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Kipnis' arrival in Cleveland likely depends on Orlando Cabrera. (Photo: AP) |
Kipnis watch continues
Now that third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall has been called up to Cleveland, all eyes are on the Indians’ other top position player prospect Triple-A Columbus second baseman Jason Kipnis and when he gets the call to Cleveland.
Kipnis had a good showing this past week in two different All Star games, hitting a lead off homer for the USA team in the All Star Futures Game last Sunday and going 1-for-2 with a double and walk in the Triple-A All Star game on Wednesday. He is hitting .292 with 11 homers, 51 RBI, and a .875 OPS in 85 games at Columbus, and all signs point to him being ready with the bat to contribute at the big league level. With the Indians desperate for hitting, he would surely help give the lineup a boost.
The one problem with all of this is the presence of incumbent second baseman Orlando Cabrera. The Indians saw what a disaster it was when they made the in-season switch last month to Cord Phelps as the regular second baseman and relegated Cabrera to more of a utility role. The move did not sit well with Cabrera who vocalized his displeasure about the second base change and did not take to third base well, and it backfired with Phelps as he struggled both offensively and defensively.
With Cabrera now settled into his second base spot again, it looks like the Indians have made a decision to stick with him for the long haul and he could be the second baseman for the rest of the season. Cabrera is a favorite of manager Manny Acta and he also brings a ton of leadership to a team in need of it. Even with his sub par play offensively and defensively the Indians appear inclined to stick with him at second base in order not to risk rocking the boat and damaging the psyche of the team as they make a playoff run.
What this means for Kipnis is he may not get to Cleveland at all this year. That was the plan going into the season as the Indians preferred he get a full season in at Triple-A in order to finish off his development defensively and because he is not even up for roster protection until after the 2012 season. However, contending has a way of changing things so those reasons are no longer as important in holding Kipnis back. The only reason at this point is Cabrera’s presence on the roster.
When the Indians call up Kipnis he will need to play every day, but there is no way that can happen as long as Cabrera is around as he needs to play every day too. It is just not a good fit to move Cabrera to a bench role as he would be very unhappy there and he is not very comfortable at third base, and while Kipnis played outfield in college he is not an option there at least right now at the big league level. There is really no option to play either at any other position on a regular basis, so second base is really it for both of them.
Ultimately, what this means is that for Kipnis to make it to Cleveland this season it probably will require that Cabrera be traded or released. It is very unlikely the Indians will release Cabrera as that could have a detrimental affect on the team since he is so close to a lot of the players, particularly with Asdrubal Cabrera who gives Orlando Cabrera a ton of credit for his breakout season. The only option appears to be a trade, though that appears remote at this time.
For now it really looks like the Indians have settled on Cabrera as the second baseman, and will also mix in Luis Valbuena some in a minor platoon where he plays against some right-handed pitching. If Cabrera has to be the everyday guy, a player like Valbuena is a much better fit to pair up with him since he doesn’t need to play everyday and he can play other positions.
So prepare for the possibility that Cabrera is the second baseman for the rest of the season and that Kipnis does not make it to Cleveland. It will make for an interesting couple of weeks as we get closer to the July 31st trade deadline to see what the Indians do with this growing dilemma at second base. Plans can always change.
Rotation changeup
As expected the Indians made some changes to their rotation at the All Star break. They reset the order of their rotation by having Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin and Carlos Carrasco pitch the first three games out of the break. The move of Masterson to the first slot shows the confidence they have in him as well as his standing as the Indians ace of the staff right now.
The Indians also placed Mitch Talbot on the 15-day disabled list with a lower back strain retroactive to July 9th. He was scheduled to start today, but now that he is shelved right-handed pitcher Jeanmar Gomez will be called up to make that start and is expected to remain in the rotation while Talbot is out. There is a good chance that if Gomez pitches well it will be tough for Talbot to reclaim his spot in the rotation when he comes off the disabled list. If Talbot is not inserted into the rotation when he returns, then the Indians would have to place him on waivers before they can send him to the minors since he is out of options.
The Indians also put Fausto Carmona at the end of the rotation, partly because of his struggles but also because it worked well in allowing him to only miss one start since the earliest he could come off the 15-day disabled list is Monday July 18th. Provided he is good to go, he is expected to pitch one of the games in the doubleheader scheduled with the Twins in Minnesota on Monday.
The Indians will also need a spot starter for the other start on Monday in the doubleheader, and the two candidates for that start are right-handed pitcher Zach McAllister and left-handed pitcher David Huff. Both Huff and McAllister are aligned for the start since McAllister only pitched two innings on Wednesday in the Triple-A All Star game and Huff pitched just three innings (63 pitches) on Thursday for Columbus.
The Indians have not yet announced who will make the spot start, but McAllister is listed as the probably pitcher for Columbus on Monday which would put him right in line for a callup. Huff is definitely in play for the Monday start, but it seems he was likely held back in his start on Thursday as a precaution in the event Carmona is not ready to go on Monday.
