Abner Abreu – Outfielder
Born: 10/24/1989 – Height: 6’3” – Weight: 170 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right
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| (Photo: Tony Lastoria) |
Strengths: Abreu is an athletic player who has an effortless swing that generates excellent bat speed and combines it with some very good raw power where the ball just explodes off his bat. He is a very aggressive hitter so is prone to strikeouts, but shows an innate ability to square the ball up when he makes contact and crushes balls to all fields and can hit the ball out to any part of any ballpark. His strong hands and wrists help create a natural whip in his swing, and he has a very quick bat on inside pitches that allows him to really drive the ball pull side. The Indians recently made a subtle adjustment to his stance as he was standing too straight up and now have him leaning more forward which has helped him get a better load at the plate.
Abreu is only an average runner, but he plays above his speed on the bases and in the outfield because of his athleticism. He has a loose, wiry frame with very long legs and arms, a build similar to his favorite player Alfonso Soriano. Last offseason he added about 15-20 pounds to his listed weight of 170 pounds, and as he continues to mature physically and grow into his body it could lead to more strength and plus power down the road at the major league level. He is a quiet player, but is very patient, confident and a hard worker. He also speaks good English, which helps him communicate and fit in better with his American teammates.
While Abreu’s offensive performance can be erratic, his defense is very consistent and he is the best defensive corner outfielder in the Indians’ system. He was originally signed as a shortstop and then was moved to third base in 2008, but in 2009 the Indians decided to take advantage of his athleticism and excellent throwing arm by putting him in the outfield because they believed he could be an impact defender there. So far it has been a very positive move as some scouts have compared his defensive ability in right field to that of a young Vladimir Guerrero. He glides to the ball and shows a lot of range moving well to his left and right, and comes in and goes back on balls very well. As he continues to fill out his range may drop a little, but he projects as a well above average defensive outfielder with excellent arm strength and accuracy.
Opportunities: The Indians have worked extensively with Abreu on his approach, mindset and plan at the plate to improve his plate discipline issues. He is often over-aggressive at the plate and gets himself out where he is pulling off pitches and not staying on them like he should be which results in a lot of strikeouts and poorly hit balls. He needs to continue to work on staying within himself and let things come naturally instead of over-swinging and trying to show his incredible raw power. He has a tendency to get too geared up for the fastball, which makes him very susceptible to offspeed pitches. He needs to do a better job of recognizing pitches and show that he can hit offspeed stuff, and his two strike approach needs a lot of work. He needs to work on strengthening his core and the mental side of his game.
The hopes for some improvement with Abreu’s high strikeout rate and low walk rate did not happen last year as his strikeout rate got worse (3.6 AB/K in 2009, 3.1 AB/K in 2010). He also saw significant dips in on-base percentage (.351 in 2009, .298 in 2010) and slugging percentage (.488 in 2009, .362 in 2010). The one hope here is since he was coming off a significant shoulder injury in 2009, maybe with another offseason of rehab and some improved confidence he can get back to his expected performance levels. It can take a player awhile to come back from a serious lead arm shoulder injury and rid himself of any uncertainties and apprehensiveness in order to have full confidence that he can swing without pain and not reinjure it, which is something similar that fellow Tribe farmhand Jared Goedert has gone through recently.
Outlook: Abreu did not live up to his promise last season as he had one of the most disappointing years of any prospect in the Indians’ system. From a power and defensive standpoint, he is still one of the most exciting players in the system, but his struggles at the plate with making consistent contact and avoiding strikeouts is a huge concern and will be the determining factor of what he becomes as a prospect. His ceiling is still unlimited and he has not peaked both physically or mentally, so there is still a lot of time to develop him and harness his impressive collection of tools. He is still a priority prospect for the Indians and the hope is that with a full season under his belt after shoulder surgery in 2009 along with the bad taste his 2010 left in his mouth that he will come back and make some very positive strides in this season. He should open the 2011 season by returning to High-A Kinston, but if he plays well he could move to Double-A Akron by midseason.
| Year | Age | Team | Lvl | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2007 | 17 | DSL Indians | R | 56 | 228 | 34 | 69 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 41 | 18 | 46 | 5 | .303 | .353 | .474 | .827 |
| 2008 | 18 | GCL Indians | R | 51 | 199 | 32 | 50 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 9 | 52 | 4 | .251 | .289 | .538 | .827 |
| 2009 | 19 | Lake County | A | 63 | 246 | 36 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 68 | 3 | .305 | .351 | .488 | .839 |
| 2010 | 20 | Kinston | A+ | 106 | 409 | 44 | 103 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 58 | 20 | 130 | 11 | .252 | .289 | .362 | .651 |
| MiLB Totals | 276 | 1082 | 146 | 297 | 66 | 21 | 26 | 166 | 58 | 296 | 23 | .274 | .317 | .446 | .763 |
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5 comments:
Players like Abreu are easy to get excited about. We continue to believe in their potential even when their performance fails to justify it.
I think that's where we are with Abreu.
Since coming to the states, Abreu has had 1 good year, '09. But that was mostly a mirage, as it was fueled by a near .400 BABIP.
His walk rate has stagnated around 4-5% while his k-rate has climbed from 26% to almost 32%. His power has declined and pitch recognition hasn't seemed to improve either.
Even taking into account his shoulder injury, one would hope that one or more of his peripherals would have improved. They have not.
Yes, he's still got potential. But, tools are just tools unless they can be translated into performance.
I wouldn't have ranked him below 30 at this point. He's still young, but I would think this is a make or break year for him.
This guy is very important in my opinion. I think corner outfield and right handed power bat is our minor league systems biggest weakness at the moment. If this guy can translate his tools into production he could provide both a solid right handed power bat at a corner outfield position. Looking forward to see what he can do this season.
DetDawg, I agree and disagree with what you are saying. I disagree in that Abreu has had three good years up until last year. His 2008 season was arguably his best when he was one of the top players in the GCL and broke out as a prospect. He led the league in just about every power category...XBH, SLG, HR, 2B, etc all while at 18 years old. Last year was his first hiccup. I don't know if it was level related or injury related, so I am willing to give him a mulligan, especially knowing how lead shoulder injuries really affect guys for even a year after suffering one. From what I have gathered in talking to people inside and outside the org, he lacked confidence in his shoulder last year, which may have contributed to the power drop (sorta like Goedert in 2009). I am going to wait and see how he bounces back this year, and I agree with the other power in that this is a huge make or break year for him.
I do agree though that the bat-to-ball ability and the high K-rate is concerning. I don't know if he will ever truly be able to sustain any ability to limit the strikeouts, but I still hold out hope that the power continues to emerge. If he can hit with power and play the above average defense he can, there is value there even with a low OBP and high K-rate. May become an Alexei Ramirez kind of guy.
Wow this is quite a fall for this guy from your list last year.
Tony, the High K rate along with an alarming GB% are just two things that Abreu has to work on improving. A friend of mine always tells me to be patient with Latin players because they can't "walk their way off the island" and you have to be patient while they find their balance.
Good write up. Hoping that he finds his groove in 2011.
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