by: Gotribe31
Today is October 7th, and the Arizona Fall League (AFL) kicks off at 12:35 Arizona time. The Indians prospects will join those from the Orioles, Royals, Dodgers and Rangers to comprise the Surprise Rafters, one of six AFL teams. Before we get into who the Tribe sent to the AFL this year, a quick primer on who can and can't be assigned to the AFL:
• All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible provided they are on Double-A rosters no later than August 6.
• One player below the Double-A level is allowed.
• Foreign players are allowed as long as the player is not on his native country's protected player list.
• No players with more than two years of credited Major League service as of August 31 (including Major League disabled list time) are eligible except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 draft.
• To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.
Each organization sends seven players to the AFL to make up the six teams fighting for the AFL championship. With that in mind, lets take a look at the seven players the Indians decided to send down, and what the organization is likely looking for out of them.
Beau Mills - 1B
The Indians lone rep from below AA (see 2nd bullet above) is coming off a great 2nd half in the Carolina League that saw him surge to an MVP award. He finished with a line of .293/21/90, while posting .373/.506/.879 OBP/SLG/OPS. The Carolina League is known as more of a pitcher's league than a hitter's league, so Tribe brass had to be happy with that line out of the 21-year old slugger. Mills is one of two slugging 1B on the Rafters roster, along with Baltimore prospect Brandon Snyder (who also plays some 3B). He should get plenty of AB's between 1B and DH, and will be facing the best pitching of his young career. The AFL will be a great opportunity for Mills to carry over his 2nd half success, and will go a long way towards showing Mills true status as a prospect. If he pounds AFL pitching the way he did Carolina League pitching, it would be a great sign for both his development and ceiling. Mills is my #4 prospect in the organization right now, and could solidify that high ranking with a solid AFL campaign. Attempts to reach Mills to ask if he valued the Tony Award he was given as Indian Minor League Offensive Player of the Year over his Carolina League MVP trophy were unsuccessful.
Wes Hodges - 3B
Hodges put together a solid season offensively manning the hot corner at Akron in 2008, going for .290/18/97 to go with his .354/.466/.820. His defense however, still leaves something to be desired. His defensive skills have never quite matched up with his high athleticism, but that's what the AFL is for! Hodges will get plenty of extra ground balls in workouts and games, which is just what the doctor ordered. The Indians would also like to see him work on his plate discipline, as he struck out 109 times against only 44 walks in 2008. Hodges will be 24 next year, and with only Andy Marte between him and a big league job the Indians are really hoping he forces the issue with his bat. Hodges had some injury issues coming out of Georgia Tech, and it will be good for him to get in the extra AB's against quality pitching in the AFL. I have him as my #6 prospect right now, and we could see him in Cleveland as soon as next season.
Tony Sipp - LHP
Sipp is an intriguing prospect that is bouncing back from Tommy John surgery. Tony has reported extensively on Sipp's rehab, sharing with us just how hard the lefty has worked to get back to where he was before the injury. Sipp has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and is working on a changeup as well. He strikes people out at an extremely high rate, and projects to a potential closer down the road. Sipp only threw 33 2/3 innings in his rehab season, so I fully expected him to be sent to the AFL to pitch some more and prove he is fully healthy. Sipp is my #10 prospect, and I fully expect to see him in the Cleveland bullpen sometime next season after starting in Columbus. He still has all 3 of his options remaining.
Josh Rodriguez - INF
Rodriguez was coming off of a breakout 2007 season in Mahoning Valley and Kinston, where he went 20/20 and really established himself as the Indians top middle IF prospect. Big things were expected of the 23 year old this year in Akron, but he struggled to the tune of .241/7/49. His stolen bases dipped from 21 to 12, and OPS was a paltry .694. I didn't get to see Rodriguez play this year, so I can only speculate on the reasons for his step backwards as a prospect. He did have to split his time between 2B and SS due to an organizational need at 2B, which could have had a negative effect at the plate. If Rodriguez put together a season in Akron similar to his 2007, we'd be talking about him as a sleeper to break camp with the club at 2B and allow Peralta to slide to 3B. Instead, the Indians are scouring the market this off-season for an infielder. Playing in the AFL will allow Rodriguez to focus on 2B, as the Rafters have three other quality shortstops on their roster. Here's hoping that will allow him to focus at the plate and gain some positive momentum headed into the off-season. He has the talent and the right attitude, so a good 2009 is not out of the question and would put him right back in the midst as a top-15 prospect. As of right now though, it's difficult to have him in the top-20.
