The 411 On The Branyan Trade

It's been a little over 24 hours since the Indians traded first baseman Russell Branyan to the Seattle Mariners for two prospects in outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and infielder Juan Diaz. Here are some quick thoughts on the trade and info on the two players obtained, and I may have a follow up piece on this soon once I talk to more people today and tomorrow about the deal.

- I have not yet talked to the Indians about the deal itself (hope to later today), but I have to say from what I have heard from several industry sources around the league I have talked to in the past 24 hours that Seattle surprised everyone with this deal. The general feeling among team executives was that "Seattle would be sellers and not buyers", and the other surprise was that the Indians were actually able to trade off Branyan and "receive anything of value in return".

- The last time Seattle did something like this in picking up an Indians first baseman in a move to compete in the playoff race was in 2006 when the Indians traded their "Benuardo" platoon of Ben Broussard and Eddie Perez to them a few weeks apart.  The two deals netted them outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, so the Indians and their fans can only hope things work out that well again.

- The Branyan signing in February was odd at the time, but I have to say in hindsight the Indians made the right move by signing him. First baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta struggled the first two months and first baseman/outfielder Jordan Brown suffered a knee injury in spring training, so Branyan ended up a solid stop gap.  We also know how his addition helped manipulate some service clock issues, but really, it ended up a solid move and decision, one several people questioned at the time, and I have to give credit where it is due in this case. On top of that, we received two players in the deal that are interesting. They are not huge prospects by any means, but could be solid complimentary pieces to the big league team soon.  We often use hindsight to show how the Indians were wrong on moves, well it is only fair to use hindsight to say when they were right.

- Jason Churchill and I have talked a little since the trade. Those that don't know Jason, he runs the ProspectInsider.com site on the Mariners and is also a contributor on ESPN Insider. He too felt the trade was a little odd, though noted that he thinks it was a small price to pay to see if they can get back in the race and that if they can't then they will likely deal Branyan again before the deadline.  Here is his take on the deal (read the comments as well).

- My quick thoughts on the deal without any explanation from the Indians yet is this is a good move.  I like the Diaz pickup as we need some promising upside position players in the lower levels of the system.  I am not as high on the Carrera pickup, not because I dislike him (I like him), but because he seems redundant with the likes of Michael Brantley and Jose Constanza in Triple-A Columbus already.  My rash first impression is Carerra is a prospect who fits in somewhere between Brantley and Constanza, one where they think his ceiling is Brantley (Major League starter in center field) and that his floor is Constanza (4th outfielder).  It will be interesting to see how he fits into things, but I have to wonder if his pickup actually affects that of Trevor Crowe who has not impressed at all with his play defensively in center field and been inconsistent offensively.

The Prospects

Here are two detailed reports that Churchill provided to me on the two players received in the deal, outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and infielder Juan Diaz. He gave permission to re-port these in full, though I would welcome you to follow his stuff at ESPN Insider and also on his site at ProspectInsider.com:

Ezequiel Carrera, CF -- No. 20 in M's farm system pre-season

Carrera, a left-handed hitter, runs well, employs above-average strike zone judgment and makes consistent contact, even versus to-end pitching. He does need to improve his pitch recognition like many minor leaguers, but he covers the plate and gets hits to all fields.

The speed, maybe as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, helps him cover ground in center, and has enough arm strength to profile there. His instincts and routes grade out OK, but he relies on the foot speed to correct mistakes on reads, or he’d rank as many as 5-8 spots higher here.

But his biggest weakness is power at the plate, where Carrera struggles for gap power, though he makes up for some of that with terrific hand-eye coordination and understands his own swing very well. He knows there’s no power and swings for ground balls and low line drives, and maintains his swing from game-to-game with many streaks of poor mechanics.

The 22-year-old handles the bat well and holds his own versus left-handed pitching. His splits against RHPs in 2009 were absurdly positive -- .362/.467/.464 with 16 of his 18 extra-base hits on the year, suggesting that perhaps he could hit just enough to warrant platoon at-bats at the big-league level.

Carrera ranks this low based on the doubts shared by scouts that he can hit the gaps enough to warrant even semi-regular playing time. While the now-traded Tyson Gillies was the better prospect, the Mariners still have an extra outfielder in the system that can serve in a pinch-runner and defensive replacement role within the next two years.

Carrera is slated for Triple-A Tacoma where I fully expect him continue putting up impressive on-base percentages, but unless the swing is revamped, he’ll remain in the second half of the Top 30 at very best, and isn’t a player I’d trade one of the Top 20 to obtain right now.

His ability to make contact and draw walks will dissipate some in the majors since pitchers will not only have better stuff and command, but they’ll know not to worry about Carrera doing real damage and will instead pound the zone and make him earn his way on base.

Toolbox
(Tool Present-Future)
On-Base Skills: 50-60
Hitting for Power: 35-40
Speed/Baserunning: 65-65
Defensive Range: 55-55
Arm strength: 45-45

Peak Performance Projection
AVG--OBP--HR--SB--SLG--OPS
.280--.340--5--40--.390--.730

Juan Diaz, SS -- Ranked No. 25 in M's system pre-season

Diaz is a unique athlete; he’s wiry strong, though not strong like a power bat. He stands a legitimate 6-foot-3 and moves his feet well defensively, but is merely a 55 runner and lacks quick-twitch actions – but he can play shortstop thanks to the feet, a good, accurate arm and soft hands.

He swing is low line-drive inducing and tends result in too many ground balls considering he’s not likely to get many infield hits, and may have problems hitting for enough average in the upper levels. Diaz possesses average bat speed and can get carried away trying to pull the ball, and then overcompensate in an attempt to hit the ball the other way, as if he’s decided what he’s going to do before he hits the batter’s box.

He’s still just 21 and has time to continue his development – a focus on maintaining contact rates while refining his approach toward being more patient would be wise – forget about hitting for home-run power.

The swing is simple and smooth from both sides of the plate, but when he’s caught in-between comfortable counts he has been known to load up deeper, which tends to waste hittable pitches, helping the pitcher come back and get him out.

