Indians 40-man Review: Who Do They Add?

Will the Indians roster Corey Kluber? We'll
find out soon. (Photo: Tony Lastoria)

The November 19th roster deadline is quickly approaching for all teams in Major League Baseball.

It is a time of the year when teams set their offseason rosters by adding players off the 60-day disabled list back to the active 40-man roster and add their important players from their minor league system that are up for roster protection. Once the November 19th date passes, any player in the organization who is not protected on the 40-man roster is eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft in December. (For the specifics on what makes a player eligible for roster protection or what the Rule 5 Draft is go to the FAQ.)

While often ignored by the mainstream media and a majority of the fans, the offseason roster process is very important as teams finalize their plans for the offseason and setup a roster for the upcoming 2011 season. In addition, for the players involved in the process it is a huge deal to be added to the 40-man roster. While a player who is added to the 40-man roster can be optioned to the minors for three years or can be removed at any time, it's their biggest step to date in their quest to make the big leagues and a necessary one in order to get that "shot" in the near future.

To the players it is a very stressful time filled with a lot of hope and anxiety. It’s not just for the bump in pay and a legit chance maybe coming their way, but also for a feeling of accomplishment for what they have done in the minor leagues and that they have value and have been noticed. Since only about 10% of any drafted player ever reaches the big leagues, getting rostered means everything because so few ever get that chance.

The Indians recently completed a roster upheaval by removing the likes of Hector Ambriz, Luke Carlin, Chris Gimenez, Wes Hodges, Chad Huffman, Andy Marte, Anthony Reyes, Carlos Rivero, and Drew Sutton from the 40-man roster. After the moves the Indians current 40-man roster stands at 35 players under club control in 2011.

Though there are a handful of players on the roster who could still be removed, the Indians are likely done for now with roster removals prior to the November 19th roster deadline. Some of the players still hanging around who probably should be removed - such as Justin Germano and Shelley Duncan - will be around as the first options to remove in the event the Indians acquire a player via trade or free agency this offseason. Remember, Chris Gimenez was kept on the 40-man last November, but was later removed when they signed Russell Branyan as a free agent in February.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at the players in the Indians minor league system that are eligible for roster protection and the likelihood any are added.

Pitchers: Hector Ambriz, Paolo Espino, Jose Flores, Connor Graham, Nick Hagadone, Josh Judy, Corey Kluber, Kyle Landis, Zach McAllister, Adam Miller, Ryan Morris, Yohan Pino, Danny Salazar, Carlton Smith, Steven Wright.

Catchers: Doug Pickens

Infielders: Juan Aponte, Jared Goedert, Jerad Head, Wes Hodges, Beau Mills, Ronald Rivas, Josh Rodriguez, Karexon Sanchez

Outfielders: John Drennen, Chad Huffman, Matt McBride, Preston Mattingly, Jason Smit

(Note, some not included like Jose Constanza are minor league free agents and if they were going to be rostered they very likely would have been prior to the November 7th free agency date, so they likely won't be rostered.)

As you can see the Indians are not in as much of a roster crunch as they have been in years past, though a lot of this is because they already rostered several Rule 5 eligible players over the course of the 2010 season. There are some good players still left on the list, but not as many for sure adds as in previous years.

I've whittled down the list into three groups below based on perceived odds to be added: locks, maybes, and doubtfuls.

Locks

Nick Hagadone: Left-handed pitcher
2010 stats: 3-5, 3.57 ERA, 29 G, 85.2 IP, 72 H, 7 HR, 63 BB, 89 K, 1.00 GO/AO, .226 AVG

Hagadone, 24, had a so-so year based on his standing as one of the Indians top pitching prospects as a lot more was expected out of him in 2010, and he will even tell you straight out he expected a lot more from himself as well. Even with the substandard year, there is no denying his talent. Lefties who throw 98-99 MPH cheese with a plus breaking ball do not grow on trees, and for that fact alone he will be rostered. He's one of the more valued players in the Indians organization by scouts from other teams and was also a key piece acquired in the Victor Martinez trade with the Red Sox in July 2009. The Indians have a need for left-handed relief in the near future, and he more than fits that bill and is very valuable. His disappointing year centered around his high walk total, but command is often considered the last thing that returns when a pitcher is recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he is expected to be better in that department in 2011.

