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| Ubaldo Jimenez (Photo: AP) |
What the Indians got
- There are a lot of people either all for the deal or completely against it, and it is usually because those for or against the trade are non-prospect fans or prospect fans. On one side you have those people who are not into prospects saying that such a high percentage of prospects flame out, so this is a deal well worth taking a gamble on for a sure thing. On the other side you have the prospect fans worried that the Indians gave up two potential front-of-the-rotation pitchers in a deal for one pitcher.
- I’m a prospect guy, but I have to say that in this case, as long as Jimenez is healthy and checks out, I am with the non-prospect fans on this one. Anytime you have a chance to pickup not only a proven front of the rotation pitcher but one who is under control for another few seasons and cost effective, you have to make the move. Sure, Pomeranz and White *could* end up as good as Jimenez down the road, but the big thing is Jimenez is doing it now, has proven it over time, and is still young, cheap, and controlled.
- You also have to consider what mode the Indians are in. Are they rebuilding, building, or contending? If they were rebuilding, then this deal would make no sense at all, but they are not rebuilding. The question is what mode are they currently in? Building or contending? They are actually doing a little bit of both right now, so a deal like this makes sense as Jimenez gives them a chance to contend and win now and he is another building block for a potential run at a World Series the next few years.
- One thing to consider is the Indians window for contention is now with the current set of players like Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rafael Perez, and Joe Smith who are all free agents after 2012 (Sizemore) or 2013 (the rest). Also Justin Masterson and Chris Perez are free agents after the 2014 season. Jimenez will also coincidentally be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season, so the Indians are taking a shot to now and the next two years to make the playoffs and do something during this current window of contention from 2011-2013 with the older group of core players on hand.
- Their postseason chances may appear slim this year, but they just set themselves up as strong contenders the rest of this season in the AL Central and in 2012 and 2013 with this deal. Yes, they need bats, something which could be addressed this offseason, but in the end the main goal is to win, and that was the focus with this trade. That makes this Jimenez deal worth it if you ask me for two “potential” big league pitchers.
- That’s the key word: “potential”. The Indians are acquiring a piece in Jimenez not just for this year but for at least the next two years to help the big league team win now. Pomeranz and White could potentially help now an beyond, but they were still unknowns. With the significant middle finger injury White suffered it is a huge red flag for him going forward. Who knows how effective he will ever be after he returns from the injury or if other injuries result from him compensating for the finger. Injuries quite often ruin the careers of “can’t miss” prospects, and there is never a guarantee a top rated pitcher will fare well when and if he gets to the big leagues. Pomeranz has made just three appearances at the Double-A level, so there is no guarantee that he will not get injured or hit a wall as he pitches more in Double-A, gets to Triple-A, and ultimately the big leagues. There are still several levels to achieve success at before he even reaches the level Jimenez already has. That’s why getting the sure thing trumps potential.
- Aside from dealing for Jimenez, I would not have been happy with a trade for any other player said to be available where we included Pomeranz and White. This includes bats such as Carlos Beltran and Hunter Pence. This was a two pitchers for one sale, and one I can live with. Two potentials for one sure thing. Now, had the Indians substituted Jason Kipnis or Lonnie Chisenhall for one of White or Pomeranz, I would have been much less excited about the deal because we would be dealing from a position of weakness (position players) than strength (pitching).
- That’s another key. The Indians are loaded with pitching in the minors. This is why making a play for Jimenez is not such a bad thing as they have the arms to adequately replace the departed Pomeranz, White, and Gardner. Now, yes, there are no other arms currently in the system like Pomeranz and White, but there are lots of guys now on the immediate horizon who can help cover up their loss. Pitchers like lefty Scott Barnes for one, a guy some scouts have said could be a “Pomeranz-lite”.
