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Thursday, July 21, 2011

IPI Inbox: Indians have lots of candidates for bullpen

C.C. Lee could be a bullpen option for the
Indians really soon in Cleveland (Photo: IPI).
It is time for another IPI Inbox to talk about some of the questions from the minors to the big leagues that Indians fans have asked of late. These are all questions I have received of late via e-mail or on my Twitter page (@TonyIPI).

If you have a question on anything pertaining to the Cleveland Indians from the minors to the big leagues that you would like answered in a future inbox, feel free to contact me. I also pull from questions in the comments sections in articles, and also from Twitter, so you can post your question there as well.

To the IPI Inbox we go.....

Chad L. wrote: Since C.C. Lee is tearing it up in AAA, who do you think will be the first person demoted out of the bullpen if they bring him up before the roster expansion September 1st?

Me: Chen is actually not the next reliever in line for a promotion at Triple-A Columbus. That designation belongs to right-handers Josh Judy and Zach Putnam. Judy is the short term fill in option when the Indians need an arm for short stretches, but once they make a long term move this season for the bullpen the player added will very likely be Putnam. Since he is not on the 40-man roster a player would surely have to be removed, likely the reliever he replaces in Cleveland, someone like right-hander Chad Durbin.

The Indians have deemed Putnam big league ready since early June, but an opportunity has yet to present itself with the bullpen in Cleveland pitching so well. He will likely be a September callup unless Frank Herrmann or Durbin struggle, an injury occurs, or the Indians trade one of their big league relievers to get a bat (a legit possibility), which would then result in his call up coming sooner. With Joe Smith and Rafael Perez both getting expensive and nearing free agency the Indians may decide to strike on one of them while the iron is hot and to fill a need elsewhere on the team. When or if any of that happens, I expect Putnam to be added to the 25-man roster in Cleveland, and I expect him at worst to be a late season addition sometime in September.

As for Lee, I don't see him being an option until sometime in 2012. He is having another great season where since being called up to Triple-A Columbus he has thrown 12.1 shutout innings in eight appearances (7 H, 3 BB, 19 K), and overall this season in 31 games between Double-A and Columbus is 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA (52.0 IP, 34 H, 14 BB, 75 K). He is living up to his billing as one of the Indians’ best relief prospects (maybe their best), but there are other options above him in the pecking order right now.

Unless the Indians get hit with the injury bug here the last two months of the season, I’d expect Lee to finish the season in Columbus. There is an outside shot he could be a callup in September to add another bullpen arm to the pitching mix for the stretch run, but assuming there will already be so many other relievers on the roster he probably won’t be as the Indians have shown in the past they will not bring up a valuable player to sit and start accruing service time. Even still, he and Putnam are two impact quality relievers in waiting in Columbus for the Indians….or potentially in a trade.

David K. wrote: Any chance we see Hagadone in the pen before the year is through? It looks like he’s found his groove in Columbus.

Me: Yes, there is definitely a chance, though as noted with Chen Lee, Hagadone is not first in line out of Triple-A Columbus. There is no doubt that Hagadone, Lee, Putnam and Judy are all legitimate big league bullpen options, and could soon find their way in Cleveland if they trade an arm or two from the big league roster to acquire help elsewhere on the roster. It is also possible that Hagadone and company could all be part of a trade as well to bring in a player.

If Hagadone is not dealt I would think there is a decent chance he could be in Cleveland sometime in September, and may eventually be the replacement in waiting for lefty Rafael Perez. Hagadone is having a very good season where in 32 combined appearances between Double-A Akron and Columbus he is 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA (50.1 IP, 41 H, 15 BB, 52 K). Most impressive for him this year has been the return of his command where he has cut his walk rate from 6.6 BB/9 in 2010 to an amazing 2.7 BB/9 this year. With him throwing more strikes and being a high velocity bullpen guy from the left side, there is a ton of value there for the Indians bullpen in the very near future or to another team. He is still highly regarded by a lot of teams, and will surely be a guy teams ask to be included in any deals this July and August.

Orrie S. wrote: Do you see Luis Valbuena ever getting another shot with the Indians despite the logjam of middle infielders, or is he trade bait?

Me: ValbuenaChisenhall and Jason Kipnis.