Internationally speaking
The Indians have shown a stronger presence in Latin America this year by going after and signing some of the top talent available. In the early stages of the International Signing Period which started on July 2nd they signed five 16-year old players, shortstop Dorssys Paulino, outfielder Francisco Miguel, left-handed pitcher Edgar Pineda, outfielder Omar Sanchez, and outfielder Anthony Santander.
This is a bit out of the norm for them as in recent years they have been more inclined to watch from the sidelines during the early parts of the signing period and would wait until August and September to sign players that maybe fell through the cracks. The Indians have an international budget of around $2.5 to $3.0 million, which is more than recent years; however, it still pales in comparison to some teams who are spending about twice that or even more on the international front.
“This market has totally gone haywire,” Indians Scouting Director John Mirabelli said in a recent interview. “I am sure it has gotten the attention of Major League Baseball and the owners with the costs involved here. Everybody talks about the [MLB] Draft, but I think this market has gone more out of control at a more astronomical rate even more than the draft. I am pretty sure this will be addressed in the next agreement as well.”
Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires in December. There are a lot of things that will be addressed this year, and hard-slotting with the MLB Draft and handling the international market are two things that will get a lot of attention when talks get started on a new deal.
Unlike the NFL or NBA who both have gone through lockouts this year with the expiration of their CBA’s, Major League Baseball is not expected to have a work stoppage.
Slow developing trade market
With such a slow trade market developing, do not expect the Indians to make any kind of trade until the July 31st trade deadline gets closer. With so many teams still in the mix in their division races, it is a seller’s market right now as so many teams believe they can still win.
At the start of play on Saturday, 16 teams are within five games of first place or in first place. That should begin to change in a week or two as we move beyond the All Star break and get closer to the deadline, and at that time you may see the Indians strike in a deal or two. The Indians have the ammunition with prospects to pull off any deal they would want, but there are monetary concerns at play when acquiring a player and they also do not want to trade off significant pieces of their future for a three month rental.
With this in mind, look for the Indians to be in the mix for some of the lower level players expected to be available in a trade such as Oakland outfielder Josh Willingham, Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman/outfielder Casey Blake, or maybe even San Diego outfielder Ryan Ludwick.
Kansas City’s Jeff Francoeur would appear to be a good fit in that the Indians expressed interest in signing him in the offseason, but there is talk that Kansas City has some interest in resigning him. But he has also struggled of late. In his first 29 games of the season he hit .316 with 7 homers, 23 RBI and a .980 OPS. Since then in 61 games he it hitting .238 with 4 homers, 32 RBI and a .635 OPS.
Trading within the division should not be a problem as the Indians and Royals completed a July trade in 2003 when they shipped lefty Brian Anderson to them, and the Indians also traded Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers last year and Carl Pavano to the Twins in 2009.
White on comeback trail
Right-handed pitcher Alex White is continuing to work his way back from the right middle finger sprain he suffered at the end of May that ended up placing him on the disabled list. He has been progressing through a long toss throwing program which he finished up on Friday and experienced no issues. The next step in his rehab is to start throwing bullpen sessions, which he did on Saturday in Baltimore by throwing 30 fastballs. If things continue to go well he could go on a rehab assignment in the minors by the end of the month.
White, 22, made three starts for the Indians earlier this year before injuring the finger going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA. It is still not a sure thing that he will pitch again this season as middle finger sprains are very tricky and can flare up at any moment (see Adam Miller). In any case, this is good news that he is doing well and may be an option down the stretch for the Indians as a starter or even a bullpen option.
Parting shots
The August 15th signing deadline for the 2011 Draft is four weeks away, but do not expect any of the remaining unsigned players taken in the first ten rounds by the Indians to sign until the deadline or just before it. All four players remaining unsigned players are expected to be signed. … Third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall was back in the lineup as expected on Thursday and has not had any issues with the facial fracture he received when hit by a pitch a week earlier. He is wearing a custom helmet that has an extended ear flap to protect the right side of his face. … Outfielder Trevor Crowe is coming along well in his rehab from his elbow injury and is expected to go on a rehab assignment soon, possibly by the last week of the month. … Right-handed pitcher Anthony Reyes threw a sim-game in Arizona on Friday and it supposedly went well.
Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).
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7 comments:
The leadership argument with Orlando Cabrera makes no sense. He is a terrible hitter at this point in his career, is hardly a defensive wizard, and if Kipnis is handed the 2B job Cabrera will apprently bitch about it...What kind of leadership is that? Phelps' struggles are beside the point, Kipnis is twice the player. The Indians are killing their playoff hopes by starting an awful player at second base and allowing him to hold the development of arguably their best prospect hostage. It's a darned shame.
