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Friday, April 1, 2011

IPI Roundtable: 2011 Indians outlook and predictions

Another baseball season kicks off today when the Chicago White Sox invade Progressive Field and take on the Cleveland Indians at 3:05 PM.

There has not been much new to talk about since the conclusion of last season almost six months ago, but all that changes today as new storylines will begin to unfold.  Starting today we get to experience all the twists, turns, ups, and downs that are the thrill ride of a long baseball season.

Yes, baseball is back.

The Tribe is young and hungry and there is good reason to have optimism – or guarded optimism – for what they can accomplish this season.

With that in mind, let’s take one last look at the team as they get set to start the season. We gathered all the contributors together from the IndiansProspectInsider.com to get their thoughts, opinions, and predictions on the upcoming season.  Here is what everyone had to say:

Tony Lastoria: This season is very important for the Indians to use as a springboard to any potential success in the near future.  In the early going there will be a reliance on some veterans while the organization finishes off a few prospects in Triple-A Columbus, but come July this team should start to take shape and establish a core of players to hopefully get back into contention in 2012.

One of the biggest keys to this season is finding out about integral pieces to the team such as Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco, and Justin Masterson.  The Indians need to determine if those players are core pieces of the puzzle going forward, or if they will need to move onto Plan B, C, and D at those positions.  The starting pitching may be the biggest weakness and concern going into the season as everyone in the rotation is an unknown due to inexperience or inconsistency.  They definitely have some very interesting talent in the likes of Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco and Justin Masterson, but until they can prove to be consistent performers the jury is still out on all of them as front to middle of the rotation starters.

With the starting pitching being such an unknown, the Indians will be hard-pressed to make any sort of realistic run this season.  However, they have an improved infield defense, a deeper bullpen, and a quickly developing offense which may emerge as one of the best in the game, so there is no doubt that going into the season they stand a good chance of being one of the most improved clubs in baseball.

There is no doubt the Indians have a lot of talent, the problem at the moment is a lot of that talent has yet to meet expectations and has not been realized.  If they can start to tap into their talent pool and have some luck, this season has the potential to be a fun and even exciting one because of the hunger of youth and the talent potential this team truly does have.  A full season of Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera in the lineup will certainly help, as will the improved health of Travis Hafner and eventual return of Grady Sizemore.  Add to that the debut of third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall and maybe even Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis at second base, and the Indians really have the makings of a good lineup.  Add to that the depth of arms they have in the rotation and bullpen, and anything is possible.

In the end, I see this season much like 2004 where the Indians emerge and establish themselves as contenders starting next season.  They may even hang around in July and August as a division or wildcard contender, but in the end should finish in the middle of the pack of the AL Central.

Record: 80-82
Team MVP: Carlos Santana

Nino Colla: Maybe it is the rapidly approaching season starting adrenaline that is talking here, but I feel pretty good about the Cleveland Indians opportunity to be a dark horse in 2011. Of course those hopes stand more of a chance of being destroyed a week from now than they do of shining through. I still like what this team is bringing to the table, despite being in more of a rebuilding mode.

As much as they are in a rebuild and as much as the roster has turned over with six free agents making the squad, there is a lot of the same. For one, the rotation is close to what started the season last year and even closer to what finished. Fausto Carmona has now owned up to his ace billing and can be the man for now, and the supporting cast behind him has potential. The bullpen has some depth, despite some injuries, and may be poised to dip into a nice tank of youthfully strong arms. The lineup has its questions but a healthy Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo can be delightful. Throw in a possible return to somewhat decent form by Grady Sizemore and hopeful bumps in production from youngsters like Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley, and a few questions become strengths.

First off, I like Carlos Santana to have a fantastic year and Shin-Soo Choo to be a big benefactor of that as teams will no longer be able to just avoid him. That also may give Travis Hafner an opportunity to square up a few more pitches than he's been used to the past few years. In the pitching department, I'm looking forward to Carlos Carrasco taking a step in the right direction now that he's got major league experience and some confidence down.

With Austin Kearns in left to start the season and if Grady Sizemore has any complications or struggles, I worry about where they go if Sizemore or Kearns can't get the job done. I also wonder how long the Indians will go with Justin Masterson in the rotation if he is inconsistent like he was last season as they stand to have a few options this year in the rotation. While I like the options in the bullpen, especially the guy slamming the door shut, the lefties worry me. Rafael Perez is usually a slow starter and that could hurt a lot if he does it again. Tony Sipp has shown flashes but he has been inconsistent.

