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| Matt LaPorta (Photo: AP) |
Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman are available and potential fits (though left-handed in the heavily tilted Tribe lineup). Matt LaPorta is the struggling not-so-green prospect (but right-handed). It is very clear to say that Kotchman or Pena are more guaranteed bats and certainly better defenders. So why not make the relatively low-risk investment (also, I’m a big Kotchman fan if we do, FYI).
There are many factors beyond player selection that are going into this decision:
Long Term team performance – Basically, does the organization want to completely abandon the biggest piece from the CC Sabathia trade? LaPorta seems to have officially “died” as a prospect, but he just turned 27 and has roughly two seasons worth of plate appearances and many of these have come while injured. While unlikely, LaPorta could still figure things out and become the eventual Hafner replacement after this season because he is not a good defender at first base.
Short Term team performance –
Economics – The Indians do not want to spend money that isn’t delivering high-class bang for their buck. This is where my issue with signing on Pena and Kotchman begins and ends: if we sign them, what are the chances that one of them is the difference between playoff contention for the entire season (to the extent it drives attendance) and being a non-factor? In my mind, it is extremely small. Granted, so too, is the financial commitment the Indians will have to make. In addition to this, if first base is really a sore spot and the Indians feel they are extremely close to contention after a fractional season they can just go after the numerous first basemen available as the year continues on.
Win Probability – Let’s say the Indians pick Pena, and lets further say that he turns into a three-win player (fair, he had six Wins Above Replacement in 2007, but has settled in around/below this level). So the Indians get him for the entire season and get their three wins above LaPorta, who we will further assume is a 0 win player.
Flexibility - Around the half-way point of the season, teams make the decision to go for it or throw in the towel. At this point, Pena might have accumulated 1.5 more wins than LaPorta. These wins would be very unlikely to sway Indians management to go for it as opposed to conceding defeat…too many other parts are too important in determining this component. The Indians could just give LaPorta more time to establish himself, while sometimes spelling him with Santana and then make the evaluation with a half season of LaPorta’s prime and theoretically only missing out on 1.5 wins. This will simultaneously give themselves the chance to complete their evaluation of LaPorta and not make a year-long financial commitment to a rental player.
In conclusion, the Indians need to ask themselves a few questions: Is Matt LaPorta completely a bust and ready to be written off? Will Pena or Kotchman be THE difference between contention and not? Will there be zero acceptable first base candidates available at the mid-point of the season? Will the resulting wins and playoff contention, coupled with the front-office admission of a failed prospect that headlined the trade that sent a huge part of the franchise away, drive financial success capable of securing core players?
If you can definitively answer “yes” to all of these questions, you have a compelling argument to sign a first-basemen. If you are unsure, or can answer “no” to any of these, you might just want to advocate keeping what we have and waiting things out. After all, you are only giving up a little more than one win and you might just be surprised with what you had in the cupboard.
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12 comments:
Send LaPorta to Columbus, have him really work out his mechanics and maybe work on his defense. Otherwise keep him around as a RH bench bat as we have so few of them.
With V-Mart hurt, the Indians should be moving closer to all in, the Tigers are wounded, blood is in the water, and it's time to strike. Obviously Fielder is off the table, but Lee or Pena would be great options (I'm really not sold on Kotchman's come back last year) give us a good defender at 1B to help out our ground ball addicted staff and should deliver some pop, even Lee right now would be offensively better than LaPorta.
"Mother, May I?"
Played that game at age 4, and didn't like it.
Antonetti is playing it now with Dolan over a measly 7 million, and
the answer was a resounding, "No."
Pena signed with Tampa Bay.
You mean to tell me your GM can't spend 7 million without getting
special permission?
What kind of organization is this?
55 years, I've been following this team, and this is the worst
situation since Rocky Colavito was traded for a fine player, Harvey Kuenn. That trade was still terrible, but this situation is beyond that. It is time for Indians' fans to cease the cynicism and start seriously demanding that this ownership sell the team.
Hear, hear!
Pena signing for $7 million in TB? There's no excuse, I could see over $10 million being an issue, but 7? I can't believe that something like 7.5 with a team option for 8.5 would have been too much for the club.
Carlos Pena wasn't ever going to be the answer for us. His numbers aren't really that impressive to begin with and he is way over priced. He strikes out way too much and has a pretty pathetic batting average only offset by his home run ability. Plus he's just another left handed bat. We should see improved power from Santana this year and if Choo is healthy that will increase our power at the plate as well. I think LaPorta should be sent to Columbus to start the year to work on putting up consistent ABs. Shelley Duncan is the logical starter out of the gates in my opinion. His age aside he has power from the right side and can play passably at first and in left. And although he is often viewed as a hacker at the plate he averages just over 4 pitches per AB which is only slightly less than Santana, Hafner and better than Cabrera.
