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| Kosuke Fukudome (Photo: AP) |
- A lot of people are underwhelmed with the deal, but this is expected to just be a shot across the bow as the Indians are still hot and heavy after several bats and starting pitchers. When the dust settles after 4:00 PM on Sunday, the Indians are expected to have acquired as many as two to four more players. So before we get all upset at the move, let's see what else they do and THEN look at all the moves collectively before we go off the deep end.
- Fukudome is not an impact player by any means, which is why it cost so little to acquire him. But with a team starving for some stability in the outfield, he should provide it. Putting the likes of Travis Buck and Ezequiel Carrera in the outfield every night while Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore are on the shelf has been tough to watch, and Fukudome will be an immediate upgrade over Buck. The upgrade may not be seen in production numbers or batting average, but more in the quality of his at bats, more consistently putting the ball in play, getting on base, and less strikeouts.
- Everyone knows the Indians need a run producing bat, but they also need guys who can get on base too. They just are not doing much of anything on offense, and getting a solid on-base guy like Fukudome should help. Again, he will not be a huge upgrade, but he should be much better than Buck. Would you rather have Buck out there in right field the next month or Fukudome?
- A lot of people have pointed to Fukudome's poor RBI total this year (13), but you have to remember that as a leadoff hitter in the National League you do not get very many RBI opportunities because of the pitcher hitting 9th. As a leadoff hitter in the NL you actually lead off a lot more, something he has done in 125 of his 293 at bats (43%) which have led off an inning. In the few times he has had an opportunity to drive in a run this year and get an RBI he is hitting .311/.516/.467/.983 with runners in scoring position. To get an RBI you have to have opportunities. It is why it is not considered a very useful stat in the scouting world when it comes to evaluating talent and ability.
- If I gave you the 2011 batting line for Player A (.273/.374/.369/.743) and Player B (.275/.330/.385/.715) you would probably say Player A is having the better season, right? Also, if I gave you the career batting line for Player A (.262/.369/.403/.772) and Player B (.269/.321/.358/.679) you would probably say that up to this point Player A has had the better career, right? Well, Player A is Fukudome and Player B is Michael Brantley. Yes, long term there is no doubt that Brantley is the better player, but going strictly on performance and numbers, Fukudome has been as good or better than Brantley not only this year but over their career as well. So Fukudome is not exactly a “bad” player. For $12 million a year, yeah, he was a bad player. For $775K like the Indians will pay him, he is solid.
- With the Indians only needing to pay $775K of the $4.7 million left on Fukudome's deal and him being a free agent at the end of the year, the Indians are not taking on much salary at all. By comparison, had they kept a minimum salary player around like a Travis Buck he would have made about $135K over the same period, so in the end it is costing the Indians about an extra $640K for him.
- There is also some confusion over Fukudome's eligibility for free agency, arbitration, and draft pick compensation. For a player to be eligible for free agency they have to have six years of Major League service time, and at the conclusion of Fukudome's contract this year he will only have four years of service time. Under normal circumstances, he would be a first time eligible arbitration player and not eligible for free agency if the Indians offer arbitration. This, however, is not the case as it was written into the contract he signed with the Cubs that he would be a free agent at the conclusion of his contract and would follow the six year service time rule for free agency and arbitration. What this means is the Indians can offer him arbitration and if he declines and signs elsewhere they would get a draft pick since he is projected to be a Type B free agent. Now, whether or not the Indians would even offer him arbitration or not is another story as he could be costly in arbitration, but the fact remains they can if they choose to and if they do so they do get draft pick compensation.
- I keep hearing about how the Indians need to acquire an impact bat. That's all fine and dandy to wish for, but they have to be available. The only true impact bat available was Carlos Beltran, and the Indians tried to acquire him but they were on his no trade list. After him the only bats available like a Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur, and so on are not impact bats. Some are good and better than others, but none are "impact" quality. Maybe my definition of impact is different from others, but when I think of impact I think of guys like the Adrian Gonzalez's, Ryan Howard's, and Mark Teixeira's of the world. Those are difference makers. The guys available would surely help, but their value and impact are being inflated because of a terrible trade market. The Indians have said they plan to do more, so the potential is still there to add one of those bats still out there that are rumored to be available. It still looks like the Indians may swing something with Ludwick, and even though he is not an impact bat he would surely help (depending on the cost to acquire him).
- The players the Indians gave up, Smith and Abreu, are considered marginal prospects. Neither player really had any big league value to the Indians as both of them were not expected to be any part of the Tribe's future the next two to three years. Also, both were not highly viewed in the scouting community coming into the season and both probably will not be highly valued after it, so unless you are a big Abreu fan there is not much to get upset about in the deal. I admit to being a huge Abreu fan, and am probably one of the few people to rate him highly the past few years, but I think it is a good gamble to take to fill the big league team with a ML bat that can help right now.
- Abreu is the only true prospect given up in the deal as he has a lot to like in that he has very good power, runs well, has a cannon for an arm, and is an excellent defensively outfielder. He has lots of tools and with his age and size he makes for an interesting prospect on those merits alone. However, the big red flag with him has been his plate discipline as he strikes out a ton and is too much of a free swinger. He has recently simplified his approach some to help combat this issue and has been better, but even with the power surge of late the discipline issue is still an underlying problem for him.
- At this point Abreu is what he is with regards to his plate discipline; it just depends on whether or not he can become more consistent as a player. He was coming back from a severe shoulder injury last year which probably affected his numbers, so maybe now that he is healthy he is finally coming into his own. I hope that is the case as I am a huge fan of his on and off the field. Being realistic about it though, he is repeating at the High-A level and the numbers still are not there. I don't expect him to reach the big leagues as eventually the discipline issue will be too tough to overcome as he faces Double-A and Triple-A pitching. Because of his tools he will be given every opportunity to overcome this issue.
- Abreu is up for roster protection this offseason, and it appears the Indians would not have rostered him to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He is a toolsy player, which is valuable to teams and may have sparked some interest in picking him up in the Rule 5 Draft, but he likely would have remained an Indian because he would have been abused by big league pitching.
- Abreu is still a talent and I am sad to see him go. The tools are still exciting and it would have been nice to see how things played out with him had he remained in the Indians organization, but it was an opportune time to make a move and give up a player that has a lot to overcome before he is ever in the discussion as a big league option.
- As for Carlton Smith, he is a fringe reliever who has been passed over by loads of relievers in the Tribe's system this year and last year. Several scouts I have spoken to over the last two years don't like him at all. He was more pitching inventory than anything for the Indians, and they have several arms from Triple-A Columbus on down to replace him. I think he has the ability to someday get a cup of coffee in the big leagues, but it obviously was not going to happen in Cleveland. He is a minor league free agent at the end of the season, so he may not even be a Cub for long anyway, though he could get a look in September if they really like him that much.
- I will post the 2011 scouting reports for Abreu and Smith in a separate posting later tonight for Indians fans to know what they gave up or for Cubs fans to know what they got.
Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).
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