- With Jimenez, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco, Fausto Carmona, Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff, and Zach McAlliser all under control for several seasons past this one, the Indians have a very strong, deep core of starters to go with the next several years. This is why the loss of White and Pomeranz does not hurt as much. With the starting rotation seemingly strong for the next few years, it gives the organization time to develop or draft the next Pomeranz and White so they are ready in 2013 or 2014.
- Speaking of drafting and developing, two of those future stud arms could be right-handed pitcher Dillon Howard (2nd round) and left-handed pitcher Dillon Peters (20th round) from the this year’s draft. Both are unsigned, and while Howard was expected to sign, Peters was not a sure thing. After this trade it would surprise me to see the Indians do what it takes to ensure they get both of them into the system to replenish some of the top level pitching talent they lost.
What the Indians gave up
- The big loss in the deal is Pomeranz, a pitcher who has come on like gangbusters this year and been everything the Indians hoped he would be when they took him #5 overall in last year’s draft. He was the unquestioned #1 prospect in the Indians system at the time of the trade, and for many evaluators is a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball. Losing a prospect of that caliber is something that is hard to sit with, especially being that he comes from the left side with power stuff with the potential to be a dominating front of the rotation pitcher. He looked to be on the path to being a big league option at some point next year, and a very successful pitcher for the Indians for a long time. I believe he will have a very good, long Major League career.
- Alex White is no doubt a very talented pitcher who has unbelievable makeup and is tough. Indians fans saw all of that firsthand when he was called up in May and made a few appearances before being sidelined with the finger injury. There is no doubt in my mind that prior to the finger injury he would have been a good number two or three starter for years to come for the Indians. With his fastball, splitter and slider combination he has the goods.
- That all said about White, I would be very nervous if I were the Rockies. The finger injury he suffered is an uncommon one in baseball, and is the same one which ruined former Indians top prospect Adam Miller’s career. Several surgeries and three years later Miller is making a miraculous comeback this season. Time will tell on White if the finger injury was serious or just a minor blip, but anytime a pitcher gets a significant injury to their hand, arm or shoulder I am concerned.
- It should be noted that when Miller initially was hurt he went through almost exactly the same rehab program where he was back pitching in a few months. But then he developed an elbow issue, something that may have come about because of concerns pitching with the finger. This is what could happen with White, and why the Indians are smart to maybe trade a potentially damaged goods pitcher now at peak value before anything else happens.
- I know there was legitimate concern about White’s finger, and knowing that scouts and other teams read the papers and such the Indians have been openly putting out his rehab progress a lot the last month. It is no coincidence that he went to Akron on Saturday for a rehab outing the day before the trade deadline. If teams balked about a deal not knowing he was healthy, by sending him on a rehab outing it was a way to “show” he was healthy and making great progress. So even though White was in fact on a rehab assignment and on his way back to the Indians at some point, it definitely looks like the Indians played some poker there with his true health status.
- Joe Gardner is a solid pitching prospect that the Rockies are getting in the deal, but he is not the higher level prospect he was claimed to be at the start of the season when he was included in several Top 10 lists. He has dropped significantly (I’d put him #25-30 now), but he is still a workhorse with a very good sinker he consistently runs in the low 90s and has touched 95 MPH and throws a high percentage of the time. His problem has been that both secondary offerings his slider and changeup are below average pitches, which is what has hurt him some this year when facing more talented hitters at the Double-A level.
- Gardner was a hot prospect at this time last year because of his high groundball and strikeout rates, but he has struggled this year in his first taste of Double-A. He sported a very good 3.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 rate last season in Single-A, but that has changed significantly this season where he has a 4.3 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 this year. On top of that he also held batters to a .197 BAA and had a 3.29 groundball rate (GO/AO), which is what made him very exciting with his ability to miss bats and get players to pound the ball on the ground. But this season hitters are batting .287 off of him and he has dipped to a 1.91 GO/AO. While the Rockies will surely continue to develop him as a starter, all of this points to his struggles with being a once pitch pitcher as a hard sinker can only take you so far, which is why he will likely end up in the bullpen if he makes the big leagues.
