances that one of them is the difference between playoff contention for the entire season (to the extent it drives attendance) and being a non-factor? In my mind, it is extremely small. Granted, so too, is the financial commitment the Indians will have to make. In addition to this, if first base is really a sore spot and the Indians feel they are extremely close to contention after a fractional season they can just go after the numerous first basemen available as the year continues on.

Win Probability – Let’s say the Indians pick Pena, and lets further say that he turns into a three-win player (fair, he had six Wins Above Replacement in 2007, but has settled in around/below this level). So the Indians get him for the entire season and get their three wins above LaPorta, who we will further assume is a 0 win player.

Flexibility - Around the half-way point of the season, teams make the decision to go for it or throw in the towel. At this point, Pena might have accumulated 1.5 more wins than LaPorta. These wins would be very unlikely to sway Indians management to go for it as opposed to conceding defeat…too many other parts are too important in determining this component. The Indians could just give LaPorta more time to establish himself, while sometimes spelling him with Santana and then make the evaluation with a half season of LaPorta’s prime and theoretically only missing out on 1.5 wins. This will simultaneously give themselves the chance to complete their evaluation of LaPorta and not make a year-long financial commitment to a rental player.

In conclusion, the Indians need to ask themselves a few questions: Is Matt LaPorta completely a bust and ready to be written off? Will Pena or Kotchman be THE difference between contention and not? Will there be zero acceptable first base candidates available at the mid-point of the season? Will the resulting wins and playoff contention, coupled with the front-office admission of a failed prospect that headlined the trade that sent a huge part of the franchise away, drive financial success capable of securing core players?

If you can definitively answer “yes” to all of these questions, you have a compelling argument to sign a first-basemen. If you are unsure, or can answer “no” to any of these, you might just want to advocate keeping what we have and waiting things out. After all, you are only giving up a little more than one win and you might just be surprised with what you had in the cupboard.

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Tribe Happenings: First base void could be filled soon

Pena's power would be much welcomed

to the Indians lineup. (Photo: AP)

Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Indians notebook…

First base options come into focus

The Indians are about five weeks from the start of spring training as pitchers and catchers will report on February 20th. As spring training gets closer a lot of teams are still making moves to add players to their Major League rosters, and the Indians could be one of them very soon. Reports this week surfaced that talks between the Indians and free agent first basemen Casey Kotchman and Carlos Pena have heated up.

The Indians have yet to address their need at first base this offseason, but they have been talking to lots of free agents and to lots of teams about potential trades to fill their need there. After Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the market for the remaining first baseman was expected to drag out late into the winter, and it has. In fact, Fielder has yet to sign with a team.

There are lots of options still available in free agency that could fill the Indians void at first base. The three best and most popular options after Fielder are Derrek Lee, Kotchman, and Pena. At the moment the Indians’ interest in Lee appears cool so the focus appears to be Kotchman and Pena. Both Pena and Kotchman bring their own intangibles and positives to the team, but also their own negatives as well.

Pena, 33, is someone a lot of people like simply because of his power. He has had five straight seasons of 28 or more homers including a three year stretch from 2007-2009 where he hit 46, 31, and 39 homers respectively. He also plays good defense and walks a lot as he has had five straight seasons with 87 or more walks, which has helped supplement a poor batting average in almost every season (career .239 AVG). On the flip side, he has also struck out at least 142 times in a season for five straight years.

Kotchman, 28, is a guy a lot of people like because he puts the ball in play. In 2588 career at bats he has struck out just 289 times, and last season he hit .306 with the Rays. Like Pena, he is also a good defender. The problem with him is he had a good 2007 and 2011, but the years in between there from 2008-2010 were not much better from an offensive standpoint than Matt LaPorta, so the Indians run the risk of getting that player. While he can hit 10-15 home runs, he lacks the big power of Pena.

If in fact the Indians are making a decision between the two players, it is a tough decision they have to make. The way things are looking they will likely sign one of these two players, but the question is who and which one is the best fit?

Both are are solid to above average defenders, so evaluating their defense is moot as both will provide a defensive boost at first base the Indians need. It is the offense that will be the separator and determines which player fits best.

