Rule 5 In Review

Since it's been a relatively quiet off-season for the Indians, most of the talk has been about the 40-man roster and concern about the Rule 5 Draft. There has been a lot of confusion over who is eligible and who the Indians might lose in the draft. For those who don’t know how it works and want to get more info on it, take a look on this site and you can find that Tony has explained it many times. I wanted to quickly just touch on the monetary side of the draft. If you select a player, you must pay his team 50K for the selection; if that player doesn’t make the team’s 25-man roster then he can be returned to the original team if the original team is willing to pay a 25K return fee.

This article is a five year look back at the Rule 5 drafts to help give an idea of who typically gets taken in the draft. I tried my best to locate every trade, but I admit I might have missed one or two as many of these players have little or no information on them, thanks to the fact that few of them actually play any significant time in the majors. One thing to keep in mind is that when I talk of trades I mean trades where teams work out a deal to keep a player they selected and send him to the minors. I am not counting deals where Rule 5 selections are traded on draft day. In addition, I would list a player as an SP if that was what he primarily did the season before in the minors; most pitchers even when SP in the minors are going to be a MR if they get taken in the Rule 5 draft.

2003

In the 2003 Rule 5 there were a total of 20 selections, only 7 of which were kept (roughly 1/3). There was one trade which most Indians fans will remember: the Indians traded a selected player, Willy Taveras, along with Luke Scott for Jeriome Robertson. While a stinker of a deal now, I can’t fault the Indians for trading for a lefty coming off a 15 win season in a hitter’s park. The break down of players selected in the draft is as follows:

SP 1 (5%)
MR 12 (60%)
C 0 (0%)
1B 1 (5%)
2B 0 (0%)
SS 2 (10%)
3B 0 (0%)
UTIL 2 (10%)
OF 2 (10%)

Indians selected: 4 (20%)

The four Indians selected in the draft were Willy Taveras, Hector Luna, Lino Urdaneta, and Matt White. Of these players only Luna was not offered back to the Tribe. The biggest name selected in the draft was either Taveras or Chris Shelton to Detroit. In other words, it’s not like any all stars were taken this year. I have listed the category of a utility player here for the first time – this is a player who logs 50 or more games at multiple infield positions.

2004

In the 2004 Rule 5 Draft there were 12 players selected and of those only 3 were kept. There were no deals and the Indians did not have any selected this year. The break down this year was:

SP 3 (25%)
MR 5 (42%)
C 0 (0%)
1B 0 (0%)
2B 0 (0%)
SS 0 (0%)
3B 1 (8%)
UTIL 0 (0%)
OF 3 (25%)

Of the players kept, the player who hasn’t gotten much publicity is Andy Sisco, someone people made a big deal of when he was first drafted but who has really failed to do much since then. The best player selected in this draft was Shane Victorino, but he was not actually kept. Victorino could not make the Philly squad, but the Dodgers didn’t want to pay the money for the return fee so Philly was able to keep him. It’s undoubtedly a mistake the Dodgers regret to this day as the return fee is virtually nothing.

2005

In the 2005 draft there were again 12 selections and only 3 players kept. I also found no trades and zero Indians selected. The break down this year was:

SP 2 (17%)
MR 8( 67%)
C 0 (0%)
1B 0 (0%)
2B 1 (8%)
SS 0 (0%)
3B 0 (0%)
UTIL 0 (0%)
OF 1 (8%)

The big player that was selected during this year was Dan Uggla, who moved from Arizona to Florida. Another interesting aspect of this draft was pitcher Victor Santos, who was selected, stayed on roster all year, and then was cut after the season was over. Now three years into this review we see that the draft is dominated by MR arms, specifically players who were MR in the minors.

