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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Composite Top 16

As many of you may know, I have reached out to many of you to see if you wanted to get involved with the site. Jellis is one of those people, and he along with a few others who will debut in the coming days and winter will help provide a varying opinion and perspective on things. Also, they will be able to provide some good analysis pieces and more that should complement the stuff I do on the site. Welcome aboard Jellis - TL.

Some of you out there might know me as the frequent commenter Jellis on this site. I am very excited to now get a chance to write for this great site, and for my first article I thought I would do a look back. This year our minor league system made a major jump - this is in part thanks to breakthrough and also trades. With people’s top ten lists starting to be formulated, I thought we could look back to last year and look at a cumulative top ten. For my sources I used four respected names: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickles, and Tony. To determine the cumulative rank I assigned a first place rating worth 10, 2nd worth 9, etc. Those four sites left me with exactly 16 players, so I will comment on each one if they are up or down but also about their year in general, starting with number 16.

16. Jon Drennen OF
He had one 10th place vote, though I would be surprised to see him anywhere near the top 10 this year. Drennen’s downward spiral continues this year and I would not be surprised to see him repeat at Kinston. On his rank for next year I have to say I am unsure but would place him maybe in the mid 30’s - he’s young and has shown promise but seems to have hit a wall.

15. Jared Goedert 3B
He was last year’s breakout player in the minors with an amazing first half and a solid second half, but this year he was average. Right now he projects more as a utility player. Thanks to an okay year he will drop this year to the 20’s in terms of specs.

14. Tony Sipp MR
He was actually tied with Goedert and Ben Francisco, all having one 8th place vote. Sipp is still recovering from his surgery this year and it’s hard to evaluate. He will slide this year back into the same range as Goedert, but I would expect to see him in Cleveland this year and we can all hope he can get back to his pre-surgery ways.

13. Ben Francisco OF
He has had a solid year for the Indians, and he looks like he should end up a 4th OF on a good team, but he’s a guy I would love to have on roster any day. He won’t qualify as a spec anymore.

12. Trevor Crowe OF
He appeared on two lists. He had a better season this year, including a scorching 2 month period, but once he was promoted to AAA he failed to continue impressing. Looks like he’s ticketed to go to Columbus next year, though if an OF gets traded then maybe with a solid spring he makes the team. This year 13-18 range sounds about right.

11. David Huff SP
He was hurt last year and didn’t get a lot of looks, but he might be the biggest break out spec for the Indians this year. He was an all star in AA, then got to AAA and pitched even better. We will see him in Cleveland some time next year. This year he’s a top 5 spec.

10. Brad Synder OF
He only made one list but was high on that list so he sneaks into the top 10 here. Synder had another average year for the Bisons and will more than likely be with another organization next year. (editor's note: Snyder was just picked up off waivers by the Cubs on Tuesday before this article was submitted)

9. Josh Rodriguez SS
He was another breakout player last year for Kinston and struggled this year at Akron, hitting 240, but the more troublesome stat was the drop in his power - he looks more like a utility player. He slots in the late teens or early 20’s this year.

8. Scott Lewis SP
If not for Huff then everyone would have talked about Lewis’s year. He stayed healthy and pitched very well in AA and then after a short stay in Buffalo, he has now joined the Indians and is 3-0 and will be in the competition to make the team next year. I would think he would be in the 8-12 range for this year’s spec list.

7. Aaron Laffey SP
After a great year in AAA and then pitching well in the majors, Laffey was another riser last year. It looked like that trend would continue as he was very, very good when he got called up, until July when the wheels fell off and he went back to AAA where he struggled – makes you wonder if there isn’t a bigger issue. I don’t think he qualifies as a spec anymore but I could be wrong; if he does, I would think he’s in the early teens based on what he has done.

6. Jordan Brown 1B
He was coming off back-to-back MVP years and I agreed with everyone else when I thought we had a Mark Grace-like first baseman, but thanks to an early injury his numbers were down and he didn’t make it to the majors this year. I expect to see him in Columbus to start the year and be called up if an injury strikes. He is victim of an okay year in a much deeper system, though, and slides back into the middle teen range.

5. Nick Weglarz OF
It’s hard to not be excited by this kid’s power and eye at such a young age. Last year he started to garner attention after having recovered fully from his hand injury. This year he continued his development and had the best Olympics of any player we sent there. He should be top 5 again next year and will likely spend the year in Akron.

4. Chuck Lofgren SP/MR
I don’t know if anyone had a harder year than Lofgren did. I don’t know what his personal issue was so I can’t comment on how that might have affected him. Some people had him as high as the number 2 spec in the system this year - he won’t make the top ten and might fall to the 20’s. There are real questions if he will be a SP or a MR and that’s if he stays with us. The Indians have to roster him; if not, I could see a team like the Nationals stashing him in their pen for the year.

3. Beau Mills 1B
He won the MVP this year and had an all-around great year. He should continue his advancement and hitting and could be a lefty Laporta. He’s a top 3 spec this year.

2. Wes Hodges 3B
Hodges was another player who had an excellent year. He faded a bit in the second half but still had a great year across the board. The only concern at this point is defense as he had a lot of errors, so even with a good year he’s probably going to slide to the 4-6 range in most lists. I think, though, that that’s not so much a statement on him but rather a reflection of how deep the system has gotten.

1. Adam Miller SP
If he could just stay healthy, he would still be number one. He has two devastating pitches, but we all know how injury prone he is. It’s been reported he will spend all of next year in the pen. Based on potential alone he will still be in the top 10, but for the first time since 2004 he won’t be number 1.

So we fast forward to now and of the 16 players mentioned here only 6 have a legitimate chance of making this same list next year. It’s been a hard year for Tribe fans, but the minors have given us a chance for great hope for next year and beyond. Thanks for reading this - I hope it was a solid and enjoyable first article.

8 comments:

Jellis,

Please have TL getyou my email address. I've worked on a similar project for the last few seasons but there are some distinct differences.

I'd like to discuss the methodologies of each each project because they might be able to work in tandem going forward.

Mike B
MadThinker88

"This year he’s a top 5 spec"

If he's a top 5 spec, why did you list him as 11th? This entire thing doesn't make any sense.

This is a composite list of all the guys who before the start of this season appeared on Top 10 lists among four sources. Jellis was just taking a look back at those rankings, and what changed.

sorry if I was unclear I made a composite of last years rankings, to show how much things have changed any time now people will start making there top list and this was just a tool to look back I figure and maybe some fun to see how strong the system is now

Nice work Jellis. pretty amazing how much difference a year makes.

Good job for a first-timer! Would like your opinion on this possible "murderer's row" lineup for the '09 Aeros....
1B Beau Mills
2B Jared Goedert
SS Carlos Rivero
3B Taylor Green ( PTB from Brewers)
C Carlos Santana
LF Matt Laporta
CF Jose Constanza
RF Nick Weglarz
DH Todd Martin

same anonymous as before.

Thank you, now I see where I was mistaken.

As great as that line up would be I think there's a less than 1% chance of it happening. I dont expect this team to trade for or sign an OF and really think Laporta will get every chance to make the Indians and if he doesn't then well, he will be in Columbus as that want it to be an exciting first year. Me personally would be most excited to see the two young ones weglarz and Rivero next year should be huge break out years for both

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