Corey Kluber: Right-handed pitcher
2010 stats: 9-9, 3.49 ERA, 29 GS, 160.0 IP, 169 H, 8 HR, 56 BB, 165 K, 0.89 GO/AO, .275 AVG

Kluber, 24, was the player the Indians obtained in the July 31st trade earlier this year that sent Jake Westbrook to the St. Louis Cardinals, so because of that trade he already has value to the organization because of what they gave up for him. He is viewed by the organization as a legit starting pitching alternative in 2011, so much so, that President Mark Shapiro even named him in his letter to season ticketholders this offseason. You don't go mentioning an unknown like Kluber unless he is truly in your future plans, and with that he looks to be a lock. From a stuff standpoint he is not too flashy as he has a solid four pitch mix led by an average to above average fastball, but he is a strike thrower who is a durable, strong, physical starting pitcher that has all of the attributes to be an innings eater in the big leagues, something the big league rotation is in dire need of.

Maybes

Josh Judy: Right-handed pitcher
2010 stats: 3-0, 2.94 ERA, 40 G, 49.0 IP, 54 H, 5 HR, 14 BB, 57 K, 0.56 GO/AO, .278 AVG

About eight months ago back in big league spring training Judy, 24, looked everything like a lock to be added to the 40-man roster sometime during the 2010 season or in the offseason. Teams simply don't invite minor league players to big league camp unless it is written in their contract or they are considered a legit option to help the team that coming year. While he may still be rostered, he is not as much of a sure thing as he was eight months ago. This is due to an injury he had at the start of the season which set him back about six weeks and kept him from getting on a roll until July, but also because during that time some other relief options presented themsevles - namely Frank Herrmann and Vinnie Pestano - who leapt over him and were added to the 40-man roster. He's a talented reliever with backend bullpen abilities, but because of so many relievers already on the 40-man roster it makes him more of a probable than a lock.

Adam Miller: Right-handed pitcher
2010 stats: Did not pitch

Miller, who turns 26 in two weeks, is healthy again and pitching off a mound. The fact he can even pitch again is amazing considering all of the trials and tribulations he and the Indians have been through with his finger the last three years. The Indians actually consider him a legit option for the big league bullpen next year, something other teams are well aware of without me saying it as they scouted him in Instructional League and saw for themselves. The question for other teams and the Indians still comes down to his durability as he has not pitched the last two seasons and has under 100 innings over the last four seasons.  Could he break down again? Yes. But would you want to risk all that time and effort to get your former top prospect back into pitching form only to see him scooped up by another team in the Rule 5 Draft as a $50K gamble in order to audition him in the spring and then have him prove to be healthy? Heck no.

Zach McAllister: Right-handed pitcher
2010 stats: 9-12, 5.29 ERA, 27 GS, 149.2 IP, 185 H, 21 HR, 45 BB, 99 K, 0.79 GO/AO, .307 AVG

McAllister, who turns 23 next month, is another recent player acquired in a trade, one the Indians picked up in mid-August this year as the player to be named later in the Austin Kearns deal with the Yankees. He is young and has a high prospect pedigree as a 3rd round draft pick out of high school in 2006 and was ranked by Baseball America as the Yankees #5 prospect going into this past season, but he struggled this year at Triple-A and was very inconsistent all year. He’s a command/control specialist with a two-seam fastball that sits 87-91 MPH and also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, with the slider being his best pitch and an above average offering. He projects as a back of the rotation starter, and since these kind of starters are rarely taken in the Rule 5 Draft and he lacks the overpowering stuff as a reliever, the Indians may pass on rostering him. He reminds me a lot of Josh Tomlin, who by the way was not rostered after the 2009 season and went undrafted in the Rule 5 Draft last December.

