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Saturday, February 20, 2010

Branyan Pickup Fills Need, But Brings Questions

Russell BranyanThe new 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More book is now available.  For details or to order, go here.

Provided that free agent first baseman Russell Branyan passes his physical with the Indians this weekend, he will be signed to a reported one year deal for $2 million.  The deal also would reportedly include up to $1 million in incentives for this coming season and a 2011 mutual option for $5 million.

It should be noted in advance that while both parties have agreed in principle to the deal, Branyan still has to pass his physical and there is no gaurantee he will.  He had a back issue which plagued him at the end of last season and is a big reason teams stayed clear of him this offseason even after his career year last season with Seattle where he hit .251 with 31 HR, 76 RBI and a .867 OPS.  But a lot of that damage last year was done in the first half of the season where before the All Star break he hit a blistering .280 with 22 HR, 49 RBI and .955 OPS in 286 at bats, but after the All Star break he fell off a cliff to hit just .193 with 9 HR, 27 RBI and a .688 OPS in 145 at bats.

The numbers after the All Star break may have been his performance evening out, but a lot of it had to do with a back issue which cropped up and ultimately sidelined him for the rest of the season after August 28th.  Whether or not he is healthy will not be known until the physical is completed, but the Indians have legit concerns about his back so he is not in the clear yet and an official member of the team.  If he checks out, an official announcement could be made sometime Sunday or Monday.

So why even sign Branyan?

Let's just get this out of the way first, I am not a Branyan fan nor a fan of this signing.  But personal preference aside, the deal in a lot of ways does make some sense from the Indians perspective.

Going into the offseason the Indians wanted to add some options at first base.  While Matt LaPorta will be the regular full time first baseman to start the season, he is also coming off of offseason toe and hip surgeries so they want to have some options to back him up in case he has any setbacks from the injury.  The Indians also do not have any other internal options to play first base as they no longer consider Jordan Brown an option at first base as an everyday player or even in a platoon role, and there is no one else in the system ready to help.  This is why they went out and picked up Shelly Duncan and signed him as a minor league free agent and now Branyan.  Duncan and Branyan give them an option at first base in case LaPorta is slow to return from his offseason surgeries (he has been cleared to play) or he struggles in the early part of the regular season and needs to go back to Triple-A Columbus for some more work or to catch his breath.

Also, the Indians do not expect LaPorta or designated hitter Travis Hafner to each get more than 500 plate appearances this year.  They could always both prove to be 100% healthy and productive this year, which would mean they would get more plate appearances than that, but that is not a realistic forecast for them this season given Hafner's questionable health status and LaPorta still so inexperienced.  So considering each position in the lineup probably gets at least 650 plate appearances per season, that's at least 150 plate appearances alone at both first base and designated hitter the Indians wanted to fill with another player.

In the outfield, the Indians will send out Michael Brantley, Grady Sizemore, and Shin-Soo Choo as the regulars when the season starts.  The true spring battle will be between Trevor Crowe and Austin Kearns for the fourth outfielder role, but where Branyan fits in here would be as a guy who can help cover both left and right field if needed.  Sizemore is still coming back from injury, and while he is expected to be 100% and good to go this season, in the case he is sidelined and Brantley has to move to center field Branyan would become a much better stop gap option as an everyday left or right fielder than Crowe or Kearns.  Brown would also be an option in left field if any injury were to befall one of Brantley, Sizemore or Choo.

In addition to playing first base, designated hitter, left field and right field, Branyan also provides coverage at a fifth position, that being third base.  There is a good chance that Jhonny Peralta could be traded at some point this season as he is in the final year of the guaranteed portion of his contract, though has a club option for 2011.  As a result, the position could be in flux all season long.  If Peralta is traded, then the Indians would likely put third base prospect Wes Hodges there for the short team as uber-third base prospect Lonnie Chisenhall won't be ready until sometime next season.  With Hodges so young and inexperienced, the Indians would need a veteran third baseman to fall back on in case he falters, which is where Branyan would come in.

