2011 Major League Awards Predictions

Matt Kemp (Photo: AP)

The IPI's Kevin Dean and Andrew Zajac offer two varying points of view in their predictions on who wins some of the big awards that Major League Baseball will announce next week. They agree on a few awards, but how they determine the winner for each award could not be any more different.

American League Most Valuable Player

Andrew Zajac: Jose Bautista

This is one of the most up in the air predictions that can go several different ways. For a while, it seemed like the front runner was Curtis Granderson, who fell down to Earth towards season's end. Miguel Cabrera is also a serious candidate here and is easily the most valuable player of the Tigers' lineup. He did hit .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI's while hitting 48 doubles and scoring 111 runs. The only major category he led the league in is average, but did so by a fairly wide margin. Bautista, on the other hand, hit .302 with 43 home runs and 103 RBI's while hitting 24 doubles and scoring 105 runs. So you're probably thinking to yourself, Cabrera basically has better numbers than Bautista. True, but he's not the only one Bautista is competing with. Ellsbury also makes an incredibly strong case for himself as well. In the end, what are the Jays without Bautista? What are the Tigers without Cabrera? And what are the Red Sox without Ellsbury? Clearly, the Jays would be hurt the worst in this scenario. Probably not exactly the best logic, but you might as well flip a coin on this award anyway. It could go a number of different ways.

Kevin Dean: Jacoby Ellsbury

This is essentially a coin flip between Ellsbury and Jose Bautista. Not many expected Bautista to repeat his out-of-nowhere 2010 like he did, and not many expected Ellsbury to recover from his injury-plagued 2010 like he did. While Bautista may have been more "valuable" to the Blue Jays than Ellsbury was to the Red Sox, that says more about either of their teams than about these two individual players, and shouldn't be the determining factor. Bautista had considerably higher percentages (on-base, slugging, wOBA) but the other batting peripherals are close. I don't think anyone would argue that Bautista was more valuable in the batter's box, but Ellsbury slightly edges Bautista because of his all-around play. 39 stolen bases, the element of speed in every facet of the game and exceptional defense at a premier position push him over the top for me. A 9.4 wins above replacement level to Bautista's 8.3 supports Ellsbury as the better overall player, but again, not by much. I don't expect Curtis Granderson to be as serious of a threat to the award as many might think, and Justin Verlander should make very little noise here.

National League Most Valuable Player

Andrew Zajac: Matt Kemp

A dodger winning both the Cy Young AND the MVP? I must be crazy, right? Ryan Braun had a hell of a year and is comfortably the second place winner, but Kemp was so close to being the first triple crown winner in quite a while. Kemp hit .324 with 39 home runs and 126 RBI's while stealing 40 bases and scoring 115 runs. Braun hit .332 with 33 home runs and 111 RBI's while stealing 32 bases and scoring 109 runs. Braun is no slouch and makes it nearly too close to call.

Kevin Dean: Matt Kemp

Just like its American League counterpart, this probably ends up being more or less a coin toss. In fact, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if either race ended with co-winners. Kemp bounced back from a disappointing 2010 campaign in the most major of ways, but Ryan Braun had a similarly impressive season. Kemp beat Braun in most offensive categories by very slim amounts, and accounted for 0.9 more wins. They both provided about equally average defense in the outfield (Kemp plays the more valuable center field), though fielding metrics are difficult to judge based on a single year. Kemp wins by besting Braun across most of the board, but the gaps are minuscule throughout. It is worth noting that Kemp had 60 more plate appearances. Impossibly close. Roy Halladay will probably take away a few first-place votes, and in my opinion, he will be more of a factor to this race than Verlander in the American League.

American League Cy Young

Andrew Zajac: Justin Verlander

This is one of the easiest predictions I will ever make. Many believe he is also a candidate for MVP, but I'm not in that camp. However, I do believe he is a virtual lock for the Cy Young Award. Verlander posted a 24-5 record with a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts. Every time he took the mound this year he had the potential of throwing a no-no, and he actually did throw one. Like Clayton Kershaw, he led the AL in all three major pitching categories and his WHIP was .92, which is light years ahead of any other pitcher. Verlander will win this award, hands down. C.C Sabathia is my runner up.

Kevin Dean: Justin Verlander

The voting won't be, but this race might have been a little bit closer than many imagine. C.C. Sabathia turned in a season that saw him top Verlander in FIP (fielding independent pitching, which is a measure of how well a pitcher has done based on what he can control, not results of luck, poor defense, etc.) and wins above replacement, but still, the award is Verlander's and had been for most of the season. The difference between the two in either of those categories was not large (just 0.1 in wins above replacement), and Verlander paced Sabathia (and usually the league) in plenty of other areas, including wins, earned run average, strikeouts and walks per nine innings, WHIP and average against, among others. He also threw a no-hitter. Keith Law put it in a way I think is very fitting, saying something along the lines of him "winning the narrative." Verlander was almost transcended into a somewhat of a myth by the media, and there is no way he doesn't come away with this award.

