DRAFT DAY IS UPON US!!!!!

Well folks, it’s draft day. The Indians’ drafts under John Mirabelli have never been crazy and now he is turning the reigns over to Brad Grant. In an interview last winter Mirabelli indicated that he would still have significant input into who the Indians selected in the first 5 rounds or so. Given the influence that he still holds, I expect to see what we have seen from Mirabelli before: draft college talent in the first 3 or 4 rounds and then who knows. His achilles heel seems to be rounds 2-6 where he sometimes goes against conventional wisdom and even when he doesn't really go against the grain he still tends to pick the wrong guy. In later rounds he has shined above and beyond what other scouting directors do.

To kick this off I wanted to present a couple of lists. Two of my draft premises are to beware of guys who have jumped up draft boards during the year and to find bargains on guys who have fallen down draft boards compared to where they were early this spring. The logic behind this is that teams seem to over-value recent performance and undervalue the entire body of work that a player presents. My thought is the guys who have dropped may be really good later round (after the first 3 rounds) values and guys who have shot up draft boards should not be drafted at their newest value but somewhere closer to their early season value…at least in most cases. So here are lists of guys who may currently be over-valued and under-valued using Baseball America’s rankings as a guide:

Potentially Under-valued (significantly lower ranking than this spring)

Harold Martinez 6’3” SS Florida high school
Michael Pallazzone 6’3” RHP Georgia high school
Cecil Tanner 6’6” LHP Georgia high school
Jarret Martin 6’1” 1B California high school
Rolando Gomez 5’9” SS Florida high school
Matt Lollis 6’7” RHP California high school
Derrik Gibson 6’0” SS Delaware high school
B. J. Hermsen 6’6” RHP Iowa high school
Scott Silberstein 6’5” LHP Washington DC high school
Jacob Thompson 6’6” LHP Virginia
Preston Guilmet 6’2” LHP Arizona
Ryan Hinson 6’2” LHP Clemson
Stephen Porlier 6’3” RHP Oklahoma (injured)
Evan Crawford 6’2” LHP Auburn
Dan Hudson 6’4” RHP Old Dominion

Potentially over-valued (significantly higher ranking than this spring)

Anthony Hewitt SS CT high school
Tyler Sample RHP CO high school
Seth Lintz RHP TN high school
Zach Cone OF GA high school
Brad Hand LHP MN high school
Brandon Miller C GA high school
Wade Miley LHP Southeast Louisiana
Stephen Fife RHP Utah
Carlos Gutierrez RHP Miami
David Cooper 1B California
Jordy Mercer SS/RHP Oklahoma St.
Brad Holt RHP UNC Wilmington

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