The affiliate that interests me the most to start the year is Kinston. The reason for that is the sheer amount of question marks for Kinston. Will Kipnis prove he can play 2B? How will Abreu bounce back from injury? How soon will De La Cruz get back into form and force his way to Akron? Alex White making his professional debut, Hagadone’s first full season in 3 years, and the continued growth of two prospects that are a bit under the radar to the typical fan in TJ House and Alexander Perez all add in to make for a very interesting team, to follow in Kinston.
Well, Kinston was an interesting to team to watch this year. Kipnis, De La Cruz, Hagadone, and White all forced their way to AA. In the end, of those four players White and Kipnis exceeded expectations while De La Cruz and Hagadone both were a little disappointing. The hope is that next year Hagadone will be able to go back to being a starter and that with another year removed from injury De La Cruz will become stronger. On the whole I have to admit I was disappointed in general by the players from Kinston. Of the major name players to start the year there, it felt to me that most didn’t live up to expectations or take a major leap forward.
The affiliate debut that I can’t wait to see is that of Bryan Price at Akron. Price is returning to the role he excelled at in college of a closer. I think he could be the best pen arm in the minors for the Indians. His lack of developing a third pitch led him back to the pen where he has two legit plus pitches. I expect him to establish himself as a top end CL prospect and be a player who is in the majors by mid season 2011.
Price started the year trying to make this look like a very foolish write up. He righted the ship and established himself as a top 20 spec and one of the many fine pen arms in the Indians system. He didn’t have the break out year I had hoped, but he also did not flame out. He won’t get that mid 2011 call up, as there are too many players ahead of him, but baring injury he will play a role in the Indians pen in the future.
The roster situation that I find the most interesting is the starting pitching in AAA. Every pitcher on that staff should see time in the majors this year and with the fact that at least 3 of the spots in the MLB rotation should be locked down for most of the year it is interesting to see who gets the call and when. Carrasco had a great spring and his repertoire of pitches might be the best of any pitcher in the system. Rondon was the break out pitcher last year and made most top 100 prospect lists. Gomez did the most of any pitcher last year to improve his stock. Lewis was the 5th starter for the team last year when it was expected to contend. Lastly is Pino who has pitched well at every level and could be a solid long option out of the pen for this team as soon as this year.
Carrasco took a while to make the majors, but now that he has he looks like he should stay. Rondon has had TJ surgery and there is debate about if he will be a starter going forward. It’s a shame he went from a top 100 spec in baseball to a guy who is now a more than a year away from even seeing the majors. Gomez was fantastic to start in the majors, but as we are seeing now he is not quite ready and will end up back in AAA more than likely next year, though you still have to love how every year he seems to prove his detractors wrong. Lewis is now out of baseball thanks to injuries and Pino seems to have been cast as a 4A player. For a group where I thought all five would see time in the majors, we only saw two. One is out of baseball another is stuck in AAA, and the last blew out his arm. It really ended up not being a good year for our starting staff in AAA.
The player I would like to see make a rebound is Beau Mills. The year before I had him in the top 5 prospects in the Indians system, he had won an MVP award and looked like a solid first base prospect. I hope he bounces back, not just to make the system better, but also because all year he will be hearing about Jason Heyward, a high school player who was taken one pick after him in the draft. Mills was an advanced college power bat, who was viewed as a possible top ten pick. Yet Mills is the one stuck in AA and Heyward who is the big name young player in baseball.
As much as I wanted to see Mills rebound, I think its safe to say he is well on his way to becoming a non spec. The biggest headlines he made all year were for getting in a fight. Just two years ago he was the MVP of the Carolina League and now he is getting pasted by guys straight out of college. He is not a top 30 prospect, and he might not make a top 50. I hate to say it, but at this point I am writing Mills off.
The strength of this system is starting pitching. Every starting pitcher spot in the system is filled with a real prospect; they even have had to take legit specs like Price and Popham who would normally be starters so they could just make their reps, but in the system right now there is no place for them. There is also a pitcher like Vidal Nuno who dominated last year in short season ball but is in extended spring training because there wasn’t a spot for him.
Pitching continues to be the calling card of the Indians minor league system. There are so many arms that even with all the injuries the Indians have reloaded and look even deeper than they were to start the year. The Indians seemed to realize they had so much talent pushing other talent, that for the first time in awhile they were quickly pushing pitchers up the minor league ladder. White has established himself as maybe the top arm in the system. When you add in all the arms this team added in the draft, it’s hard to not be even more impressed. I think it is only going to get better, and by this time next year Pomeranz will be the top arm in the system. The hope is now that the pitching is so deep that the Indians will be able to add some solid bats to a system that really lacks major league quality bats. This year's top 30 I think might end up being two pitchers for every one bat, and of those pitchers 80% will be starters.
The break out candidate most people will mention is Abner Abreu and while I agree, I wanted to pick a different player. I think another major break out candidate is Joe Gardner. His injury made many people forget about him last year, but before the draft he was listed as a top 100 player in the draft by some experts and I think his fastball is going to saw off a ton of bats this year. I think he will dominate at the level he is at now and go from a forgotten player to a top 20 prospect.
In the end to me this was a two horse race between Gardner on the pitching front and Chun-Hsiu Chen on the hitting front. Both were not considered top 30 guys to start the year, but by the end they are both in the 10-15 discussion. In the end I think I will go with Gardner though, partly because I picked him and partly because he had to overcome an injury which sidelined him for part of last year. While he might not be the top pitching prospect in the system, there is a good chance that Gardner will be the Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Tribe as that is based more on performance. He was a durable pitcher and while he relied heavily on the sinker, it is a plus pitch. It will be very interesting to watch Gardner next year as AA is the hardest adjustment level in the minors. The talent there is a lot better and it will be a major test for a player like Gardner. The players will lay off the borderline pitches and it will force him to use all his pitches and to refine his control. I expect he will step up, but it should not be a surprise if he does struggle a little to start next year.
So that's my look back. As the offseason continues, I will try to write more and hope to target some of the unsung players in the Indians minors who deserve some praise of the years they had this year.
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