Some may be asking, what about Andy Marte?  Well, Marte appears to no longer be an option at third base as if Branyan is on the team then Marte can't make the 25-man roster unless some other injuries open up a roster spot, and that means he would have to be designated for assignment by the conclusion of spring training.  While he would probably go unclaimed, unlike last year he would probably choose to leave the Indians and sign a minor league deal with another organization.  It is also very possible that if Branyan is officially added to the roster that Marte is the player that is removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Branyan.

Of course, Branyan's days as a third baseman and outfielder appear all but over with the back issue, but he could be used there if needed in a pinch.  It looks like he will primarily play first base and designated hitter in a platoon with LaPorta and Hafner which would allow him to get about 350-500 plate appearances this year in such a role depending on his health and production.

Branyan also provides some much needed experience for a team that from a starting lineup perspective will be very young this season.  The Indians will essentially have four rookies in the everyday lineup with Brantley, LaPorta, Luis Valbuena, and Lou Marson, not to mention two other players in Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo who are still very young themselves with less than three years of experience.  With that in mind, it looks like the Indians have gone with the idea to have a veteran bench by signing Mike Redmond as the backup catcher, Mark Grudzielanek as the utility player, Austin Kearns as the fourth outfielder, and now Branyan as the corner outfield and infield bat off the bench.  Obviously Grudzielanek and newly acquired Brian Bixler will battle it out for the utility role, and Kearns and Crowe for the fourth outfielder role this spring, but the veteran bench setup is the ideal scenario for them, to which I cannot argue with.

But while I cannot argue with the experience and versatility that Branyan provides, I have to wonder if it is a necessary signing.  Time will tell, and aside from Chris Gimenez the Indians really don't have an internal option that can play four different corner positions in the field like Branyan can, but I may have been more inclined to piece together the role with the internal options already at their disposal.  Whether that be someone like Jordan Brown, Andy Marte, Chris Gimenez, Wes Hodges, Shelly Duncan, or whoever, I think the internal options were just as good (or bad depending on how you look at it).

It is great to have versatility and depth, but I don't see any reason why Brown would not be as productive with the bat in such a role.  Obviously, the Indians prefer that Brown gets everyday at bats, and that just won't happen with Brantley, Sizemore and Choo in the outfield, so he is all but certain to open the season in the Triple-A Columbus outfield.  But, it is a pretty damning statement of what they feel about him as a first baseman because they really had a need there this offseason and could have just inserted him there instead of signing someone like Branyan who isn't all that good of a defender himself there.  If Brown were still considered a first baseman then it would have been an ideal way to break him into the big leagues by implanting him onto the team in the same platoon role at first base and designated hitter.  Brown will now have to bide his time in Columbus and wait for an opening in the starting outfield if Brantley, Sizemore or Choo are injured or Brantley scuffles.  Or, if by chance the Indians have an amazing change of heart and try him out at first base again.

It is also a pretty clear indication that Chris Gimenez's role with the team has slipped considerably, and that his status on the 40-man roster is in serious doubt.  He could be the one given the axe if Branyan is signed, and even if he survives that he will be one of the first options to consider removing all season if the Indians need to make a roster spot for a player they want to add.

Bottom line, the Branyan signing is just a marginal signing and nothing to be excited about, but nothing to be overly disgruntled about either.  It is par for the course as the Indians front office has scraped the bottom of the barrel for these kinds of low cost marginal reward guys under Shapiro's reign.

It is a signing that has little to do with impacting the win-loss record, but instead providing a useable alternative in the event a young player struggles.  The Indians could have used an alternative at second base back in 2003 when Brandon Phillips struggled, and not having one they stuck with him a lot longer than they probably should have that year.  By having a player like Branyan on board as well as all the other veterans on the bench, it looks like their way of helping ease their young players into full time play at the big league level and to have a backup plan in the event that player struggles.

I can't argue with that, but I still have to wonder if Branyan is worth it.

Knapp Update

In case you missed the weekly on-line radio show "Smoke Signals" that Paul Cousineau and I do every Thursday from 9:30-10:30 PM ET, this past Thursday we had Indians right-handed pitching prospect Jason Knapp on as our guest.  Knapp came on in the second half of the show for about 20-25 minutes and we talked a lot about his rehab from offseason shoulder surgery, the trade, and other things.

