As a quick sidenote, rather than give a longwinded prediction as to the success or failures of the 2010 Cleveland Indians, I will just say that I think this team will be better and more exciting than a lot of people think. It will be a rollercoaster of a ride this season, but by the same token I think there will be a lot to get excited about by the end of the season. It is going to be a lot of fun and frustrating at the same time watching this starting rotation and bullpen shake itself out, and in the end I am predicting they make some noise in August before finishing in third place in the division at 78-84. While they could surprise this season given the weak AL Central, no matter what happens I think it will be a good building block of a season for 2011 which I think is when they truly jump back into the contention ring.
Onto the inbox….
Aaron H. wrote: Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood, Russell Branyan and Jhonny Peralta could all be coming off the books soon. Possibly even Carmona after his contract ends in 2011, but it all depends on his success this season and next. With that said, does that money go to Choo, Cabrera and, if there is enough, Grady? I expect Choo and Cabrera to get signed soon, but Grady?
Me: If you look at the Indians payroll situation for the next seven years, you can definitely see that a lot of money is coming off the books after this season. After this season the Indians only have contract commitments of any kind to three players, Travis Hafner ($13M), Grady Sizemore ($7.7M), and Fausto Carmona ($6.3M) which totals about $27 million. For a team that in 2011 will likely operate with a payroll somewhere between $50-60 million, that offers them the potential to add anywhere from $25-35 million in payroll next year. Some of that I am almost positive will come in the form of new long term deals to young players nearing arbitration to carry them through their arbitration years and their first year or two of free agency. I would be very surprised if Asdrubal Cabrera is not locked up in this way, though I think Shin-Soo Choo will be a much more difficult task. In any case you can bet both get long term contract offers sometime this season, the only question will be whether they sign them. If Justin Masterson is doing well by the All Star break, he is another who may get one of those long term offers as well. In any case, these players are going to be with the Indians for at least four more seasons including the upcoming season, so it is not time to panic about them yet.
Even if they do sign Cabrera and Choo to long term deals, they are going to have a lot of flexibility next offseason to add some payroll and bring in free agents on somewhat expensive one year or possibly two year deals. The money saved from the likes of Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood, Jhonny Peralta, and Russell Branyan coming off the big league payroll next year will really help the Indians in their efforts to add some mid level free agents to fill gaps and to also extend players currently with the team. I don't anticipate Sizemore resigning to any kind of extension as he will likely test out the free agent waters. Because of that, the Indians may attempt to reach an extension with him next year sometime, but that seems like a long shot and it seems that barring something unexpected happening with Sizemore taking a lot less to stay here that he will be traded at some point during the 2012 season.
Frank wrote: Although he didn't pitch last season what is you're feeling on right-handed pitcher Joe Gardner? I looked at his college stats and saw an interesting theme. In almost 90 innings he had 19 hit batters but only gave up 3 home runs. It appears he will bust you inside but not leave the ball in the sweet zone. Might he start in Kinston?
Me: Gardner will open the season in the Low-A Lake County rotation. After he missed the chance to make his professional debut last year for short-season Single-A Mahoning Valley because of a minor injury which lingered, it all but locked him into a Lake County assignment to start this season. He was the Indians 3rd round pick in last year’s draft, so he obviously comes with some value since he was taken so high. He is still kind of raw on the mound so it will be very interesting to follow him this year with his development and performance. He throws a heavy sinking fastball which allows him to keep the ball down and the home runs to a minimum, and he is also not afraid to pitch inside. These two things are very important and something the Indians like to see with their young pitchers, so he is off to a good start at least from that perspective. Now it is just about seeing what he does and how he improves.
Rich S. wrote: Could the injury to Kerry Wood end up being beneficial to the Indians in that it will make it harder to finish enough games to automatically kick in his 2011 option? Wouldn't this make him more tradeable?
Me: I think the injury definitely benefits the Indians at least financially and from a trade perspective. There is now just about no way he will ever finish 55 games this year, and with that the Indians will not be bound to his $11 million option for 2011 which would have automatically vested with 55 or more games finishes this season. This also applies to any team which were to acquire him this year, so it certainly helps make him more attractive to any team in a potential trade knowing they won’t be on the hook for him past this year. A team can pick him up for the stretch run, and if he struggles or they are not impressed with him they can just decline his 2011 option. But, there is also the chance he fits in well and they like what they see, and they could always pick up the 2011 option. If he is healthy come July, I expect him to be highly sought not only because of what he could bring to a contending team’s pitching staff, but he would not cost a lot for three months and that team also would have control over him for 2011.
