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Thursday, August 14, 2008

Haley Also Expected To Sign

7:10 PM  Tony  11 comments

Man, it is Christmas in August. Per a report in the Plain Dealer, it appears that 2nd rounder Trey Haley will also sign tomorrow.

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11 comments:

so not knowing a ton about these guys who is the best and who is the most shocking with the money they gave House it sounds like he must have been very highly thought of, but you guys talk about stowell like that was a heck of a signing also

As dismal as this season has been, today was a good day to be a Tribe fan. The F.O. is showing some real commitment to winning...at least in the future. I'm really hoping that this draft turns out better than the last several of Mirabellii's efforts.

First, it is always a good day when you sign draft picks.

Putnam was the best value based on his prospect ranking which was anywhere from 23-50 during the year. He dropped right around draft time due to concerns about his mechanics but at $650,000 was a good value.

Haley was the 126th ranked prospect at draft time which essentially matched his ranking on a variety of sources as the around the 55th best high schooler (double that considering the college players in the draft and that makes him around 110 or an early 4th round pick). Those picks were getting about $300,000 so as you can guess $1,000,000 was a significant reach and we really overpaid this guy based on what everyone had said about him prior to the draft. Add that the Indians told him not to pitch summerball (he told me that in an interview I did with him) and they had no new reason from summer results to pay him this much.

House was much the same, being around the 40th best HS prospect before the draft and the 100th best prospect at the time of the draft. His talent should have netted him about $350,000. Remember, House didn't play this summer meaning his value should not have changed at all from what it was in the spring.

Stowell actually increased his value with his summer in the Cape Cod. His $725,000 was still probably a little high (I think he should have gotten between $550,000 and $600,000).

Fedroff got $750,000, I think, and he was around the 225th best player in the draft, meaning he was an 8th round talent with those guys usually getting what Eric Berger our 8th round pick got, around $125,000.

So, adding it all up these guys got more than they deserve by:

Putnam -$250,000 (he got less based on his ranking)
Stowell +125,000
Fedroff +600,000
Haley +650,000
House +620,000

Thus the Indians, based on the talent and the slotting for that talent, overpaid for these guys by a total of of $1,750,000.

Add this to the amount they overpaid David Roberts and Cord Phelps and the Indians overpaid on this draft by essentially all the money they saved on Byrd, $2,000,000.

Now, you could say, well, who cares, we got these guys?

The analogy I will use is when you buy a car. If the blue book value is $30,000 would you pay $60,000 for it just because you needed a car?

The Indians had a bad draft early and didn't pick the right guys late.

Hey, it's great that they signed these guys because it turned a pathetic draft into a potentially decent one.

But, had they planned for this winfall they could have had a first round talent like Mehlville instead of Haley.

Remember, this is not addition. Getting two "6" talents like House and Haley is not better than getting one "10" talent like Mehlville who dropped due to his bonus demands which weren't that much as you will see when he signs with Kansas City.

In addition there were other guys out there who we could have had for much less than $1 million who were more highly rated than these guys.

Now, you could say that Mirabelli and Grant know more than us but, based on Mirabelli's poor record, I would say that would be a very bad bet to take.

In the end, the Indians overpaid for these guys because they had the money and had to justify dumping Byrd for cash. They did very little in the draft to prepare for the eventuality that was an obvious outcome at draft time: that they would have a fire sale in July/August. Thus, in the end, they were caught with their pants down when they had this extra money and, as a result, overpaid just to save some face and to be able to sign these guys and, as I said, in their minds and they hope, in the fans minds, justifying dumping these guys.

Not pretty, really, although it can easily and will be easily spun that these guys are better than they are because most fans won't take the time to research the real quality of these guys.

Silver lining: These guys do not stink and signing guys who don't stink is better than not signing them.

P.S. The other guys they announced that they had signed were not very highly rated. The more highly rated guys left on their draft list (and there really aren't any of note, just some low level guys) haven't signed yet.

Of the HS signees, I thought that House will be the best pro. when I last saw him about a year ago, he had better mechanics than Haley but both had roughly the same stuff. I had Stowell projected 3-5 round but he has advanced significantly in a year. He just tore up the Cape Cod League. I have not seen any of these guys in a year but I like to think they have added the equivalent of four 1-2 round prospects. This draft may be even higher in potential than the 2006 draft which is a high water mark for the Tribe in recent years.

