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| (Photo: Tony Lastoria) |
Scouting the Tribe
Here is a little different take on the Goodyear notebook today.
Over the past few days I have made my rounds and talked to a few different scouts from other organizations that follow the Indians all year. Some of what they say will follow right in line with what the front office has been saying, but as is the case with talking to anyone outside the Indians organization the scouts can also be more direct, to the point, and brutally honest.
The comments below are from two different scouts I talked to this week, and as is the case when talking to any scout they are kept anonymous at their request. Also, the discussion was focused entirely on the prospects at the Triple-A and Double-A level with just two or three big leaguers mixed in.
On Lonnie Chisenhall: “He swung the bat a lot better for me in the second half last year. Is he a major league bat? Yeah. I think he is going to be a solid everyday third baseman. I like him a good bit and I like him as their most legitimate prospect now that Santana is gone where he is going to be able to play defense and hit. I think he will be an above average hitter with solid power. You know, a .280-.290 hitter where he won't be a 30 home run guy, but I think he will hit a lot of doubles and the high teen home runs and in the good years hit 20-25 homers. I think if you can go out and play a good third base and hit like that from the left side, that is a good player. He has one of the best left-handed swings in the minor leagues. Boy that's a good swing.”
On Carlos Carrasco: “[His toughness] has been an issue for him his entire career. But you can’t walk past that stuff as it is good stuff. He is going to be a major league starting pitcher. He is young and he needs experience. Things speed up on him and he elevates the ball too much and he gets straight in the middle of the plate, but he will be okay. He has a good arm, a good breaking ball and a plus changeup and has ceiling to him. He is at least a major league four or five starter, but he has to achieve and there is some concern with his competitiveness. He is the best of the bunch if he were eligible as a prospect if I were ranking guys based on ceilings this year.”
On Alex White: “I like him and he is a big leaguer for sure if he stays healthy. I don’t know that he has that high of a ceiling as a starter as there are some concerns with the command and starting ceiling with that arm slot he has, but he is going to move quick and is a something. I'd take him. I still haven’t seen him yet as good as what he is, and he may be better than what I have seen. I rate him as a number four starter, but he may be better than that. I originally put him in as a bullpen guy, but then I saw him and I am going to give him a chance to be a backend starter. The ceiling is limited as a starter with the type of arm action and command I see, but he could be a setup guy or a number four starter. That's what I got him at.”
On Jared Goedert: “I haven't bought into him yet. I think he is a good mistake hitter and has an area of the plate that he covers. He has good power and good extension, and when he gets extended he is going to hit his home runs at the big league level, but I think he can be pitched to. He is a below average inconsistent and erratic defender but is not hopeless. He is a good Triple-A guy, and it is tough to find a right-handed bat with power. I think his play last year was kind of fluky as he got kind of hot. He does not miss his pitch, which is part of being a player. He is a tough one for the industry I will tell you that. I see Columbus and Akron so much that I have a lot of scout friends from other teams who called me last year when they saw him as they had no idea what to do with him because everyone has the same doubts when you watch him and then you look and see all the home runs so you don't know what to do with him. There were days I had guys from more than one organization call on him. He's a tough one. My general feeling is he is a mistake hitter when he gets extended to the pitch, but I think he can easily be pitched to by major league pitchers and the defense is on the below average side. I haven't bought into him yet. I think he is a right handed corner power utility bat. And with the year he had last year, if they thought he was any kind of player wouldn't they have brought him up in September? That was interesting. Sometimes you gotta go with your own guys, and their actions let you know what they think of the players like Goedert, that's for sure.”
On Nick Hagadone: "He needs to show some of the arm strength and stuff that would make him a desirable guy to pick up in a deal. He showed a good arm when I saw him last year, but just not a lot of command. He has to work through some delivery issues. You just don't know when that stuff is going to click. Obviously the tools are there for him to be a nice major league pitcher, though he has some age on him. I can see them wanting to keep him a starter as you want to create and develop starting pitching, and he is the kind of guy who you want to keep as a starter until he shows that he can't throw enough strikes to go deep enough into the game. That is what may ultimately move him to the pen for good. But I'd still take his arm even though he is not the same guy he was in Boston Boston Boston
On Zach Putnam: “He will appear in the big leagues though his performance is up and down. He has arm strength and is a good athlete, but his secondary stuff is not very good. His slider is really inconsistent and below average, the splitter he gets under the ball, and his arm action is limiting a little bit with having consistency staying on top. But he has a mid 90s fastball, is a good athlete, and throws strikes. He is going to get to the big leagues as commanding the fastball is number one. There is a limited ceiling to what he can be, but you never know if he develops some type of second weapon with that fastball. But he is pretty straight and the secondary stuff is not very good. He is going to pitch up there for sure barring injury. He would be one that I would have interest in a trade.”
