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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Minor League Camp Report

As those of you know who have read the Top 100 listing here on the site or read my book, there are a few people who I trust with their observations and opinions and they are invaluable in assisting me with coming up with a "fair" ranking for the Indians prospects. Two of those individuals, Art and Norman, are older gentlemen who have been following baseball much longer than I have and happen to be out in Goodyear at the moment. Here is their summary of the action on the field at minor league camp from yesterday (Monday):

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A big hello from the Indians Spring training prison compound in Goodyear, Arizona. I met up with Art Gold today and we spent a terrific day viewing some drills in the AM and the AAA and AA games with the Brewers. Art will probably post later so I get to tell my lies first.

First and foremost, viewing anything at the minor league fields varies from impossible to lousy. The compound has enough wire fences to have the feel of a Hogans Heroes or Stalag 13 set. Fields 3-6 don't necessarily allow viewing of the game because of blocked access or terrible viewing angles so Art and I opted for the AAA and AA games. I was not happy because three of the draftees that I went to see specifically, Cook, Haley and House, were on the limited viewing fields. The fields were also designed by someone who should have been more familiar with Arizona weather, especially the winds. Field 1, the AAA had sand blowing in from behind third base. I sympathize with Hodges and RH pitchers. Conditions were not ideal. Be charitable when you see Hodges 2 errors because he made some fine plays. Our viewing angle was so difficult it was hard to tell if some difficult plays should have been made. But enough complaining and on to the good stuff.

I focused on a few players on each field in particular. Art and I met the Cubbie pitcher from yesteryear, Joe Bollinger, who is now the agent for Joe Smith and Jon Holt. We talked extensively about his clients and pitching in general. We also met a couple of Kinstonites, who are club employees, that follow the club everywhere and got the dirt on every player who has been to Kinston. After Art left, I sat with "Mayday" Meloan's fiance and got loads of information on what it is like to come to Cleveland from another organization.

On to the AAs. I would like to dispel any feelings that anyone has that Rondon has a ceiling as a middle of the rotation starter. He is an absolute load and totally dominated the Brewers. Our angle did not allow us to appreciate his finer niceties but all you really had to do was watch the Brewer swings. We just watched the tail end of his outing in our field switching but Bollinger said he was just as sharp in the early innings. I am sure people are tired of hearing me about Carlos Rivero but this kid has come a long way and is real polished. Very advanced in his approach to the game. Handles himself very professionally in his positioning and had no lapses in focus that he showed in the past. He may have the greatest potential upside of any position player in the organization. He did hit a HR but I was impressed even more by his approach at the plate on off-speed and breaking pitches. Although I was not especially interested the others on the field, here are some impressions. Beau Mills did not have a good day and we could hardly see him. We did have a good view of Goedert who works very hard at everything. He has some skills but is unlikely to be an impact player. I suspect organization status by year end.

Now for Holt who Bollinger was there to see. It was easy to see he was not the same pitcher he was in college. He had lost zip off the fast ball which wasn't high power to begin with. His breaking ball and change-up were not sharp. He always threw strikes but missed very few bats. Bollinger caught the fact his front shoulder was staying low in his setup and did not necessarily get back to square during the pitching motion. The consequence is that he "drags the arm" because it is late to his body motion. Excellent mechanics and well coached otherwise. I would think his future hangs in the balance this year.

We also had a nice talk about Joe Smith with Bollinger. I watched Smith pitch an inning on Sunday in Tucson but Bollinger did not make the trip. He says his client feels like he is way behind because he missed two weeks, especially in the development of his change. I was really surprised when he said Smith might not go north with the team and stay to work on the change against LHs. Not sure that makes sense to me but Shapiro wasn't there asking for my advice. If anyone has any questions about other players on the AA squad, please feel free to ask. Just because they are not on my personal radar doesn't mean I didn't watch.

Moving on to AAA. This kid Santana might just have a future. I was surprised by his speed. Definitely not Victor like. My special attention was reserved for Weglarz, Hodges and Valbuena. Art does not believe Weglarz is going to be a big slugger. I am not sure I agree but understand his point. Very disciplined and country big. Major improvement in his OF defense. He does remind me of Thome (Art as well). I was a little surprised by how well he moves now. He is not a slug on either offense or defense which I wouldn't have said when he was at LC. I know Hodges made 2 errors but the conditions were difficult for 3B, SS and RHers. I thought he showed improvement, especially to his glove side. Probably going to get a few huzzahs but I think he will be an average ML 3B defensively. I think it likely he will have an above average bat. Reasonably selective and squares up nicely on the ball. Stays in plane with a good load. Valbuena is a ballplayer. Offensively and defensively, he is close to ML ready. If you like Baerga, I think you will love this guy. Just a better athlete and he has pop. Again, feel free to ask specifics.

