Hunting Down Late Round Gems ~ Indians Prospect Insider

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Hunting Down Late Round Gems

12:01 AM Benedetto 3 comments

Editor's Note: This is a debut piece from Benedetto, an Indians fan out in Italy! He has been a big fan of this site since day one and is an avid follower of the Indians from the other side of the pond. Language can always be a barrier in sports, but stats never are, and he takes a quick look at some of the numbers the Indians late round picks from the 2009 Draft put up last year and singles out anything that may be interesting to note from those numbers.

In this new IPI feature I’d like to take a closer look at the players taken in late rounds of the MLB draft. Players selected, and signed, by the Indians from the 10th round and on. Usually they are players that get little attention, but I felt they deserved to be known and looked at closer.

I am not by any means a scout, so I’ll just take a look at their numbers and see who did well just through the cold numbers. For me, and hopefully for you, it’s just a way to track down those players that might fly under the radar and be bound for a breakout season. Here they are and please always consider the very small sample size.

ROUND 11: Kirk Wetmore - Left-handed Pitcher
Bellevue CC - 6’2 - 205 - L/L - Born 3/17/89 (20)
Resides in Maple Valley, WA - Scout: Uhey

AZL Indians (R): 11 Games (7 starts), 43 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9 H/9, 9.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.22 FIP with .388 BABIP.

Analysis: Solid numbers, nice BB/K ratio.

ROUND 12: Joseph Colon - Right-handed Pitcher
No School - 6’0 - 167 - R/R - Born 2/18/90 (19)
Resides in Caguas, PR - Scout: Soper

AZL Indians (R): 11 Games (7 starts), 32 IP, 5.63 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 12 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 3.86 FIP

Analysis: Ugly numbers not helped by a very high BABIP. Horrible K/BB ratio. Not a good start.

ROUND 13: Jeremy Johnson - Right-handed Pitcher
Washington State - 5’11 - 186 - R/R - Born 1/7/87 (22)
Resides in Centralia, WA - Scout: Uhey

Mahoning Vally (A-): 19 Games (all in relief), 37 IP, 1.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9 H/9, 7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 3.23 FIP with a .317 BABIP

Analysis: Former college reliever continued to work in the pen, showed very good control, low K number but a fine 60% of groundballs . Good control and high groundball rates are usually good signs for a reliever.

ROUND 14: Kyle Smith - Shortstop
Cal Poly San Luis Obispo - 6’1 - 190 - R/R - Born 12/25/87 (21)
Resides in Visalia, CA - Scout: Sagisi

Mahoning Valley (A-): 51 Games, 190 AB, .242 AVG, .332 OBP, .279 SLG, .611 OPS, .037 ISO, .307 BABIP, 18% LD%, 9.5% BB%, 18 K%, 8 SB and 7 Errors.

Analysis: So and so debut, showed no power but nice plate discipline. Monthly splits suggest that he got better as time went on.

ROUND 15: Mike Rayl - Left-handed Pitcher
Palm Beach CC - 6’3 - 185 - L/L - Born 11/1/88 (20)
Resides in Lake Worth, FL - Scout: Soper

AZL Indians (R): 10 Games (8 starts), 33.2 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 11 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.90 FIP with a .388 BABIP.

Analysis: Nice K/9, good K/BB ratio, high H/9, very good FIP considering the high BABIP.

ROUND 16: Dale Dickerson - Right-handed Pitcher
Nicholls State - 6’2 - 210 - R/R - Born 9/11/86 (22)
Resides in Calhoon, LA - Scout: Pajari

AZL Indians (R): 21 Games (all in relief), 25.1 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 8.5 K/9, 5.7 BB/9

Analysis: Not a very good start but still put up better number than in college. Bad K/BB ratio.

ROUND 17: Casey Frawley - Infielder
Stetson - 5’11 - 170 - R/R - Born 9/17/87 (21)
Resides in New Haven, CT - Scout: Soper

AZL Indians (R): 43 AB, .882 OPS but .422 BABIP
Mahoning Valley (A-): 150 AB, 293 AVG, 344 OBP, 387 SLG, 743 OPS, 0.94 ISOP, 350 BABIP, 18% LD%, 6% BB%, 18.7 K%.

Analysis: Played mostly second base, nice debut, good plate discipline but not a lot of power. Good OBP but 8 errors in 51 games played.

ROUND 18: Dwight Childs - Catcher
Arizona - 6’1 - 170 - R/R - Born 7/23/88 (20)
Resides in Elk Grove, CA - Scout: Ewing

Mahoning Valley (A-): 43 AB, 093 AVG, 200 OBP, 163 SLG, 363 OPS, 070 ISO, 097 BABIP, 9% LD%, 6% BB%, 25 K%.

Analysis: Numbers do look horrible, but 0.97 BABIP and extremely low LD% suggest a very unlucky stint; still too many K.