On Bryce Stowell: “He has a good arm and he is wild. You can't ignore the arm strength. With these kinds of guys [in the bullpen] you see them such a short amount of times. I've never seen him good. I've seen the fastball velocity and some athleticism, but the delivery is bad, he overthrows, and he can’t throw his fastball for strikes. He got exposed in Triple-A where in the lower levels he had good numbers because he didn't have to throw strikes as they were swinging at his fastball. He is straight and has below average command which is not a good combination. His secondary stuff is inconsistent. It was an injustice to him though as he was rushed through too fast. He did not command his fastball enough to be pitching in Triple-A and it was an embarrassment and painful to watch him come into those games at the end of last year. I think he should have stayed longer in A-ball and finished in Double-A. He does not belong in Triple-A and he has development needed on his secondary stuff. He could not get guys out and throw strikes in Triple-A. You could never trust him right now. But he has stuff. I like him some. Him and Putnam are the two I'd get as an add on in a deal.”
On C.C. Lee: "He wasn't very good early last year, but when I saw him at the end of the season he made an adjustment and put him back on the prospect radar for me. He wasn't throwing very hard early in the year, and he was coming from an angle and guys were able to hit him pretty good. But the second half it was completely different and a different report. His arm strength was there and his mechanics were cleaned up which allowed his arm to get through better. When I initially saw him I knew they had paid some money to sign him, and I shook my head the first time as to why, but the second time I walked away and was like 'Okay, now I see what they signed.’"
On Matt Packer: “The Packer kid is a guy who could overachieve. He looks like he battles with his fringy average stuff. Being left-handed it gives him a chance. He has average velocity with a nice changeup, and he competes which is a nice thing to see. I think he is better off as a starter. He is not a breaking ball guy as he is more of a sinker ball guy, and I think that starting approach is what he is. I'll bet you he pops up in the big leagues. I bet he gets a chance as a fifth starter. There is not much ceiling for him. Eventually the stuff has to be there, which for him is questionable.”
On Zach McAllister: “I like him and think he can be a backend starter. He moved through pretty quick and had a tough year being a young kid at [the Triple-A] level last year and did not have a good year. I think he was a good get for them and is going to be something. He is a big horse that can sink the ball, throw strikes, and keep the ball on the ground.”
On Nick Weglarz: “He is not my kind of guy. You see, Cleveland
On Cord Phelps: “I have him as a fringe prospect, though he may be better than what I have seen. I don't like his defense as he is limited to what he can do defensively range-wise and turn-wise. But he is a switch-hitting bat from second base, and he is one of those guys that performed a lot better than when I have seen him. I just don't know. I am not in on him. I think he will play and get to the big leagues, but he has a limited ceiling.”
On Michael Brantley: “I still think he will be a long time big leaguer. He has a limited ceiling but will play forever. I think he is a good ballplayer. You wish there was a little more fire in the bat or center field play, but he has hitting skills, he can run the bases, he can steal bases, he has instincts and he can play center field. I really like him.”
On some of the minor league relievers: “There are relievers who have a chance. When you make as many trades as they have recently, you are going to have a depth of guys. They do have a depth of bullpen arms and a number of them are going to pitch in the big leagues. Now how good they are and if they stick up there, that remains to be seen. But they have a lot of good arms because they have made a lot of two and three for one trades. There is a depth of bullpen arms that have fastball velocity that will appear in the big leagues in middle relief. They all have their hickeys, but they have a number of guys like Bryan Price who barring injury will pitch in the big leagues. I don't like Eric Berger. The C.C. Lee kid has a nice arm.”
On bullpen arms in general: “You just don't get excited about bullpen arms unless they are potential closers in the future. Bullpens in the big leagues get built and rebuilt every year. Guys like Vinnie Pestano and so forth, those guys they come and they go unless they are going to be an impact backend of the bullpen guy like when they picked up Chris Perez. I'd seen Perez back when he was with the Cardinals and you knew he was going to be a setup guy and mature into a closer. Eventually that's all they are is bullpen arms who come and go. They do have some nice arms, and in the future these guys are going to be able to come up and be usable. The less money they have to spend on the bullpen the more money they can use elsewhere. They certainly have bullpen depth as an organization.”