Now for Mayday. As I said, I spent time during the game with his long time (seven years) fiance. Got a real perspective on organizational differences with the Dodgers. First, his performance. They have really slowed down his motion. Looks almost awkward now. Looks to me like he is "dragging his arm" a bit as well. She said he is concerned that it is costing him 2-3 mph on his fastball. He was sent down early so that he could work on certain things, not because they have big doubts about his upside. He only gave up one hit, a windblown fly to right (30 knot winds). Not what I would call sharp though even though he used his 3 pitch mix. She said he would not be a happy camper at home tonight. Now for the good stuff. They are overjoyed to be with the Indian organization. The atmosphere is much better and the organization gets big kudos in being candid with the prospects. Says the AAA crowd is closer than anything he had with the Dodgers. More damning, IMO, is that she said the Dodgers never told him why they moved him to starter. Apparently, they just needed a starter and he was it. She thinks it really screwed him up. Lost the ability to hit mid 90s and late movement on his slider when moved to starter. Recaptured most of his stuff after trade.

PS Promised that I would mention that Art guided the Brewer players to the field. What a master of the Goodyear complex! I was awestruck at his vast knowledge.

Many thanks to Norman and Art for being the eyes (and ears) for all of us while we are in Cleveland.

9 comments:

Very informative report! Thanks.

I had a question about the your last sentence in the paragraph about AAs. You wrote, "I suspect organization status by year end." Was this about Goedert or about the team? And more importantly, what do you mean?

Not to answer for Norm, but "organizational status" implies the guy will just be a minor league depth guy peaking at AAA/AA with little chance to make it to the bigs.

You can always answer for me, Tony. That way I am always diplomatic. And he is right, that is exactly what I meant.

Outstanding stuff! Insanely jealous that I did not make it down there this year...but sucks that the access is so restricted. That was always one of the huge pluses of the spring...great chance to get an up close and personal look at the younger guys. Thanks for the 1st hand info though guys!!!

Great stuff thanks. This is looking way too far in the future but do you see either Hodges or Valbuena having an edge for the open infield spot next year? I imagine they will both be ready.

Hey guys, just got into Sacramento, so I haven't had time to post my comments, but I generally agree with what Norm says in his write up.

A couple of responses and clarifications from my perspective.

In looking a lot at Weglarz I see a batter who looks more like a Greg Luzinski, Ryan Klesko, Kent Hrbek or Tim Salmon type of batting projection to me, as oppose to a Jim Thome or Carlos Delgado. In other words a good major league player, but just a bit short of a superstar type of offensive performer. While his batting eye is certainly great, I suspect that his potential won't be sufficiently intimidating to prevent pitchers from challenging him more at the upper levels.

Regarding Hodges, I really liked what I saw of him in Goodyear. He had some challenges playing in a dust storm, but generally looked decent around the bag. Seems to have some footwork issues when going towards SS, but when he goes to the line or comes in he seems to be pretty smooth.

If looking at Hodges vs Valbuena, at this moment it is pretty close, but I'd probably go with Hodges, meaning you leave Peralta at SS (where I think he is actually pretty decent), and ACab at 2nd.

Of course, I probably could give some better and more accurate perspectives if I wasn't watching "prison yard" baseball. If they don't fix this a bit, I don't know if I'll do this as an annual event. Too much effort and cost to be so far removed from the action (and would it kill them to provide just a little bit of shade?

One thing I became aware of over the winter is that Rondon had some significant problems last year with men on base. His batting average against with men on was around 100 points higher.

In looking at the box score of his last game, it didn't look like he had many base runners. But, did you notice any difference in approach/stuff when he had men on? Do you know if he's working on that aspect of his game?

DetDawg, they do a lot of situational work with all pitchers, I didn't notice any special work with Rondon.

You sure you have the right pitcher identified though? I just did a quick check of my notes and I didn't have that highlighted for last year, and it is one of the attributes I specifically search for in evaluating year end stats.

I went back and took a look at the splits database for last season, to see if I just missed this, and it shows Rondon with at BA against of .234 with none on, .244 with runners on base, and .261 with RISP. Looking at Rondon's WHIP, it also tracks fairly consistently too, with a WHIP of 1.24 with none on, 1.07 with runners on base, and 1.26 with RISP.

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