- Matt McBride was just inventory to the organization, something that was clearly on display this year when they assigned him to Double-A Akron to start the season and after a midseason promotion to Triple-A Columbus he was recently sent back to Akron. That kind of movement for a 26-year old prospect was a clear sign that he was not a priority prospect for the organization and was viewed more as organizational depth. He has good power and some versatility to play left field, first base and catcher, but he is considered a below average defender in the outfield.
- The Rockies may explore playing McBride at catcher again, a position he played prior to shoulder surgery at the end of 2007, but everything I have heard say his catching days are behind him. He may get a cup of coffee in the big leagues, especially now considering he was included in a major deal, but is not expected to stick around long. He is a guy who could have a nice career and play a long time bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues.
Final thoughts
- As they often say though, to get something you have to give up something. Initially I will admit, I was upset about losing Pomeranz for any player. But if you look at the deal objectively, if Pomeranz ends up being anything close to what Jimenez has been as a Major League pitcher we would all have been elated. The Indians are trading the potential of Pomeranz in the future for a guy doing it now. That’s a tradeoff that helps the Indians now. A team looking to win right now.
- I know that some of us hate to deal prospects because we often get attached to them since we follow them and grow fond of what they could be. This is the tough part for me as I get to know a lot of these guys not just by looking at box scores and from conversations with organizational personnel and scouts, but also personally as well. I’ve gotten to know all of these players over the years, especially McBride who is a class guy. All are great young mean on and off the field, and I wish them nothing but the best.
- Overall, the only two pieces to be concerned about losing in this deal are Pomeranz and White. Gardner and McBride are more filler in the trade with limited Major League futures. So the question you have to ask is this: are Pomeranz and White worth Jimenez? For me, the chance to shore up the rotation with a front of the rotation pitcher is a no-brainer to win now and for the next few years. With Pomeranz and White not being guarantees going forward, I think a two-for-one sale to acquire a sure thing makes perfect sense. But that’s just me, as I am sure others value all four players the Indians gave up in this deal differently.
- Whether you like the trade or not, I think one thing all Indians fans will agree on is it is nice to see the Indians be a buyer for once at the trade deadline, or in any trade for that matter. Quite often they are the one trading the Ubaldo Jimenez’s of the world for prospects, but this time they are the ones making a move to win now rather than for the future. This is the biggest trade deadline deal in their history as far as them getting a Major League player in return. Kudos to Antonetti and company for having the guts to risk some of their future for a chance to win now.
Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).
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14 comments:
Gotta disagree. Not because I love Pomeranz and White and wouldn't give them up for anything. Rather because Jimenez himself is an injury risk and simply hasn't looked anywhere near as good since that crazy half a season before the all-star break in 2010 that put him on the radar. Since then, practically all his peripherals are down and his fastball has lost a few mph. Someone I know did a side by side of his motion last year to this year and it looks like his back might be bothering him. I don't think he'll fail his physical, but it wouldn't exactly surprise me either.
Basically, I liked Pomeranz and White a lot, and I would rather see a rotation of Masterson-Pomeranz-White-Tomlin-Carrasco than Masterson-Jimenez-Tomlin-Carrasco-Gomez/McAllister/Huff. However, like you said, that would be if White stayed healthy and Pomeranz worked out.
I guess the bottom line is, I'm terrified that we just gave Colorado the next Clayton Kershaw for a guy who's got a 4.3 ERA right now and hasn't looked great doing it.
He's had a hip flexor and groin injury this season. Can explain a lot about the velocity drop. Legs need to be 100%.
If Jimenez checks out and is healthy, I am fine with this deal. Obviously if he is hurt no way would I be happy with it. I think one thing often glossed over is how injuries affect players, especially pitchers. He has had some leg/groin area injuries this year, which could be affecting velocity and delivery. At this point time will tell, only thing to do. If he is healthy, and is back to 100% next year, this deal is worth it.