Ultimately the key for this team will be how their offense rebounds from last season and if someone like Sizemore returns to form. They can compete offensively with out him but if he is going, Choo and Santana are hitting, and someone else around them breaks out (Matt LaPorta, hello!) then big things can happen. The commitment to adding capable defensive players this offseason will pay off, not only for the defense not being terrible but the pitching as well. That is less of a concern than it was last year, even though it will be aided by temporary veterans.

With everything considered, I think that leads to the Indians putting up a record somewhere around .500. The optimist in me says it will be north of that, but of course the doom and gloom voice in my head says it will be south of that. I really am too much of a hopeful person, so I pick the happy outcome and the realist in me says that they are at least better than last year.

Record: 81-81 (3rd)
Team MVP: Fausto Carmona

Gregory Dew: There are quite a few reasons for optimism on the Indians this year, beginning up the middle.  Carlos Santana should establish himself as one of the best catchers in all of baseball.  Asdrubal Cabrera will return to the 2009 version of himself at shortstop.  Provided all goes well in AAA, Jason Kipnis will become a fixture at second base in the second half of the year after Orlando Cabrera is shipped to a contender.  In center field Michael Brantley will prove to be a solid major leaguer, holding down the position until Grady Sizemore returns.  Sizemore will struggle this year but ultimately shake the effects of his injuries and have a strong finish to the season, setting him up for a big 2012.

Staying in the outfielder, Shin-Soo Choo will be the team MVP, continuing his established All-Star level of play although he has probably reached a plateau as to how good he can be.  On the bench, provided he stays healthy, Travis Buck will be the big surprise of the season, gaining more and more playing time as the season wears on.  Other points of light include pitchers Fausto Carmona and Carlos Carrasco as well as Chris Perez who will prove to be one of the 2 or 3 best closers in baseball.  On the horizon, Lonnie Chisenhall will join Kipnis in the lineup during the second half of the year and prove to the Indians that the future at the hot corner is set.

Unfortunately, this team is going to be held back by a woeful lack of power.  Matt LaPorta may still figure out his swing but it is looking more and more like he will never be the player he was expected to be.  If LaPorta doesn’t improve the Tribe will need to find some sort of power going forward, although as the Giants proved last year teams can win without prodigious power.  On the other hand the Giants have great pitching, which the Indians do not have.  Carmona and Carrasco may be solid points of light, but they are not stars nor is anybody else on the staff.  This year will see Justin Masterson continue to struggle with left-handed hitters and prove he is better suited in the bullpen.  Josh Tomlin will eat some innings, but Mitch Talbot is going to flame out.  The only hope with him is that he can hold out from being a complete disaster until Alex White is ready to be promoted from Columbus.

Looking at where the 2011 Cleveland Indians sit, it appears the organization is behind schedule on their stated goal of contending in 2012.  They are not off track, just a little tardy in their development.  2011 is going to be a year of finding out just how far behind they still are, but it will also be a year of progression.  The 2011 Tribe will be better than the teams of the last two years.  Look for the team to be competitive and playing around with a .500 record during some months, slightly lower than .500 other months.

Record: 76-86
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Shoo

Jason Eddy:  The Indians bullpen should continue their late season 2010 success into the 2011 season. Indians fans should be excited to have a closer such as Chris Perez at the back end of the bullpen. Perez was one of the top closers in the game the second half of last season, and he will be a major upgrade at a much cheaper price than Kerry Wood was over the last two seasons. The Tribe has proven arms throughout the rest of bullpen with some exciting options in Triple-A Columbus. The player to watch early in the season will be Vinnie Pestano as he needs to prove himself in April in order to keep his spot once Joe Smith is healthy.

With Gold Glove winner Orlando Cabrera up the middle with Asdrubal Cabrera, the Indians pitchers can continue their pitch to contact approach. Fausto Carmona will more than likely lead the league in double plays induced with that double play combination. Jack Hannahan was 3rd in the AL in fielding percentage in 2008 during his only full season at the position and he is a defensive upgrade for the Tribe. LaPorta needs to continue to develop his defense to give the Indians one of the top defensive infields in the AL. They aren’t Fryman, Vizquel, and Alomar, but with the lack of very many strikeout pitchers in the starting rotation the defense might be the key to the Indians success.