One of the more interesting things of note to come out of the discussion is that Knapp expects to not return to game action until around midseason.  He checked out fine in a recent visit to his doctor three weeks ago for a routine checkup, and is doing really well in his rehab and on track to return at 100%.  But the Indians and doctors are going to be extremely cautious and patient with him considering he is just 19 years old, oozing with talent, and such a vital piece of the Cliff Lee trade from last summer.

Knapp will participate in spring training though will be on a monitored throwing program and will not pitch in any games.  When camp breaks and full season leagues start, he will stick around in Goodyear in extended spring training to continue his throwing program and build himself back up to where he can pitch in real games by maybe sometime in June.  With him mentioning on the show that he won't be pitching anywhere until the "middle of the summer" if there are no setbacks, it really looks like he won't pitch anywhere until short-season leagues kick up and after the Single-A All-Star breaks in late June.  He may pitch a few games at rookie level Arizona before going to High-A Kinston or Low-A Lake County, but in any case it looks like he will be out for anywhere from a third to half the season to ensure the shoulder is sound and 100%.

Follow Tony Lastoria on Twitter @tlastoria

20 comments:

FWIW, last season the average AL team had about 660 PA for the DH and 690 for the 1B. That's 1350 PA between the two positions, and if you throw in pinch-hitting, then even if Brantley plays every single game in left field, there are easily 1400 PA to spread around among LaPorta, Hafner and Branyan. As you point out, all three have their injury issues, and it's not clear how many more than 1400 PA the three of them are even capable of giving us.

Ah, thanks for the extra info with the PA by position. Felt that was about where it was. The injury issues are concerning to the Indians, so it in *some* sense makes sense to have another guy on the team capable of 300-500 PA that can play 1B/DH. We didn't have that, which is why they wanted to get someone to do that this offseason. I keep seeing people mention Jordan Brown, but I can't stess it hard enough that he is absolutely not a consideration at 1B anymore. Things can always change, but they won't in the immediate future. he is strictly viewed as an outfielder now, barely one at that....which is unfortunate as he would have been the perfect complement at 1B/DH to Hafner/LaPorta.

Tony, my biggest question in this would be, what made them give up on Marte? The guy did hit .282 in August last year in the majors, the only month he got consistent playing time. Why not see if the new coaching staff can work with him? With the Indians situation in 2010, it seems like a perfect opportunity to continue giving Marte a shot, rather than spend $2 million for an old guy who strikes out every 2.5 at bats. As a fan I'd have no problem with Marte getting time at 1b if Laporta's slowed down from his injury. I'd only give Branyan 50/50 odds that he makes it above the Mendoza line next year, so whether he'll be better than Marte offensively is an open question. I do know that Marte's a lot cheaper and an upgrade over Branyan defensively at 3b. What really makes no sense about this is that Branyan's left handed. Laporta and Hafner have both both struggled against lefties, as has Sizemore, and Choo to an extent. So why sign Branyan who hits .210 and strikes out nearly 50% of the time against left handed pitching?

That's the million dollar question Seth.

The signing of Branyan is not blocking anyone of screwing over any prospect for a job because there is no 1B prospect in the system ready for the job. It really just affects the likes of Marte, Gimenez, and Duncan, all three guys who are not prospects at all and just major league filler on a team.

But yeah, I don't get why they don't go with Marte instead. He is clearly a better defensive player than Branyan, though Branyan is clearly the better offensive performer. I mean Branyan has surprisingly always had a .800 or above OPS almost every season in the bigs, even if in bit roles....something Marte has not even come close to sniffing. I still would have preferred marte as the fallback, and he may still be if injuries crop up, but it appears they prefer the more proven bat.

Personally, Chris Giminez, even for all his "versatility" can give his 40 man roster spot back.

I really can't see Acta using Branyan to take time away from LaPorta if healthy. However, he hit 20 homeruns at the All-Star break. He could have hit 40 if he had been healthy. There is nobody in AAA capable of doing that and to me, taking a chance on a guy with that much power is worth it for 2 million, especially on a team that does not have a lot of power. On top of that, he would be a great for the younger players to be around.