Most of the focus is on adding a power bat, but the Indians also need guys that can consistently put the bat on the ball and be productive. The Indians were actually in the middle of the pack in power last season as their 154 home runs ranked them 16th in MLB, and their .714 OPS was 18th in the league. But the Indians struck out 1269 times which was 5th worst in the entire league and was the highest total in franchise history.

Do the Indians sign Pena and add him to a lineup already full of windmills? He struck out 161 times in 493 at bats last season. By the same token, Kotchman struck out 66 times in 500 at bats. Is the benefit of more extra base hit power with a guy like Pena more valuable than a guy like Kotchman who put the ball in play 100 more times than Pena did last season in the same number of at bats?

As I noted in last week’s notebook, the addition of a left-handed or right-handed bat at first base hardly changes anything with the Indians lineup. Even if they were to add a mid-level right-handed bat this offseason they would still have six left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters (that are best from the left side) in the lineup. Whether they sign a left-handed or right-handed bat, the lineup is still left-handed heavy either way and can be matched up to late in games.

At this point the Indians simply just need to sign the best player, be it the powerful, strikeout prone bat of Pena or the contact oriented, questionable bat of Kotchman. It is a tough decision, but then again that is why GM Chris Antonetti gets to sit in the chair and make those decisions.

Spring invites

The Indians announced two more signings this week as they inked right-handed pitcher Chris Ray and left-handed pitcher Chris Seddon to minor league deals with an invite to Major League spring training.

Ray, 30, owns an 18-19 record with 51 saves and a 4.10 ERA in six Major League seasons. Last year he pitched for the Seattle Mariners and in 29 appearances went 3-2 with a 4.68 ERA until his season ended prematurely on July 30th because of a right lat injury. His best season was with the Baltimore Orioles in 2006 when he was their closer and went 4-4 with 33 saves and 2.73 ERA. Due to his experience and past effectiveness out of the bullpen, he could be a dark horse candidate to win the final bullpen spot this spring.

Seddon, 28, owns a 93-88 record with a 4.64 ERA in 266 games (250 starts) over his 11-year minor league career. He also owns a 1-2 record and 7.03 ERA in 21 career big league appearances, with his last year in the majors coming in 2010 with the Seattle Mariners. He is not really an option to pitch in Cleveland this year and is simply depth for the Triple-A Columbus pitching staff.

The Indians also announced six internal non-roster spring invites from their farm system: right-handed pitcher Hector Ambriz, right-handed pitcher Austin Adams, catcher Chun Chen, right-handed pitcher Chen-Chang (C.C.) Lee, outfielder/first baseman Chad Huffman, and right-handed pitcher Tyler Sturdevant. All of these players are not expected to make the opening day roster, but will be options the Indians consider adding to the roster later in the season.

With the two minor league signings and six internal invites the Indians are now up to a total of 15 non-roster invites this spring. The other players recently signed to minor league deals with an invite to Major League spring training are catcher Luke Carlin, catcher Michael Hernandez, infielder Andy LaRoche, infielder Jose Lopez, catcher Matt Pagnozzi, outfielder Felix Pie, and right-handed pitcher Robinson Tejeda.

Winter Development Program starts Monday

The Indians annual Winter Development Program every January starts up on Monday. It is a two week program that was started up by Team President Mark Shapiro 17 years ago in January of 1996 as a way to hone each player’s physical, mental, and fundamental skills.

The program mostly involves players who are expected to make their Major League debut in the upcoming season, who have recently been acquired in a trade, or are a high level prospect nearing a big league opportunity. It serves as an introduction for many of the minor league players to the Progressive Field facility, big league coaching staff, and the city itself.

The Indians will conduct the program out of Progressive Field the first week of the program. During the first week players will live with host families in the Cleveland area and attend various extracurricular activities as well as other community and charitable appearances and tours of local attractions. For the second week of the program they will go to the Indians Player Development Complex in Goodyear, Arizona. There they will hone their skills on the diamond while continuing to take part in strength and conditioning activities.

The 11 participants this year are right-handed pitcher Austin Adams, right-handed pitcher Rob Bryson, catcher Chun Chen, outfielder Aaron Cunningham, infielder Juan Diaz, outfielder Tim Fedroff, outfielder Jordan Henry, left-handed pitcher T.J. McFarland, outfielder Thomas Neal, catcher Roberto Perez, and right-handed pitcher Tyler Sturdevant.