Diaz may head back to High Desert where he spent 2009, but not because he hasn’t earned a shot at West Tennessee. With Triunfel, Ackley and Liddi pegged for the Southern League, Diaz’s playing time may be greatly diminished in Double-A, which would stunt his growth.
If he can develop the hit tool some – particularly from the left side, though he’s capable as a right-handed hitter, too -- Diaz profiles as a reserve middle infielder with a little bit of offensive upside.

Toolbox
(Tool Present-Future)
On-Base Skills: 40-45
Hitting for Power: 40-45
Speed/Baserunning: 55-55
Defensive Range: 55-55
Arm strength: 55-55

Peak Performance Projection
AVG--OBP--HR--SB--SLG--OPS
.270--.330--10--8--.410--.740

MLB ETA: 2012
MLB Comps: Cristian Guzman, Alex Cora

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Branyan Traded To Seattle

The Cleveland Indians announced they have acquired outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and shortstop Juan Diaz from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for infielder Russell Branyan and cash or a player to be named later.

Carrera, 22, has spent the entire 2010 season to date at AAA Tacoma as he has hit .268 (57-213) with 24 runs scored, 6 doubles, 2 triples and 18 RBI in 64 games. He has stolen 9 bases in 14 attempts this season but is currently on the AAA disabled list with a left hip pointer. Before being injured, Carrera was hitting .311 (19-61) with 6 runs scored, 3 doubles and 6 RBI in 18 games during the month of June. Prior to the start of the 2010 season, Carrera was ranked as the 15th best prospect in the Mariners organization by Baseball America.

Last year, the left-handed hitting outfielder won the Southern League Batting title as he hit .337 (111-329) with 68 runs scored, 12 doubles, 4 triples, 2HR and 38RBI in 91 games at AA West Tennessee while being named to both the Southern League All-Star and also the Topps Double-A All-Star team. Carrera also posted a .441 on-base percentage which led the Southern League and was 3rd best in all of minor league baseball. The Venezuelan native was named the best defensive outfielder in the Florida State League in 2008 by Baseball America. Carrera was originally signed by the Mets as a non-drafted free agent in 2005 and will report to AAA Columbus in the coming days.

Diaz, 21, a 6-4, 170-pound switch hitting shortstop, has spent the entire 2010 season to date at High Desert of the California League batting .295 (75-254) with 39 runs scored, 8 doubles, 3 triples, 7HR and 41RBI in 70 games. He has also stolen 8 bases in 10 attempts and has an OPS of .779 (.345 on-base % & .433 slg. %).

Last year, Diaz batted .311 (101-325) with 55 runs scored, 22 doubles, 5 triples, 4HR and 29RBI in 84 games at High Desert as he was named to the California League All-Star Team. The Dominican Republic native was on the disabled list from June 25-August 4th with a fractured hamate in the left hand however came back to finish the season and played for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League. He was originally signed as a non-drafted free agent by Seattle in 2006 and will report to Kinston in the coming days.

Branyan was signed by the Indians on February 24th and hit .263 (45-171) with 24 runs scored, 9 doubles, 10HR and 24RBI in 52 games for Cleveland this year.

The Indians will make a roster move prior to tomorrow’s game with the Cincinnati Reds to fill Branyan’s spot on the Major League 25-man roster.

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Last Minute Roster Updates

Here are some last minute roster notes before the start of opening night in a few hours:

- Left-hander Erik Berger is opening the season on the Double-A Akron disabled list for an unknown injury at this time. It may just be a temporary thing and more to keep him inactive since the roster these next two weeks at Akron and Triple-A Columbus will likely be in constant flux. If I hear anything about an injury I will surely pass it along. For now left-hander Ryan Edell has replaced him in the rotation.

- Catcher Wyatt Toregas has cleared waivers and been assigned to Double-A Akron. He is currently set to be the everyday catcher at Akron, though his situation is still somewhat clouded as he could still be traded.

- Infielder Anderson Hernandez cleared waivers and was outrighted to Columbus. He takes the spot of infielder Luis Rodriguez who was reassigned to Mahoning Valley (inactive).

- Right-handed reliever Josh Judy, first baseman/outfielder Jordan Brown, infielder Niuman Romero, and infielder/outfielder Jerad Head are all on the 7-day disabled list to open the season.

- Right-handed pitcher Hector Ambriz and first baseman Russell Branyan are in Columbus on a rehab assignment.

- Right-hander Vinnie Pestano is active and will be the Akron closer.

- Catcher Dwight Childs is opening the season at High-A Kinston on the 7-day disabled list.

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Goodyear Notebook: 3/27

While I am no longer in Arizona, here is a special notebook edition talking about some of the recent developments in big league and minor league camp for the Indians.

Talbot Wins Rotation Spot

It comes as no surprise that right-hander Mitch Talbot has officially won a spot in the opening day rotation.  Going into spring training he was a heavy favorite to win one of the two open rotation spots in a competition that started out with four candidates among himself and lefties Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, and Aaron Laffey.  Barring injury or a complete disaster of a showing in spring training Talbot was all but assured a spot, and he did not disappoint or leave any room for questioning the decision as he has put together a very nice spring so far where in four starts he is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and in 11.1 innings has allowed 8 hits, 1 walk and has 7 strikeouts, and also had an impressive 6 inning and 1 run showing in a minor league game earlier this week.

Talbot has been very sharp, and Indians officials have been very pleased with what they have seen out of him.  They caught a lot of flack for the Kelly Shoppach trade, and while it is only spring training and there is a long way to go it appears that they may have indeed gotten something of value in return for Shoppach, contrary to what a lot of fans may have realized back in December.

Laffey To The Pen

Another non-surprise and no-brainer to me was the announcement yesterday that left-hander Aaron Laffey has won a spot on the big league pitching staff, but that it would be in the bullpen and not in the starting rotation.  I personally do not have a problem with putting him in the bullpen as I actually prefer him there at least in the short term.  Aside from Jeremy Sowers he arguably has the least upside of any of the starters in camp being considered for the last two rotation spots, but what he may have over anyone else is he is the most athletic, versatile, and durable pitcher among the starters to handle long relief and spot starting when needed.

