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Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Indians Top 50: #5 Abner Abreu

Abner Abreu - Outfielder
Born: 10/24/1989 - Height: 6'3" - Weight: 170 - Bats: Right - Throws: Right

YearAgeTeamLvlGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAvgOBPSLGOPS
200717DSL IndiansR56228346913744118465.303.353.474.827
200818GCL IndiansR51199325016411379524.251.289.538.827
200919Lake CountyA63246367516473011683.305.351.488.839
Totals1706731021944515221083816612.288.334.498.832

History:  Abreu was signed by the Indians as an undrafted free agent in October 2006 out of the Dominican Republic.  When the Indians worked him out they loved his power potential and quickly signed him for $75,000.  As a 17-year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2007 he opened some eyes after he piled up 24 extra base hits in 228 at bats, and in 2008 with the rookie level Gulf Coast League team finished with 31 extra base hits and led the league in doubles (16), home runs (11), total bases (107) and slugging percentage (.538).  Last year at Low-A Lake County he only hit .208 with 0 HR, 3 RBI and a .532 OPS in 17 April games, but in 29 games in May hit .348 with 6 HR, 22 RBI, and a .982 OPS, and in 17 games in June hit .339 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, and a .930 OPS before his season ended due to a shoulder injury.

Strengths & Opportunities:  When the Indians signed Abreu they loved his raw ability with the bat and his loose, wiry frame.  He is an impressive athlete dripping with tools that has some of the best raw power of anyone in the entire organization.  As he grows into his big frame he has the potential to add much more strength with the chance to have plus power at the major league level.  His swing is effortless and generates excellent bat speed where he crushes balls to all fields and can hit the ball out to any part of any ballpark.  The ball just sounds different off of his bat, and he shows an innate ability to square up the baseball well when he makes contact.  He has strong hands and wrists that create a natural whip in his swing that is hard to teach, and showcases a very quick bat on inside pitches that allows him to drive the ball pull side.  He is a very aggressive hitter so is prone to strikeouts, but has shown an ability to make contact with pitches all over the zone.  For his age he recognizes pitches very well, and as he matures and moves up he is expected to get even better in this area.

Abreu's build and look is a lot like his favorite player Alfonso Soriano in that he is very lean and lanky with very long arms and legs, but even with his wiry frame he has some awesome raw power and the ball just explodes off his bat.  While he is tall and very skinny, he has a body that will allow him to gain weight and grow into it more the next few seasons.  Though his speed does not show on the bases, he is an average runner.  He is a quiet player, but is very patient, confident and a hard worker.  He also speaks good English, which helps him communicate and fit in better with his American teammates.

Not only is Abreu a gifted hitter, but he has proven to be a very versatile, gifted defender as well.  In fact, his best, most consistent tools may be his defense and throwing arm.  He came into the Indians organization as a shortstop, but they moved him to third base in 2008 with the Gulf Coast league team and he displayed some real soft hands and good range at the position.  Because of his athleticism, cannon for an arm, and powerful bat, they moved him to right field last year because they view him as an impact defender and bat at that position and he made huge strides out there for his first year at the position.  Some scouts have compared him to a young Vladimir Guerrero in the minors not only because of the promising power bat, but because of the high level of defense he plays in right field.  He shows crazy range in right field tracking down balls in the gaps or on the line with ease, and almost looks like he is gliding out there.  As he gets bigger and stronger it will probably limit the ridiculous range he has now, but he projects as a well above average defensive outfielder with excellent arm strength and accuracy.

Abreu struggled a lot the first month of last season, but the Indians believe his early struggles last year had something to do with the cold weather since it was his first experience playing in it.  Once the weather started to heat up in May and he settled in, he took off.  Another reason for the early struggles was that he was initially too geared up for the fastball, so he was slow on the curveball and left the zone too much on other pitches which resulted in him often getting himself out.  The struggles resulted in a loss of confidence and he became tentative in the early going, especially considering all the breaking balls he was seeing.  He did a poor job of recognizing pitches he could have probably driven, but after some work in the cages with him they got him to stay confident with his approach and simplified it so he would be better able to attack the right pitches.  He really began to settle in and was on his way to a monster breakout year, but in June injured his shoulder when he dove for a ball in the outfield.  He ended up separating his shoulder which resulted in season ending surgery.