Carolina dreaming

On Thursday the Indians’ announced they have extended their Player Development contract with their new High-A Carolina Mudcats affiliate an additional two years. The Mudcats will now be the High-A affiliate home of the Indians minor leaguers through the 2014 season.

The Mudcats are the Indians new High-A affiliate this season because their former High-A Kinston Indians affiliate was sold to the Mudcats last winter. As part of the celebration with their first season working together, the Indians will play an exhibition game against the Mudcats at their home field Five County Stadium in Zebulon, North Carolina on April 3rd.

The Indians will travel to Zebulon at the conclusion of spring training to participate in the exhibition game before moving on to Cleveland for the season opener against the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field on April 5th.

Tribe on Tour

The Indians have unveiled the dates, locations, and participants for their annual winter promotional tour. This year “Tribe on Tour” will run from January 26-29 and include several Cleveland Indians staff members, players, and radio personalities. Each event will feature live player interviews, autograph sessions, Indians themed games with the opportunity to win great prizes, and team mascot Slider will be on hand as well.

Each event is free to attend and will include the following Indians’ participants: manager Manny Acta, Shelley Duncan, Jason Kipnis, Jack Hannahan, Jason Donald, Josh Tomlin, Vinnie Pestano, and radio voice Tom Hamilton.

The date, time and locations are as follows: January 26th (7-9pm) at Westfield Southpark Mall in Strongsville; January 27th (7-9pm) at Westfield Great Northern Mall in North Olmsted; January 28th (12-2pm) at Summit Mall in Akron; and January 29th (12-2pm) at Beachwood Place Mall in Beachwood.

All of the participants listed above will be at each event except Pestano and Hamilton will not be at the January 27th event in North Olmsted. Radio broadcaster Jim Rosenhaus will sub in for Hamilton on that date.

Parting shots

Former Indians infielder Adam Everett has been signed as a Special Assistant to Baseball Operations. In the role he will be in uniform as an instructor in spring training at both big league and minor league camp this spring. During the season he will provide infield instruction and evaluation within the Player Development system. … The Indians have hired Scooter Tucker to be their hitting coach at High-A Carolina. He was a catcher that played for the Indians in 1995 and in 17 games went 0-for-20 at the plate. … Former Indians’ bullpen pitcher Chad Durbin signed a minor league deal with the Miami Marlins this week. …. Former Indians pitcher Justin Germano, who left the organization midseason last year to pitch in Korea, signed a minor league deal with the Boston Red Sox this week. … The Indians signed infielder Chin-Lung Hu and right-handed pitcher Willy Lebron to minor league contracts this week, but neither player will report to big league camp this spring as they are only depth for Triple-A Columbus.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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Winter Meetings Rundown: Day 3

Carlos Lee (Photo: AP)

In the past 24 hours there have not been many rumors with the Indians close to anything on the free agent or trade front, but that is how things are in general at the Winter Meetings as it seems everyone is waiting for Albert Pujols to make his decision. Once that big domino falls there could be a flurry of activity over the final 12-24 hours in Dallas before the meetings come to a close tomorrow afternoon.

With Pujols likely to go back to St. Louis it means that Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez may no longer be available, which is unfortunate for teams like the Indians and others looking for a first baseman. The Marlins could still trade Sanchez if they land free agent first baseman Prince Fielder, but without Fielder or Pujols in tow it seems unlikely they would create a hole at first base and trade Sanchez. Even if Sanchez becomes available, the Indians are not the slam dunk trading partner so many seem to think they are with the Marlins. I have heard that the Tampa Bay Rays would have a strong interest in Sanchez if he is available, and with their numerous big league starting pitching options at their disposal they match up a lot better in a trade with the Marlins than the Indians do. Even after signing free agent left-handed pitcher Mark Buehrle the Marlins still need more help for the starting rotation.

Players offered salary arbitration by their teams have to accept or decline by midnight ET tonight. The feeling is that the market will become much clearer once players declare their arbitration intentions. There are several free agents on the Indians’ radar that have arbitration decisions to make, namely first basemen Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee. Pena has already declined arbitration, though it is still unknown whether or not Lee will accept arbitration with the Pirates. If Lee accepts arbitration he would no longer be a free agent.