Yeah, I don't agree with the Cabrera thing either....but the org signed him to fill 2B this season so Kipnis could stay in AAA to develop. Knowing what I know, I would be very surprised if they DFAed him as at could have a detrimental affect on the team. If he goes, he would seemingly have to go via trade. Hard to say though he has done anything less than expected coming in, and he has been HUGE in the development of Asdrubal this year. Last thing you want to do is also upset Asdrubal, especially when you are making a playoff run and also want to work out a long term deal this offseason.
Personally, O-Cab needs to man up, realize that he was brought on as a stop gap and accept that the future is knocking a little sooner and much louder than predicted.
I still have to wonder though, if splitting 2B between Kipnis and O-Cab with Kipnis moving to LF when O-Cab does play wouldn't be the way to go. I understand that they want him to worry about 2B defense first, but the Indians OF is such a mess that he's have to be an upgrade despite being a LH hitter. The only other option I can see is the Tribe making a deal for Ryan Ludwick.
Either way something needs to be done to keep us in the race. Right now we're completely out matched by Detroit.
If we're completely outmatched by Detroit, then Kipnis coming up isn't going to solve that issue (although it would certainly help). I agree with Tony that if OCab is instrumental in helping Asdrubal, you keep him around simply based on the fact that without Drubes this year, Cleveland would probably be 5-10 games out right now.
I wouldn't bring up Kipnis and move him all over the place. If you bring him up, he would have to play at second base all season long, the way ACab did in 2007.
But...remember...Cabrera didn't come up in 2007 until August 8th, I believe, and the Indians were struggling mightily offensively at the time. Asdrubal then provided an incredible spark.
And he took over for Josh Barfield, who sucked the entire season.
No OCab is no Josh Barfield, but their numbers are actually fairly similar...offensively and defensively.
It's still possible that Kipnis is called up...and it's still possible that he can be a factor...a major factor...on this team. I'm sure it's something that Acta and company are watching closely.
But...you can't measure how much Acta loves having Cabrera on this team (by most people's estimation...a lot)...and how much Asdrubal wants him there (and again...a lot seems to fit). That said...
It may be an OCab summer.
By the way...not sure I agree with the Tigers assessment. They have some plus players, but continue to play with ten cent heads. We do have to watch both the Tigers and the White Sox, but we have 22 games combined left with both...13 after the September call-ups, when Kipnis may be up anyways...
Kipnis would not be able to play OF right now. Would need a good 1-2 months there since he has never played there professionally. He is probably a better defender at 2B now than he was in the outfield. He has experience in the OF, but still has zero development as an outfielder which is key. He is a full time second base option only right now. Maybe in the offseason they consider moving him back to the OF, but I doubt it.
And it is not about manning up with Cabrera. A lot of players would have a problem mid-season if their job was taken away. Do you think Derek Jeter would like being moved to a backup role right now if the Yanks had some hot shot SS prospect? He is in decline and almost as bad as Cabrera this year. Granted this is an extreme example, but that's my point is a team leader or veteran typically has the respect of the team and organization. They pull the job from him and it just looks bad now and in the future when you want to sign guys too.
Not saying I agree with it....just rationalizing it and being realistic about it as best as I can. I really feel that barring an injury that Cabrera is the 2B for the rest of the season and that Kipnis may very well not sniff Cleveland.
Ah, see I wasn't aware that he hadn't played in the OF professionally, but did recall him having played there before. But would a platoon of Kipnis and O-Cab be a possibility? You could even use O-Cab as a defensive (shudder) replacement late in the game or have him stay in after pinch hitting for Kipnis should a tough lefty reliever come up to face him.
I just can't help but think that splitting playing time close to 50/50 (harder to do with OCab being the righty, but justifiable in that he's the veteran with experience) would have to be worth more than OCab full time.
Personally I think that OCab has to realize that he's not a young stud anymore, nor has he ever been on a Jeter like status and he's on a completely different team vs being on the same team his entire career. Loss of PT sucks, but he has to see the writing on the wall. Throwing a temper tantrum over losing out to a young prospect deserving a shot is hardly the leadership that the Indians hoped to get when they signed him.
That being said, I agree with you guys that you can't just write him off completely or relegate him to a bench role, and that's not what I want to see happen.
As far as Detroit? I just looked up some advanced metrics and was shocked by how close the Indians and Tigers were in wOBA (.318 vs .327), wRC+ (101 vs 105), FIP (3.99 vs 3.98) and hitter WAR (12.7 vs 13.3). We're lagging behind them, but it's really so close. I thought that Detroit had been hitting better than that.
One correction on my part is that Kipnis did play OF at Mahoning Valley for 20-some games in 2009. But immediately moved to 2B in Instructs that year and never has played outfield since. No development or anything out there, so even if they wanted to put him back there he would need at least 1-2 months of play there and not an option there until September if that. Would need a whole offseason to convert back.
I just see no way Kipnis comes to Cleveland as long as Cabrera is on the team. I may be proven wrong on that, so time will tell, but I really believe that is how it stands. Not my preference (I'd have Kipnis in Cleveland), but how I believe the org sees it right now.
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