Looking Back

by: jellis121

Well, it’s now the start of the slowest time of year for most baseball fans – unless, of course, you’re a fan of one of the 8 teams that made the playoffs. For the rest of us, though, nothing will happen in the next month or so with our favorite teams, so I wanted to take this time to dig back into the past.

The baseball draft is one of the most interesting drafts, because it has more possible outcomes than any other draft. In a baseball draft you can miss by drafting the wrong player or by drafting the right player but then failing to sign them. Most fans out there know all about the Indians’ less than stellar draft record, but let’s look back on the great picks that slipped through the Indians fingers.

I wanted to go back to 1998 for two main reasons: first, it would give a nice, even ten year period to look back on, and second, 1998 was the last time the Indians drafted a player in round one who made an impact – by which I refer, of course, to CC. From 1998, however, I am not familiar with any player past Matt White, the 15^th round pick; no other players worked out. The next year, 1999, was arguably the worst draft of the decade and generated no one who qualified. The 1999 draft was so bad the best two players the Indians drafted Jason Davis and Fernando Cavrera were DFAed. The only other player to make the majors from that draft, Kyle Denney, is best known because he was shot on the Indians bus and saved from serious injury because he was wearing high cheerleader boots. So let’s turn to 2000...

2000

In general, another so-so draft - the most successful player the Indians signed from it was Ryan Church, who the team later traded for the great Scott Stewart. The Indians did strike gold with back-to-back picks late in the draft. In the 30^th round they drafted RHP high school pitcher from New Hampshire named Brian Wilson; three years later he was a 24^th round pick by SF; 5 years after that he’s an all-star closer. Sure, he isn’t an upper tier closer but still would have been an arm to help the pen this year. Then the Indians drafted another high school kid in round 31, this time a first baseman named Conor Jackson. The Indians also had the chance to draft Jackson again three years later but instead chose the recently departed Brad Synder one pick before Zona chose Jackson. I would argue Wilson is the bigger miss as the pen has been a mess and thus far Jackson’s numbers are very similar to Garko. If you don’t believe me, check out the numbers.

2001

The Indians had six picks in the first 100 picks and zero made it to the majors. JD Martin will some day, but, still, it was an ugly draft. In what will also be a common theme, the Indians gave away their best signed player. This time it was a college OF named Luke Scott who went in the great deal with Willy Taveras for Jeriome Robertson. Overall, none of the draft picks that the Indians failed to sign from this year were significant.

2002

The best player the Indians again gave up on was Jeremy Guthrie. For the record, that makes four drafts in a row where they gave up on the best player they had signed before he got a real shot. Though Guthrie was so bad in AAA I don’t think we can blame them. This draft also yielded Brian Slocum, who probably won’t be back next year. The biggest impact from this draft – well, aside from Matt Whitney’s knee - had to be Ben Francisco. He has shown he’s a major leaguer; at worst, he should be in the league for the next decade as a 4^th OF on a good team. The big miss this year came in round 33 when the Indians drafted a high school pitcher from Cincinnati named Jensen Lewis, although the Indians did eventually fix this error three years later when they made him a 3^rd round choice.

2003

This year is the year of the injury. The Indians took two dynamic players – Michael Aubrey and Adam Miller - and both have shown to be made of glass. It proved a solid draft with nice later picks like Garko, Laffey, and Kouzmanoff. The only miss I can see from 2003 is a very minor one: in the 36^th round the Indians drafted a 3B from Kansas named Jared Goedert. This would have been a bigger deal last year, but Goedert is looking like after a down year his spec value has taken a hit.

2004

2004 was an underrated draft for the tribe. Two of the first three picks landed the Indians major league starting pitchers in Scott Lewis and Jeremy Sowers. After Lewis the team landed Chuck Lofgren who had mental issues this year but nonetheless has a lot of talent - he was the Indians 2^nd best spec according to BA a year ago. The tribe also landed two solid back-up catchers in Torgeas and Gimenez. With their 45^th round pick the Indians took a very talented player late, but this year they actually signed him and I think that Tony Sipp will end up being the best player from this draft class. This, sadly, is the only example of them drafting the costly risk player and signing him. As much as I love Sipp, I would gladly have not signed him if the Indians could have kept who they drafted the next year in the 42^nd round.

2005

For my money, this is the best draft the Indians have had - pretty amazing when you consider the top three picks have not really worked out. Trevor Crowe looks like a 4^th OF, at best maybe a career AAA guy. John Drennen has stalled and looks like the highlight of his career will be hitting a HR off Roger Clemons when Clemens was rehabbing in A-ball. The third round pick was Stephen Head who has a heck of a glove as he is the best defensive first baseman Cleveland has in the system. He had a rebound year, but still at best he’s a back-up. The next three picks are where the Indians made their money in this draft: Jensen Lewis, Nick Weglarz, and Jordan Brown. All 3 players were in BA’s top ten specs last year. Lewis has proven it in the majors. Weglarz has the patience, power, and left handed bat that remind many people of a young Thome, and Brown is the steady unassuming hitter who will be a starter for some team in this league some day. The draft was also boosted thanks to some nice picks like Ryan Edell, Roman Pena, and Neil Wagner. Sadly, though, this draft is also the most painful one. In the 18^th round, the Indians drafted Desmond Jennings - not a name everyone might know, but he was 69^th in BA’s top 100 specs in baseball last year. It was his 2^nd or 3^rd time on that list; he’s a very athletic player, former QB. He had some injury issues this year, but would have been second on the Indians top ten list at the start of the year. The really painful one came in round 42 when they drafted an undersized fire baller out of the University of Washington named Timothy Lincecum. There were concerns that with his size he would be an injury risk. My mind might be failing me, but I believe his situation was a lot like Bryce Stowells'. (Note: I am not comparing them as players, merely their situations.) I believe Lincecum played in the summer league and did very well and that his bonus demands weren’t too crazy. I distinctly remember reading Keith Law or some one like that being shocked about how little effort the Indians made to sign Lincecum. Next year he’s the #10 pick in the draft and some teams were still scared off by his size. Still, go ahead and day dream what it would have been like if the Indians had signed him - I know I do, often.

As painful as this trip into the past might have been at times, the upside is that the Indians seemed to have learned from it. I stopped with 2005 because the Indians started signing a lot more of their late round players after this point. They have taken noticeably more risks and signed players like Ryan Miller and Mike Pontius, both of which took a little more to sign. This year’s draft they really made sure to lock up as many players as they could, and we can only hope that from now on we won’t see anymore misses like Brian Wilson or, worse, Tim Lincecum.

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