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported earlier this morning that the Indians have talked to the agent for free agent right-handed reliever Dan Wheeler. It would make no sense to sign him now as the Indians do not need to sign a reliever, but they could be laying some groundwork for a potential deal later on this offseason if they clear some of their current Major League bullpen to fill a need for the lineup. Wheeler would be a solid veteran bullpen option to consider that won’t cost a lot and can be signed for one year. He may also be able to move into a setup role if current setup man Vinnie Pestano is moved into the closer’s role because Chris Perez is traded.

The Athletics have let it be known that left-handed starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez is available. He is very intriguing for just about any team as he is a Super 2 arbitration eligible player this offseason and is not a free agent until after the 2015 season. He is highly viewed around the league, and the Athletics will likely demand an Ubaldo Jimenez-like haul for him, maybe even more. Even though the Indians need a bat, they should absolutely do their due diligence and inquire about Gonzalez and see what the Athletics are asking for in return for him. It appears the Indians do not have the ammo to pull off a deal for him even if they were interested, but you never know as the thought of adding another cost controlled front of the rotation starter type for at least four more years may push the Indians to get extremely creative.

GM Chris Antonetti made a comment to Indians media yesterday that he had a trade proposal in the works that would be shocking if it happens and said "I'm pretty sure I could give you 50 guesses and you probably wouldn't get it." After lobbing that salvo, the speculation has been crazy ever since. Many fans think it could be Hanley Ramirez of the Marlins, but I just think it is highly unlikely because 1.) the Marlins are currently not interested in trading him 2.) the Marlins would want lots of big league talent in return which is something the Indians cannot afford to part with and 3.) Ramirez does not fit the kind of profile the Indians would go overboard to acquire in a trade because of some makeup issues. Another sticking point would be the $15 million-plus owed to Ramirez the next three seasons, which is a contract well beyond their comfort zone. No matter how good the player, I get the impression after being burned in long term deals with Jake Westbrook and Travis Hafner in the past that it will be a long time if ever that we see anyone with the Indians signed or acquired that is paid over $10 million for three or more years.

Jim Bowden of ESPN Insider talked to Indians manager Manny Acta today on his MLB Network Radio show and Acta said the Indians are still looking for a big bat. He said the Indians would prefer the bat be at first base and has to be inexpensive after the Grady Sizemore resigning and Derek Lowe acquisition. This really limits the Indians’ pursuit as it means just about any player available in free agency is out of play unless they create room on the payroll by dealing another player (Chris Perez?). The obvious inexpensive yet impact bat options are Gaby Sanchez and Yonder Alonso, but I am not sure the Indians have the ammo to pull off a deal for either player or are the right fit. They surely have the talent to do any deal, but considering they want to trade from their position of strength in relief pitching it just will not cut it in any major deal unless they part with a lot more. Even if they offered Chris Perez for Alonso they likely would still have to include more.

The one thing that is kind of unsettling is how the Indians have almost no money leftover this offseason to spend. It was known going into the offseason that they only had about $60-65 million to spend, and when you add in all the expected raises in arbitration it left about $10-15 million to spend this offseason. The Indians decided to use that money by resigning Sizemore for $5 million and trading for Derek Lowe for another $5 million. By taking the chance on an oft-injured outfielder and back of the rotation starter in the twilight of his career the Indians pretty much blew all their available money to upgrade the offense in any way through free agency. I’m not a big proponent of free agency, but by going the route they have so far it has really pushed them into a corner where the only option available is to trade for a bat. That may have been the plan all along as the first base options in free agency are not all that great, but I know a lot of fans are already rolling their eyes after hearing the Indians are broke and can’t add a bat because they spread the available money on question marks like Sizemore and Lowe.

Not that first baseman/outfielder Carlos Lee is the answer, but because they are now strapped financially the Indians had to turn down an offer from the Astros yesterday where they offered to trade Lee to the Indians and pick up half of his $18.5 million salary in 2012. Lee is not the player he was three to five years ago, but he would still be an upgrade to the offense and add some needed power from the right side. This is a deal that could still be revisited down the road where the Astros pick up more of his contract or the Indians clear some payroll.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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Past and present Rays could be key to Indians' winter

Carlos Pena (Photo: AP)

There are plenty of parallels between the Cleveland Indians and the Tampa Bay Rays.