National League Cy Young

Andrew Zajac: Clayton Kershaw

For years now, we've been hearing about Clayton Kershaw's potential and the rare ability he possesses. This season he finally put it all together and without a doubt is the front runner for the NL Cy Young. He posted a 21-5 record with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts, all of this while pitching on a poor team that gave him little run support. He also led the NL in all three major pitching categories. I give him the slight edge over Roy Halladay because of that fact. Halladay is fairly close, who would get my second place vote, but again, Kershaw is the clear front runner.

Kevin Dean: Roy Halladay

2011 was the best year of Halladay's illustrious career, as measured by wins above replacement. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean he was the best pitcher in the National League in 2011, but I still think he was. The margin of difference in WAR totals between Halladay and Clayton Kershaw was much wider than that of Sabathia and Verlander (1.4 wins). Halladay also topped Kershaw in FIP. Kershaw led Halladay in most every other category by a small margin, and he didn't pitch on a staff with two other potential aces, but I still think Halladay is awarded the hardware, and deservedly so. This may end up being the closest voting for any award.

American League Rookie of the Year

Andrew Zajac: Jeremy Hellickson

A product of the defense behind him, Hellickson still shined more than the rest of the rookies in the American League. He went 13-10 on the year with a 2.95 ERA. He stuck out 117 while walking 72, with a 1.15 WHIP. Opposing batters hit .210 off him. One alarming number was the number of home runs he allowed (21). You can also make an argument for Dustin Ackley, who had a fantastic year with the Mariners.

Kevin Dean: Michael Pineda

This is probably the most wide open award of all. Whether or not Pineda actually does win, I think a Seattle Mariner will, as Dustin Ackley figures to be a top candidate, too. I'm not going to give Pineda credit for pitching on an awful team, just like I didn't to Bautista for hitting on a (less) awful team. However, Pineda looked like one of the best pitchers in the league for awhile, and posted the highest wins above replacement level among league rookies. He also struck out the second most hitters per nine innings in the American League, topping even Verlander and Sabathia. Mark Trumbo, Ivan Nova and Brett Lawrie are considerable, as well.

National League Rookie of the Year

Andrew Zajac: Craig Kimbrel

This is another slam dunk prediction right here, some of which I feel is for the wrong reason; the NL rookie class wasn't entirely strong this season. He saved 46 of 54 games for the Braves with a 2.10 ERA, and in 77 innings he struck out 127 hitters. Honorable mention goes out to his teammate Freddie Freeman who will likely finish second in the race.

Kevin Dean: Craig Kimbrel

There is a school of thought that says closers don't effect the game enough over an entire season to be considered for postseason awards, but Rookie of the Year is the one where it can most widely be accepted and Kimbrel was the best the Senior Circuit had to offer (like Huston Street before him, and Andrew Bailey and Neftali Feliz in the American League). He tied for second in all of baseball with 46 saves and struck out an outrageous 127 batters in 77.0 innings, while holding opposing batters to a .499 on-base plus slugging. He also accumulated a 3.6 wins above replacement level, which was best for a reliever of any kind. This should be an almost unanimous decision, as far as first place votes go.

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2011 Tony Awards: All-Tony Team

Jerad Head (Photo: Lianna Holub)

Today we wrap up the 2011 Tony Awards with the announcement of the All-Tony teams for 2011.

These are the first and second teams as I see them in the Cleveland Indians organization based on their performance this past year.  Again, this is not a top prospect listing by position, but a listing based 100% on performance from the past season. Players acquired in trades in July or later were not eligible to be listed, and for full season teams a player had to have spent at least a half season in the minors.

Here is a one final recap of all eight Tony Awards handed out this year:

Rookie of the Year: Cody Allen (RHP)

Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Bellows (3B)

Biggest Disappointment: Nick Weglarz (OF)

Biggest Breakthrough: Elvis Araujo (LHP)

Reliever of the Year: Chen-Chang Lee (RHP)

Comeback Player of the Year: Beau Mills (1B)

Pitcher of the Year: Jeanmar Gomez (RHP)

Offensive Player of the Year: Jesus Aguilar (1B)

Again, these awards are simply for fun to hand out at the end of the year.  Also, the Cleveland Indians in no way whatsoever had any input in these awards.

1st Team:

C: Jake Lowery - .245 AVG, 43 R, 23 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 43 RBI, 54 BB, 56 K, 3 SB, .792 OPS

1B: Jesus Aguilar - .284 AVG, 70 R, 30 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 46 BB, 126 K, 2 SB, .865 OPS

2B: Cord Phelps - .294 AVG, 51 R, 25 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 51 BB, 89 K, 3 SB, .868 OPS

SS: Luis Valbuena - .302 AVG, 64 R, 22 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 46 BB, 96 K, 6 SB, .848 OPS

3B: Jared Goedert - .272 AVG, 46 R, 20 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 48 RBI, 39 BB, 68 K, 0 SB, .858 OPS

LF: Tim Fedroff - .308 AVG, 71 R, 28 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 63 RBI, 62 BB, 74 K, 10 SB, .793 OPS

CF: Ezequiel Carrera - .287 AVG, 63 R, 8 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 25 RBI, 39 BB, 53 K, 35 SB, .719 OPS

RF: Jerad Head - .284 AVG, 67 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 70 RBI, 25 BB, 99 K, 3 SB, .864 OPS

