Some Final Rule 5 Thoughts

After my preview article posted yesterday, there were some comments and questions pertaining to my stance on why I now feel the Indians likely will not lose anyone in the Draft when a few weeks earlier I felt we could possibly lose a player or two.

Well, a lot of this is perspective. When you spend 95% of your time following just the Indians minor leaguers, you tend to have a personal attachment to all the players and inflate their value some because you know them and see them play often. Familiarity. Initially, without much consideration of what the other 29 teams would have eligible to be drafted, I felt that some guys like Jordan Brown, Chuck Lofgren, and others could be drafted.

That said, after talking to a few people in other organizations who are actually doing the scouting for their org for this draft, the general consensus was the Indians eligibles list was very weak and it is likely that no one is selected. In fact, the eligibles list for all the teams overall is not anywhere close to offering up potential major league talent like in years past. This is why my stance changed somewhat.

My value for the Indians players that are eligible has not changed at all. Personally I believe that should any of them get a chance elsewhere, they will succeed. But objectively, when considering the value outsiders have for these players compared to other players available from other teams, this is where my opinion changed from thinking it was possible a few guys could be taken to believing it being very unlikely anyone is taken at all. Of course, I only talked to people from three teams, so there are still 26 other organizations who may feel differently about our players and select one or two.

As far as my comment from one person who said the Indians would be the “last team they would look at for players”, this in no way is indicative of a lack of talent the Indians Rule 5 eligible players have. This really is about how well they play at the major league level and if they are a suitable fit for a team. Contrary to what many may believe, teams strongly consider if the player can play and handle playing in the major leagues when taken in the Rule 5 Draft. They do not draft a player with the idea to stash a guy on the roster as he has to be a potentially useable piece when he is drafted. The one exception to this rule is if there is a high impact level hitter or pitcher who is exposed that a team may want to stash away. The Indians have no such player available. They have some good players available, but no one who is projected to someday be a FOR starter, backend bully guy, or middle of the order bat.

As for the Indians possibly taking a player in the draft, I don't foresee the Indians taking anyone. It would be a big surprise as to me they have a plethora of relief options and 4th outfielders on the roster. Prior to last night’s trade for infielder Luis Valbuena there was an outside shot they could target an infielder to use in some sort of platoon at second base with Jamey Carroll or Josh Barfield, but that is no longer a possibility. They will likely just be monitoring who is taken from their team and leave it at that.

The thing to remember here is only about 15-25 players are likely to be taken in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. With over a 1000 players eligible to be taken, those are some long odds. Again, I could be completely wrong and we lose two guys. That is the uncertainty of the Rule 5 Draft, and the gamble/guess I am making based on info I have at this time.

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