They are both small-market teams who have generally been able to handle the obstacles of their financial situations better than most in recent years, whether it be creatively locking up a young superstar, maintaining talented minor league systems, or having postseason success. Conversely, both organizations have also dealt with the harsh realities of their locations: losing talent and baseball games to bigger, richer teams.

As the offseason speeds towards December and the always crucial Winter Meetings, the Indians' front office may find the answers to its two most glaring problem positions, first base and outfield, in the form of current or former Rays.

B.J. Upton is the most talented and most valuable of the four players to be mentioned here in this article (and the lone non-free agent). He is a seemingly ideal addition to the Indians, and one that had reportedly been considered by Tribe brass before the trade deadline. Often viewed as a bit of an underperformer due to being a former second overall pick, he is still a highly productive player who contributes in all areas of the game.

Over the past four seasons, Upton has accounted for 1.0 more wins than Shin-Soo Choo (15.5 wins above replacement to 14.5), whom no one would consider a disappointment before his injury-plagued 2010. While Upton has accumulated a fairly larger number of plate appearances than Choo in those four seasons, that is mostly because he has been able to stay on the field - something Choo, nor any of the Indians' outfielders were able to do this past season.

At age 27, Upton is entering his prime. His speed can impact a team both on the bases (36+ stolen bases in all four of his full Major League seasons) and in center field, an aspect that the Indians sorely lack. Defensively, he has regressed in recent years, but has shown the ability to be near-elite, and is, at the least, above-average overall.

Perhaps Upton's most appealing quality to this team would be his pop from the right side of the plate, a glaring need. He is by no means a masher, but can drive the ball (career .416 slugger, and a steady rise in home runs over since 2008), and his speed makes him a constant extra-base threat. Acquiring him would come at a fairly high cost, as his talent, upside and reasonable final year of arbitration means the Rays would require a substantial trade package.

Another outfielder, Johnny Damon, would likely be a last resort. In fact, labeling him an outfielder now may even be inaccurate. At age 38, Damon's days left in baseball could all come as a designated hitter, and he is not a right-handed alternative to Travis Hafner at the "position."

Still, Damon has somehow managed to continue on as a reasonably productive hitter (.756 on-base plus slugging and 56 runs batted in in 2010, .743 and 73 in 2011), and he would be one of the Indians' best base-stealing threats (unfortunately). And while the value of "leadership" is probably overstated, it is worth mentioning that his veteran presence could help this young Indians team in one regard or another. He has signed one-year deals for $8 million and $5.25 million in each of the last two seasons, meaning another decline in pay as he ages would put him at a fair price.

The turn towards first base focuses on Casey Kotchman and former Ray, Carlos Pena. As the Indians have added another groundball pitcher to their rotation in the form of Derek Lowe, improving the defense on the infield becomes even more important. Asdrubal Cabrera, while having shown the ability to make some of the best plays in the league, was rated very poorly at shortstop. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, who figure to be at least average fielders eventually, are going to show their youth.

Both Kotchman and Pena offer formidable gloves at first base, and that could be an important selling point for either of them. Both hit left-handed, which, of course, isn't preferred. Kotchman is the better fielder, but Pena is the far superior hitter. He has been one of the game's better sluggers over the past five seasons, averaging over 34 home runs, 97 runs batted in and collecting an on-base plus slugging nearing .900. But, at age 33, his bat speed has clearly taken a hit in recent years. Kotchman has never been more than a middling offensive first baseman, and isn't going to offer much in the way of power. As it goes, neither are anywhere near perfect additions.

Slugging first basemen who get on base consistently and play great defense, such as Albert Pujols, will make money far out of the Indians' price range, so there are going to be flaws. Scott Boras' client, Pena, may push the team's financial comfort zone. He earned every bit of the $10 million deal he signed with the Cubs last season, and could be looking for at least that again (potentially over multiple seasons). Kotchman, on the other hand, could easily be had.

None of these four options are elite players, but small-market clubs such as the Indians and Rays can very rarely expect to obtain that kind of talent unless they develop it themselves. That said, Upton, Damon, Pena and Kotchman all present strengths in areas of need that would be beneficial to the Tribe, and all could be potential targets as the winter wears on.

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