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Thursday, April 7, 2011

2011 Columbus Clippers Preview: Title Defense

(Photo: Columbus Clippers)
Last season in Columbus, we were treated to ½ a season of Carlos Santana, a near wire-to-wire run in 1st place in the IL-West and, most importantly, an International League and AAA-National Championship. Yes, 2010 was a great season at Huntington Park and a great season for the Indians organization as multiple prospects graduated to Cleveland and multiple lower-level prospects got some time at Columbus to begin prepping for the future with the big league club.

Going in to 2011, the Clippers are stocked with two of the top infield prospects in Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis, (ranked 3rd and 4th at their positions nationally) and top pitching prospect: Alex White. While, he isn't going to pitch much this year because of Tommy John surgery last August, Hector Rondon is another prospect sitting at the AA/AAA edge and looking to make the jump up to a big league pitcher.

You won’t see Rondon on any top 10 lists because of poor performance preceding an injury last season, but often times poor performance is due to an unknown injury and it is simply a matter of time for it to manifest itself to the point that they need to go on the DL. I am among those who still believe his career minor league SO/9 (8.0) and SO/BB (4.2) were the real deal.  Following a season lost to injury, he will still only be 23 year old once he gets back on the mound.

If you read any prospect and system ranking from the national media this year, you are likely to hear the words “depth” and “major-league caliber” associated with the Indians’ system. The Clippers are no different this year than last as the Clippers have young prospects that are expected to be solid/impact contributors in Cleveland (apart from catcher and outfield, where the parent club has called-up the young guys).

Cord Phelps joins Kipnis and Chisenhall as second half call-up candidates in the infield (sooner, if the Indians can get hot early) and Zach Putnam, Bryce Stowell, Josh Judy and Jess Todd are all waiting for their turn in the Indians bullpen. White is joined by Jeanmar Gomez as potential pieces in the future starting rotation. Corey Kulber, Zach McAllister, and David Huff are all options for spot starts at the big league level and should pitch deep into games for the Clippers. They could easily work in swing roles as well.

While the Clippers have a long road back to the IL-crown, they have the horses to do it. With a glut of AAA/MLB talent in the system; injuries, graduations and demotions will keep Columbus stocked with high-talent players who are itching to prove themselves for the entire season.

FEARLESS PREDCTIONS:

Projection:
1st place in IL-West, 80-64

Biggest Contributor (1st half):
Lonnie Chisenhall, he will be lacing liners all over the place prior to a late June call-up where he sticks for good. Except for the speed component of the game, he will sport a line and overall value similar to Choo’s. (280/375/520) with average/above-average defense at third base.

Biggest Disappointment (1st half): Alex White, his great fastball-splitter combo finally aren’t enough to generate outs, he spends most of the first-half working out a third pitch as he stalls (momentarily) in his progression towards the Majors. (4.50 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9)

First Call-Up (non-injury): Josh Judy, his potent slider will be the strikeout-inducing weapon that the big league club will need and that will prove he has little left to learn at AAA. He comes up to Cleveland in May to replace Justin Germano and pitches about league average as he learns how to attack big league hitters. Look for a high K/9 when he first gets up, but a higher than normal BB/9 as well as he dances around some of the more polished and feared bats at the ML level.

Help is coming (not necessarily a good thing for the system): Mitch Talbot, after getting knocked out early a couple times by the Red Sox (ed. note: Boston forced him out in 4 1/3 IP, 3BB, 102 pitches Wednesday night) and Angels and then pitching well enough against the Royals and then finally getting dinged by the Twins and Tigers in back-to-back sub-five inning starts, Talbot heads down I-71 to work the kinks out. Until he avoids the walks, and learns that he can’t pitch up in the zone, he is going to continue to give up extra-base hits and have the free-passes burn him.

Full-Season Stat Leaders:

HR - Chad Huffman
RBI – Wes Hodges
Runs – Ezequiel Carrera
SB – Ezequiel Carrera
AVG – Cord Phelps
OBP - Nick Weglarz
SLG - Chad Huffman

Wins – Zach McAllister
ERA – David Huff
K’s – David Huff
WHIP – Zach Putnam
Saves – Zach Putnam

3 comments:

Tony,

I'm not sure I see Talbot travelling down I-71. Not because he won't or shouldn't be replaced by McAllister, Huff or Gomez, but because he's out of options. IMO, he probably doesn't get through waivers. That may or may not keep him in Cleveland longer than his performance justifies.

You're comments about White seem to imply he shouldn't be in Columbus, but rather Akron. That's what I believe, as I don't think a pitcher should be in AAA if he needs to improve 1 or more pitches to major league quality. As an aside, this is what seems to have happened to Rondon in his AAA stint prior to injury.

I like your player/team forecasts. Gives us a better idea of you're perception of some of Cleveland's prospects.

As for the first callup, I think Putnam might beat Judy. Regardless, I think he's got a higher ceiling. But, as your forecast suggests, he may not be as advanced as Judy.

Hey, actually Charlie wrote this.

But as for I-71, I agree with him. If Talbot is not pitching well and the Indians have to make a change, no one is going to claim him and he will pass through waivers and go to Columbus.

I also believe Judy gets called up first. He is on the 40-man and Putnam is not.

Haha, thanks Tony, you beat me to it!

Call-up's are a combination of need and skill. Judy has the skill to induce strikeouts and provide relief at the ML-level sooner than Putnam. Putnam may end up the better pitcher when it is all said and done, though.

At the end of the season once every prediction is wrong, please direct heckling my way, Tony is merely the all-knowing moderator.

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