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Friday, February 26, 2010

Indians Top 50: #20 Carlos Rivero

Carlos Rivero - Shortstop
Born: 05/20/1988 - Height: 6'3" - Weight: 220 - Bats: Right - Throws: Right

YearAgeTeamLvlGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAvgOBPSLGOPS
200517DSL IndiansR6623721616003112267.257.295.283.578
200618GCL indiansR3713417386022210200.284.338.373.711
200618BurlingtonR166631430175110.212.264.303.567
200719Lake CountyA1154365911426076247841.261.332.369.701
200820KinstonA+1084114611627186436841.282.342.411.753
200921AkronAA1324805011624275850731.242.309.344.653
Totals47417641964599232524416029810.260.318.349.667

History: Rivero was signed by the Indians out of Venezuela in March of 2005 at just 16 years of age.  He finished the 2009 season as the Eastern League's top rated shortstop with a .972 fielding percentage, which also eclipsed the club record for fielding percentage by a shortstop previously held by Ivan Ochoa's .970 mark set in 2005.  He played in the Arizona Fall League in the offseason and in 22 games hit .318 with 2 HR, 13 RBI and had an .859 OPS.

Strengths & Opportunities: Rivero has been one of the more hyped young Latin prospects in the Indians system the past three years, but has yet to deliver the goods with a consistent, strong season at the plate.  He is a notorious slow starter and strong finisher, and he once again did that last season for the second year in a row.  At High-A Kinston in 2008 he hit .263 with 1 HR, 25 RBI and a .653 OPS in the first half of the season, and then in the second half hit .300 with 7 HR, 39 RBI and a .845 OPS.  The same thing happened last year at Double-A Akron where he hit just .220 with 1 HR, 25 RBI, and a .569 OPS in the first half, and then in the second half hit .280 with 6 HR, 33 RBI, and a .797 OPS.

Rivero is an impressive specimen physically as a shortstop, and is expected to get even bigger. To go along with his size, he has all the outstanding abilities and intangibles except speed. What he lacks in speed, though, he more than makes up with his power potential, bat-to-ball ability, his hands, and his glove-work. He has the potential to be a good hitting middle infielder with some power potential down the road, and has a very good approach for a young player with a great looking swing with good technique where the ball comes off his bat well.  He is naturally strong with very good bat speed, and the feeling is that as he continues to mature and fill his frame that his above average power potential will begin to surface.  Even at a young age he already has shown a good understanding of the strike zone and a knack for putting the ball consistently in play with a career 6.2 at bat to strikeout ratio.  Considering he has played all five of his minor league seasons very underage for his level, a 6:1 at bat to strikeout ratio is very good and shows the potential with his bat-to-ball ability and plate discipline. He is a good situational hitter, and also has excellent makeup.

For a player of Rivero's size, he moves around well at shortstop. He is not fast and only has average range, but he has good first step quickness, has real good hands, and a strong and accurate arm. Whether or not he sticks at shortstop or slides over to third base depends on how big he gets, but the Indians believe he will be able to stick at shortstop long term.  He went out to the Arizona Fall League and played third base, not because he is being moved to third base but because that was where the at bats were.  No position change is in the works and he is still considered a shortstop, but there are some who think that down the road he may fit better at third base as he continues to fill out his frame and his bat arrives.

The Indians are pleased with Rivero's development to date as while the numbers are not there they feel that he is making progress and has gotten more and more consistent with his approach and with his defense.  They consider him as a player along the lines of Jhonny Peralta who is going to make the consistent routine play and have some power to his game. He is still developing, and once the confidence comes in his game and he believes that he belongs at the level he is at, that his numbers will start to take off.

Rivero's improved hitting in the last two months of the season last year was mostly the result from a lot of work in the cages with Akron Hitting Coach Lee May Jr. to get his bat path more consistent and also attacking pitches much better by not letting them get too deep in the zone.  Going forward, he needs to continue developing his approach at the plate along with his plate discipline and breaking ball recognition.  As he continues to grow and get stronger and bulkier, he needs to maintain his first step quickness and work on getting better jumps to the ball.  He has been limited in the home run department somewhat because the Indians have worked on shortening his swing, getting him to stay in the middle of the field, and work counts better to develop his plate discipline.  As a result, he often does not yet hit to his strength which is pulling the ball, and once that is unleashed a power explosion could result.

Outlook:  Rivero is the classic example of looking beyond the stats and instead looking at age, level, ability and flat out grading out a prospect with what you see and feel he will become.  Even though he once again had a season of two distinct halves offensively, he still continued to play consistent, above average defense at shortstop last year.  He is still only 21 years old, so there is a lot of projection still left in his bat.  Even though he has yet to put up a good statistical season in the minors, the Indians value him a lot and proved so when they rostered him this offseason by putting him on the 40-man roster.  He likely will repeat as the starting shortstop at Double-A Akron to start the season next year, though could see time at Triple-A Columbus later in the season.  By repeating at Akron and letting his age catch up to his level, he could be poised for a breakout year.

Photo courtesy of Tony Lastoria

Carlos Rivero MinorLeagueBaseball.com page

Carlos Rivero Baseball-Reference page

Carlos Rivero MinorLeagueSplits.com page

Carlos Rivero Hitting:

2 comments:

Tony: If you had been writing a review on Jhonny Peralta about eight years ago, would it have differed at all from this review?

As far as what kind of player they are, yeah probably. The one big difference is by this point Peralta was performing offensively and living up to the hype, while Rivero is still all hype and has yet to really show anything consistently. The other big difference is Rivero is much more advanced at this point defensively than Peralta was.

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