On the Indians minor league system: “The Indians have a wealth of talent that they have to sort through this season. This year is going to be a pretty big year for the organization prospect-wise because all of these players have come in and they are getting to know them, and they have to start making decisions to move forward in 2012."
Notebook:
Working roster changes: I posted the working rosters for Columbus , Akron , Kinston and Lake County Columbus Akron roster, and infielder Casey Frawley and right-handed pitcher Trey Haley were shifted to the Kinston Akron roster and Cid on the Kinston
Bryson being evaluated: The specifics of right-handed pitcher Rob Bryson’s injury are still not completely clear as to how he injured himself, but he supposedly hurt his foot shortly before the start of camp in a non-baseball related incident. He is back in Cleveland
Miller update: Don’t be surprised if right-handed pitcher Adam Miller is healthy at the end of camp that he is sent to Double-A Akron to start the season and not Triple-A Columbus as many expect. Considering he has not pitched in such a long time and because the Indians have so many major league bullpen options expected to open in Columbus , his best starting point may be in Akron
Salazar rehabbing: Right-handed pitcher Danny Salazar is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and a ways away from starting a throwing program. He is expected to start throwing in about two months.
No show: First baseman Chris Kersten was released over the weekend, which I noted the other day. Well, apparently, he was a no show to camp. The Indians had planned to give him a chance to get some playing time at first base at one of their affiliates, but his no show threw that chance out the window.
Releases coming: The first round of cuts will likely be handed out sometime in the next few days, likely as soon as Wednesday morning and probably no later than Sunday morning.
Today: Today is the last day of drills and live batting practice before spring games finally get started on Thursday with an intra-squad scrimmage.
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6 comments:
When I travel around to games throughout the summer, I always look up the scouts I've come to know through the years and pick their brains. You find some interesting disparities very often, and truly reaalize how differently organizations value certain attributes over others.
But, the painful thing I've heard through, seem to be in aligment with the opinions above on most position players. I've always gotten an opinion from many that we have lots of players in the Weglarz, Goedert mold that are simply those borderline AAAA guys looking for a position they can be hidden at on the field.
Weglarz is a curious prospect to me, because he leaves me questioning alot of his abilities, but also having certain attribuyes that are unique and positive. I think this scouts opinion of his athleticsm is underrated, though.
But, to me he's a big kid that should have been devreloped as a 1st baseman from the very beginning.
As injuries persist, the team's continued attempts to pound this square peg into a round hole in the outfield will continue to upset and dumbfound me.
Agree with danh8 about Weglarz. The times I've seen him in the outfield, he seems reasonably athletic but is too big and lumbering - and injury prone - to be effective. If we didn't need to show results from LaPorta, I think he'd be at 1B now. It would certainly help keep in out of harms way injury wise.
The scouting evaluations were pretty depressing.
Very few seem to think Carrasco is strong enough mentally to raise his game. But, I think he was beginning to mature in the 2nd half of last year and improve his mound presence and ability to fight through situations. Nevertheless, he still has a problem with HRs.
I've never read anything before regarding White's arm slot. Not sure what the scout meant vis-a-vis him being a starter. The comment about command was interesting, as usually you read about White's lack of a 3rd pitch. But, command can be improved, a pitch not necessarily so.
Evaluation of Hagadone was a reality check. Also confirmed my belief that Hagadone took a step back last year.
To me, Hagadone's step back was expected. He's just coming off injury which has anticipated setbacks in performance expected.
But, this year is a very key year for Hagadone.
White needs to get that third pitch improved upon, and when that gets done, he'll be on his way.
"...He wasn't throwing very hard early in the year, and he was coming from an angle and guys were able to hit him pretty good..."
Isn't CC Lee a catcher?
No, we have a catcher whose name is Chun Chen. Would make a great future battery team, though ...
Yes, it is amazing how the views of players can differ from scout to scout. It is obviously a feel thing based on limited looks because most of the time they will see a starter throw maybe two times if that all year. Will only see a reliever maybe for 3 innings all year. While they look past the on field performance with the numbers and are looking at all the mechanics, stuff, etc, sometimes they just get guys at the wrong or right time where they are really on or off.
I like these kind of views though as it brings some reality back to these guys. Sometimes we have a tendency to hype our own guys and fall in love with them, and while the org will never speak badly about a player publicly, getting some unbiased opinions from outside the organization is always nice. Funny thing is that I just talked to a scout just before posting this piece who follows the Indians and knows them inside out....and he pained a much better picture on a lot of these guys. So there you go!
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