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Saturday, February 5, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #37 Jess Todd

Jess Todd – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 04/20/1986 – Height: 5’11” – Weight: 210 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: Todd was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2nd round of the 2007 Draft out of the University of Arkansas. The Indians acquired him in July of 2009 from the Cardinals as the player to be named in the Mark DeRosa trade. He was the Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008.

Strengths: Todd is a strike thrower who has a three-pitch mix led by a fastball that sits at 90-92 MPH and has touched 94 MPH. He is aggressive and gets good leverage with his fastball and gets some good sink down in the zone. He has good command of his fastball and does a good job keeping it out of the middle of the plate, and also gets some cutting action at times with it. His slider sits in the mid-80s and is the best pitch in his repertoire that he uses to strikeout right-handers. He gets good hard, late break with the slider and it is a pitch he has a ton of confidence throwing at any time in any count. He flashes a good feel and gets good downward movement from his average circle changeup, but it is an inconsistent pitch for him.

Todd has a nice easy motion, but as he brings his glove down from over his head he hits another gear and just explodes to the plate with maximum effort. The high energy windup combined with a long stride and quick rotation of his hips allows him to get some extra velocity on the ball when he throws it. He is a fundamentally sound pitcher who repeats his delivery well, and his quick delivery allows him to create some deception on all of his pitches.  He has a resilient arm and can handle a large workload in the bullpen. He doesn’t back down and has a bulldog mentality, and in the past has been compared to former big league reliever Randy Meyers.

Opportunities: Todd is not a big guy, and his smallish frame limits him to a bullpen role because he is not built to be a workhorse and pitch 180+ innings. His changeup is still not a major league quality pitch because it is inconsistent and he lacks confidence in it, which is a problem as he has nothing to attack left-handers with. For him to have any chance at an extended career in the big leagues, he will need to develop his changeup and become more consistent with it.

Outlook: Todd regressed some last year, and his poor track record in appearances at the big league level over the two seasons may be an opportunity lost that will be hard to get back. The Indians did not even bother calling him up in September after Columbus finished their season, which may say something. All that said, he has proven everything he needs to prove at the minor league level with a lot of success the last two seasons at the Triple-A level and needs a chance to prove himself at the big league level. He will go into spring training as a candidate for one of the final spots in the Indians’ bullpen, but if he does not make the Indians’ opening day roster he will open the 2011 season at Triple-A Columbus as bullpen depth and be one of the first players called up when a need arises.

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGSVIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
200721BataviaA-412.7816058.1481821469.2232.210.61.06
200822Palm BeachA+301.657127.11850735.1842.311.50.92
200822SpringfieldAA452.97170103.07934122481.2162.17.11.00
200822MemphisAAA113.974022.2191041120.2324.47.91.32
200923St. LouisML0010.80101.232122.37510.810.83.00
200923MemphisAAA422.20412449.0391231359.2142.410.81.06
200923ColumbusAAA000.00314.010007.0770.015.80.25
200923ClevelandML017.4019020.231173718.3563.07.81.84
201024ClevelandML007.50506.095039.3334.513.52.00
201024ColumbusAAA423.3144449.0461861853.2413.39.71.31
MiLB Totals20112.7913230313.1250972787324.2182.59.31.08
MLB Totals017.6225028.1432441229.3523.89.21.94



2 comments:

Todd seems to repeat the delivery well, which means he can be consistent (but not necessarily accurate) and make adjustments throughout his outings. However, he actually 'snaps' his leg at the peak of his stride (his foot almost touches the ground at 0:29 in the first video, and then raises back up at 0:30). His foot rises because of the excessive length of his stride and he actually needs to rise up because his body hasn't come along with his stride! This leads to his eyes, arm, and torso twitching along with the foot and leg.

It is unlikely he will be able to get a believable change-up going when his release is so violent. Working 90-92 is fine for a reliever if you are hitting spots, keeping the ball down and have more than 1 average offering to keep hitters off balance, so he needs to fix his accuracy and develop that 3rd pitch.

Let's hope that Todd can smooth out the stride, which should help with accuracy and his change. Another route would be working on a cutter that could be used against lefties, his deceptive motion and violent release might make developing a cutter easier than overhauling the motion altogether.

Still, I think this guy will throw ML innings for someone, he has enough desirable attributes to stick as a reliever somewhere, but likely will never be a closer or even 8th inning guy unless a new pitch is added to the arsenal. Looking forward to seeing him in Columbus this season and watching him in Cleveland when the need arises!

Nice analysis Charlie. Yeah, I think he will get some innings with the big league team this year....but may not have the high level ability to be a late inning guy. May take the Jensen Lewis role of the last few years of pitching the 6th/7th inning and being on the I-71 shuttle.

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