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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

2011 Indians Top 50 Prospects: #25 Josh Judy

Josh Judy – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 02/09/1986 – Height: 6’4” – Weight: 200 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: Judy was selected by the Indians in the 34th round of the 2007 Draft out of the Indiana Institute of Technology. He has pitched well in offseason leagues, going 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA in 11 games (17.0 IP, 13 H, 8 BB, 20 K) out in the Arizona Fall League in 2009, and then going 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 12 games (12.0 IP, 11 H, 0 BB, 9 K) out in the Dominican Winter League in 2010.

Strengths: Judy is both an excellent performer and very projectable relief pitcher where he has backed up some outstanding statistics in the minors with some great stuff and ability. He is armed with two plus pitches; a fastball that sits 91-94 MPH and touches 96 MPH and a wicked slider. His fastball has great life through the zone and some good sinking action where he gets hitters to put the ball on the ground. He did a better job pitching with his fastball last season and got a lot of outs with it on the plate. His plus slider continues to improve every year and is now very tight with good, sharp break and late movement.  It is his strikeout pitch because hitters have a real hard time picking it up and it has good swing and miss ability. His third pitch used to be a curveball that he threw in college, but since coming into the Indians’ system the pitch was dropped in favor of a changeup which he is still working on developing and is rarely thrown in games.

Judy has all the makings of a big league bullpen arm, potentially in the backend because of his demeanor to handle pitching late in games with his aggressiveness going right after hitters, good composure, and bulldog mentality. He is a big, physical pitcher at 6'4" 200 pounds who does a good job of keeping the ball down in the zone at a good angle with excellent sink. Back in the middle part of 2009 he changed from a high leg kick and load position in the stretch to a more tightened up delivery where it is very quick and subtle, and ever since the results have been very positive. He gave up more hits last year than years past (9.9 H/9 2010, 6.5 H/9 2009, 7.3 H/9 2008, 6.4 H/9 2007), but by the same token he put up his best strikeout to walk ratio (4.07) of any season and did that at the highest level of the minor leagues.

Judy had a setback in his last outing of spring training last year where he pulled a muscle in his arm and strained his UCL in his right elbow which shelved him the first month and a half of the season. Team doctors examined him and determined that it was just a strain and not a tear, but the injury still set him back where he had to open the season in extended spring training and then went to Double-A Akron on May 12th before joining Triple-A Columbus later in May. He was a little rusty in the early going as in nine combined May appearances between Akron and Columbus he had a 7.00 ERA (9.0 IP, 15 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 11 K). He found that coming out of extended spring training his arm slot was a lot lower than it used to be, likely from him over-compensating for the arm injury, and once his arm slot crept back up to its normal position he took off. From June 1st until the end of the season he made 31 appearances going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA (40.0 IP, 39 H, 12 BB, 44 K).

Opportunities: Judy’s success is tied to the effectiveness of his slider, and at times he struggles because he has a tendency to get under it which results in it flattening out. He needs to continue to refine it in order to improve its consistency and tighten it up. His fastball command and pitching mechanics could still show improvement, and will be one of the things he works on this spring to finish himself off as a prospect to get that big league call. He will also work on better controlling the running game to ensure he is ready for running situations in the big leagues, so early on in Columbus it should be an area focused on greatly in order to improve his pickoff move and change his tempo when he pitches from the stretch with runners on base. He had bicep tendonitis in June of 2009 and the UCL strain in 2010, so there are some durability concerns.

Outlook: Judy is one of the greatest stories in the system considering he was a complete unknown who was a late round draft pick out of an unknown college. He quickly established himself in the organization and showed he had some excellent stuff, and has since become a priority relief pitching prospect for the Indians and was added to the 40-man roster in the offseason. He is being groomed for a potential late inning relief role in the big leagues, and should get regular work in the 7th through 9th innings of games this coming season at Triple-A Columbus. When he makes his expected major league debut at some point this season, he will initially pitch in middle relief, but has a chance to settle into a setup role by the end of the season. He should open the 2011 season at Triple-A Columbus.

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGSVIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
200721GCL IndiansR120.639014.11110814.2045.08.81.33
200721Mahoning ValleyA-000.004111.070037.1942.55.70.91
200822Lake CountyA1213.5135174.1602962580.2233.09.71.14
200822KinstonA+001.937014.01230117.2260.610.90.93
200923KinstonA+000.00534.240007.2350.013.50.86
200923AkronAA433.10361149.1351721863.1983.311.51.07
201024AkronAA009.00202.062002.5450.09.03.00
201024ColumbusAAA302.6838247.0481451455.2622.710.51.32
MiLB Totals2062.7413618216.2183661369245.2292.910.21.16

4 comments:

I absolutely love this kid. I've sat behind the plate with a scout friend of mine, and I don't see anything but injury luck that can prevent him from success at the major league level. He's just got the stuff. He gets that change up to snuff and he'll be dominant with what he's got on his red, and slider. The fastball just has great natural movement down/in, and the slider can be devastating with more potential as well. When I saw him he tipped his change, and ML hitters will catch it, so, that's the element that he needs to work on, but he can really make it on what he's got with the slide/fb ...the change will just make those two just that much better, which will put him up to a verysuccessful level.

He's just got the body/mind/personality/stuff to succeed. Expect it.

I am a huge Judy fan and I think he is the best of our relief prospects (Stowell close behind). Stowell has a more high ceiling but I would be my money on Judy becoming our best relief option long term. Judy was #24 last year so even though his star prospect seems to be growing, the Tribe's deeper system this year still is pushing him down the rankings. This should be Judy's coming out season to become a fixture in the Tribe bullpen come June.

Chris Perez

Stowell
Sipp
Bryson
Rondon
Judy
Putnam
Hagadon

That could be a pretty nice bullpen.

I agree. I have been a big fan of Judy's for awhile now. He slipped one spot in the ranking from last year, but not because he slipped, he was actually better. Just a strong 2010 Draft pushed him down a notch. Definitely has the goods....the only question now is can he do it at the ML level. We'll soon find out.

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