Dennis

I understand what you're saying about the potential over-paying for prospects, but like you said they only seemingly paid put what they saved on Byrd.

So, the question is, if this is the amount it takes to sign these guys and that $2m has already been budgeted as a sunk cost, then what is better for the long-term of the team?

1. Paying Byrd that $2m?

2. Paying the draft picks that $2m?

3. Paying no-one that $2m?

It seems to me, the best course of action is to sign the picks even if it takes the full $2m to do so.... that money was something you'd budgeted to spend in any case, this way you at least get some future potential return.

Darren,

Absolutely you pay the draft picks.

That being said, and I have made these comments on record before many times, you draft AS IF you are going to have this windfall every year. If you don't have it and you can't get the guys to sign for slot you just don't sign them. If you do have it you are set up to maximize the amount of talent you get for your money.

Without going into any more detail, that is where they messed up. So, if people realize that Haley and House are not really first round talents and Fedroff, Stowell and Berger are 7-10 round talents then the expectations will be appropriate. If Dolan expects the talent to match the bonuses then he will be disappointed.

I'll say it again.....I could give a rat's patooie what we pay these guys. Whether it is $250K over slot or $1M over slot....bottom line they are Cleveland Indians.

Obviously this is what it took to sign these guys. Would you rather we not have signed them then? They spent the money, and got them in here. I'm happy. Period.

Amen TL,

What a convoluted bunch of Hooey! What's important is that we signed these guys, no matter how we did it and for how much. I think we picked up as much as seven first or second round ability draft picks by spending money where other teams passed because of signability. Only in the dark ominous world of planet dennis is there a rationale where he is much smarter than the Indians brain trust that pulled off these really smart moves. I think it very likely that this draft and our 2006 draft will put us back in the upper echelon of minor leage organizations.

TL,

There is not one person in the entire Tribe Nation that would have said, 'No, pocket the money and don't spend it'. You ask what a question I have alrady answered twice here, you sign the guys. But, to cover you eyes and say you don't care if we just wasted big money or if we drafted lower talents when we could have had higher talents for close to the same money if we had drafted correctly?

And, if you choose to close your eyes on what we SHOULD have (not could have but SHOULD have) had from this draft, how Phelps and Roberts were huge overdrafts and how we drafted almost the fewest top prospects in later rounds and then paid those 3rd to 10t round talents best of what we did draft laughable bonuses way over slot money fine.

You seem to trot out your scouts when you need them to support a point. Why not trot them out now and see what they think were the quality of the guys we got and whether they were worth the mone.


IIS,

Your analysis of these players is laughable. Show me THE CONSENSUS evidence as to the ranking of these players as prospects that would indicate the talent you indicate. Heck, even show me an anecdotal rating by an unknowledgeable person in podunk USA who says that these guys are that level of talent that you indicate. Problem is, you can't. You always make sweeping statements without evidence and without identifying yourself. Keep it up. People don't really believe it.

Spending and overpaying for all these guys has no bearing on their budget in the future. If indeed this money had taken away from what was budgeted from say next year's draft, then I may agree with you. But, the fact that this money was allocated to be used now makes what these guys were paid irrelavent to me. They signed them and they are here. Had they not paid them, they wouldn't be here. I prefer the former scenario.

Now, it is arguable if they are worth that money or that the Indians should have taken a different player at their position, etc......but again, that is all debateable and at this point I wish to sit back and see how these guys perform. To sit here and go round and round over guys that we have not seen and based entirely on third party info is kind of funny to me. Let em play and see what happens.

I don't have many connections with amateur scouts mostly because I only see the major league scouts. But I do have contact info from two amateur guys. I have never contacted them, so I will now and see if they are willing to offer any opinions. I'll share anything I find out.

Is it true what Dennis is saying that these are 7-10th round talents that we overdrafted? Of course we all agree better to sign them than not....

But had we not signed them, and they spent another year in college or gone from high school to college, wouldn't this type of player often be more highly ranked in the following season's draft?

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