Also, the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft is quickly approaching and is less than three weeks away (Monday June 7th). The site will soon become involved with the draft by posting a few pre-draft articles. Once the draft starts you will get no better instant analysis of the picks as they come in than right here, and there will also be tons of post-draft analysis and firsthand scouting info provided from talks with the Indians or scouts around the league.
Onto the Inbox...
Brent W. wrote: What are your feelings on the upcoming draft? Do you feel the tribe will look for an offensive player or take another starter?
Me: The draft is a little less than three weeks away. At the moment the Indians do not have one specific kind of player targeted with their first round pick, which is fifth overall. They obviously have a lot of pitching depth in the organization and several high upside starters. The strength of the organization is their pitching, so it appears that they could use some high upside hitters in the early rounds of the draft.
That said, they won’t draft based on need at least in the early rounds as it will be best player available, especially with that No. 5 overall pick. Outside of catcher Bryce Harper (pictured), there doesn’t appear to be a consensus overall hitting prospect worthy of a selection that high, so unless Harper somehow slips to them (they would no doubt take him if he fell to them) it is probably a pretty safe bet that they will take another pitching prospect with their first pick. Who that may be is anyone’s guess at the moment as they could go the prep or college route, but I think it could be one of these pitchers: A.J. Cole (RHP), Deck McGuire (RHP), Drew Pomeranz (LHP), Anthony Ranaudo (RHP), Chris Sale (LHP), Jameson Taillon (RHP), or Karsten Whitson (RHP). If I had to guess, my gut feeling is it will be a prep pitcher which would mean they take one of Cole, Taillon or Whitson.
I also get the vibe that signability issues will not be much of a concern. If a guy like Harper were to fall to them, or they really liked a prep guy who may be leaning toward college, I believe they would take them. They know that even if they were not to sign these players that they would get a compensation pick in next year’s draft at the exact same pick, so the risk would be warranted to take a gamble on a high profile guy and try to sign him knowing they can fall back on getting the same pick next year.
Terry wrote: Michael Brantley is back in the minor leagues. Matt LaPorta, Justin Masterson, and Lou Marson are struggling in the majors. Rob Bryson is in Single-A. Brian Price is struggling. We fear Nick Hagadone and Jason Knapp will turn into Adam Miller. So what exactly did the Indians get when trading two Cy Young Award winners and an All-Star catcher?
Me: I actually think the return on Victor was good. Masterson at some point this season or next will move back to a pen role which is where he has done well before and where he ultimately will excel. Also, Hagadone is finally having the leash cut so to speak and is pitching well and should spend a good portion of the season in Akron where I think he gets promoted to around the All Star break. Price, well, he was the third guy in that trade, so I am not too broken up about him yet though think he will be better in the long run and still has major league stuff.
As for the CC and Lee trades, it certainly is debatable on how good the trades were. At the moment the CC trade is looking just okay at best, maybe even worse, with LaPorta struggling and Brantley struggling a little this year in Cleveland, but I think long term both will be solid major leaguers. Brantley is still adjusting and LaPorta seems to be playing through injury still, and Brantley has settled down and is playing very well in Columbus right now. We'll see, but if you were to grade the trade right now I agree it certainly looks bad at the moment. That said, I still think we need to wait another year or two to properly evaluate the CC trade.
The Lee deal I am still kind of fine with and think it is better than most people think. I also think it is way too soon to even evaluate the trade until we see what the players received do in the majors for an extended period of time the next year or two. In just comparing the players the Indians got for Lee to what the Phillies got for Lee in their trade with the Mariners, it is no comparison as we got the better haul. Donald is looking like the everyday second baseman of the future and Carlos Carrasco still has a lot of potential as a solid middle-of the-rotation big league starter. Marson has been a disappointment, but I think he is a major league catcher but just as a backup. If they get an everyday second baseman, middle of the rotation starter, and a backup catcher at the big league level for the next five to six years, that’s a solid trade. The wildcard is Knapp, as if he ultimately reaches his potential and reaches the big leagues in two to three years, he makes it a very good trade. But like I said, we need more time to evaluate the trade before making snap judgments either way.
Matt wrote: At this point in time, who do the Indians think is their closer for next year and beyond? Chris Perez comes to mind almost immediately, but I wonder how much faith they have in that plan. Who are the other candidates? Jensen Lewis? Adam Miller? Josh Judy? Nick Hagadone?
Me: This is a good question. The Indians don’t typically develop pitchers in the minors to be closers, so it is always hard to tell who may fill such a role in the near future. My guess is either Chris Perez is the closer in 2011 and beyond or they pick up a veteran in a trade or in free agency and fill that need like they did with Bob Wickman, Joe Borowski, and Kerry Wood for the better part of the past decade.
As for internal candidates who could eventually find themselves in the mix, the first two that come to mind are right-handers Zach Putnam and Josh Judy. Both have closer stuff and the right makeup to handle such a demanding role if they are thrust into it. Right-handers Bryan Price and Alex White are two others who could factor into such a role, especially White if the starting rotation doesn’t work out for him though he will get every opportunity to succeed there. Nick Hagadone is certainly another option because of his stuff and makeup, but he provides more value as a front of the rotation starter so they are going to give him every opportunity to succeed as a starter. Right-hander Vinnie Pestano has an outside shot at the gig too, something he is very experienced at doing as he closed in college and has closed for a majority of his minor league career.
