2010 Draft Preview: The Batters

With the draft less than a month away it seems like Indians fans are hearing a lot of names in connection with the #5 pick, but at this point I don’t think the Indians front office is really dead set on anyone. The reason for this is unlike even last year, after the Top 2 players there is viewed to be a drop off and then a leveling off of talent. Many players could honestly go anywhere from 5 to 25 in this draft without anyone calling it a reach or a steal.

Since there are so many names tied to the Tribe, I thought that I could do a two part article on the various names I have read connected to the 5th pick.  There are two players I will be shocked if they are available when the Tribe picks and that’s junior college catcher Bryce Harper and Texas prep pitcher Jameson Taillon. They are the consensus Top 2 players in this draft and barring injury it would be a shock to see either one fall to the Tribe. If you were grading players on a 1-5 star rating, in terms of overall package they would be the only 5 stars in this draft.

Here are some profiles of the bats that could be possible targets for the Tribe with their first pick, from least likely to be taken to most likely:

The first player is one who has risen very recently on some boards, Ball State’s Kolbrin Vitek. Vitek is a second basemen who also happens to be a solid pitcher. He would warrant being a selection in the first 10 rounds just based on his arm, but it is his bat that will net him a first round selection. He might have played mostly second base in college, but he profiles as a possible 3B or OF in the majors. Vitek has excellent speed and could profile out in centerfield, and along with that speed he has shown solid to good power in college. The speed and power combo has piqued the interest of a lot of teams and has caused Vitek to join the helium club in terms of fast risers of late. The question that will decide how early Vitek gets drafted is if his power is thought to be a plus tool. He has shown a lot of power leading his team in homers and doubles, while also leading them in innings pitched. He has shown the power potential even with all the extra work on his body this year, and if a team believes he has plus power then Vitek is a Top 10 player. While Vitek has a ton of helium right now thanks to his great year, I think the Tribe had enough bad luck with a toolsy Ball State player in the past. Still, there are a few more weeks for Vitek to rise even more, and two weeks from now he should be even higher rated.

The next player up is Florida prep SS Manny Machado. The reason I have him next, is I don’t think the Indians would take a high school bat this high, it goes against everything they have done in the last five years. Also when you add the fact that there is a very good chance that Machado goes in the Top 4 picks, it is hard to see him going to the Tribe anyway. Machado is a consensus Top 5 player in this draft and the top prep position player in the draft. Some reports have graded his arm at SS as a 70 on the 20-80 scale, and he seems like a player who will be able to stick at short. The ARod comps are overblown and while Machado has had an excellent senior year, he has no where near the buzz that ARod had when he came out of school. This year he really exploded onto the scene and made everyone take notice, and if you’re a fan of Machado you see a slick fielder, with power, and excellent bat speed. The issue with Machado is that he is raw at this point, that everything with him is just projection. Teams love what they see but, as the Rays learned with Tim Beckham, super athletic shortstops can sometimes look better than they really are. He is a very unlikely pick for the Tribe, based on their own approach to the draft, but his talent does warrant a Top 5 pick.

Now we are getting into the guys who I think are the main five bats the Tribe are considering. Christian Colon is a SS from Cal State Fullerton whose real strength seems to be in being able to do everything well. His defense has always been solid; when he was coming out of high school he was considered the best defensive SS in the country. He has shown some power in college, and really has an excellent eye at the plate. He rarely seems to strike out and when he does get on base he has the instincts of an excellent base stealer. His game offensively reminds me a bit of Omar Vizquel in that he would be an ideal fit for a two- hole, which is where he hits in college. He can get on base, steal bases, and also advance runners. Colon is a player a lot of scouts are luke warm on. He has never been a sexy prospect, but he continues to produce, improve, and show the ability to get better. He was the best bat on the Team USA college team even though he was among more heralded bats, but he just went out and preformed. It's hard to not like Colon, and the more you look at him the more he seems like a guy who is just keeps proving everyone wrong. Colon’s advanced bat up the middle would make him an ideal fit to fill what might be the organizations biggest weakness depth wise, but then again if you’re the Tribe do you want to spend the 5th pick on a guy whose upside might just be Asdrubal Cabrera. I love Cabrera, but with a Top 5 pick I think teams want a bit more splash potential.