In year's past when the Indians had C.C. Sabathia, a healthy Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee, and others anchoring the rotation, a long man was unnecessary, but with the questions surrounding this starting staff and the volatility we should expect in their performance from night to night having a reliable long man is a huge need if you ask me.  Laffey should get more than enough work in as the long man without hindering his ability to pitch five innings if needed as a spot starter or to go back into the rotation if needed.  If by chance he is not getting work then it means that the starting staff is pitching very well, so really there is no downside to this move.

Huff vs. Carrasco

The big surprise yesterday was that left-hander David Huff was not named to the opening day rotation yet, and that right-hander Carlos Carrasco is very much in the running for the last spot.  It was originally thought that Carrasco would simply just open the season at Triple-A Columbus and come up later in the season, but he has had a very strong showing in camp where in three starts he is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and in 12.0 innings has allowed 8 hits, 3 walks and has 8 strikeouts and the Indians think he may not need to go to Columbus after all.

In comparison, Huff has had a so-so camp where in five starts he is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and in 16.1 innings has allowed 22 hits, 5 walks, has 8 strikeouts and probably most notably has given up 3 home runs while Carrasco has not given up any, so clearly Carrasco has had a much better camp.  If they are making this decision clearly on their performance this spring, Carrasco should get the nod.  It wouldn't be that much of an upset as Carrasco has always been viewed a better prospect than Huff, so this is not like some unknown coming out of nowhere and stealing a job to which I would not be happy myself with the decision.  If they want more experience and diversity in the rotation, then they probably will go with Huff as he pitched two thirds of the season last year in Cleveland and pitched better as the season went along, plus he would provide a different look to the rotation as a left-hander whereas Carrasco would make it an all right-handed one.

People will get caught up in Huff's 11 wins last year which were nice, but wins are one of the least important stats when evaluating pitchers, at least for the front offices for every major league team.  His stat line was pretty forgettable last year as he put up a 5.61 ERA, which was saved from being in the high 6's or low 7's after a tremendous month of September (3-1, 2.00 ERA).  In addition to that batter's hit .301 with an .833 OPS off him, and he had a 1.56 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, and a 2.9 BB/9.  These are the stats front office personnel look at (along with a lot of other complex data) and aside from the BB/9 number his overall stat line was not very good last year.  In fairness, Carrasco was an abomination in his call to Cleveland last September where in five starts he went 0-4 with an 8.87 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and hitters hit .400 with a 1.125 OPS against him in his very small sample size of 22.1 innings.  So, the numbers for each pitcher from last year can be thrown out of the conversation as they were both not very good.  This decision will be based solely on whether they want to go with the higher upside pitcher in Carrasco right now who has also had the better spring, or if they want to go with the more experienced pitcher in Huff who should eventually settle into the middle of the rotation for a long time and also gives the rotation a different look.

Two Needed For Bullpen

With Laffey being announced as a member of the bullpen, five of the seven spots have been filled.  It is possible that with Laffey in the bullpen to give it length that they may go with a six man pen and add an extra position player instead, though that appears unlikely.  In any case, the five guys locked into the opening day bullpen are left-handers Laffey, Rafael Perez, and Tony Sipp and right-handers Joe Smith and Chris Perez.  Only four bullpen pitchers remain in camp who are battling for the final two spots in the pen, and no surprise they are all right-handers:  Jensen Lewis, Saul Rivera, Jamey Wright, and Hector Ambriz.

Wright has unofficially locked up one of the two spots, so the last spot will come down to Lewis, Rivera and Ambriz.  At this point Ambriz has no shot to make the team as he will open the season on the disabled list or be offered back to the Diamondbacks because of Rule 5 stipulations.  So the decision lies between Lewis and Rivera.  They could really go either way here since Lewis has an option left and Rivera is only signed to a minor league deal so neither will be lost on waivers, but I am not sure I see the Indians adding two minor league contract guys in Wright and Rivera to the roster.  For that reason I think Lewis opens in the bullpen in Cleveland and Rivera in the bullpen at Triple-A Columbus provided he accepts the assignment or does not have an opt out clause like Austin Kearns does.

Lefties Have Rights

It man appear somewhat odd that the Indians will have three lefties in the bullpen, but one thing to remember is the starting rotation will be right-handed heavy or all right-handers if Carlos Carrasco wins the final spot.  So with that in mind, having the long man be a left-hander is a good idea since the lineup would have been geared up for a right-hander and managers are unlikely to make any matchup changes with their lineup in the 4th-6th innings of a ballgame.

Still No Branyan

It appears we are getting closer to first baseman Russell Branyan officially being placed on the disabled list to start the 2010 season.  While the Indians logic with the signing makes a lot of sense from a business standpoint in regard to managing service time and it also added a veteran option at a position of need, I have to say that so far this decision has blown up in their face.

The pickings were slim, but you have to wonder if a better option could have been had to fill the role Branyan was expected to fill.  He still may fill it eventually, but so far it has been a disaster and left a lot of fans once again questioning GM Mark Shapiro's sanity with picking up these kind of bargain bin guys seemingly every year.  He started going to the well back in 2004 when he got Bob Howry for cheap off the scrap heap, or to an extent Casey Blake in 2003, but while he has gone back to that well time and time again in every offseason it appears that well has dried up as just about every bargain bin signing for a veteran has not worked out since.

The Branyan Effect

With Branyan expected to open the season on the disabled list, it appears the lineup may go back to what it was originally expected to be before they signed him, which is to have Matt LaPorta get the majority of time at first base and Michael Brantley to get the majority of time as the left fielder.  This is definitely the case for LaPorta, who has only played first base this spring anyway; however, Brantley may still not be out of the woods yet.  There is still a lot of value from a business sense to have him open the season for at least six weeks at Triple-A Columbus in order to align his service time, which the Indians will surely consider.  But the reason they considered that option is they wanted a for sure option in left field to play everyday in order to do that, which LaPorta afforded them when he was moved to left field after the Branyan signing.  So with LaPorta back at first base - even on a short term basis as Branyan may only be out a month - the Indians may prefer Brantley at the outset of the season as the everyday left fielder again.