DH: Robel Garcia - .284 AVG, 31 R, 10 2B, 8 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 23 BB, 50 K, 7 SB, .915 OPS

RHS: Jeanmar Gomez – 10-7, 2.55 ERA, 137.2 IP, 123 H, 49 BB, 107 K, 1.25 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 7.0 K/9

LHS: Elvis Araujo – 9-1, 3.36 ERA, 69.2 IP, 65 H, 25 BB, 63 K, 1.29 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9

MLR: Chen Lee – 6-1, 2.40 ERA, 1 S, 71.1 IP, 53 H, 23 BB, 99 K, 1.07 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 12.5 K/9

MLL: Nick Hagadone – 6-4, 2.79 ERA, 4 S, 71.0 IP, 56 H, 22 BB, 71 K, 1.10 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 9.8 K/9

CL: Cory Burns – 2-5, 2.11 ERA, 35 S, 59.2 IP, 47 H, 15 BB, 70 K, 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 10.6 K/9

2nd Team:

C: Chun Chen - .262 AVG, 58 R, 24 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 43 BB, 122 K, 2 SB, .782 OPS

1B: Beau Mills - .289 AVG, 50 R, 22 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 32 BB, 59 K, 0 SB, .860 OPS

2B: Jason Kipnis - .280 AVG, 65 R, 16 2B, 9 3B, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 44 BB, 72 BB, 12 SB, .846 OPS

SS: Tony Wolters - .292 AVG, 50 R, 10 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 30 BB, 49 K, 19 SB, .748 OPS

3B: Adam Abraham - .252 AVG, 63 R, 31 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 70 BB, 114 K, 5 SB, .792 OPS

LF: Chad Huffman - .246 AVG, 66 R, 30 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 67 BB, 107 K, 5 SB, .766 OPS

CF: Luigi Rodriguez - .304 AVG, 28 R, 10 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 19 BB, 55 K, 18 SB, .779 OPS

RF: Bryson Myles - .302 AVG, 36 R, 10 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 24 BB, 32 K, 20 SB, .795 OPS

DH: Tyler Cannon - .274 AVG, 57 R, 30 2B, 6 2B, 9 HR, 58 RBI, 57 BB, 105 K, 2 SB, .799 OPS

RHS: Zach McAllister – 12-3, 3.32 ERA, 154.2 IP, 155 H, 31 BB, 128 K, 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 7.4 K/9

LHS: Scott Barnes – 8-4, 3.45 ERA, 99.0 IP, 85 H, 36 BB, 107 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9

MLR: Kyle Landis – 10-2, 2.54 ERA, 3 S, 63.2 IP, 52 H, 13 BB, 74 K, 1.02 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 10.5 K/9

MLL: Francisco Jimenez – 6-3, 3.05 ERA, 0 S, 88.2 IP, 79 H, 27 BB, 91 K, 1.20 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9

CL: Preston Guilmet – 1-1, 2.16 ERA, 35 S, 58.1 IP, 43 H, 11 BB, 60 K, 0.93 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 9.3 K/9

Honorable Mentions:

C: Alex Monsalve - .264 AVG, 55 R, 21 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 31 BB, 96 K, 7 SB, .668 OPS

1B: Leonardo Castillo - .303 AVG, 25 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 6 BB, 32 K, 3 SB, .778 OPS

2B: Jose Ramirez - .325 AVG, 30 R, 13 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 7 BB, 17 K, 12 SB, .800 OPS

SS: Ronny Rodriguez - .246 AVG, 41 R, 28 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 13 BB, 83 K, 10 SB, .723 OPS

3B: Jordan Smith - .300 AVG, 36 R, 20 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 47 RBI, 35 BB, 30 K, 3 SB, .794 OPS

LF: Anthony Gallas - .263 AVG, 49 R, 34 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 35 BB, 75 K, 5 SB, .774 OPS

CF: Tyler Holt - .254 AVG, 66 R, 18 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 78 BB, 106 K, 34 SB, .691 OPS

RF: Carlos Moncrief - .233 AVG, 73 R, 26 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 76 BB, 158 K, 20 SB, .768 OPS

DH: Jeremie Tice - .258 AVG, 39 R, 16 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 36 BB, 73 K, 1 SB, .793 OPS

RHS: Austin Adams – 11-10, 3.77 ERA, 136.0 IP, 147 H, 63 BB, 131 K, 1.54 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

LHS: Mike Rayl – 6-8, 3.42 ERA, 123.2 IP, 114 H, 26 BB, 121 K, 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 8.8 K/9

MLR: Tyler Sturdevant – 7-3, 2.65 ERA, 4 S, 74.2 IP, 67 H, 19 BB, 82 K, 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 9.9 K/9

MLL: Eric Berger – 2-1, 4.04 ERA, 71.1 IP, 70 H, 36 BB, 87 K, 1.49 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9, 11.0 K/9

CL: Josh Judy – 6-2, 3.12 ERA, 23 S, 52.0 IP, 44 H, 25 BB, 60 K, 1.33 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 10.4 K/9

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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2011 Tony Awards: Offensive Player of the Year

Jesus Aguilar (Photo: Lianna Holub)

Today we continue the IPI’s year end awards with the announcement of the Offensive Player of the Year.  This award goes to the position player in the Indians organization that had the best year.