Valbuena, 25, is still relatively young and with his versatility I believe he is a guy whose long term future with the organization will be as a utility player. He does not have the excellent defense that a lot of utility options have up the middle, but he is more versatile in that he can play third base and some outfield and also has some pop from the left side. He has been forced of late to play some outfield at the big league level before he was ready because of the rash of injuries, so some of the defensive issues out there are not his fault, but it could be an area they look to shore up by having him play in the outfield during winter ball this offseason to gain some valuable experience out there.

Valbuena may not be an everyday guy anymore, but he still has value. The last two years in Triple-A he has dominated, so he just needs to find a way to carry that consistency and success over to the Major League level. He sort of did that at times in 2009 but fell off a cliff last year, and in limited play so far this season at the big league level has not impressed. I still think his performance last year was just an outlier and I expect him in the future to be more like he was in 2009 once he gets a chance to settle in at the big league level again.

Eric wrote: I had a question about the Phelps/Donald/Kipnis conundrum. Assuming we keep all three, wouldn't the best plan be to start Kipnis at second base, have Phelps be the everyday designated hitter (in 2013) and have Donald be the utility guy?

Me: I think that's kind of the plan which is to have Kipnis as the everyday second baseman and Lonnie Chisenhall the everyday third baseman with Donald as the utility guy who hits from the right side and complements both well while also being versatile enough to play shortstop, third base and second base.

The odd man out in the equation is Phelps who unless Kipnis bombs will have a hard time sticking with the big league club since he is almost strictly a second baseman. He has played a little third base and a lot of shortstop this year in the minors, but from what I have heard the reports are not that good and he is not a Major League option at either position unless in emergency. Phelps could be trade bait, or may have to learn to play the outfield in the offseason to add some versatility to his game. Obviously he could fill in at designated hitter if need be, but that is Hafner's position at least through next season.  Plus, I think by the time Hafner is gone that Phelps will have been traded anyway.

At this point it appears that Phelps is the backup plan for Kipnis at second base. If Kipnis fails, then you can maybe move him back to the outfield and you then have Phelps as an option at second base. But if the Indians are sold enough on Kipnis right now they may choose to sell high on Phelps instead of waiting to find out if Kipnis lives up to his promise.  If they did that, they would then use Donald as a fall back option at second base or even Luis Valbuena.

David K. wrote: How high is the internal level of concern of having not only a lefty- hitting dominated lineup, but also as far as I can tell not a single high level right-handed hitting prospect?

Me: I think there is some concern about the lack of right-handed hitting options in the system, but I don't sense any urgency on the part of the Indians to fix this perceived problem. There would surely be a ton more urgency and concern if they lacked pitching. I believe the thought is as long as you have lots of pitching options those needs offensively can usually - though not always - be addressed by using some of that pitching to plug holes where needed in the lineup. I would expect some of these right-handed hitting concerns to begin to be addressed with a trade or two between now and the end of this coming offseason, and possibly in free agency.

John wrote: I am wondering what Kyle Blair's injury is? I met him early in the season and he was incredibly nice to my son so I am hoping he is okay.

Me: Blair is working through an injury to his right knee. It started to bother him in early June, and after coming back on June 26th from a 12 day layoff he was still experiencing some issues so was put on the disabled list and has been out in Goodyear, Arizona rehabbing ever since. Obviously the knee has affected his performance to some degree this year as in 14 starts for Low-A Lake County he is 3-5 with a 5.98 ERA (61.2 IP, 65 H, 35 BB, 58 K).

Blair’s performance this season has been a bit of a disappointment as with his college experience and draft pedigree he was not expected to stay in Lake County this long, so maybe in some way the injury can be blamed for his inconsistency this season. It has been a learning experience for him this year that's for sure. He’s a great young man, and a favorite of mine, so I hope he can come back soon and finish the season strong.

Chad L. wrote: What is the status of Hector Ambriz? I know we tried him out last year and then he got hurt, but I haven't heard his name as one of the possible bullpen call-ups...didn't know if he was working out well in AAA or not?

Me: Ambriz is still in Arizona rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he had on October 1st, 2010. He will not pitch anywhere this year, though may pitch some in Instructional League or in winter ball. That does not seem unlikely since he would have to complete a throwing program and several bullpen sessions in the next six to eight weeks, so he probably will not pitch in any kind of game setting until next spring.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

1 comments:

I think we'll see Lee, Hagadone and Putnam up before the September call-ups. The Indians are going to make a deal, and there are going to be relievers involved. The only way those three don't make it to Cleveland, is if they are the ones dealt.

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