The other option is to just put Trevor Crowe and Austin Kearns on the roster as the third and fourth outfielder and use them in a platoon, which very well might happen.  Kearns and Crowe have been battling for the fourth outfielder spot and have both had solid camps, plus Crowe is a switch-hitter with speed while Kearns is a right-handed hitter in a left-handed heavy hitting outfield and lineup so there is value there in keeping both.  One thing to note is Kearns has an opt out clause in his contract where if he is not on the Indians big league roster at the end of spring training he can leave and sign with another team.

Valbuena Correction

This is not necessarily a correction as it is just more of an explanation, but after I noted last week that "if" Mark Grudzielanek came on strong at the end of camp that he "may" open the season as the starting second baseman, I got several e-mails that centered around this move as if I had said it was already done and wondered how the front office could be out of their minds.  Again, it was a long-shot and at this point likely won't happen at all now.  Valbuena has not had a good camp, and while Grudzielanek has been a little better, I don't think he has shown enough to make such a drastic move.  I'm wondering if he even sticks in the organization after spring training as there appears to be no spot for him at Triple-A Columbus, though we will see.  But anyway, the original point of the comment from last week was that had Grudzielanek came on strong it could have changed things at second base.

Minor League Injury Updates

Left-hander Scott Lewis is back in action in minor league camp and is progressing well as he recovers from the left elbow injury which wiped out almost his entire 2009 season.  He is ramping up his innings and pitch count and is expected to open the season in the starting rotation at Triple-A Columbus. ... Left-hander Elvis Araujo is in camp, but is not throwing.  He was sidelined last year with a left elbow injury and is still working his way back.  There is no set timetable on when he will start his throwing program at the moment, but the Indians are hopeful he can pitch in the summer for their rookie level team in Arizona by late June or early July. ... Right-hander Joey Mahalic missed a lot of time last year with an arm injury, but he is back and supposedly 100% this spring.  He is working his pitch count up this spring and is expected to make a full season team, possibly as a starter at High-A Kinston.

MLB Crackdown

Over the past few weeks the Indians have had three players from their Dominican Summer League team suspended for PEDs, which they subsequently released at no cost to the team (no signing bonus was paid).  These players had all been signed in the last two to three months in the Dominican Republic, and none of the players released were anyone of significance.  The steroids and PEDs problem is rampant in Latin America, and MLB is cracking down on it with tougher testing.  The Indians are also going to soon begin their own testing program, which while it will be costly for them to do it will pay off in the long run to where they don't lose out on money paid out to some of these players who fail drug tests or identity checks.  They were burned with the Jose Ozoria (Wally Bryan) situation last year and are out over $500,000 for the signing bonus paid to him which they cannot recoup.

New Latin Digs

The Indians are set to open their new complex in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, literally a few blocks from their old complex.  The new site will open on May 1st as their Latin players get ready to open the Dominican Summer League which starts up at the end of May.  The Indians previously shared their Dominican Republic facility with the Colorado Rockies, but the new one will be their own with two full sized fields and lots of space and amenities to provide better accommodations for their Latin players who live there.

Follow Tony Lastoria on Twitter @tlastoria

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Managing Service Time Vital For Indians And Other Teams

With the Indians making the announcement this week that with the signing of Russell Branyan he would become the everyday first baseman, it came as a surprise to many. As a result, it has sent a shockwave which is going to be felt by either first baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta or outfielder Michael Brantley where one opens the season at Triple-A Columbus.

Now, things can always change as spring training is long and injuries crop up. There is no guarantee that Branyan, LaPorta, and Travis Hafner will be healthy by the end of spring training, and injuries could occur to Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo, so it is very possible that if any of these players are sidelined that both LaPorta and Brantley would not be in danger of going back to Columbus.

But, barring injury, it looks to be absolutely certain that Brantley will be the one to go back to Columbus and not LaPorta. LaPorta is 25 years old and already has more major league experience, plus adds a much needed right-handed bat to a left-handed laden lineup. But most importantly, LaPorta's service clock is pretty much well aligned where there would be really no advantage to sending him to Columbus for a month or two to start the season. Currently, LaPorta has 72 days of major league service time, so unless the Indians would be sending him to Columbus for almost half the season, there is no advantage to sending him there to extend their control over him another year.

This is not the case with Brantley as he has 34 days of major league service time. Because of the Indians depth in the outfield and Brantley's youth, the Indians can afford to send Brantley to Columbus for the first two months of the season. In doing so he would have some time to settle into his season, work on a few more things offensively and defensively, and most importantly get his service time clock aligned properly.

Some reading this may be wondering what the heck a service time clock is, or what this has to do with roster management. But, in a lot of ways, this has everything to do with roster management when it comes to young players and especially small to mid market teams looking to control their players for as long as possible.

In baseball, 172 days on the big league roster is considered one year of major league service time. Obviously, a major league season is longer than 172 days, so a player only needs to be on an active 25-man roster (or big league disabled list) for 172 days of what usually is a 180 day or so season. After a player reaches three full seasons of service time they become arbitration eligible (a select few become arbitration eligible before three years, but I won't go into that here). After six full seasons of service time a player then becomes a free agent.

Managing service time is a vital piece of roster management for big league teams and is something that every team does in one way or another. It is a way to control when a player reaches free agency, and in cases of good decision making with how a team rosters a player they can delay free agency as many as one to three years for that player. The player has no control over this as they are at the mercy of their team on how their roster situation is handled (or you can say manipulated), and is also why when these guys do finally reach free agency you will get no complaining from me when they get multi-year deals for millions of dollars.