Personally, I think that only thing "proven" about Branyan's bat is that it has a giant hole in the center of it. If only we'd held onto Shoppach, we could set a strikeout record this year ... Marte did have an .802 OPS last August. Significantly better than Branyan's .206/.734 August. And Branyan's sweet .159/.637 July. It's exciting that he's now 34 years old, with a bad back, because aging and injuries are 2 surefire ways to increase your productivity ... I'm not sure what Branyan has to teach the young guys, other than how to be a super-streaky strikeout machine. I can see it now, Laporta comes to Branyan for advice, "Hey, just swing as hard as you can and hope for a fastball." And for the Indians, I don't think the money is insignificant. Having an extra $2 million to add to an offer next year could be the difference in getting a decent free agent pitcher on a one year contract. The bigger issue is this clogs the roster with another left handed hitter who doesn't seem to have a place in the lineup, at the expense of Marte. Branyan could make sense in certain teams' lineups, but not the Indians. Adding another lefty strikeout artist to the Sizemore, Choo, Hafner dynamic is a recipe for many stranded runners, and I've no idea what the plan would be when going against a left handed pitcher. Laporta's numbers against left handers have also been awful. Against right handers, who do you sub Branyan for? Choo and Sizemore's career OPS against RHP is above .900, Hafner's even last year was nearly .900, and Laporta's in the minors was .978 according to minorleaguesplits. If I'm giving any of those guys a day off, I'd want to do it against left handed pitching, not right handed.

Seth, I can tell you are not a Branyan fan.:-)

In all seriousness, while I am not a Branyan fan, I have to say when it comes to offensive production Branyan it clearly better than Marte. It's not even close. I mean he may be a human windmill, but as Chad mentions he has gargantuan power and an ability to hit 30-40 home runs all while striking out 200 times and in the meantime put up an OPS over .800. Andy marte could only dream of such *success*.;-)

In the end, they are both marginal major league players. Just role players, though Branyan has proven to be more successful to date with his career while Marte has been a complete bomb.

I don't like the signing, and I would have gone another route. But have to say this signing in no way is blocking anyone of importance. Would be different if a true prospect was ready at 1B or if Brown was still there....but the only two guys he is blocking is really Marte and Gimenez. Doesn't affect anyone else. Again, I still don't make the signing.

I'll have a follow up article to this later, probably in an IPI inbox for Mon or Tues, but wanted to note that I talked to a club official tonight and Marte is going nowhere. In fact, he looks to be very much a part of this team, and considering Branyan and Marte may both be on the team in bench roles (they will not be starters), it looks like Acta may go with an 11 man pitching staff and 5 man bench. I think Gimenez or Toregas gets the wazoo once Branyan is added.

That makes even less sense. How in the world are we going to give any of the trio of Ambriz, Sowers, and Talbot a chance if we only have a 6-man bullpen?

The only thing with a 5 man bench is that you will lose one of Talbot, Sowers or someone else who was fighting for that #7 man in the pen.

Maybe if Branyan can play LF and RF, they will go with a 4 man bench and leave Crowe off the roster and use Brantley as Sizemore/Choo replacement with Branyan or Marte coming into LF.

Also Tony, seems like you left of Branyan from your final depth chart.

Actually, the six man bullpen does kind of make sense and still allows Talbot, Sowers and Ambriz to battle it out for the final spot. Only locks are Wood, Sipp, Raffy Perez, Chris Perez and Joe Smith. That's five guys. Jensen Lewis is by no means a lock for a spot, and has an option left. Same with Jess Todd. So, it is VERY possible Lewis and Todd open in AAA and they use the final spot for one of Sowers/Talbot (I don't see Ambriz sticking over those two). I actually see Laffey in that last bullpen role with the Sowers/Talbot winner as the #5 starter (to me Talbot has a huge edge considering they just traded for him).

But they will definitely have a true 4th outfielder on the team, one of Kearns/Crowe. The other four bench guys would be Redmond, Grudz/Bixler, Branyan, and Marte. Most teams have a five man bench and six man bullpen and really is how it should be. Always hated the Wedge setup with 13 position players and 12 pitchers. Most teams go 14-11, which just may be what we do this year.