As much as I want the rotation to do well, it certainly is a weakness for the Tribe. Most prognosticators are saying that Carmona has it all figured out, but he has to show some consistency from year to year to prove himself as a top of the rotation starter. After Carmona, there are many unproven performers. The Indians decided not to sign a veteran starting pitcher in the offseason, so they will have to live with the growing pains of the youthful starting pitching corps.

On the offensive side of things there are not many hitters that strike fear into the opponent.  Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Santana, and hopefully a rebounding Grady Sizemore have the ability to drive in runs in bunches, but after them there is a whole lot of hoping going on that Travis Hafner and Matt LaPorta will make something out of the 2011 season.  I’m sure Manny Acta will be preaching what all baseball coaches do: manufacture runs. The 2011 version of the Indians is built on solid hitters that will have to make timely hits, and the Tribe will have to score in a high percentage of situations with less than two outs and runners in scoring position.

I believe that the Indians will be over .500 and hover near the playoff hunt through August. Many of the experts have the Tribe winning around 74 games, but I feel that the pitching and the young hitters will develop as the season progresses. It would be great to see some of the Indians young prospects get some meaningful at bats while they are still in the playoff hunt this summer. I believe that the Indians success this year along with the introduction of players like Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis will leave Indians fans fired up over the winter for a playoff run in 2012.

Predicted Record: 82-80 (3rd place)
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

Jeff Ellis:  Last season I did pretty well on the minor league aspect of these predictions, but will admit I failed pretty badly on the major league aspect. I did learn an important lesson from this failure: never underestimate starting pitching. As the Indians begin this season, our rotation has more question marks than last year. Carmona is the safest bet, but I wonder if he can keep himself on track two years in a row. Will Masterson be the pitcher he was at the end of the year, or the pitcher he was most of the year who also struggled with lefties? Is Carrasco going to step up and be the pitcher people have thought he could be since he was 19 years old? Is Josh Tomlin going to turn into a lesser version of Jake Westbrook? Is Talbot going to pitch like he did in the first half or struggle like he did in the second half after his injury?

In terms of players to watch this year the three that came to mind are Matt LaPorta, Travis Buck, and Justin Masterson. Buck is a player I was excited to see the Indians sign because he is a talented player who has had his career slowed by injuries. He was once ranked the 50th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America, and he finally seems healthy and killed the ball this spring.  I expect him to wrestle the left field spot away from Austin Kearns and hold it down until Grady Sizemore returns.

In terms of a less risky pick for break out player I am picking Matt LaPorta. He has been slow to reach the potential most thought he had, but I think part of this is due to Eric Wedge's bad mishandling of LaPorta when he was first called up in 2009 and could also be due to the yo-yo nature of his promotions. LaPorta has destroyed AAA pitching and I think he is way too talented to not be a major league player. This year is the year I expect him to break through and lead this team in homers as I predict him to break the 30 home run barrier and show that he is the player the Indians expected in return for C.C. Sabathia.

In terms of a player who I think will disappoint, it is Justin Masterson. I think he is a fantastic player, but I think he ends up in the bullpen. Masterson destroys righties but still has major trouble with lefties, and that lack of effectiveness versus lefties is why he may not remain a starter.  Against lefties his walk rate doubles, his strike out right is halved, and his FIP is nearly two runs higher. Other teams realize this and loaded up the lefties against him.

As an Indians fan this year, I am excited as the waves of talent are finally going to start hitting the majors.  This is the deepest minor league system for the team I have ever seen, and the downside of this is it is hard to get everyone looks. I don't expect to see a .500 season because of the questions I still have with our starters, but it is also because I expect to see a lot of different looks this year. Everything should be done this year not for wins, but to set up for a playoff run in 2012 or 2013 when the bigger name prospects are on the team and our roster is more settled and positions are defined. The fun in this year should be is seeing a lot of great talent, and seeing who is going to nail down positions for this year and beyond. 

Team Record: 77-85
Team MVP: Choo

Lianna Holub: The 2011 edition of the Cleveland Indians are going to have a decent year. They will not win the AL Central, but I believe that they will compete well within the division. The team has a lot of talent, but it is up to them to conform and play up to their potential. I think they will finish with a win total between 70 and 75 wins. Seventy-five wins may be a little optimistic, but the potential is there.

One of the many keys to the team’s success (or downfall) will be Matt LaPorta. He needs to put the Sabathia trade behind him and move on. Once he does that, he will be a great edition to the Indians for years to come. I expect him to improve on the abysmal .221 average of 2010 with a respectable .270 average and also drive in 60 runs.