Ok, since 2009, one Indian has posted a BB% of 12% or higher (Santana), one has hit 50 HR's (Choo), one has posted an OBP% over .350 (Choo), one has posted an ISO over .200 (Santana). Pena will beat every one of these marks this season barring catastrophic injury. Platoon him with a RH bat when needed and we could have had some really good production at 1B.
Pena was an answer and the Tribe let him get away.
If platooning him is what you would have liked then $7 mill is a ridiculous price. For $7 mil you should be getting someone to play everyday and produce. I'm not saying Pena can't put some offense up for whoever he plays for but I'm saying he wasn't ever a realistic option to significantly improve the Tribe. Duncan is only going to cost $480 k this year. So for a saving of $6.5 mil you will get a right handed bat that can put up reasonable power and decent ABs. Consider that in 247 PAs last season he hit 11 HRs with 47 RBI in 2010 with 259 ABs 11 HRs 36 RBIs. The numbers are consistent all the way back to 2007 when he made his MLB debut with the Yankees. He has never been given everyday playing time in the bigs but has shown that he can be consistent. It's not unreasonable to think that given 400+ ABs he could put up 25+ HRs. I'm not saying he is the long term solution at first but this season the free agent market was not that good and I think he gives us an affordable option that could surprise a lot of people.
No matter how much the fan base hates to admit it the Indians are a small market team with very limited revenues to work with. Last season they spent nearly 47% of all revenue on payroll and project this year to be around that mark which means they are risking more of their revenue than most other teams in the league. So spending $7 mil or however much on a short term answer at any position isn't very realistic financially.
Duncan has a career 25% K, and 9% BB and has never played well when given a decent amount of innings at 1B. Using Pena at 1B for 100+ games is better than Duncan playing at any position for 140+ games. One thing that the Indians haven't been able to do well is draw walks, Pena batting 5th behind Santana would have brought a lot of life back to the lineup. $7 mil for GG defense, real power that's proven and a guy that will draw walks? That's as solid of a buy as you get.
Occasionally toss out LaPorta or Duncan late in the game vs a tough lefty or to give Pena a day off vs a lefty and you'll get a lot of production. I understand that this is a business, but 47% of revenue on payroll? Maybe they should actually try spending more if it means putting a team on the field that's worth watching. The defense has been close your eyes awful with only a couple of bright spots in the lineup. $7 mil wouldn't break them at all.
I understand the frustration, but making rash moves in order to compete before the prospects are fully developed doesn't make sense. The decision was not a financial one, it was a strategic one. I think the Indians made the right call here. And for those who don't think management is willing to go for it, we dealt two great prospects last season for the biggest name pitcher on the market.
As far as ownership is concerned, I wouldn't advocate any of you to spend beyond your means and i cant do the same for the Dolans either. Attendance is low, they are trying to sustainably win right now, drive up attendance that way and then spend money that will make a difference. Buying Carlos Pena for one season at 7mil, 10mil or 20mil would not drive attendance. I would also argue the 2-3wins he might provide wouldn't drive attendance either.
2-3 wins could be the difference between post-season berth and watching other people's teams play. I bet if the Indians posted a near 90 win season and made it to the ALCS it would drive attendance. Of course, Pena himself probably wouldn't be enough of a difference (Carmona getting his head and name straight, Chisenhall making strides and Sizemore along with everyone else staying healthy will do more than one free agent), but it would have helped and would give fans the feeling that we were moving in the right direction.
Like I said though, $7 million wouldn't have broken the bank, the Dolan's still would have made their money. I don't usually get on the Dolan bashing bandwagon, but missing out on so many free agent targets this off season (especially when they reportedly were willing to spend $13 mil on Beltran) has been more frustration than I can take.
I'm still hoping for Derrek Lee though.
Duncan is fine in a very limited role, but once you play him more his warts start to show. I understand he had a nice finish to his season last year, but I take absolutely nothing away from that. He's a marginal ML player and is replaceable. Carlos Pena is 1000 times the player he will ever be, so given the opportunity to play and pay Pena to play first base or in a modified platoon, I'd have definitely done it, especially for just 1 year and $7.25M. The problem with Pena really came down to preference....he WANTED to go back to Tampa, so the Indians were in a tough spot there.
Still though, the going rate for a win according to Fangraph's is some where around $5 mil. Pena was a bargain signing for that little. We cannot let this off season continue to get away from us.
Any chance that a healthy Ordonez could sign with the Indians?
Ordonez is a guy I could see for sure, but doubt the Indians would extend him anything more than a non-roster invite and sign him to a minor league contract.
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