While Abreu has all the tools to be a big league superstar, he is also still very raw and has yet to play at a more advanced level in High-A or Double-A which often weed out the pretenders.  He is a very aggressive hitter at the plate so he will likely always be prone to high strikeout totals and a low amount of walks.  The key going forward is not to significantly reduce the strikeouts, but to better improve his plate discipline where he can work counts a little more by being a little more patient to wait for his pitch and draw a few more walks.  Developing that plate discipline is a key attribute for him if he wishes to experience success as he moves further along in the system, and is a goal he has set for this coming season to focus on.  The Indians also made a subtle adjustment to his stance as he was standing too straight up whereas he is now leaning more forward.  He needs to work on strengthening his core and the mental side of the game without swinging a bat.  He is also just an average runner down the line and does not steal any bases, but it is felt he can improve in both of these areas.  Once he gets healthy and continues to learn his swing and strike zone he is going to be an even more special player than he already is.

Outlook:  Abreu's youth combined with his unbelievable raw power and defensive ability make him an exciting player to watch as he continues to grow as a player the next few years.  His ceiling is unlimited, and he is no doubt the most talented player in the Indians system below Double-A.  The scary part is that so many of his tools are already playing, yet he has not reached his peak physically or mentally, so much more is expected to come.  The shoulder injury he suffered last year really put a damper on what was a great year, and had he not been injured he may have gotten a lot more recognition from national publications going into this season.  He is expected to be 100% healthy this spring, and considering he only played about two months at Low-A Lake County last year he likely will return there to start the 2010 season, but should move quickly to High-A Kinston and spend the majority of his season there.

Photo courtesy of Ken Carr

Abner Abreu MinorLeagueBaseball.com page

Abner Abreu Baseball-Reference page

Abner Abreu MinorLeagueSplits.com page

Abner Abreu Hitting:

3 comments:

How do I always forget about this guy? The first 2 frames of any video with him show his athleticism, there appears to be explosion in everything he does and he pairs that with legitimate baseball skills. Power is always the last tool to come, so perhaps generating more backspin on the ball could come soon enough, but for now you have to like the length of time Abreu keeps the barrel in the zone and his bat-to-ball skill.

Which leads me to a follow up for Tony or anyone else that knows Abner better:

Was he a showcase guy growing up in the DR or was he playing in games consistently? I'm just curious if there could be a large jump in selectivity ahead, usually possible with some of the showcase studs who haven't seen enough live pitching, or if we can only hope for marginal improvement on that 5.3% BB/PA rate.

Tony,

I'm not as convinced as you regarding Abreu's prospect status.

He's obviously talented. I'm just not sure he can overcome his plate discipline issues. He didn't improve his bb% last year. And his batting average improvement may be illusory as his BABIP was an unsustainable .395.

Having said that, he only played 2 months, so I don't know how much can be inferred with so little playing time.

I take heart in your comment that he has some pitch recognition skills. That's the first step in being able to improve plate discipline.

So, while I remain somewhat sceptical, I hope to see an improved OBP this year. Additionally, it would be nice if he could cut down on his k's a little bit.


DetDawg

Good question Charlie on his showcase status...I'll try and follow up on that, but offhand I think he was a pretty highly sought Latin free agent three years ago so was in a lot of showcases.

DetDawg, I'm right there with you on the plate discipline issues. I initially had him around #10, but of any player in the system we have he was talked about the third most behind Santana and Chisenhall. I think if not for the injury last year he would have broken into high prospect status universally....but I ended up putting him up high because of my strong conviction in his ability combined with all the praise scouts from other teams have of him. The raw power and defense is very nice....hopefully the plate discipline issues are ironed out some. Talking to him this spring and some other people it appears that was his #1 focus in the offseason and will be this season. By the same token, he says he doesn't want to lose his aggressive hitting approach, so a happy medium will take time to find. It's a gamble to put him up there, yes, but of anyone to take a shot on I think he is a guy who has the stuff to live up to it.

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