That's interesting. I still don't see how they're going to work Branyan into the lineup. If they wanted someone to primarily backup Hafner, which if they're keeping Marte sounds to be the case, then they should've signed the right handed Dye. (maybe Dye wanted too much money, but if they couldn't sign him that could've just sat tight with Duncan). It makes me wonder if they have reason to be more concerned about Hafner than they're letting on. He wasn't that bad last year. If Hafner can hit like he hit last year for a full season, I'd certainly prefer him in the lineup over Branyan. And I'd think this year of all years, they would want some extra bullpen help. Honestly though I don't want to see Marte go, with Branyan on the roster Marte has no purpose. If Ambriz, Talbot and Sowers ALL performed well in spring training, you wouldn't want to kick any of them to the curb to have 2 backup 1st basemen. Though I think Terry Pluto mentioned Sowers is having some pain in his shoulder, so perhaps he won't even be part of the mix ... The only other idea this brings to mind is that they're shopping Peralta sooner rather than later. I can't imagine anyone having interest in Peralta right now though.

I suppose they could platoon Marte and Branyan at 1b, and have Laporta in the outfield and Brantley open the year in AAA. That would actually make sense, and is the only way I'd see a Branyan acquisition having a chance at significantly increasing their overall productivity this year. Except they're saying Branyan/Marte are bench players and they've been saying Laporta's going to be at 1b. Oh well, I suppose these questions will be answered eventually. It mostly bothers me because signing Branyan, similar to trading for Winston Abreu, makes me question Shapiro's sanity, so I want to see a logical explanation for this.

I didn't really understand it even when it was reported the Indians were pursuing Branyan. Yeah he's got big power (to go with big strikeout numbers), but going after a lefty just doesn't make sense for the Tribe. That said, there's not much downside except for the roster implications. I think one of Sowers or Talbot is probably gone by the end of spring. If they really like Ambriz, they can always work out a minor trade w/the Dbacks to get his full rights and send him to Columbus. I think Giminez will probably be the guy to DFA if Branyan comes aboard, Toregas has some value/potential as a solid major league backup catcher.

Dye wanted too much money....the Indians had some interest there from whay I have heard. I agree that if they really are planning on going with a five man bench setup with two corner guys in Marte and X player, then I may have preferred to just use Brown or Duncan as that X player instead of Branyan.

But Marte certainly has a purpose on the roster with Branyan here. I asked about this yesterday and was told by someone that Marte is their best defensive 3B and 1B so he will be inserted into a lot of games late and there are still plenty of ABs for him where against lefties he and LaPorta could play at 1B/DH so Hafner/Branyan sit. Also, no gaurantee Peralta is here past July 31.

LaPorta is viewed strictly as a 1B...yes, he could on occassion play outfield if needed, but at the moment that is not the plan from what I have heard. Brantly is 100% opening the season with Cleveland unless he is hurt.

If Ambriz rocks in spring training, they will find a way to keep him (trade). And it looks like the door is open to put Sowers on the DL to start the season. So it doesn't appear any pitcher of use is at risk of being lost. We'll see though.

Couple thoughts/questions:
) Any chance the Branyon signing was just in hopes of him having a productive and healthy first half? It would make him a valuable trade for a decent prospect, like the A's did with Holiday last season? A million or so spent on Branyon is cheaper than growing your own prospect.

) Or, is the Branyon signing in advance of a trade of Peralta, puting Marte back at third?

hmm...what teams use a 6-man bullpen and 5 man bench?


NL teams use 5 man benches...but with no DH, they still all have 7-man bullpens......I remember going through the teams last year when we had a 3-man bench (I agree, that was ridiculous) and there wasn't a team in baseball at the time that didn't have at least 12 pitchers on it.....

Seems to me like the Indians are set in their theory that TTO players are more valuable because they don't 'clog the bases'. Branyan will K more than he'll hit and it's sad that they refuse to give young guys the chance and save a few bucks at the same time.

Seems to me like the Indians are set in their theory that TTO players are more valuable because they don't 'clog the bases'. Branyan will K more than he'll hit and it's sad that they refuse to give young guys the chance and save a few bucks at the same time.

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