Jared Goedert: Infielder
2010 stats: .283 AVG, 80 R, 37 2B, 1 3B, 27 HR, 83 RBI, 53 BB, 112 K, .890 OPS

Goedert, 25, had a heck of a comeback season in 2010 where he split his season at Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. He fizzled some late in the year hitting just .222 with a .716 OPS in 22 games in August and then .130 with a .374 OPS in six games in September. The late season slide at the plate to go along with his below average defense at third base are why he never got a call to Cleveland late in the year. He went out to Venezuela this offseason and played well hitting .333 with a .918 OPS in 14 games and is now home for the winter. While out in Venezuela he played some first base in an effort to add to his versatility to where he could maybe be a right-handed corner utility player who can play third base, first base, and left field. The Indians have a need for some right-handed pop in their lineup, but because of Goedert's lack of a position at the big league level they may opt to leave him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft with the feeling that he goes unselected or even if selected he is offered back to them next spring.

Josh Rodriguez: Infielder
2010 stats: .297 AVG, 60 R, 30 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 51 BB, 85 K, 6 SB, .862 OPS

Rodriguez, who turns 26 next month, had a comeback year similar to that of Goedert this past season. Both were two of the organization's top infield prospects after the 2007 season, but each went through two rough years in 2008 and 2009 due to performance and injury reasons before jumping back onto the scene in 2010 with good campaigns. Rodriguez is versatile where he can play third base, shortstop, second base, and even a little outfield. His best position is shortstop, which is a must for a utility player, and why he has value to the Indians as a utility option next year. When you add in the pop in his bat and his prospect pedigree as a former 2nd round draft pick in 2006, there could be some value to other teams and this is why the Indians may ultimately decide to roster him.

Doubtfuls

There are few players left on the eligible list who look to have any shot to be rostered. The reasons are various, but mostly center around value, talent, performance, and skill set. A player like Connor Graham is still too inconsistent with the strike zone, while players like John Drennen, Jerad Head and Paolo Espino are buried in a system deep with outfield and pitching depth.

Of those remaining who appear to get any consideration, only Matt McBride may get consideration; however, his chances are very slim and even less than they were last year. Considering he was not rostered last November after the great 2009 season he had and subsequent great performance in the Arizona Fall League, it looks very unlikely for things to be any different for him this offseason.

Conclusion

Contrary to what I previously believed, once the Indians figure out their 25-man roster they will fill in the rest of the 40-man roster with the best eligible players. What this means is they do not allocate a certain number of spots on the 40-man to each position on the team, and knowing that it is possible they could end up with a 40-man roster consisting of 24 pitchers and 16 position players this offseason.  What this means is if they feel the best four to five players to roster are pitchers, then all the roster decisions will be pitchers.

The Indians are at least going to roster four players. The question is whether or not they roster a fifth player as they need to decide if they want to leave a spot open to be able to add a free agent or Rule 5 pick or just fill every spot on the 40-man now.

Since it is not expected that they will sign a free agent to a guaranteed Major League contract this offseason, I’m going to go with the assumption that they won't need the roster spot open for a signing. Also, if the need does arise - be it in free agency or the Rule 5 Draft - I think there is still enough roster fodder around to remove a player if needed without having to worry about losing anyone of consequence.

So with all that in mind, the four players I predict the Indians will almost certainly roster are Nick Hagadone, Josh Judy, Corey Kluber, and Adam Miller. The fifth is a tough one, but I predict they go the route they went with not rostering Josh Tomlin and Yohan Pino last year and do the same this year with Zach McAllister by not rostering him. The last spot to me comes down to Jared Goedert and Josh Rodriguez, and I’ll go with Rodriguez due to his versatility and a need in the middle infield especially after losing Carlos Rivero on waivers last week.

It's not a for certain bunch, as last year there were a few surprises with Wes Hodges and Carlos Rivero being rostered, so we may be in store for another surprise or two this year.  Plus, Miller is the wildcard as he may not be rostered and they instead roster McAllister or Goedert.

We’ll find out for certain on November 19th.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI.  His latest book the 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is also available for purchase on his site for a special year end closeout sale of $10.00 (including shipping and handling).

Posted in: Adam Miller,Corey Kluber,Jared Goedert,Josh Judy,Josh Rodriguez,Matt McBride,Nick Hagadone,Zach McAllister