It should be noted, like with all the awards, that this is 100% based on performance and not on prospect standing. Also, the players eligible for the award had to play in at least two-thirds of their team’s games. For a player who played from the start of the season on a full season team this would be 96 games, for a short season Single-A player this would be 50 games, and for a short season rookie league player this would be 37 games.

Here are the 2011 Tony Awards so far:

Rookie of the Year: Cody Allen (RHP)

Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Bellows (3B)

Biggest Disappointment: Nick Weglarz (OF)

Biggest Breakthrough: Elvis Araujo (LHP)

Reliever of the Year: Chen-Chang Lee (RHP)

Comeback Player of the Year: Beau Mills (1B)

Pitcher of the Year: Jeanmar Gomez (RHP)

This is the final “Tony Award” to be handed out, but later this week I will provide the final award piece which will be my All-Tony team where I list the best players this season position-by-position.

Again, these awards are simply for fun to hand out at the end of the year.  Also, the Cleveland Indians in no way whatsoever had any input in these awards.

Onto the nominees…

Offensive Player of the Year Nominees:

Jesus Aguilar (1B – Lake County/Kinston)

.284 (131-for-462), 70 R, 30 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 46 BB, 126 K, 2 SB, .865 OPS

Aguilar had a big year for the Indians at the plate, especially in the power and production department.  He finished 2^nd in the Indians organization in home runs (23) and was 1^st in RBI (82). Even though he played just 95 game for Low-A Lake County he still finished 7^th in the Midwest League in home runs (19), 16^th in RBI (69), 17^th in doubles (27), 2^nd in slugging percentage (.544), 2^nd in OPS (.915), and was 2^nd in home runs to at bat ratio (1 in 18.4).

Adam Abraham (3B – Kinston)

.252 AVG (115-for-456), 63 R, 31 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 70 BB, 114 K, 5 SB, .792 OPS

Abraham is an unheralded prospect who continued his workman-like approach and had a very good first season in High-A this year. He finished 5^th in the Indians organization in home runs (17) and 3^rd in RBI (72). He also finished 7^th in the Carolina League in games played (131), 4^th in doubles (31), 6^th in home runs (17), 5^th in RBI (72), 8^th in total bases (197), 4^th in walks (70), 6^th in strikeouts (114), 7^th in on-base percentage (.360), 9^th in slugging percentage (.432), and 8^th in OPS (.792).

Tim Fedroff (OF – Akron/Columbus)

.308 AVG (151-for-490), 71 R, 28 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 63 RBI, 62 BB, 74 K, 10 SB, .793 OPS

Fedroff came back with a much more consistent bat this season and hit over .300 for the first time since his pro debut at short season Single-A Mahoning Valley in 2008 (.319). He showed the ability to get on base and be a tablesetter at the top of the lineup. His .308 batting average was the 2^nd best in the entire organization and his .385 on-base percentage was unofficially the best in the organization this year for full season players.

Robel Garcia (2B – Arizona)

.284 AVG (48-for-169), 31 R, 10 2B, 8 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 23 BB, 50 K, 7 SB, .915 OPS

With all of the raw, young talent on the rookie level Arizona roster this year, the one player who probably shined the most was Garcia who actually was not as highly rated coming into this season as some other players. While the numbers are taken with a grain of salt coming from the offensive-oriented Arizona League, he finished 3^rd in the league in triples (8), 6^th in home runs (6), 10^th in total bases (92), 9^th in walks (23), 8^th in slugging percentage (.544), and 13^th in OPS (.915).

Jerad Head (OF – Columbus)

.284 AVG (120-for-422), 67 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 70 RBI, 25 BB, 99 K, 3 SB, .864 OPS

Head is an undrafted free agent signing and will turn 29 years old next month, but he just continues to get better and better with age. He earned himself a promotion to the big leagues and finished the season 1^st in the Indians organization in home runs (24) and 4^th in RBI (70). He finished 3^rd in the International League in home runs (24), 6^th in total bases (222), 2^nd in slugging percentage (.526), 8^th in OPS (.864), and 3^rd in home run per at bat ratio (1 in 17.6).

Beau Mills (1B – Akron/Columbus)

.289 AVG (101-for-349), 50 R, 22 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 32 BB, 59 K, .860 OPS

Mills won the award for Comeback Player of the Year thanks to his strong season which was one of the best offensive performances in the Indians’ system this year. He split the season between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus so he did not rank in any league categories, but he finished 9th in the Indians organization in batting average (.289) and 3rd in home runs (18).

Bryson Myles (OF – Mahoning Valley)

.302 AVG (58-for-192), 36 R, 10 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 24 BB, 32 K, 20 SB, .795 OPS

There were actually four very good performances at short season Single-A Mahoning Valley this year as in addition to Myles others considered for the award were third baseman Jordan Smith, catcher Jake Lowery, and shortstop Tony Wolters.  He finished tied for 4^th in the Indians organization in batting average (.302) and was 5^th in the NY-Penn League in batting average (.302), 7th in on-base percentage (.394) and 8th in stolen bases (20).