Another key will be the starting rotation, which will determine whether they are a 65 win team or an 80 win team. After Fausto Carmona there are a lot of question marks in the rotation. Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin are unproven as big leaguers, Mitch Talbot pitched like Jekyll and Hyde last year, and Justin Masterson is inconsistent as a starter.  If two or three starters perform above expectations, the Indians should be successful.

Finally, the key to any sports team is staying healthy. Grady Sizemore is set to return mid-April, and Carlos Santana is fully healed from the nasty collision he suffered at home plate last year. Those two are two-thirds of the three offensive cornerstones (Choo being the other) in the line-up. If everyone in the line-up is healthy, it will be a force to be dealt with.  I believe the Indians will continue to develop this year, and this season will be an enjoyable one to watch.

Team Record: 70-75 wins
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

Alex Painter:  The Cleveland Indians enter the 2011 season with many question marks regarding their somewhat “mixed bag” roster.  The combination of oft-injured players, unproven veterans youngsters and journeymen do not have many members of the media believing this team is anywhere near competing for the deep American League Central.  The pitching staff seems to be in flux as well, with one proven but inconsistent starter (Fausto Carmona) anchoring a staff with several young hurlers.

One major key for the Indians this season is to simply stay healthy. Last season, stalwarts Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis Hafner were all bit by the injury bug. Newcomer Carlos Santana’s brilliant rookie campaign was cut short after a collision at home plate after only 46 games of action. With Sizemore starting the season on the disabled list, look for backups Austin Kearns and Travis Buck to fill in admirably until he returns and add depth in the outfield this season. Buck had an excellent Spring Training and could be a dark horse player for the Indians that could make a splash this season. Another major key is that the important players from major trades begin paying the team back in production. Players such as Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco among others are key building blocks to the team’s youth movement, and overall team success.

Expect bounce-back years from Sizemore, Cabrera and Hafner, as well as breakout years from Brantley and Masterson. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo should continue to shine as a five-tool ball player, and emerge into the elite ranks of the Major Leagues. The veteran free agent signings of infielder Orlando Cabrera and pitcher Chad Durbin should help stabilize the team. Despite the starting pitching not being stellar on paper, the Tribe has a capable bullpen that ranked second in the American League in ERA the second half of last season. Closer Chris Perez should push his second half success last season into a full 2011 season.

With another year under the belt of their youngsters and with the Indians being much healthier this season, a 10-15 game improvement in the win column is not out of the question; particularly since the Indians only won 69 games last season. Although they may not be ready to compete this season, do not count them out in the near future.

Record: 78-84
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

Jim Pete:  If nothing else, the 2011 season should prove to be an interesting one for the Cleveland Indians.  It's likely that the organization is a year away from being legitimate contenders, but if they can avoid injuries, get solid contributions from their veteran leadership, get a boost from players returning from injury, and continue to develop their core future, there could be more than a few pleasant surprises this year.  I know, I know, not asking for too much, am I?

The Tribe can only go as far as their pitching staff, and to say that there are questions would be a gross understatement.  The key to the staff success lies in the gifted right arm of Fausto Carmona.  At his best, he's one of the top five pitchers in the American League, and there is hope that he is finally returning to the form that saw him challenge for the Cy Young in 2007.  Past Carmona, however, there are tons of question-marks.  Will Carlos Carrasco continue his development into a top-end starter, or turn into the Andy Marte of pitchers?  Will Justin Masterson finally put to rest all of the questions about whether or not he should start, or relieve?  Is Mitch Talbot free agent fodder, or the guy that started the 2010 season like a house on fire?  Is Josh Tomlin really a #4 starter, or even a #5?  If the Indians starters can manage optimum output, it still may only be a marginal staff.  Still, if Carmona can be the stopper the Indians need, the dominoes could begin to fall into place.  The good news is that there is a bunch of talent waiting in the wings either for late 2011, or early 2012.  Lets hope the boost is for a pennant run.