In any case, what this means for Brantley is by sending him to Columbus for about two months the Indians will ensure he will not become a free agent until after the 2016 season. If they were to put him on the roster at the beginning of the season and leave him in Cleveland all year, he would finish the year with 1.034 service days (1 year, 34 days). If he played full seasons for the next five seasons from 2011 to 2015 it would then make him a free agent after the 2015 season as he would have 6.034 service days. However, by sending him to Columbus until about the end of May, he would end up the season with only about 150-170 service days at the end of this season, with the key being he has not reached one full year yet. This means that after the next five seasons as illustrated above he would only have approximately 5.170 service days after the 2015 season. Six full years - or in other words 5.172 days - are needed to reach free agency, so he would have to play all of the 2016 season to get over the six year threshold to make him free agent eligible after the 2016 season.

Of course, in some cases this is negated when young players are signed to long term contracts to carry them through their arbitration years and maybe buy their first year or two of free agency. But, it still helps in those contract negotiations as it gives the team and not the agent/player more control on when that player reaches free agency and thereby can keep the overall price of the long term contract down some.

The same example with Brantley could also occur this year with the likes of second baseman Luis Valbuena (1.012 days), Jensen Lewis (2.028 days), Carlos Carrasco (0.034 days), Jess Todd (0.064 days), Wyatt Toregas (0.066 days), and Lou Marson (0.078 days). Sending down Valbuena or Lewis down to Columbus for a month at some point in the season is not a stretch as they both have options remaining. While the reason would be more to get looks at other guys, it would also offer an excuse to align their service clocks to where Valbuena finishes the year with under two years of service time and Lewis under three years service time to essentially add another year of control to them. Also, by having Carrasco, Todd, and Toregas in Columbus for half the season, it ensures another year of roster control is added.

Even in the case of Lou Marson, if all world catching prospect Carlos Santana is called up in late June or early July as expected, it is very possible that Marson spends most of the second half of the season in Columbus while Mike Redmond maintains backup catching duties with the big league club. By doing this, it would almost certainly keep Marson under one year of service time by the conclusion of the season, and thereby again giving the Indians an extra year of control over him as he would be free agent eligible in 2016 and not 2015.

Now, this service clock alignment won't happen with everyone. The team will use players when they need them regardless of this issue, and this is mostly applied to the higher profile young players, but in the case when you are not expected to contend or you have other options at your disposal to use in the short term this is most definitely a factor in who makes the opening day roster and when they are called up over the course of a season.

This was a big reason why Russell Branyan was signed as his $2 million contract may ultimately buy one of Brantley's free agent years. If Brantley becomes the player the Indians and most outside observers think he can become, that is a huge benefit not only in roster control but also payroll savings down the road. Had the Indians not signed Branyan they were ultimately going to use that $2 million on someone else. They initially tried to use it on free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson as that was the base amount of his offer from them for 2010 with the rest deferred, and when he passed on the offer the Indians turned to Branyan and other alternatives.

This is why teams should almost never open the season with a high profile rookie on the big league roster. Putting them in Triple-A and waiting three to four weeks before calling them up in late April or early May provides a team an extra year of control. We’ve seen many teams do this in the past, most recently the Tampa Bay Rays with Evan Longoria and the San Francisco Giants with Tim Lincecum. This is why at the minimum, guys who have yet to have their service clock started such as outfielder Jordan Brown, infielder Jason Donald, right-handed pitcher Hector Rondon, and Carlos Santana should open the season in Columbus even if they are deemed “ready”.

This is just good business for any organization as they finagle the service time clocks with guys and push off free agency as long as they can. The pickup of Branyan himself may not have made much sense, but the idea of signing someone in order to push Brantley to Triple-A to give the Indians a whole extra year of control for a core piece of the team the next half decade or so is good roster management. This is something small market teams need to do in order to extend the life of a young players’ career with them before they ultimately reach free agency.

Follow Tony Lastoria on Twitter @tlastoria

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IPI Inbox: Salcedo Saga Nearing End

It is time for another edition of the IPI Inbox, one which will be broken up into two pieces with part one today and part two tomorrow or Saturday. Today's piece will concentrate more on questions pertaining to the big league team, while the second edition will answer some questions about the farm system.

One quick note and correction to my Russell Branyan piece from over the weekend, and that is to note that in the comments section I made mention that I did not believe Andy Marte would be the one designated for assignment once the Branyan signing is made official. As announced yesterday, the Indians chose to designate infielder Chris Gimenez. I just wanted to clarify that I misspoke and that the Indians very much value Marte because he is their best defender at both first base and third base, and being right-handed it would allow the Indians to play him and Matt LaPorta almost exclusively against left-handers with Branyan and Travis Hafner sitting.

Anyway, to the inbox we go...

Devin R: In the past couple of days, and seemingly out of nowhere, the Braves have been tied to Edward Salcedo -- most recently, mlbtraderumors.com has them finalizing a deal as soon as he passes a physical. They mention his birthday has "recently" been established as July 30, 1991. Where were the Indians when this happened? We had this guy playing in our DR facilities for at least a year (longer, if I remember correctly). He disappears for a couple years because of concerns about his age, and we completely lose touch?

Me: First off, I see you asked Indians.com beat reporter Anthony Castrovince this same question and he provided a spot on response in his mailbag earlier in the week. To recap what Castrovince said, Salcedo has been trying to sign with a major league team for the past three years but has been unsuccessful in those attempts because of an investigation into his identity. While the Braves appear close to signing him, it doesn't mean the investigations into his identity being conducted by both Major League Baseball and the United States Consulate are in the clear.

Now, as to why the Indians have "lost touch" with Salcedo? It is just one of those things where to my knowledge the Indians interest and contact with him completely flat-lined once the identity issues cropped up three years ago. Whether or not he is cleared and his identity is verified no longer matters as they have apparently moved on. Also, Salcedo was never at the Indians' Dominican Republic facilities for a year as any report on that is inaccurate because by rule teams cannot have a player at their academy for more than 30 days. The Indians did have him in for a few short visits and even saw him play in the USA when he participated in a Perfect Game event, but that's it.