Cord Phelps (2B – Columbus)

.294 AVG (111-for-378), 51 R, 25 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 51 BB, 89 K, 3 SB, .868 OPS

Phelps barely made it in for consideration for this award as he played in 97 games for Triple-A Columbus this year. While he disappointed with his play in the big leagues this year he had another very good season for Columbus. He finished 7^th in the Indians organization in batting average (.294) and finished 8^th in the International League in on-base percentage (.376), 11^th in slugging percentage (.492), and 7^th in OPS (.868).

Luigi Rodriguez (OF – Arizona/Lake County)

.304 AVG (69-for-227), 28 R, 10 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 19 BB, 55 K, 18 SB, .779 OPS

Rodriguez did not start playing until short season leagues kicked into action in late June, but he got off to a great start at rookie level Arizona. In 25 games there he hit .408 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and .987 OPS before being quickly promoted to Low-A Lake County where in 34 games he hit .250 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and .630 OPS. He finished 3^rd in the Indians organization in batting average (.304).

Luis Valbuena (INF – Columbus)

.302 AVG (127-for-420), 64 R, 22 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 46 BB, 96 K, 6 SB, .848 OPS

Valbuena is a player that a lot of people gave up on after a dismal 2010 performance in Cleveland (.193 AVG, 2 HR, 24 RBI, .531 OPS), but he came back this season and spent most of the season in Columbus and was one of the key cogs to the offense. He finished 5^th in the Indians organization in batting average (.302) and 2^nd in RBI (75). He was 11^th in the International League in batting average (.302) and 11^th in RBI (75).

And the Tony Award goes to…Jesus Aguilar

It was an interesting year for the Indians in their minor league system as there were few great hitting or pitching performances this year.  There were certainly a lot of good performances at the plate at all levels of the organization, but no standout performances that were of the elite quality (i.e. Carlos Santana in 2009: .290 AVG, 23 HR, 97 RBI, .943 OPS).

Outfielder Jerad Head and infielder Luis Valbuena both had very nice seasons for Triple-A Columbus, and it was great to see the return of first baseman Beau Mills. Players in the lower levels like outfielder Luigi Rodriguez, outfielder Bryson Myles, and infielder Robel Garcia all had good, promising seasons.

But the one player who really stood out from the pack purely from a numbers perspective was 21-year old first base prospect Jesus Aguilar. He came into the season as a relative unknown for many as a prospect. The power was known, but it was uncertain how he would fare at a higher level this season. Well, he more than held his own this year at Low-A Lake County where he dominated the Midwest League before the Indians were forced to move him up to High-A Kinston in order to give him a better challenge.

Aguilar’s power is a given. He looks like a tight end at the plate with his big 6’3” 241 pound frame, and when he swings the bat and barrels up the ball it goes a long way. This has always been the case for him throughout his four year minor league career, but the difference this season is he showed some improved and more consistent bat-to-ball ability this year at Lake County. He is also off to a raging start in the Arizona Fall League, so his prospect standing has jumped significantly.

Aguilar still has a ways to go with his plate discipline, but as long as he continues to put up production and power numbers like he did this season then the Indians can live with the strikeouts. He is now one of the only legit power prospects in the lower levels of the Indians system, and is arguably the best power prospect in the entire system. If he finishes his time up in the Arizona Fall League with a good showing he may even get some consideration as a Top 10 prospect going into next season, if he has not already.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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2011 Tony Awards: Pitcher of the Year

Jeanmar Gomez (Photo: IPI)

Today we continue the IPI’s year end awards with the announcement of the Pitcher of the Year.  This award goes to the starting pitcher in the Indians organization that had the best year from a performance perspective, not from a prospect standing.

Here are the 2011 Tony Awards so far:

Rookie of the Year: Cody Allen (RHP)

Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Bellows (3B)

Biggest Disappointment: Nick Weglarz (OF)

Biggest Breakthrough: Elvis Araujo (LHP)

Reliever of the Year: Chen-Chang Lee (RHP)

Comeback Player of the Year: Beau Mills (1B)

Again, these awards are simply for fun to hand out at the end of the year.  Also, the Cleveland Indians in no way whatsoever had any input in these awards.

Onto the nominees…

Pitcher of the Year Nominees:

Scott Barnes (LHP – Columbus)

8-4, 3.45 ERA, 18 GS, 99.0 IP, 85 H, 12 HR, 36 BB, 107 K, .230 BAA

Barnes was having an outstanding season before a knee injury sidelined him on July 10^th and he missed the rest of the season. He was on quite a roll at the time as after struggling in his first exposure to Triple-A he made a quick adjustment and in his last ten starts went 5-3 with a 2.58 ERA (59.1 IP, 49 H, 5 HR, 19 BB, 63 K). He showed an ability to get his fastball by hitters and is definitely a Major League starting pitching option for the Indians in the near future.