Any movement on the BJ Upton front?
Don't know what they are looking for, but perhaps one more of our starting arms to give up (McAllister, Huff, Gomez, or even Carrasco) and some filler for him?
Heck, a Jimenez (pending physical) & Upton deadline acquisition would make for a good weekend. Both would be a move from this season and next few seasons as they are both still young, but proven.
I just don't see Jimenez as much more of a sure thing than the prospects. If he were still averaging 96.1 mph on his fastball as he did the previous 2 years, it's one thing. Right now he's an inconsistent performer with worse numbers than Masterson and Tomlin while pitching in the NL in a weak-hitting division, who's experienced one of the larger year to year velocity drops of any starter in baseball. He has a lower swinging strike rate than Josh Tomlin (and Alex White, in his brief tenure)
Other pitchers have suffered similar ligament injuries to White's and had no long term effect. Adam Miller's the extreme outlier - just because it happened to Miller and he was an Indian doesn't mean it will happen to White - that's just being superstitious. You can say the Indians are losing Cabrera, et all after 2013-2014, but that's too far out to predict who they might have to replace those guys. The key for me is they would've had the core of Kipnis, Chisenhall, Santana, White, Pomeranz and Carrasco until 2017, that's a lot different than having Jimenez through 2013.
The rotation as soon as next June could've been Masterson, White, Carmona, Carrasco, Pomeranz. You can say "who knows how the prospect would develop," but I say we know no better how Jimenez himself will perform. Again - lower swinging strike % than Josh "consistently throws 87 mph fastballs down the middle of the plate" Tomlin.
Seth hit the nail on the head - Jimenez at this point is no more a proven commodity than Pomeranz or White. We have no idea why he has made such a quick descent into mediocrity. The information assymetry here is stunning - Colorado knows far more about Ubaldo's health than we do. THEY are the ones that had him under control for the extra year, and yet THEY decided to give up on that. We can talk about groins and hip flexors all they want, but do we think for a second they weren't aware of the same thing? This isn't about prospect-love at all, it's about placing bets that are in your favor. This COULD work out....sometimes that gut-shot straight draw comes on the river....but it doesn't mean it was a smart bet. Antonetti should absolutely 100% be fired if Ubaldo flames out. 100%.
My mind would be eased considerably if we can get a fair share of the high upside picks signed. I Think the front office did a terrific job this year with the arms that fell to us. So lets get Howard and Peters done and also maybe 2 or 3 of Tarpley, Merritt, Brady, Armstrong, Ruxler, Pitts, and Griffin.
How is Ubaldo no more of a proven commodity than Pomeranz and White? Look, I understand a lot of us love the Indians prospects (we always overvalue our own guys), but Ubaldo has four years of ML history as a pitcher. Sure, numbers are down this year but I've heard the concerns are not as great on that because of his minor injuries this year which may have affected him. Pomeranz on the other hand has 3 starts above Single-A to his credit...had to prove himself at three different levels still. And White is a concern with his injury.
Again, if Pomeranz or White ever amount to what Ubaldo has done up to this point we would have been happy. It is a risky trade because there are some concerns for sure, but if he checks out as healthy, I am down with the gamble.
Tony- I heard Pomeranz is listed as a PTBNL for another month until he is officially eligable to be traded. Does this mean he remains in the Akron rotation during this time? Seems sort of odd. And if this were the case, couldn't the Indians bring him up for a month and overwork him like the Brewers rode CC is 08.
I'm sure they could...but...
how many GM's would listen to the Indians after they pull that?
Not 100%, but believe Pomeranz would just be deactivated in Akron and throw bullpens as instructed by Rockies.
Fair point Tony. I meant unproven in the context of this deal - there are still questions. Clearly Ubaldo has more real ML numbers, but that should be blindingly obvious given he was worth four prospects. The question is - what are we really getting? A deal with NYY supposedly fell apart over the physical demands - NYY wanted an MRI and Colorado refused. Do we know what our physical consisted of? "Checking out" as healthy via a physical is less important to me than watching the radar gun - something clearly is different with him versus last year, the question is what.
