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Monday, February 16, 2009

Indians Top 100 Prospects: #33 Chuck Lofgren

33. Chuck Lofgren - Left-handed Pitcher
Born: 01/29/1986 - Height: 6'3" - Weight: 205 - Bats: Left - Throws: Left

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGGSSVIPHERHRBBKBB/9K/9WHIP
200418BurlingtonR006.0499022.12515413235.39.21.70
200519Lake CountyA552.811818093.07329643894.28.61.25
200620KinstonA+1752.3225250139.2108365541253.58.11.15
200721AkronAA1274.3726260146.11537114681234.27.61.51
 21BuffaloAAA0110.801105.0761375.412.62.00
200822AkronAA265.992815085.29357952725.57.61.69
  Career 36243.91107940492.0459214392334394.38.01.40
 
History:  Lofgren was a 4th round pick by the Indians in the 2004 Draft out of Junipero Serra High School (CA).  He was projected to go much higher in the draft, but fell due to signability concerns.  He graduated from the same high school as Barry Bonds, Tom Brady, Lynn Swann and Greg Jeffries.  His 2006 season at Kinston was sensational and his breakout season as a prospect and set a Kinston modern-day franchise record for victories by a pitcher in a season with 17, and his 17 wins tied him for the most wins in all of the minors that season.  He was also named the 2006 Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. 

Strengths & Opportunities: Lofgren was once considered one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in all the minors, but his performance the last two years no longer puts him in that class.  He is a physical starting pitcher who has a good four-pitch mix led by a fastball that sits at 90-93 MPH and has topped out as high as 95 MPH in the past.  In addition to the fastball, he also throws a slow curveball that tops out at around 75 MPH and a changeup and slider which sit in the low 80s.  He possesses one of the best swing-and-miss fastball statistics in the Indians system, which is heavily influenced by the deception in his delivery. 

Several comparisons have been made of Lofgren to a young Al Leiter as his presence, stuff, power and approach are nearly identical.  He is a competitor on the mound, and likes to attack hitters on the inside part of the plate with his fastball.  He is very good at changing speeds and mixing his pitches.  Because of the varying speeds and repertoire, it gives him many weapons to attack hitters and keeps them from zeroing in on one pitch, speed and location.  Throughout his career with the Indians, they have been very impressed with his work ethic which is second to none and a direct result of his commitment to routine and being very mature for his age.  He is a student of the game in that he understands and appreciates the history of the game, and he is very grounded ego-wise.  His aptitude is off the charts. 

The Indians placed him on the temporary inactive list and sent him to extended spring training in Winter Haven for almost all of June to "clear his head" as he was on an emotional roller-coaster all season dealing with some personal issues at home with a serious illness to a close family member.  Upon returning from extended spring training, the Indians moved him to the bullpen and it seemed to fit him and allowed him to settle down some and help get his confidence back.  While he has starting stuff where he has enough arm and enough pitches to attack hitters, he may benefit from a permanent move to the bullpen.  He has always had the innate ability to attack hitters and be aggressive, which may be better suited as a reliever. 

The big concern with Lofgren was he repeated Double-A and struggled a lot and saw a big dip in his performance, and then followed that up by going out to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) and was hit hard (0-3, 32.14 ERA, 10 games, 7.0 IP, 19 H, 18 BB, 6 K).  Last season he was clearly not the same pitcher he was in 2006 at Kinston as he was wild and ineffective really from the outset of spring training and it was an uphill battle for him all season to throw strikes consistently and put up positive results for several outings in a row.  There were some erroneous reports published on the web that his velocity had decreased considerably in the AFL, which is not true as he was still around 88-92 MPH with his fastball which is right about where he has always been with it. 

There is no questioning his desire and work ethic as he was out to the field early everyday to work with Akron pitching coach Tony Arnold on his mechanics and practice out of the stretch to try and get his delivery down.  To counteract the command issues, the Indians worked extensively with him on new grips with his fastball, his release point, and slowing down his mechanics a little bit to no avail.  His inconsistent release point hurt his command and led to a lot of walks and also him leaving many pitches up in the zone that opposing hitters hammered.  He needs to get out more with his front arm and follow through a little bit better by bringing his back leg around and really firing it and following through.  He still needs some refinement with his delivery, and he needs to work on being more efficient with his pitches since his pitch counts get high by the middle innings of games.  Also, while he has sharpened his curveball up he still needs more work with his command and mechanics to make it a more reliable pitch in his arsenal, and his changeup still needs more work. 

Outlook:  Lofgren is still only 23-years old and has a lot of room for growth; however, he has been on a slow slide and has shown little improvement the last two seasons at Akron.  Even with the down season last year, the Indians are still very much behind Lofgren and believe he has the potential to be a pitcher at the big league level.  The general thought among scouts is the talent is still there and that the issues are mechanical.  With some delivery work, the old Lofgren should re-appear.  The ups and downs he dealt with last year on the mound as well as off the field are hopefully in his past, and the Indians will look to build him back up this year and get him back on track.  It is not known if that means he is destined for a shift to the bullpen or if he will remain in the starting rotation, but in any case he should return to Double-A Akron to start the season and could see a late season promotion to Triple-A Columbus if he turns the corner and is back to his old productive self. 

Photo courtesy of Ken Carr 

Chuck Lofgren MinorLeagueBaseball.com stats page 

Chuck Lofgren Baseball-Reference page 

Chuck Lofgren MinorLeagueSplits.com page 

Chuck Lofgren video:

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