Aaron wrote: When reading your comments you said "this [Branyan] signing in no way is blocking anyone of importance." You don't think this will cut into LaPorta's time? Matt is a "true prospect" that is ready (if no setbacks health wise.) How many starts, when healthy, will LaPorta get? I am not for platooning.

Me: I am not for a platoon either in this case. In the right situation where two role players are used to maximize their strengths and limit their weaknesses, I am fine with it, sort of like the "Benuardo" platoon in 2006 with Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez. But in the case of LaPorta, he is considered an everyday player so will get everyday at bats. What is likely to happen here is while there is no strict platoon, the Indians are going to be cautious with how they use him this year and not just throw him out to the wolves and play every night come hell or high water. The plan is for him to get around 500 plate appearances, but his performance over the course of the season will dictate whether he gets less or more plate appearances.

From the sounds of it, LaPorta will split time in left field with Michael Brantley and also play first base or designated hitter against lefties so the Indians can sit Branyan and/or Travis Hafner. So, while Branyan is expected to be the “regular” first baseman, he shouldn’t really block anyone other than Andy Marte and Chris Gimenez (who are no longer prospects). Branyan is more an insurance option for the Indians so they can be a little more careful in the use of LaPorta and even Michael Brantley who will both be in their first full big league seasons. Whether or not Branyan is the right fit is certainly debatable, and I subscribe to the belief that he is a wasteful signing, but even without signing Branyan his role is one that would have been filled by "someone" this year to help lessen LaPorta's burden, so make of that what you will.

Brian wrote: How in the world are we going to give any of the trio of Ambriz, Sowers, and Talbot a chance if we only have a 6-man bullpen?

Me: This question is in response to my note last week that the Indians may go with a 14-position player and 11-man pitching staff alignment for the 25-man opening day roster. I’ve since changed my stance on that as it appears the Indians may instead go without a true 4th outfielder, so they could still have a 13-position player and 12-man pitching staff alignment.

But, to answer the question, whether they go with a six or seven man bullpen I think the either scenario makes sense and still allows Talbot, Sowers and Ambriz to battle it out for the final spot. The only locks in the bullpen are Kerry Wood, Tony Sipp, Raffy Perez, Chris Perez and Joe Smith. That's five guys. Jensen Lewis is by no means a lock for a spot and has an option left, so he could open the season at Triple-A Columbus. The same goes for Jess Todd, who is all but certain to open the year in Columbus unless several injuries crop up this spring.

With a six man bullpen and Lewis/Todd in Columbus, the last bullpen spot would come down to one of Hector Ambriz, Mitch Talbot, Jeremy Sowers, and Aaron Laffey, with one of Laffey, Talbot, and Sowers being the fifth starter. Ambriz to me is a non-factor as I don't see any way he cracks the bullpen in a long man role over the other three, so to me Ambriz either is sent back to the Diamondbacks or if he impresses the Indians will work out a trade to acquire his full rights and send him to Columbus.

Talbot is the odds on favorite to me to be the 5th starter seeing how the Indians just completed a trade for him this offseason when they sent catcher Kelly Shoppach to the Rays. I actually think Laffey in the short term best fits in the long man role because of his versatility, and we sure are going to need someone reliable in the role to help in the first two months of the season while the rotation hashes itself out. I think Laffey could be in for a role similar to Jake Westbrook's in 2004 where he went in as the long man in the pen, but provided nice insurance for when a starter couldn't go long and eventually he found his way into the rotation full time that year by mid-May. Sowers looks to be the odd man out, though there is a chance he could open the year on the disabled list as the seeds have already been plated for that to occur based on reports he has had some arm discomfort this spring.

If they go with a seven man bullpen, which is likely, then the other spot should be a battle between Lewis, Todd and Ambriz. In this scenario if the Indians really like Ambriz and they can’t complete a fair trade with the Diamondbacks for his full rights, you could see him open in the big league bullpen with both Todd and Lewis in Columbus.

Ken Y. wrote: Will the Indians convert Rafael Perez into a starter?

Me: The Indians have hinted during the offseason that Perez could be moved back into a starter's role at some point this season. While I happen to think it is very unlikely to occur, in the chance it does it would not happen until at least the second half of the season as he needs to be built back up to handle a starter's role, something he has not done since the early part of 2006 in the minor leagues.

Quite frankly, I don't think Perez has the pitches to be a successful starter, so I don't know what the Indians are thinking here other than that they are just keeping their options open. With Perez being out of options they may look at every alternative to keep him on the roster if his bullpen struggles continue well into the coming season. His best pitch is his slider, a pitch which plays up in short stints out of the bullpen, but his fastball is barely average and he lacks any real quality third pitch. So, it doesn't appear starting him makes any sense other than pure desperation in a last ditch attempt to salvage his career with the Indians if he continues to struggle in the bullpen to where maybe stretching him out in the rotation for awhile can fix some of his consistency and command issues.

Eric T. wrote: Tony how far away are [Josh Judy and Zach Putnam] from contributing to the big league team? Could we see them at some point this year?

Me: With both in big league camp, they are most definitely considered big league options at some point this year. Both have vaulted to the top of the Indians depth chart among relief prospects yet to make their major league debut, and both could get that chance this year if things go right.

That said, unless the Indians find themselves in contention which would pressure them to promote them quicker, both will likely not be in Cleveland this year. The Indians just have too many other bullpen options to sort through this season as they look to build some semblance of a bullpen for 2011 and beyond. Anything can happen, but there are roster implications to consider too since Putnam does not need to be "rostered" until after the 2011 season, while Judy will need to be rostered after this season to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

With that in mind, and considering there are only 40 major league roster spots, it seems very unlikely Putnam is added to the 40-man until sometime in 2011 unless he is just lights out and the Indians have an urgent need for bullpen help this season. Since Judy needs to be added to the roster anyway this coming offseason, he really could be added at anytime this year. I think in order to avoid possibly wasting an option on either player this year they would not be added to the big league roster until near the end of August or early September, much like what the Indians did with outfielder Michael Brantley last year.