2006

This year there was a rise in both players selected and kept. There were 19 players taken and 4 kept, but the percentage of players kept dropped to 21%. There were also two trades that happened this season. The first player taken was an Indian, Ryan Goleski, but I am sure Oakland wishes they had taken Josh Hamilton instead. Here is the break down for the draft:

SP 1 (5%)
MR 10 (53%)
C 3 (15%)
1B 1 (5%)
2B 0 (0%)
SS 0 (0%)
3B 0 (0%)
UTIL 2 (11%)
OF 2 (11%)

Indians selected: 2 (11%)

This is the most interesting draft in this five year cycle because not only were there two Indians taken, but one all-star and one soon to be all-star were selected. The two Indians were Ryan Goleski and Jim Ed Warden, both of who were returned to the Tribe. The all-star players that year were Josh Hamilton and Joakim Soria. Both players were surprise picks at the time but have looked like genius since then. Hamilton had been so long out of the game and Soria had never played above A ball. They were both well-thought of though and ended up being the 2^nd and 3^rd players selected in the draft.

2007

Last year’s draft saw a total of 18 players drafted, and of those 18 only 3 were kept. Once again the percentage of players kept this time was around 17%. In terms of trades there were a total of four, so a lot more players were able to stay with the team that selected them. There were two Indians selected and one of them, Brian Barton, was one of the players kept. Here is the break down:

SP 2 (11%)
MR 12 (67%)
C 0 (0%)
1B 0 (0%)
2B 1 (5%)
SS 0 (0%)
3B 1 (5%)
UTIL 0 (0%)
OF 2 (11%)

Indians selected: 2 (11%)

With this draft there was no marquee name. It can be argued that Barton did the most of any player that was kept as the other two were middle relievers that didn’t show much. Once again the draft was dominated by guys who teams take a flier on to see if they can help the pen. After all, 50K is cheaper than even the minimum FA contract.

5-Year Total

Now, if the data from the past five years is added together, it is possible to see what and who a team like the Indians could lose. In the five year cycle there were 81 players selected and a total of 21 kept, so roughly only 26% of all players selected stick. The average amount of players selected every year is 16, which basically means an average of four players leaving teams. In that same time there were 7 trades, so it also seems a lot of teams were unwilling to trade a prospect that was selected from their team. Here is the break down:

SP 9 (11%)
MR 47 (57%)
C 0 (4%)
1B 2 (2%)
2B 2 (2%)
SS 2 (2%)
3B 2 (2%)
UTIL 4 (5%)
OF 10 (12%)

Indians selected: 8 (10%)

What these data show (to me, at least) is that the main use of the Rule 5 Draft is to find bullpen help. There are also a decent amount of outfielders and starting pitching, but by and large the draft is dominated by bullpen help. It is a bit disturbing to see 10% of all players selected come from the Indians. One might think, well, on a positive note, in the cycle only two Indians were lost by being selected and kept on roster the whole year, except that if you take the two out of the total players it means that of all the players kept in the last five years, 10% were from the Indians. The two players the Indians lost were Brian Barton and Hector Luna, so it goes against the rest of the data since you would expect at least one of the lost players to be a bullpen arm.

I believe the Indians will have two to three players selected, but I also expect most of them to be returned. Looking at all the data, I feel the most likely to be selected and lost is Jordan Brown (advanced bat and plays multiple positions). I expect some team to take a chance on Neil Wagner because of his velocity and the fact that he’s a bullpen guy. On a team like SD or Bal, why not roster a guy who can get it up there at 98; the only issue is that he spent a good chunk of the year in A.

I would not be shocked to see anyone else taken, but every other player has some detracting issue. Stephen Head plays the best first base in the whole system and had a solid year, but the previous lackluster seasons and lack of patience at the plate might scare teams. Lofgren has a lot of talent, but this year was very rough and the jump from AA to the majors is huge. Randy Newsom had another great year, but some still view him as a gimmick pitcher. If a 2^nd or 3^rd player is selected I would expect it to come from that group.

I personally think every one of these guys can help the Indians at some point and hope none get selected, but at the same time I just see no way the Indians get through this year unscathed. The draft is quickly approaching and I know everyone here will be checking the results – let’s just hope there aren’t too many Indians on it.

Posted in: Brian Barton,Chuck Lofgren,Jordan Brown,Matt Whitney,Neil Wagner,Randy Newsom