Austin Adams (RHP – Akron)

11-10, 3.77 ERA, 26 GS, 136.0 IP, 147 H, 6 HR, 63 BB, 131 K, .280 BAA

This was Adams’ first season as a full fledged starter as he spent all of 2010 in a piggyback role and he made a lot of strides. He is still raw and learning how to pitch, but the power of his mid-to-upper 90s fastball and his good curveball make him an exciting pitching prospect for the Indians. He finished 2^nd in the organization in wins (11) and 2^nd in strikeouts (131). He also finished 2^nd in the Eastern League in wins (11), 11^th in ERA (3.77), 12^th in innings pitched (136.0), 6^th in strikeouts (131), and 3^rd in walks allowed (63).

Elvis Araujo (LHP – Arizona/Mahoning Valley)

9-1, 3.36 ERA, 15 GS, 69.2 IP, 65 H, 2 HR, 25 BB, 63 K, .245 BAA

Araujo took home the honors this year for the Biggest Breakthrough, which was well deserved after the year he had. He finished 7^th in the Indians organization in ERA (3.36) and also ranked 1^st in the Arizona League in wins (9), 3rd in ERA (2.86), 9th in games started (11), 4th in innings pitched (63.0), 3rd in strikeouts (58), 3rd in WHIP (1.14), 1^st in batting average against (.228), 5^th among starters for lowest walks per nine innings (2.5), and 2^nd among starters for fewest baserunners per nine innings (10.3).

Joseph Colon (RHP – Mahoning Valley/Lake County)

4-4, 3.51 ERA, 16 GS, 77.0 IP, 69 H, 3 HR, 31 BB, 61 K, .239 BAA

Colon had a very good return to the mound this season after missing all of the 2010 season because of a right elbow sprain. He pitched all season at short season Single-A Mahoning Valley before getting a call up to Low-A Lake County for his final appearance of the year (6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R/ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 K) and is likely where he will open the 2012 season. He finished 9^th in the Indians organization in ERA (3.51).

Paolo Espino (RHP – Akron/Columbus)

8-1, 2.77 ERA, 34 G (10 GS), 120.1 IP, 101 H, 11 HR, 25 BB, 119 K

Espino is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Indians organization as he just “gets no respect”. All he has done the past few years is perform, but his opportunities have been limited because other pitchers with higher value continue to pass him over. He was lights out for most of the last four months of the season, and in his final 10 games at Triple-A Columbus went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA (37.1 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 39 K). He finished 4^th in the Indians organization in ERA (2.77).

Jeanmar Gomez (RHP – Columbus)

10-7, 2.54 ERA, 22 GS, 141.2 IP, 128 H, 8 HR, 49 BB, 110 K, .244 BAA

Gomez returned to Triple-A Columbus to start the season and made a few spot starts over the course of the year in Cleveland before he was called up for good on August 30th. He finished 3^rd in the Indians organization in ERA (2.54) and 3^rd in wins (10). He finished 1^st in the International League in ERA (2.55), 5^th in wins (10), tied for 3^rd in complete games (2), 8^th in WHIP (1.25), and 5^th among starters for lowest batting average against (.242).

David Huff (LHP – Columbus)

9-3, 3.87 ERA, 18 GS, 107.0 IP, 111 H, 10 HR, 30 BB, 66 K, .264 BAA

Huff is 27 years old and lost his rookie status back in 2009, so he is no longer a prospect per se, but he still pitched a majority of the season at Triple-A Columbus so is eligible for the award. After a tough 2010 season he bounced back this season and had a good year in Columbus and a solid showing in Cleveland where in 11 starts there he went 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA (50.2 IP, 55 H, 6 HR, 17 BB, 36 K).

Danny Jimenez (LHP – Mahoning Valley)

4-3, 2.39 ERA, 17 G (12 GS), 71.2 IP, 66 H, 1 HR, 24 BB, 50 K, .241 BAA

Jimenez has made the slow progression through the Indians system where he pitched at rookie level Arizona for two years in 2009 and 2010 before finally getting an opportunity at short season Single-A Mahoning Valley this year. He did not disappoint pitching at a higher level this year and definitely raised his stock. He finished 2^nd in the Indians organization in ERA (2.39). He was also 5^th in the NY-Penn League in ERA (2.39) and 11^th in innings pitched (71.2).

Zach McAllister (RHP – Columbus)

12-3, 3.32 ERA, 25 GS, 154.2 IP, 155 H, 11 HR, 31 BB, 128 K, .261 BAA

After a disappointing 2010 campaign last season in Triple-A (9-12, 5.29 ERA, 27 GS) McAllister had a very good second go around this year. He finished 5^th in the Indians organization in ERA (3.32), 1^st in wins (12), and 4^th in strikeouts (128). He also finished 7^th in the International League in ERA (3.32), 3^rd in wins (12), 1^st in complete games (3), 4^th in innings pitched (154.2), 2^nd among starters in lowest walks per nine innings (1.8), and 4^th for fewest baserunners per nine innings (11.2).

T.J. McFarland (LHP – Akron)

9-10, 3.74 ERA, 27 GS, 149.1 IP, 149 H, 11 HR, 51 BB, 115 K, .259 BAA

McFarland started the year at High-A Kinston but was quickly promoted to Double-A Akron and pitched well in his first extended exposure at one of the highest levels in the minors. He established himself as a good, young starting pitching prospect for the Indians and likely will return to Akron to open 2012. He finished 10^th in the Indians organization in ERA (3.74). He also finished 2^nd in the Eastern League in complete games (2) and 11^th in innings pitched (137.1).