Bruce C.: Does [the Indians GM change] mean anything except new titles?

Me: Shapiro is a good GM. This team was very good from a talent standpoint from 2005-2008, but two of those years they bombed because of a hellacious bullpen. He has surely made his mistakes, but I don't see very many other current GMs doing a better job with the limited resources he has to work with. And anyone that thinks Antonetti will simply be Shapiro clone may want to rethink their position a little bit. Yes, they seem alike in a lot of ways, but so is the case when the understudy is working for his "boss" and really can't open up and do as he chooses until he has control. I mean, Shapiro was viewed as a "Hart Clone" back when he was handpicked to succeed John Hart when Hart stepped down in 2001. Look how different Shapiro turned out to be. So, while it may seem like more of the same, I think we need to see Antonetti in the GM chair first before we can accurately assess whether it will just be business as usual like under Shapiro, or if he may bring something different to the table.

Salcedo photo courtesy of Perfect Game USA

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Indians Officially Sign Branyan

The Indians announced today that they have officially signed free agent first baseman Russell Branyan. He is signed to a one year $2 million contract which includes up to $1 million in incentives, and it also includes a mutual option for 2011 for $5 million.  To make room on the 40-man roster for Branyan, infielder Chris Gimenez was outrighted to Triple-A Columbus. Also, the Indians purchased the contract of right-handed pitcher Anthony Reyes as they added him to the 40-man roster and then immediately placed him on the 60-day disabled list.

In an interesting turn of events, the Indians have said that Branyan will actually be the regular first baseman, though Matt LaPorta will still get a lot of time at first base, likely starting there when a left-hander is on the mound. LaPorta is expected to see a lot more time in left field this year than originally anticipated, which is a bit unexpected as it was felt he would primarily play first base this year. It appears that the Indians are simply keeping their options open with him at first base and left field, and also slowly transitioning him to first base rather than just throw him in there full time.

LaPorta is expected to play everyday, and outfielder Michael Brantley is also expected to be on the opening day roster as well playing everyday. From the sounds of it, we may have somewhat of a moving chairs setup with the lineup again this year. And, considering that Branyan is expected to be the regular at first base and that LaPorta and Brantley are also expected to be regulars, it looks like the Indians may in fact not have a 4th outfielder on the roster after all. With Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo entrenched in center and right field, it appears that LaPorta and Brantley would be the two other outfielders and because of his versatility Brantley could seemingly play everyday as the fourth outfielder.

We'll see how things shake out, but with the Branyan signing it is an interesting development to watch this spring with how the playing time will be doled out this coming season.

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Branyan Pickup Fills Need, But Brings Questions

The new 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More book is now available.  For details or to order, go here.

Provided that free agent first baseman Russell Branyan passes his physical with the Indians this weekend, he will be signed to a reported one year deal for $2 million.  The deal also would reportedly include up to $1 million in incentives for this coming season and a 2011 mutual option for $5 million.

It should be noted in advance that while both parties have agreed in principle to the deal, Branyan still has to pass his physical and there is no gaurantee he will.  He had a back issue which plagued him at the end of last season and is a big reason teams stayed clear of him this offseason even after his career year last season with Seattle where he hit .251 with 31 HR, 76 RBI and a .867 OPS.  But a lot of that damage last year was done in the first half of the season where before the All Star break he hit a blistering .280 with 22 HR, 49 RBI and .955 OPS in 286 at bats, but after the All Star break he fell off a cliff to hit just .193 with 9 HR, 27 RBI and a .688 OPS in 145 at bats.

The numbers after the All Star break may have been his performance evening out, but a lot of it had to do with a back issue which cropped up and ultimately sidelined him for the rest of the season after August 28th.  Whether or not he is healthy will not be known until the physical is completed, but the Indians have legit concerns about his back so he is not in the clear yet and an official member of the team.  If he checks out, an official announcement could be made sometime Sunday or Monday.

So why even sign Branyan?

Let's just get this out of the way first, I am not a Branyan fan nor a fan of this signing.  But personal preference aside, the deal in a lot of ways does make some sense from the Indians perspective.

Going into the offseason the Indians wanted to add some options at first base.  While Matt LaPorta will be the regular full time first baseman to start the season, he is also coming off of offseason toe and hip surgeries so they want to have some options to back him up in case he has any setbacks from the injury.  The Indians also do not have any other internal options to play first base as they no longer consider Jordan Brown an option at first base as an everyday player or even in a platoon role, and there is no one else in the system ready to help.  This is why they went out and picked up Shelly Duncan and signed him as a minor league free agent and now Branyan.  Duncan and Branyan give them an option at first base in case LaPorta is slow to return from his offseason surgeries (he has been cleared to play) or he struggles in the early part of the regular season and needs to go back to Triple-A Columbus for some more work or to catch his breath.

Also, the Indians do not expect LaPorta or designated hitter Travis Hafner to each get more than 500 plate appearances this year.  They could always both prove to be 100% healthy and productive this year, which would mean they would get more plate appearances than that, but that is not a realistic forecast for them this season given Hafner's questionable health status and LaPorta still so inexperienced.  So considering each position in the lineup probably gets at least 650 plate appearances per season, that's at least 150 plate appearances alone at both first base and designated hitter the Indians wanted to fill with another player.

In the outfield, the Indians will send out Michael Brantley, Grady Sizemore, and Shin-Soo Choo as the regulars when the season starts.  The true spring battle will be between Trevor Crowe and Austin Kearns for the fourth outfielder role, but where Branyan fits in here would be as a guy who can help cover both left and right field if needed.  Sizemore is still coming back from injury, and while he is expected to be 100% and good to go this season, in the case he is sidelined and Brantley has to move to center field Branyan would become a much better stop gap option as an everyday left or right fielder than Crowe or Kearns.  Brown would also be an option in left field if any injury were to befall one of Brantley, Sizemore or Choo.