The offense really could turn into something special, which says a lot from one of the worst offenses in 2010.  Shin Soo Choo is the best player in baseball that nobody has ever heard of.  This year, he won't be the only anchor, as he's been for the better part of 2 1/2 seasons.  Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and ultimately Grady Sizemore should return to give the Tribe a solid nucleus in the middle of the line-up.  What's most intriguing to me is the parts around these four players.  Will Matt LaPorta turn into the bomber we expected when we dealt CC, or will he just bomb?  Is Michael Brantley the next great Tribe lead-off hitter, or is he Alex Cole?  Is Hafner really an every day player, or will he continue to play like a one-armed bandit?  The big question?  How long until Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall jailbreak this line-up?  If Santana stays healthy, his big year is etched in stone.  Combine that with Choo's sublime play, and it really could open the door for LaPorta to turn into the special player he can be.  With Brantley, Cabrera and ultimately Sizemore setting the table, the Tribe offense could be eating a lot of offensive dinner in 2011.

The best part of this team may just be the bullpen.  Chris Perez is the unquestioned closer of this team, and he looks like a good one.  Beyond Perez, Chad Durbin is the only player over the age of 28.  When did Rafael Perez become the elder statesman of this bullpen?  He quietly regained some consistency last year, and that really sets the tone for the rest of the pen.  Tony Sipp  was lights out in the spring, and may be on the perch of reaching some of that potential that was lumped on him a few years ago as the "closer of the future."   The meat of this pen may be the early guys, with Vinnie Pestano, Frank Herrman and Justin Germano.  They were virtually untouchable in the spring, following solid minor league careers.  With Jess Todd and Bryce Stowell (among others) waiting in the wings in Columbus, there are plenty of arms to go around, and promising ones to boot.

Overall, I believe this team will be better than people think.  The real key is that starting pitching.  If the bullpen can bail them out until help arrives, or until consistency is reached, the Indians could REALLY surprise some teams.  Do I expect the Indians to make a run at a World Title this year?  Absolutely not, but I do think they can make a run at the wildcard at the very least, and will undoubtedly win more than 82 games this year.  Get on at the bottom floor folks, the 2011 Tribe are going to be heading up quickly.

Team record: 84-78 (2nd)
Team MVP: Carlos Santana

Andrew Zajac: In what's sure to be one of the youngest teams in baseball, the 2011 Cleveland Indians will go through some growing pains this season. At the same time I firmly believe they may also open up a lot of eyes this season as well.  Carlos Santana will look to build off of a solid rookie performance and I expect big things from him in his first full year at the major league level. Fan favorite Shin-Soo Choo will be the center piece to this lineup once again and will put up big numbers again this season. A player who I believe will burst onto the scene this season will be Michael Brantley. He may not have an all-star caliber year, but look for his numbers to improve and for him to be more productive than last season.  But questions still remain.  Can Matt LaPorta live up to his potential and all of the hype he had as a prospect?  What will Grady Sizemore contribute to this team and can he stay healthy? What Travis Hafner will we see? Time will tell.

As bad as the pitching may be this season, the Indians have the offense to keep them in games. The rotation leaves a lot to be desired aside from Fausto Carmona. Mitch Talbot left quite a bit to be desired during spring training and Carlos Carrasco has yet to be able to keep the ball in the yard. On the positive side of things I expect a much more consistent season from Justin Masterson and look for him to settle into the rotation.  Despite his spring training struggles, the sleeper of the pitching staff is Carlos Carrasco. It's time for him to prove himself.  As far as the bullpen goes I expect another monster season from Chris "Pure Rage" Perez. I can easily see a 39 save season from him with an ERA around 2.50. The back-end of the bullpen could be solid with Chad Durbin, Tony Sipp, and Rafael Perez, and you can also throw Joe Smith into the mix once he returns from the disabled list. The other bullpen spots will be in limbo throughout the season with Vinnie Pestano, Frank Herrmann, Justin Germano, Jensen Lewis, and Jess Todd all vying to be with the big league club.

I wouldn't put my money on the Indians finishing at .500 or above this season, but that should be their ultimate goal. Realistically, I see a 72-74 win season for them. This season is more about seeing where our pieces fit going forward so we can contend in 2012 and beyond. Players have a lot to prove this season and so does Manny Acta. I'm not concerned about wins and losses this season. I simply want to see our young guys develop and prove this team can contend going forward.

Record: 72-74 wins
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

2 comments:

Where is Johan Pino being slotted for this coming season?

I've always tried to check up on his stats from time to time. Except for last year, he's always been a solid, under-the-radar pitcher with solid ERA's and good K/BB ratios.

Seeing the stacked rotation at AAA, has he been moved to the Bullpen? Or was he released?

Pino is an extra arm and may open up the season on the reserve list in Columbus. Lots of arms to fit in to a 11-12 man pitching staff....will be interesting to see what the official roster is to start the season.

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