Michael Choice from the Texas-Arlington University is a player who is very hard to evaluate. The reason is he has played against such a weaker competition and plays in such a weak line up that teams have gone out of their away to avoid letting him beat them. At first glance it looks like he has elite plate discipline then you look deeper and see he leads college baseball in intentional walks. While his walk numbers look good with out the free passes, it is hard to really say if it is a plus skill or not. What is not for debate with Choice is his power. He has legit 80 power on the 20-80 scale. In terms of guys with that raw power your looking at the Ryan Howard’s of the world. I have read his batting practice sessions are more fun to watch than the games themselves. The question for the Tribe, is the power enough to risk the pick on an unproven player? Power is one of those skills a mid market team must grow because they can’t sign elite power bats in free agency. More often then not those players are too cost prohibitive for a team like the Indians to sign. There in lies the value of Choice to a team like the Tribe. His power is tantalizing, but he is very boom or bust. I mean if his best projection is a Ryan Howard type in terms of power, his middle projection would be Jack Cust and his worst outcome would be he never gets out of A ball.

Next up is the second best Bryce in this draft, Bryce Brentz of Middle Tennessee State. Brentz put up the best numbers of any batter in college baseball last year, but has been limited this year thanks to injuries. Brentz displays great power and excellent bat speed. He has a solid arm and projects out as an average defender as a corner outfielder. He has no below average skills and has shown the ability to be at least average in all facets of the game. I know he sounds great, so why aren’t the Indians all over him? Well first off injuries always hurt draft stock.  Look no further than Kyle Gibson last year who fell in the draft thanks to injury and has since then obliterated minor league batters. Brentz's injury cost him four weeks and he had to reprove himself. The other issue is he can be a bit of a pull hitter, and while he has good power and bat speed his approach as a hitter will need some refinement. The output for him has been great in college and for the Team USA college squad he hit very well but failed to produce much power. Outside of Choice, Brentz also seems to have the best power in this draft which is huge for him as this is a pitcher heavy draft that seems to lack power bats. Brentz's name should continue to rise as the draft approaches and is a name to remember in connection with the Tribe thanks to a solid around skill set that has dominated the college ranks.

Zach Cox of Arkansas is a player who has risen this year in spite of the many detractors, and is a name that has divided scouts this year. Some see a guy who lacks power and can’t play 3B, others see a possible 2B who will hit for a high average and give you 25-30 home runs. The consensus at this point, if there is one, seems to be that Cox should be able to play third base in the pros and be a solid contributor. His bat is a no doubt plus skill and could even end up being a plus plus skill. He is the best pure hitter in the draft and his hitting ability compares positively to Anthony Rendon who right now seems to be the favorite to be the first pick next year. There are scouts that prefer Rendon to Harper, which says a lot about just how good of a natural hitter Cox is. Cox's name just continues to rise even though he hasn’t shown a ton of power his bat speaks for itself. He seems to be a player who is a safe bet to make it to the majors, be a solid batter, and play league average defense. The question though is where do you draft the best hitter in the draft when he might lack the power that most teams want at third base? Some one on the IPI site boards talked about his upside comp being Michael Young, can you accept those numbers from third base, and can you forfeit that power? If no then there is little chance that Cox is a member of the Tribe come June.

The bat that seems the most likely to be drafted by the Tribe is Yasmani Grandal (pictured), a catcher from the University of Miami. There is a lot to like with it comes to Grandal as he is a switch hitter, has a great arm behind the plate, is a plus defender, and has shown power. Grandal struggled at first to adjust to the college game, but he righted himself and has had a dominating junior year. His bat has been on fire all year, and against some of the top pitchers in college baseball he has proven himself. The baseball draft is the one draft where you don’t draft with any regards to your current MLB team. I know Carlos Santana is a young star who should be with this team for years, but if Grandal turns out to be a gold glove version of Victor Martinez - his best outcome - then he could also be flipped to help out the MLB team or someone could be moved to another position. In a best case situation a player like Grandal is about 1.75 seasons from getting anywhere near the majors. The reason I think he is the most likely bat to be selected is he won’t be a hard sign, plays a value position, and is a very good hitter and defender. The lower levels of the Tribe system don’t have much catching depth and I think that would also be a bonus reason why Grandal will be under strong consideration by the Tribe brass. I will say this, I doubt that Grandal doesn’t go in the Top 10 and he is the only guy I am 100% sure of saying that for outside of Machado in this review.

Posted in: Bryce Brentz,Christian Colon,Kolbrin Vitek,Mann Machado,Michael Choice,Yasmani Grandal,Zach Cox