Chuck Lofgren - LHP
Which Chuck Lofgren will we see in the AFL? The pre-2008 guy who was listed in Baseball America's Top 100 prospects, or the Tony Award winner for Most Disappointing Indians Prospect in 2008? By all accounts, Lofgren's struggles are a combination of mechanical and mental issues, and there is nothing physically wrong with him. As a catcher, I can testify that southpaw pitchers can sometimes be a little nuts, which helps as well as hurts them. He is still left-handed, and he still throws in the mid-90's, both talents that never get stale in the baseball industry (see Orosco, Jesse). He has been a starter his entire career, but was moved into the Akron bullpen towards the end of 2008 due to his struggles. His 2-6, 5.69 ERA line is tough to look at, but in only throwing 85 2/3 innings in Akron, his arm should feel fine. The AFL gives Lofgren a shot to start putting some shine back on his prospect star. A top-10 guy entering 2008, Lofgren's struggles have pushed him out of the top-20. But again, lefties who throw in the mid-90's don't exactly grow on trees, so a solid AFL campaign followed by an improved 2009 could have us talking about Lofgren again in a hurry.
Erik Stiller - RHP
Stiller is a 6'5", 200lb right-hander out of Princeton. Stiller was a great find by Shapiro and the scouting staff, as they signed him as an UDFA after the 2006 draft. He began 2008 in Kinston, but was quickly moved into the bullpen in Akron where he finished with a 3.19 ERA and striking out 55 batters in 56 2/3 IP. Stiller throws in the mid-90's, and his stuff will only improve as he fills out and puts some more weight on his frame. Look for him to work on all four of his pitches in the AFL, and he could be a dark-horse candidate for a call to Cleveland sometime in 2009. Stiller is a top-20 prospect for me at this point, which is pretty good for a UDFA.
Neil Wagner - RHP
Wagner split time between Kinston and Akron this season with success at both levels. The 21st round draft pick can crank it up to 98 MPH from the right side, and the Indians think he slots in as a late-inning guy. He will be expected to work on his secondary pitches in the AFL, because they are still a work in progress. No matter how hard Wagner can throw, he won't be able to get big league hitters out with fastballs alone, and both he and the Indians know this. The AFL will be a great opportunity for him to work on his slider and changeup. If he can develop one or both of those pitches, he would move up the board but as of right now I have him as a top-30 guy in the organization.
Stephen Head - 1B
I know what you are thinking…this guy said each team sends seven players…Head makes eight! Head (along with Jamie Hoffman and Russ Mitchell of the Dodgers) is a "taxi squad" player. No, not like the Paul Brown taxi squad. Taxi squad players in the AFL are active only on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Head was a 2nd round draft pick out of Ole Miss who put together solid numbers at AA this year despite not breaking camp with the Aeros and spending time on the DL after he did join the club. Head went .290/13/49 in only 106 games this year, and is headed to the AFL to get some more AB's to make up for the time he lost to injuries this year. Head has had an up and down career as a prospect, and the Indians still feel he can contribute at the major league level. Additionally, he is dealing with a position switch from 1B to the OF, so it will be good to get him some more time out there so he can feel more comfortable at the plate going into next season. Versatile and athletic with projectable power, Head is somewhere in my top-30 with a chance to make a big leap if he can stay healthy for an entire season.
Other issues around the AFL:
Last I have heard, the Indians are still trying to find a way to send newly acquired Michael Brantley to the AFL without pulling another player back. Brantley was slotted by the Brewers to go to the AFL, but now that he has officially become the PTBNL, his status is in limbo. Anyone who has an update, please let me know!
Top catching prospect Matt Wieters will join the Indians prospects on the Surprise Rafters this year. The kid can flat-out hit, and will likely be in Baltimore sometime next year.
The Yankees are sending Phil Hughes to the AFL to throw some more innings after injuries derailed his 2008 campaign.
Brewers prospects Angel Salome and Mat Gamel are headed to Arizona; Tribe fans will recall their names being kicked around in preliminary CC discussions. I was hoping Alcides Escobar would get sent as well, but no dice.
Blue Jays top prospect Travis Snider is on the Phoenix Desert Dogs roster. Snider had a cup of coffee with the Jays at the end of last season, and looks like he will be an absolute stud down the road. Only 20, he'll be one of the younger players in the AFL.
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