Onto the next installment of the IPI Inbox….
Jeff S. wrote: Any word on the player to be named in the Kelly Shoppach trade?
Me: Nothing new really, and the Indians have made a concerted effort to be tight-lipped about it too. All that is really known for sure is the Indians have a short list of two players to choose from, and the deadline to make the decision is this Sunday December 20th. They have commented that a decision is not expected to be made before the December 20th deadline and that it somehow is tied in with arbitration (could have had something to do with the Rays tendering Shoppach last week). They have also hinted that it is likely for a pitcher.
In some ways it may be another player to be named setup like the one the Indians did in the C.C. Sabathia trade to the Milwaukee Brewers two years ago. In that deal the Brewers and Indians agreed on a unique arrangement for the player to be named where the Indians had a list of two players as the player to be named, outfielder Michael Brantley and infielder Taylor Green. The unique arrangement was that if the Brewers made the playoffs, the Indians would pick the player to be named, while if the Brewers missed the playoffs then the Brewers would pick the player to be named. This same kind of arrangement possibly could be in play in the Shoppach deal, and may be how the arbitration angle fits in. Putting my speculation hat on, the way it may work is if the Rays had non-tendered Shoppach then the player to be named would be their choice, but since they tendered him then the Indians get the choice.
Indians.com beat reporter Anthony Castrovince last week made mention that he had an unconfirmed report that the two players being considered are right-handed pitchers Mitch Talbot and Joseph Cruz. Talbot has a fastball which sits at 91-93 MPH and has topped out at 94 MPH and has a very good changeup, good command, and throws strikes. But he is plagued by consistency issues and has questionable poise in tough situations. On top of all that he is out of options, so he would have to make the big league staff either as a starter or reliever. Given his questionable pitching history it is hard to believe he would beat out any of the Indians current eight candidates for the starting rotation or make their bullpen which already includes a guy in right-hander Hector Ambriz who has to make the roster as well or be offered back to Arizona. The Indians appear to already have a left-handed version of Talbot from a stuff standpoint and with the same options issue, that being Jeremy Sowers.
Cruz on the other hand would be an interesting pickup. He is still very much a prospect with upside at age 21 and a nice projectable frame at 6’4” 195 pounds. His fastball sits in the low 90s and has touched 94 MPH. He has some deception with his delivery which plays up the speed of his fastball, and he complements it with a curveball and changeup which have potential as solid average pitches. He would be an interesting relief prospect, and would seem to be a better fit long term than Talbot.
In any case, all the questions surrounding this deal should (almost) be answered when the Indians make the selection by the end of the weekend.
Jim F. wrote: Tony, what's the chance of a Peralta/prospect trade to San Diego to get the Kouz back (he never should have been traded)?
Me: No chance really. Looking at the two players, a Peralta for Kouzmanoff trade would not make much sense from the Indians perspective. Kouzmanoff was certainly a fan favorite during his time in the Indians minor league system up through 2006, especially after his great year in 2006 where he hit .379 with a 1.093 OPS in 94 games between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Buffalo. But, in a little over three seasons in the big leagues he has a .261 career batting average and .743 OPS. Compare that to Peralta who in a little more than six seasons has a career .266 batting average and .756 OPS. Not to mention Peralta is almost a year younger and the difference in their defense is negligible as they are both not considered gifted glove men.
Now, there is always the possibility the Indians could deal Peralta to another team, and then it may make some sense to go looking in the Padres direction at Kouzmanoff. But with Kouzmanoff starting to get expensive considering he is now in his arbitration years, it is not likely. Not to mention the Indians have some good third base prospects in Wes Hodges and Lonnie Chisenhall both expected to be on the scene in Cleveland soon. If Peralta is dealt, the Indians would likely turn to a short team option like Andy Marte or even Jason Donald until Hodges is considered ready at some point this season.
Chad wrote: Tony, someone that hasn't been mentioned at all for the utility infielder job is Ronnie Belliard. I think he would be perfect. He plays mainly second base, but can also play third base, he would be cheap, he was a fan favorite in Cleveland, he is right-handed and hits lefties well, and could probably fill-in everyday if he had to. I just wanted to know if you had heard anything or what you thought. Thanks!