Matt Packer (LHP – Akron)

9-12, 4.31 ERA, 27 GS, 169.1 IP, 175 H, 16 HR, 33 BB, 129 K, .269 BAA

Don’t let that high ERA fool you as it is not truly indicative of how well Packer pitched this season. He finished the season with a flurry going 8.0 innings or more in six of his last ten starts and in 11 starts after the All Star break went 6-4 with a 2.78 ERA. He finished 2^nd in the Eastern League in games started (27), 1^st in innings pitched (169.1), 1^st in total batters faced (702), 2^nd in losses (12), 7^th in strikeouts (129), 9^th in WHIP (1.23), and 2^nd in lowest walks per nine innings (1.8). He also ranked 3^rd in the Indians organization in strikeouts (129).

Mike Rayl (LHP – Lake County/Kinston)

6-8, 3.42 ERA, 25 GS, 123.2 IP, 114 H, 9 HR, 26 BB, 121 K, .243 BAA

Rayl was up for the Biggest Breakout award as well as he had a very good first full season for the Indians. He split his time between Low-A Lake County where in 17 starts he went 5-5 with a 2.83 ERA (82.2 IP, 66 H, 3 HR, 13 BB, 84 K) and High-A Kinston where in 8 starts he went 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA (41.0 IP, 48 H, 6 HR, 13 BB, 37 K). He pitched well in both places and his 3.42 ERA was 8^th best in the Indians organization.

And the Tony Award goes to…Jeanmar Gomez

The Indians did not have a true standout pitching performance from a starter this year. Had lefty Drew Pomeranz finished the year in the organization he would have been the clear runaway winner for the award as his performance was outstanding. There were several good performances by other pitchers, but nothing to Pomeranz’s level so it made it tough to hand out this award.

In the end it was hard to overlook the year that Triple-A Columbus right-handed pitcher Jeanmar Gomez had. Sure, he was no longer a rookie coming into this season thanks to the 11 starts and 57.2 innings he pitched at the big league level in 2011, but he is still just 23-years old and is still growing as a pitcher. To put it in greater context he will not turn 24-years old until next season but already has two Triple-A and Major League seasons of experience under his belt.

Gomez pitched very well all season at Columbus and was one of the best pitchers in the International League. When he was called up to Cleveland on August 30^th he got on a roll where in five starts after his recall he went 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA (30.0 IP, 29 H, 8 BB, 15 K), though he struggled in his final start of the season against the hot-hitting Tigers on September 27^th as he allowed 10 hits, 8 runs, 2 walks and had 5 strikeouts over four innings.

Gomez showed a good fastball that he cuts and sinks and had better command of it this year. His slider and changeup both showed improvement as well. It is now all about just getting him consistent from start to start and becoming more aggressive in the strike zone. He has Major League stuff, just the question is how well it will translate every five days over the course of a 162-game season in the big leagues.

I myself have never been a huge fan of Gomez and what he could do at the big league level. I have always felt he is a big league starting pitcher, but that it would be more as a back of the rotation or depth starter.  But after his season I may have to reconsider my thinking on that as he now looks like he has the potential to be a solid middle of the rotation starter in the big leagues.  Unless the Indians add a veteran starting pitcher to the mix he will go into spring training as the early favorite to make the 2012 opening day starting rotation as the fifth starter.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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2011 Tony Awards: Comeback Player of the Year

Beau Mills (Photo: Lianna Holub)

Today we continue the IPI’s year end awards with the announcement of the Comeback Player of the Year.  This award goes to the player who came back from a rough 2010 season – be it due to injury or performance – and put up a very good 2011 season.

Here are the 2011 Tony Awards so far:

Rookie of the Year: Cody Allen (RHP)

Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Bellows (3B)

Biggest Disappointment: Nick Weglarz (OF)

Biggest Breakthrough: Elvis Araujo (LHP)

Reliever of the Year: Chen-Chang Lee (RHP)

Again, these awards are simply for fun to hand out at the end of the year.  Also, the Cleveland Indians in no way whatsoever had any input in these awards.

Onto the nominees…

Comeback Player of the Year Nominees:

Tim Fedroff (OF – Akron/Columbus)

.308 AVG (151-for-490), 71 R, 28 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 63 RBI, 62 BB, 74 K, 10 SB, .793 OPS

After a nice pro debut at short season Single-A Mahoning Valley in 2008 (.319 AVG, .789 OPS) and a good first full season at High-A Kinston in 2009 (.278 AVG, .764 OPS), Fedroff took a step back last year at Double-A Akron (.274 AVG, .715 OPS).  He came back this season and just dominated at Akron where in 70 games he hit .338 with 2 HR, 35 RBI and .846 OPS before the Indians promoted him to Triple-A Columbus to finish the season. His .308 batting average was the 2^nd best in the entire organization only to rookie level Arizona infielder Jose Ramirez (.325).