Reality check - if he's pitching like he was in 1H10, is there any chance they deal him? Unlikely. And if they're unwilling to believe he can rebound to that form, why should we be? And if he's NOT going to reasonably rebound to that form, was he really worth what we gave them?
Time will tell.
It will be interesting to see how Ubaldo does perform. You can say his number this year are skewed by a bad start, but still, his current numbers don't inspire much confidence, his ERA, swinging strike %, line drive % are all not only un-ace-like, but below average. If he kept up his current performance, he's fit somewhere in between Tomlin and Carmona on the Indians' staff. So, you're banking on the first couple months of this year being the extreme exception going forward, not the rule. Which may be the case: both Cliff Lee in '09 and Sabathia in '08 had awful starts, but have since been consistently excellent.
If you're confident in the current Indians' team, then I guess this trade makes some sense. They've just narrowed their window to 2012-2013. But what, exactly, inspires this confidence? The offense, outside of the fluky 1st 2 months to this season, has been atrocious, and right now, what you see is what you get: no more prospects loom on the horizon. They've been about a .400 team, you add even good Ubaldo into the mix and his 6.0 WAR, and the Indians pick up a couple wins over the past 2 months, so instead of 23-37, they go 25-35. That's the best-case scenario. The worst case, is that Jimenez performance this year is a harbinger of things to come, that his precipitous velocity decline continues, and that White recovery fully from his injury and Pomeranz develops as expected. Is a rotation fronted by Masterson and Jimenez better than one that next year includes Masterson, White, Carrasco, Carmona and Pomeranz? Maybe. That's by no means a for sure thing. You'd have a good idea that the top 2 would be better with Jimenez, but 1-5, being that you're subbing Pomeranz for a Tomlin, Huff, or Gomez ... questionable even if Jimenez performs pretty well. Basically, I see this as a limited upside, high downside trade. If they can contend next year and Jimenez rebounds, then it could work out. Both the contending and the Jimenez rebounding part are highly questionable.
MRIs are not part of physical process. Yankees requirement was out of ordinary, and had Rockies accepted would have set a precedent. Teams only get MRIs on guys with health issues when they are FAs. The Rockies denied the Yankees request for a physical probably because they were not enthused with their deal....whereas they liked the Indians deal so were fine with going the next step. Indians found no red flags in the physical....it wont pick up everything (Knapp) but is the best you can do. Indians have no concerns on his health whatsoever. If they did they would not have made the deal. So I am fine with that and willing to let time tell.
Seth, one thing about Ubaldo this year is his peripheral stats have stayed the same as last year. Same walk and strikeout rates. Hits are up, but he has been better of late. This is a guy who is on pace for another 200 inning season. A workhorse FOR guy who gets it up to the upper 90s. Pitches very well outside of Coors. Again, if Pomeranz ever becomes a pitcher like Ubaldo, we would have been elated. And there is a decent chance the Indians keep him beyond 2013. That 2014 player option is key, and if he pitches well the rest of the year I wouldn't be surprised if they started talking about an extension in offseason.
And absolutely no doubt a rotation of Ubaldo-Masterson is better than Masterson-White (or Pomeranz). White is a huge question mark with health, and Pomeranz wouldn't really be a factor until 2013.
I love prospects (obviously). But pitching prospects are never a guarantee. Ask Adam Miller. Hector Rondon. Jeremy Sowers. David Huff. Scott Lewis. Chuck Lofgren. Jason Knapp. Etc. All pitchers in last few years with high hopes who got injured or underpeformed at some level. I believe Pomeranz/White will be successful, but there is no guarantee in that....so if you can get a sure thing FOR guy and he checks out as healthy, you take the chance IF the focus is on winning right now. This year and next few years.
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