In addition to playing first base, designated hitter, left field and right field, Branyan also provides coverage at a fifth position, that being third base.  There is a good chance that Jhonny Peralta could be traded at some point this season as he is in the final year of the guaranteed portion of his contract, though has a club option for 2011.  As a result, the position could be in flux all season long.  If Peralta is traded, then the Indians would likely put third base prospect Wes Hodges there for the short team as uber-third base prospect Lonnie Chisenhall won't be ready until sometime next season.  With Hodges so young and inexperienced, the Indians would need a veteran third baseman to fall back on in case he falters, which is where Branyan would come in.

Some may be asking, what about Andy Marte?  Well, Marte appears to no longer be an option at third base as if Branyan is on the team then Marte can't make the 25-man roster unless some other injuries open up a roster spot, and that means he would have to be designated for assignment by the conclusion of spring training.  While he would probably go unclaimed, unlike last year he would probably choose to leave the Indians and sign a minor league deal with another organization.  It is also very possible that if Branyan is officially added to the roster that Marte is the player that is removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Branyan.

Of course, Branyan's days as a third baseman and outfielder appear all but over with the back issue, but he could be used there if needed in a pinch.  It looks like he will primarily play first base and designated hitter in a platoon with LaPorta and Hafner which would allow him to get about 350-500 plate appearances this year in such a role depending on his health and production.

Branyan also provides some much needed experience for a team that from a starting lineup perspective will be very young this season.  The Indians will essentially have four rookies in the everyday lineup with Brantley, LaPorta, Luis Valbuena, and Lou Marson, not to mention two other players in Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo who are still very young themselves with less than three years of experience.  With that in mind, it looks like the Indians have gone with the idea to have a veteran bench by signing Mike Redmond as the backup catcher, Mark Grudzielanek as the utility player, Austin Kearns as the fourth outfielder, and now Branyan as the corner outfield and infield bat off the bench.  Obviously Grudzielanek and newly acquired Brian Bixler will battle it out for the utility role, and Kearns and Crowe for the fourth outfielder role this spring, but the veteran bench setup is the ideal scenario for them, to which I cannot argue with.

But while I cannot argue with the experience and versatility that Branyan provides, I have to wonder if it is a necessary signing.  Time will tell, and aside from Chris Gimenez the Indians really don't have an internal option that can play four different corner positions in the field like Branyan can, but I may have been more inclined to piece together the role with the internal options already at their disposal.  Whether that be someone like Jordan Brown, Andy Marte, Chris Gimenez, Wes Hodges, Shelly Duncan, or whoever, I think the internal options were just as good (or bad depending on how you look at it).

It is great to have versatility and depth, but I don't see any reason why Brown would not be as productive with the bat in such a role.  Obviously, the Indians prefer that Brown gets everyday at bats, and that just won't happen with Brantley, Sizemore and Choo in the outfield, so he is all but certain to open the season in the Triple-A Columbus outfield.  But, it is a pretty damning statement of what they feel about him as a first baseman because they really had a need there this offseason and could have just inserted him there instead of signing someone like Branyan who isn't all that good of a defender himself there.  If Brown were still considered a first baseman then it would have been an ideal way to break him into the big leagues by implanting him onto the team in the same platoon role at first base and designated hitter.  Brown will now have to bide his time in Columbus and wait for an opening in the starting outfield if Brantley, Sizemore or Choo are injured or Brantley scuffles.  Or, if by chance the Indians have an amazing change of heart and try him out at first base again.

It is also a pretty clear indication that Chris Gimenez's role with the team has slipped considerably, and that his status on the 40-man roster is in serious doubt.  He could be the one given the axe if Branyan is signed, and even if he survives that he will be one of the first options to consider removing all season if the Indians need to make a roster spot for a player they want to add.

Bottom line, the Branyan signing is just a marginal signing and nothing to be excited about, but nothing to be overly disgruntled about either.  It is par for the course as the Indians front office has scraped the bottom of the barrel for these kinds of low cost marginal reward guys under Shapiro's reign.

It is a signing that has little to do with impacting the win-loss record, but instead providing a useable alternative in the event a young player struggles.  The Indians could have used an alternative at second base back in 2003 when Brandon Phillips struggled, and not having one they stuck with him a lot longer than they probably should have that year.  By having a player like Branyan on board as well as all the other veterans on the bench, it looks like their way of helping ease their young players into full time play at the big league level and to have a backup plan in the event that player struggles.

I can't argue with that, but I still have to wonder if Branyan is worth it.

Knapp Update

In case you missed the weekly on-line radio show "Smoke Signals" that Paul Cousineau and I do every Thursday from 9:30-10:30 PM ET, this past Thursday we had Indians right-handed pitching prospect Jason Knapp on as our guest.  Knapp came on in the second half of the show for about 20-25 minutes and we talked a lot about his rehab from offseason shoulder surgery, the trade, and other things.

One of the more interesting things of note to come out of the discussion is that Knapp expects to not return to game action until around midseason.  He checked out fine in a recent visit to his doctor three weeks ago for a routine checkup, and is doing really well in his rehab and on track to return at 100%.  But the Indians and doctors are going to be extremely cautious and patient with him considering he is just 19 years old, oozing with talent, and such a vital piece of the Cliff Lee trade from last summer.

Knapp will participate in spring training though will be on a monitored throwing program and will not pitch in any games.  When camp breaks and full season leagues start, he will stick around in Goodyear in extended spring training to continue his throwing program and build himself back up to where he can pitch in real games by maybe sometime in June.  With him mentioning on the show that he won't be pitching anywhere until the "middle of the summer" if there are no setbacks, it really looks like he won't pitch anywhere until short-season leagues kick up and after the Single-A All-Star breaks in late June.  He may pitch a few games at rookie level Arizona before going to High-A Kinston or Low-A Lake County, but in any case it looks like he will be out for anywhere from a third to half the season to ensure the shoulder is sound and 100%.

Follow Tony Lastoria on Twitter @tlastoria

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