Really, there are a lot of potential closer types in the system from Triple-A all the way to rookie ball as they have a lot of power arms in the system now, so it will be interesting if they can find a young arm to plug into the role for the next five to six years. Developing a young closer to install at the backend of the big league bullpen is something that has alluded them really since the Jacobs Field-era began in 1994. They have just never been able to find or develop a young closer to build a bullpen around.
James D. wrote: I was showing off my level of knowledge of the Rule 5 draft gained from reading your site and took it a step farther and dropped the fact the AA is known for its hitting and High Single-A is known as pitching heavy. I was then asked why and my ignorance was exposed. Is it just the Eastern League or all AA leagues that are hitter heavy, and why? Same with the Carolina League? Am I completely mistaken?
Me: Actually High-A and Double-A really have no relation at all, and neither is pitching or hitting friendly. Double-A is probably the most true level of minor league competition where most of the top prospects closest to the big leagues are playing. Also, save for a few exceptions, Double-A also does not have any minor league veterans (4A players) playing at that level or former big leaguers looking to hang onto their career, two things common in Triple-A which dilutes the talent level and competion.
But, Double-A is not really a pitching or hitting heavy level, it is usually pretty well balanced. Also, the High-A level in general is not necessarily a pitching heavy level as well. It is the respective leagues within each level which create that perception. The Carolina League (High-A), where Kinston plays, is a notorious pitchers league because of the big spacious ballparks whereas in the California League (High-A) the ballparks are mostly bandboxes so offense is prominent. This is the same thing in Triple-A with the bandboxes in the Pacific Coast League (hence a hitters league) compared to the more neutral hitting sites in the International League (where Columbus plays).
So, no, a particular level is not a hitting or pitching heavy level as they are all really the same. It's the leagues and ballparks that make the respective league more pitching or hitting friendly and create that label.
Brian F. wrote: Why release Scott Lewis?
Me: In a nutshell, Lewis is all but done. Recurring bicep and forearm pain which came about and put him on the disabled list in late April was the last straw for the Indians. It was the same issue that sidelined him all last offseason and has sidelined him intermittently throughout his career. He has tried everything over the last seven years and the pain continues, and apparently with his latest setback and the bullpen sessions he was throwing, the Indians decided to pull the plug and felt he was done.
When Lewis is able to go out there and pitch, he is a good pitcher. The problem was he could no longer stay on the mound and was always pitching with pain this year and last year. The Indians may have done him a favor as if he still wants to pitch and get another shot elsewhere, he can get a head start on that considering he is a free agent. Still, I'd be surprised if he ever pitches for another team, and the career may be over. That’s too bad, as he is a good guy, an Ohio guy at that, and a very good pitcher who had big league ability. Like we have seen with so many other players, injuries quite often are a career killer.
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8 comments:
I for one won't really judge any of the trades until top-line prospects we got actually play 2-3 full seasons. Since most major league players don't hit baseball and perform great right away. It seems ridiculous to judge Michael Brantley who is only 22 based on a basically three week stretch at the beginning of this season.
What are the odds though that Harper will be deemed 'unsignable' and drop to the 5th pick in the draft?
Do you know anything about Vicmar De La Cruz? It appears that the Indians have been in contact and are "supposedly" willing to give him 7 figures in a deal. I can't seem to find anything about him.
Barring something completely unforseen happening, Harper is going #1. No doubt. In the event the end of the world did happen and he slid to #5, the Indians of course would take him (as would the other four teams in front of them).
Chengy, I completely agree with you. For some perspective, what do you think people felt about the Bartolo Colon trade in May 2003, just less than a year after the deal like we are now now with the Lee deal. Or how did people perceive the Colon trade in May 2004, just less than two years after the trade like we are with the Sabathia trade. Heck, in May 2004 Grady Sizemore was still in Triple-A, Cliff Lee was still breaking in as a rookie, and Brandon Phillips was banished to Triple-A. Yet, here we are 8 years after the deal and many consider it one of Shapiro's best if not his best trade.
I know nothing about Vicmar De La Cruz offhand, but am checking into some info on him. The rumor is legit about the 7 figure offer, but don't get too excited as they have never landed a 7-figure guy before though have offered several players in the past a 7-figure bonus.
Sorry about double posting I thought I didn't send the first one.
It is hard for me to be excited for Vicmar De La Cruz. I know literally nothing besides he is a Latino Free Agent. Is he a pitcher or a position player? I have no idea. I just can't get excited given that I know nothing.
And I think that no doubt the Bartolo Colon trade was the best trade he has made so far. A three-time All-star face of the franchise, a Cy Young, and another player who is the face of the franchise in another city. If we get any of those first two in any of these deals I will be very satisfied.
I have also heard that there is some interest in Kolbrin Vitek from Ball State. He is also an Ohio native, always nice.
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