Beau Mills (1B – Akron/Columbus)

.289 AVG (101-for-349), 50 R, 22 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 32 BB, 59 K, .860 OPS

Mills had his best season since his MVP year at High-A Kinston in 2008 when he hit .293 with 21 HR, 90 RBI, and .880 OPS. What followed after that year were two substandard seasons at Double-A Akron in which he hit .267 with 14 HR, 83 RBI, and .724 OPS in 2009 and then .241 with 10 HR, 72 RBI and .689 OPS in 2010. His performance those two years bottomed out his prospect standing in the organization.  He came back this season and finished 9^th in the organization in batting average (.289) and 3^rd in home runs (18).

Nick Hagadone (LHP – Akron/Columbus)

6-4, 2.79 ERA, 46 G, 71.0 IP, 56 H, 5 HR, 22 BB, 77 K, .212 BAA

Hagadone came back from a rocky 2010 season where he went 3-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 29 games (85.2 IP, 72 H, 7 HR, 63 BB, 89 K). The ERA and hit-rate were actually very good last season, but it was the 6.6 BB/9 rate that was most concerning and disappointing. Command is usually always the last thing that returns to a pitcher after they have Tommy John surgery, and that looks like it was the case here again as he came back this season and more than cut that walk rate in half to 2.8 BB/9. More impressively, he maintained that walk rate even with a first time promotion to Triple-A Columbus.

Adam Miller (RHP – Kinston/Akron)

1-5, 5.93 ERA, 31 G, 44.0 IP, 51 H, 2 HR, 21 BB, 39 K, .298 BAA

If this award were not given for performance reasons and instead were given based on guts, determination and perseverance, then Miller would win this award hands down. After not pitching all of 2009 and 2010 because of a chronic middle finger issue that resulted in several surgeries, many thought he would never pitch again. But he stuck with it and found his way back to a mound last fall in Instructional League and was able to go out and pitch in 31 games this season without one single setback. The overall numbers were not very good, but a lot of that is from a handful of blow ups, rust, and him trying to find himself again as a pitcher. His return this season was truly one of the best moments of the year.

Kyle Landis (RHP – Lake County/Kinston/Akron)

10-2, 2.54 ERA, 42 G, 63.2 IP, 52 H, 6 HR, 13 BB, 74 K, .226 BAA

Landis is another pitcher who made a miraculous return this season from a career threatening injury. He missed all of last season with a scary nerve issue in his bicep-shoulder area that caused numbness and weakness, but he was able to rehab and eventually returned to the mound in late April at Low-A Lake County. He struggled some at Double-A Akron (1-0, 4.38 ERA, 9 G) before settling in the rest of the season at High-A Kinston (9-2, 2.15 ERA, 32 G). He also finished 4^th in the entire Indians organization in wins (10), which is amazing for a reliever.

And the Tony Award goes to….Beau Mills

Compared to previous years the Indians did not have as many players have big bounce back seasons. Whether or not this is a good or bad thing depends on your outlook of things, but I think most people are in agreement that Mills’ resurgence this season was great to see and no doubt was the best comeback in the system.

While a lot of people will say that Mills just benefitted this season because of a third year in Double-A, that is untrue as he moved up to Triple-A for the first time in his career and more than held his own hitting .269 with 7 HR, 18 RBI and .822 OPS in 35 games. He also hit .308 with 0 HR, 4 RBI and .842 OPS in 7 playoff games.

Mills missed the first two months of the season with an Achilles injury but the time away really seemed to help him get more focused. Not that he lacked focus before, but the past two years his entire approach at the plate lacked much consistency. When he returned this season he looked like the Beau Mills of old. In fact, he may be better than the Mills of old.

First off, the power returned this season. After mashing 58 extra base hits including 21 homers in 2008 at High-A Kinston, his extra bat hit production dipped significantly the last two seasons where he had just 48 extra base hits in 2009 at Akron and 37 extra base hits in 2010 at Akron. This year he had 41 extra base hits, though he did that in just 391 plate appearances covering 96 games because he missed the first two months of the season with the Achilles injury. He averaged 530 plate appearances from 2008-2010, so if he would have had that many plate appearances this season he would have projected out to 56 extra base hits this year. In fact, more easily stated, his .513 slugging percentage this year was a career best and much better than the .417 slugging percentage in 2009 and .377 slugging percentage in 2010.

Secondly, Mills showed his best plate discipline to date during his time with the Indians. Back in 2008 in his MVP season at Kinston he was striking out once every 4.6 at bats and walking once every 8.9 at bats, but since then he has worked to get better at striking out less and walking more. Since 2008 his strikeout rate has decreased each year as he had struck out once every 5.4 at bats in 2009, once every 6.0 at bats in 2010, and once every 6.6 at bats this season.  The walk rate has also gotten better and after it nosedived in 2009 where he walked once every 16.6 at bats he has been around once every ten at bats the last two seasons.

The discipline changes showed last year but the numbers were not there, but this season it all seemed to come together for Mills. With everything coming together the power and performance also returned. With the nice bounce back season he is now back in the discussion as a potential big league option at first base for the Indians, potentially sometime next year. He may never be an every day player in the big leagues or reach the potential many thought he could when he was a first round pick in 2007, but it now looks that his dreams of making the big leagues look very real.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

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