ROUND 19: Nick Kirk - Left-handed Pitcher
Northern Iowa - 6’1 - 200 - L/L - Born 12/16/86 (22)
Resides in Dubuque, IA - Scout: Abney

Mahoning Valley (A-): 21 Games (all in relief), 34.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.17 FIP, 57% GB%

Analysis: Good K/9 and GB%, groundball pitcher, FIP suggest that he should get better as defence behind him gets better.

ROUND 20: Kyle Smith - Right-handed Pitcher
Kent State - 6’6 - 220 - R/R - Born 9/5/87 (21)
Resides in Louisville, OH - Scout: Melendez

Mahoning Valley (A-): 6 Games (all in relief), 18 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 6 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 4.74 FIP

Analysis: Too few innings, but too many BB.

ROUND 23: Daniel Jimenez - Left-handed Pitcher
John A. Logan College - 6’3 - 215 - L/L - Born 9/23/89 (19)
Resides in Park Ridge, IL - Scout: Armstrong

AZL Indians (R): 11 Games (1 start), 36.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 6.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, FIP 4.13

Analysis: Too many hits and not a lot of Ks.

ROUND 26: Antwonie Hubbard - Right-handed PitcherOklahoma - 6’3 - 250 - R/R - Born 7/30/88 (20)
Resides in Hooks, TX - Scout: Cullen

Mahoning Valley (A-): 13 Games (all in relief), 27.1 IP, 2.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 5.5 H/9, 9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.48 FIP with a .249 BABIP.

Analysis: Very good numbers in Mahoning Valley, no HR allowed, batting average against of .177. Nice debut. WHIP under 1. He’s ready for a breakout season.

ROUND 27: Tyler Sturdevant - Right-handed Pitcher
New Mexico State - 6’1 - 170 - L/R - Born 12/20/85 (23)
Resides in Littleton, CO - Scout: Ewing

Mahoning Valley (A-): 19 Games (all in relief), 36 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 10.5 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 2.48 FIP with a .357 BABIP.

Analysis: Put up very good numbers in Mahoning Valley but 23 year old. He’s ready for some more advanced ball, next year will be crucial.

ROUND 28: Nick Sarianides - Right-handed Pitcher
Chattahoochee Valley CC - 6’1 - 200 - R/R - Born 8/29/89 (19)
Resides in Fortson, GA - Scout: Bartlett

AZL Indians (R): 14 Games (all in relief), 27 IP, 2.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, FIP 2.48, 55% GB
Lake County (A): 4 games (all in relief), 5.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 BB, FIP 3.38

Analysis: Very good debut in AZ league and then promoted to Lake County at the age of 19 and did not miss a beat. Considering the age if he cuts down the BB might be bound for a breakout season.

ROUND 32: Matt Packer - Left-handed Pitcher
Virginia - 6’0 - 200 - L/L - Born 8/27/87 (21)
Resides in Germantown, TN - Scout: Mayer

Mahoning Valley (A-): 5 Games (all in relief), 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, 2.32 FIP

Analysis: Small sample size, but showed excellent control with 1 BB in 11 IP.

ROUND 33: Chris Kersten - Third BasemanLouisiana Tech - 6’3 - 220 - R/R - Born 12/28/85 (23)
Resides in Kiowa, KS - Scout: Cullen

AZL Indians (R): 180 AB, 328 AVG, 393 OBP, 528 SLG, .921 OPS, ISO 200, BABIP 430, BB% 6%, K% 26.7%

Analysis: Played mostly 1B, lot of Ks. Numbers have been helped by a very high BABIP but power is there.

ROUND 40: Greg Folgia - Utility
Missouri - 5’11 - 190 - R/R - Born 3/31/88 (21)
Resides in North Wales, PA - Scout: Abney

Tony already broke him down

I can add: ISO 137, BB% 11.8, K% 17.6, GB% 28%, LD% 17% suggest a solid player.

ROUND 48: Vidal Nuno - Left-handed Pitcher
Baker U - 5’11 - 195 - L/L - Born 7/26/87 (21)
Resides in National City, CA - Scout: Abney

AZL Indians (R): 4 Games (all in relief), 7 IP, 5.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 12.9 H/9, 14.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, FIP 1,77 BABIP .534
Mahoning Valley (A-): 13 games (8 starts), 57 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 7.6 K/9, 2.2 BB, FIP 3.04, BABIP .262

Analysis: Sleeper alert! Ugly “classic” number in Rookie league due to a very high BABIP, like the very good numbers in Mahoning Valley reflect a quite low BABIP. Anyway command is a strength and the wonderful K/BB ratio make him look like a very, very good pick up for a 48th rounder.

I thought that this was a nice way to follow the guys that get selected in the late rounds and see how they progress and who might be a real steal and be headed for a solid career. My plan is to follow them through their first complete year and then leave them in Tony’s hands, and next year look at the new ones coming in the 2010 draft.