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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Indians Top 50: #9 Carlos Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco - Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 03/21/1987 - Height: 6'3" - Weight: 215 - Bats: Right - Throws: Right

YearAgeTeamLvlWLERAGGSIPHERHRBBSOAVGBB/9K/9WHIP
200417GCL PhilsR543.5611848.0531921534.2762.86.41.42
200518LakewoodA177.04131362.27849112846.3024.16.71.70
200518BataviaA-0313.504415.129238512.3923.07.22.25
200518GCL PhilsR001.80225.031012.1761.83.60.80
200619LakewoodA1262.262626159.110340665159.1823.79.01.06
200720ClearwaterA+622.84121269.2492282253.1992.96.91.03
200720ReadingAA644.86141370.1653894649.2475.96.31.58
200821ReadingAA774.322019114.2109551345109.2543.58.61.35
200821Lehigh VyAAA221.726636.237711346.2503.211.41.38
200922Lehigh VyAAA695.182020114.2118661438112.2623.08.81.37
200922ColumbusAAA513.196642.131153736.1961.57.70.90
200922ClevelandMLB048.875522.1402261111.4004.54.52.31
MiLB50454.08134129738.267533575285658.2413.58.01.30
MLB048.875522.1402261111.4004.54.52.31

History:  Carrasco was signed as a 16-year old undrafted minor league free agent out of Venezuela by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2003.  The Indians acquired him as part of a four player package they received from the Phillies when they traded Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to them on July 29th, 2009.  Carrasco is a former #1 prospect in the Phillies organization and was #1 or #2 in almost every publication from 2007-2009.  Except for the last week of the Triple-A season he pitched the entire season in the International League and finished 2nd in games started (26), 2nd in innings pitched (157.0), 1st in strikeouts (148), 4th in batting average against (.245), and 2nd in K/9 (8.48) among starting pitchers.  After his final Triple-A start he was called up to Cleveland in September and made his major league debut on September 1st against the Detroit Tigers.

Strengths & Opportunities:  Carrasco has a very good three pitch mix led by a fastball that consistently comes in at 92-94 MPH and has topped out at 96 MPH.  He complements the fastball with a very good plus changeup that he commands well to both sides of the plate and has good depth and fade.  His third best pitch is a curveball which has the makings of being another plus pitch for him.  He has outstanding command of his fastball and locates it well, and it plays up a bit because of the quality of his changeup.  The fastball has good movement and late life, and he does a good job of keeping it in the strike zone.  The Indians feel his fastball-changeup-curveball mix are all major league above average pitches in the making, with the fastball and changeup already there.  He has shown an ability to strike batters out and limit the walks, and has a good, clean delivery with a good head on his shoulders.  He turns 23 years old just before the start of the season, so there certainly is still a lot of upside and projection left in him.

Carrasco's numbers in his short stint with the varsity team in Cleveland were dreadful, but he was still much better last year during his time with the Indians and in Triple-A Columbus than he was with the Phillies' Triple-A Lehigh Valley club before being acquired.  Between his time in Triple-A, Cleveland, and in winter ball last year he threw over 200 innings, but his body held up and he was as strong as ever near the end of the season.  In August he showed no wear and tear at Columbus as his fastball was consistently popping the guns at 95 MPH in the eighth inning of games.  His ability at 22 years old last season to pile up the innings and stay strong along with no significant injuries throughout his six year minor league career make him an extremely durable pitching prospect.

While Carrasco displays very good mound presence and executes his pitches well, things tend to go downhill quickly for him when runners reach base and a few hits are strung together against him.  His numbers have yet to truly back up his excellent stuff and potential because of his age mostly because he always seems to have that one disastrous inning every time out.  Going all the way back to rookie ball, he has a tendency for making bad situations worse where all the damage against him tends to occur in one inning because he turns one run innings into three or four run innings.  His one inning meltdowns have resulted in many scouts giving him the "soft" label because he is unable to battle and get himself out of jams.  The Indians are aware of this issue and feel that his troubles pitching out of jams is something he will in time learn to manage.  He was able to power his way through the lower levels of the minors on his stuff alone, so he is just now realizing the importance of adjustments within innings and in at bats and is something they will try to expedite this coming season by getting him to be more consistent outing to outing, inning to inning, and pitch to pitch.  Bottom line, it is all about learning to avoid the big inning, handling adversity, and being more consistent with his stuff.

Carrasco also has a tendency at times to overthrow, which results in his ball flattening out and him getting hit hard.  This was evident in his callup to Cleveland where his emotions were all over the place and he was over-throwing, and the result was 40 hits and 6 home runs in just 22.2 innings over five starts.  He also tends to lose his release point on his curveball at times so needs to be more consistent with that.  He needs to get better at getting right-handed hitters out more consistently as they touched him up some with the big hit (1.17 HR/9 in AAA).  Teams run on him pretty easily, so controlling the running game may be the final thing he does to polish himself off, and it likely will be one of his main goals at Triple-A Columbus to start the season.  Last, he has never really put up a very good statistical season during any of his time at Double-A, Triple-A or the big leagues the last three years except for his initial callup to Triple-A in 2008 which was just six starts, so his lack of good performance above the High-A level is concerning.

Outlook:  With his powerful pitch mix, intelligence, and desire the sky is the limit for Carrasco.  He certainly has the weapons and talent to compete at the major league level, now it is just whether or not he can make the transition and pitch there.  The Indians will be patient with him as they know there will be a lot of growing pains still as he continues to make that transition to being a big league pitcher.  They know that when they acquired him he was extremely talented but also still very unpolished.  They feel he is a good arm who has the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter - or better - for the next six to seven years.  He will compete in spring training for a spot in the big league rotation, but is not expected to make the team and instead begin the season at Triple-A Columbus for more seasoning and to finish him off as a pitcher so when he finally does get the call sometime in 2010 it is for good.

Photo courtesy of Ken Carr

Carlos Carrasco MinorLeagueBaseball.com page

Carlos Carrasco Baseball-Reference page

Carlos Carrasco MinorLeagueSplits.com page

Carlos Carrasco Pitching:
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=3132947

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