Diamonds in Single A: Jason Knapp

It is time again for another Diamonds in Single A article. This week will focus on the last player of note from the Indians fire sale at the trade deadline this year, Jason Knapp. Knapp was the headliner in the Cliff Lee deal and as early as mid-season was in the honorable mention area for Baseball America’s (BA) top prospects, which would have placed him in the 25-50 range for BA.

Knapp was a second round pick of the Phillies last year out of high school, and was signed out of a scholarship to play at power house North Carolina.  He is 6’5” and throws hard with a fastball that sits in the mid 90’s and has gotten up to 98 MPH.  He showed great control in high school, striking out 2.85 batters for every walk he issued. He is trying to develop his secondary pitches a curve and a change up, but both are works in progress though it seems the curve is the stronger pitch thus far. Being as young as he is (he just turned 19 in August), there is still plenty of time for him to work on his other pitches.

Here are Knapp's key stats from the past two seasons:

Year	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	Rook	3	1	2.61	7	31.0	1.226	7.5	0.3	3.5	11.0	3.17
2009	A	2	7	4.18	21	97.0	1.237	6.8	0.3	4.4	11.4	2.62
2 Seasons		5	8	3.80	28	128.0	1.234	7.0	0.3	4.1	11.3	2.73

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/12/2009.

I don’t include Knapp's BABIP, since it is stretched over multiple stops this year, but it is worth noting that thus far in his career it’s been 336, 316, and 324—all well above the typical average of 290. It is even rarer to see BABIP’s that are that high when a pitcher throws as hard as Knapp, as typically most players with that power are even harder to hit. This would lead most people to expect his numbers to become even better.

The big number we do see when we look at the table is Knapp's strike out rate; no pitcher we have looked at all season has been able to keep rates up that high. Alexander Perez and Nick Hagadone were able to do it in the rookie league, but no one else kept it up that high in an A league. It’s his promise in that power arm that drove the Indians to make him their target in the Lee deal, where a few scouts out there thought him a better prospect than the much more touted Kyle Drabek.

The stat that has to concern Indians fans is the rising walk rate. While this could be attributed to the shoulder fatigue Knapp suffered this year, it is always a scary sign to see walk rates go up a whole point when a pitcher faces harder competition. Control is one of the knocks on him at this point, and the stats do show it’s still an area that needs work.

On the positive side is the fact that Knapp still had an excellent WHIP in spite of the rising walks, and his WHIP was able to stay the same because while the walks were up his hit rate actually went down. If not for the fluky BABIP one would imagine a lower hit rate and an even lower WHIP. Many people might look at the ERA jump and express concern, but to be honest ERA means very little to the development of pitchers and I think most teams would take a plus 4 ERA and a WHIP in the 1.2 range then a 2 ERA and a WHIP in the 1.8 range. WHIP shows a better level of effectiveness for pitchers, especially at such a low level.

In the end, there is little doubt that Knapp is a big time talent. The big problem is that he is also a big project, with the need to develop multiple pitches and to work on his control. He should be the last of players to make it to the Indians that they acquired this year. Arms like his don’t come around often, and in the past the Indians had avoided risk players like him, but the potential is there for him to be a front of the line starter if his development continues and he stays healthy.

Posted in: Jason Knapp