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Monday, February 7, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #36 Robbie Aviles

Robbie Aviles – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 12/17/1991 – Height: 6’4” – Weight: 195 – Bats: Left – Throws: Right

(Photo: LoHud.com)
History: The Indians selected Aviles in the 7th round of the 2010 Draft out of Suffern High School (NY). The Indians signed him for $150,000 which was much lower than the bonus he was originally anticipated to command in the draft because he tore ligaments in his elbow just days before the draft. Shortly after signing he underwent Tommy John surgery in July. Had he not signed with the Indians he was committed to attend the University of Florida. His father, Brian, was a former minor league pitcher in the Atlanta Braves system for five seasons from 1983-1987 and reached as high as Double-A.

Strengths: Aviles has a very athletic and projectable build with a loose, whip-line arm action that allows him to get good leverage on hitters. Prior to his injury his fastball typically sat at 90-92 MPH and touched 95 MPH. It is believed that as he grows into his frame and gets stronger his velocity will improve, which is something that is also often seen from pitchers who recover from Tommy John surgery.  Aviles complements his fastball with a curveball and changeup, with the curveball viewed is an average offering with the potential to be a plus pitch. He gets good velocity on his curveball as it comes in at hitters around 78-80 MPH and has good 11-5 break with tight, downward action. His changeup is his third pitch, but he rarely threw it in high school and with more use and refinement as a pro it could become a plus offering for him.

Opportunities: Health is the biggest concern with Aviles. Tommy John is a major surgery, though these days a high rate of pitchers have a full recovery and are often better than they were before surgery. In addition to that, while he has very good command for his age it still needs refining. He is also a very raw, unpolished pitcher so his lengthy rehab could pay dividends as he will get lots of extra attention with instruction from coaches. He needs work on more consistently finishing his pitches and repeating his delivery.

Outlook: Coming into the draft last year Aviles was arguably the #1 prospect in the entire Northeast section of the country and figured to be a 1st or 2nd round pick, but the elbow injury he suffered just before the draft hurt his standing considerably. The Indians took a calculated shot on drafting him even though they knew he was hurt, which is a testament to their belief in him as a prospect and also that their medical staff can get him 100% healthy again. He will open the 2011 season in extended spring training, and if his rehab goes well he could make his return to the mound late in the Arizona Summer League season or in the fall during Instructional League.

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGSVIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
201018DNP----------------
MiLB Totals----------------



3 comments:

This guy was a heck of a pick for the 7th round and I give the Indians credit for taking a chance with the signing bonus. Sounds like this kid has a real live arm, and his velocity should get better not only from the usual TJ "bump" but also as he matures physically. Again, I'm really glad to see the Indians willing pay a premium for high upside guys like this. It's a nice change from the Sowers/Huff/Laffey/Scott Lewis template they followed as little as 3 years ago. Is this Antonetti taking a whole new strategy to the amateur draft?

Mark, the drafting strategy (going above slot) started changing under Shapiro a few years back. Antonetti is a disciple of Shapiro, he won't do everything like Mark, but it's going to be a similarly run organization.

You're right though, having more arms, like Aviles, that can make an impact at the ML level, even if they flame out in AA, is better than having a bunch of guys that merely "make it to the show".

I don't think it is necessarily a new strategy, just a revised one where they know they need to go for even more upside guys rather than in past years how they often seemed to almost settle for safer picks. They were budget conscious in 2009 but still had a very good draft and had money to burn last year and had a very good draft....so they have kind of gone both ways. The key is they appear to be bringing in the right guys (we hope) now.

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