Me: Chad, you are probably onto something. As we know the Indians have a history with Belliard since he played here for two and a half seasons from 2004-2006. He looks exactly like the kind of guy who they may bring in to fill their need for a utility player who primarily plays second base and third base. The importance of a utility player to play shortstop is not very important considering Jhonny Peralta can slide over and play shortstop on days that Asdrubal Cabrera needs a day off, and Luis Valbuena has also showed himself to be a capable shortstop when needed.
The Indians want a right-handed hitter to play second base that can complement Luis Valbuena, and Belliard would certainly seem to fit. With a platoon at second base where Valbuena would get 70-75% of the playing time, they need a right-handed hitter who is a reliable defender who has a history of hitting lefties well. Belliard may be that answer. He hit .282 with a .842 OPS against lefties last year for Washington, and in the last three seasons has hit .311 with a .918 OPS against them. He is still available on the free agent market, and should fit right into their price range.
Matt H. wrote: Can you give me a scouting report on Josh Tomlin? I believe he [was] eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
Me: Matt, yes, Josh Tomlin was Rule 5 eligible. I haven't posted my 2010 scouting report of him yet, but for his 2009 scouting report go here:
http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2009/02/indians-top-100-prospects-22-josh.html
Aaron H. wrote: Please explain how most teams operate financially? I am in a little debate about how some teams spend their money and or don’t spend their money. The person thinks if a team is not spending up in the top ten that their not trying. He said that every team is on an unlimited budget of sorts and he keeps referring to the 1990’s. Those were completely different times for several reasons. I don't agree with any of that, and the Indians payroll was on the rise since 2004. Is it a bit unfair to say the Dolans are cheap? Also, how much of a factor is it with the market that the Indians are in? Not every team can spend top ten money.
Me: Aaron, this has truly become one of the most over-talked about and dead horse beaten issues in this town since really the Indians tore the team apart halfway through the 2002 season and went into a massive rebuilding project. The Dolan’s are in a no-win situation with the fans on this one really.
But to try and answer your question, there are only a handful of teams which can spend in the top ten year in and year out. The big markets for the most part make up this exclusive list because they have the larger fanbase and market size to pull from. It's easier to sell tickets when your local fanbase in New York or Los Angeles is 10-15 times larger (or whatever it is) than what it is in a much smaller market than Cleveland or Kansas City. That’s reality. More customers allow you the chance to sell to more people. This also applies to merchandise, TV, radio, advertising, etc. It is an unequal playing field for sure, and why the Indians payroll in the low $80 millions last year will probably be their high water mark going forward.
Brian M. wrote: I was just wondering how the Kinston Indian's rotation will shape up. They have so many options to choose from with Nick Hagadone, Kelvin de la Cruz, Alex White, Jason Knapp, TJ House, Bryan Price, and Joseph Garland. Obviously they aren't going to go with a seven-man rotation, so I was wondering if you had any idea on what the rotation will be. Will this cornucopia of depth force them to convert Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price into relievers? Or will they keep Bryan Price and Nick Hagadone in the rotation and keep TJ House and someone else in Lake County. Or could Bryan Price and Nick Hagadone be ready to pitch for Akron's starting rotation?
Me: I think Price will be a reliever next year, though Hagadone will likely open in the rotation at Kinston. Hagadone may at some point convert to a reliever if the Indians feel the need to fast track him or he has some injury concerns, but with his stuff they have to see him through as a starting pitcher before making such a move. As for the Kinston rotation, my early guess is White, Gardner, Hagadone and House for sure. After that, any one of Chris Jones, Joey Mahalic, Danny Salazar, Jason Knapp, Bryce Stowell, and T.J. McFarland could fill the other spot. Mahalic is coming off a serious injury and if healthy Knapp will likely open in Lake County, so if I had to make a guess I would go with McFarland for the final spot though Jones, Stowell, and Salazar will have a lot to say about that.
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This is a followup note to the question posed on the whereabouts of International prospect Edward Salcedo in the last edition of the IPI Inbox.
I have received some word from a person with ties to someone who recently talked to Salcedo, and supposedly he is having visa issues which is why he has not yet signed with any team. Supposedly the Dominican government has not given him a visa because they are not sure who he is. The reason for their uncertainty is they believe he is not actually Edward Salcedo, but actually an older brother since they think Edward Salcedo is the name of a younger brother of his that died some time ago. This is the government’s claim, whether right or wrong, and it is why he has not signed anywhere as he is trying to prove their claim false.
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