On the flipside, the injury really hurts the Indians at the moment. Initially I felt the injury actually helped them as it allowed them to get a longer look at right-hander Chris Perez as a closer and potentially some other arms in the pen. But, after thinking about it more, the injury was the worst thing that could happen to the bullpen to start the season. Now not only do you lose your closer, you also lose your setup man as Chris Perez was expected to be that guy. So you are not only finding out about your closer now, but you are also playing musical chairs and trying to find a setup man to start the season. It could be the recipe for a disaster in the bullpen to start the season, and having Wood in there to stabilize the pen and have everyone else fall in line behind him may have helped a lot more at least to start the season.
JeterCP wrote: Wow no one wanted [left-hander Jeremy] Sowers? Has his stock diminished that much? Surely you would think someone would have claimed him.
Me: It is not much of a surprise really to see Sowers clear waivers. First off he is somewhat damaged goods as he has battled shoulder soreness all of spring training. Secondly, he has largely been ineffective for most of his four year big league career. Last, and probably most importantly, other teams are also feeling the roster crunch as they were releasing players too in order to get their 25-man and 40-man rosters set. Had Sowers been designated for assignment in September or October, I think he may have been claimed. It was really just a good time to make a move on Sowers from the Indians point of view, and shows that sometimes contrary to what the fans may think the Indians may know a thing or two about roster manipulation. Plus, as fans, we tend to over value our own players anyway!
Dave wrote: [Right-handers] Dallas Cawiezell and Mike Pontius are surprise [cuts], at least in seeing BOTH of them released. Both have very good arms, and if I recall, Pontius was a highly regarded prospect just a season or two ago. What happened with these guys, Tony?
Me: It was just a numbers game that they didn’t win. After all of the trades the Indians have completed over the past year netted them some nice arms, it pushed a lot of their in-house guys down a notch or two, or in the case of Cawiezell and Pontius out of the organization. Last year Cawiezell was a bubble guy to be released after spring training, so it is not too much of a surprise to see him released, though he had nice size and a good arm in the pen. But I expected it because of the depth of pen arms at AAA/AA. In a different less deep system, he probably gets another year. As for Pontius, his injury last year really killed his prospect standing. He told me he was all the way back this spring, and the velocity was just about there, but in missing all that time it opened the door for a lot more players to jump him on the depth charts. In addition to that I was told he just did not have a very good spring. Injuries can often be a death sentence to a minor leaguer as if you are not playing someone else is getting a chance plus every year 30-50 new players are brought in via the draft or free agency to take their job.
Brock wrote: I thought [left-handed pitcher Kelvin] De La Cruz was going to be in Akron?
Me: De La Cruz was 50/50 for Double-A Akron to start the season, though if healthy he should still spend the majority of the season in Akron this year. You have to remember that he was slated at High-A Kinston to start last year and only made two starts before missing the rest of the season. Even though he pitched in Instructional League in the fall, the Indians consider Kinston the most important level for a player to develop at and with that they probably would like to see him make a few more starts there. They also likely want to see him get his season going, get his feet wet and back in top form, and then probably move up quickly by May/June to Akron.
Jake Taylor wrote: Any reason Vidal Nuno is with Extended Spring Training? The guy was absolutely lights out and isn't even good enough to grab a bullpen spot in Lake County? Is he hurt?
Me: No, Nuno is 100% healthy, at least to my knowledge. He definitely had a very good statistical performance last year, but unfortunately it didn’t change his view very much as a prospect. He is still a guy drafted out of the 48th round who doesn’t have very good stuff, he just competes well and throws strikes. There is still also a question as to whether him being a crafty left-hander and a little older may have helped him dominate hitters at the short-season and rookie ball levels. In any case, it was good to see how he performed last year as it surely put his name on the map, which for a lower level draft pick like him is all he could hope for in the early stages of his career. For now though, there are some other arms the Indians need to see at Lake County first as for one left-hander Chris Jones is in the pen there, but I think Nuno will be in Lake County (or Kinston) at some point fairly quickly. I mean, who do you take out of that Lake County bullpen? The problem at the moment is there are so many starters and several of them are now pitching in the bullpen, and as a result it is pushing some of the relievers back a level or to extended spring training. Injuries and performance issues always crop up the first month or two of the season, so I am sure we will see Nuno at some point in April or May.
Jake Taylor wrote: A bit surprised to see [right-handed pitcher Connor] Graham and [right-handed pitcher Paolo] Espino still starting, but should I assume that those 2, as well as [right-hander Zach] Putnam are likely ticketed for the bullpen in the near future?
Me: Graham is definitely in the starting rotation to start the season, though to be honest I am not 100% that Espino will be, but the way the pitching staff looks he looks like the favorite to hold down the fifth spot in the short term. Yes, all three of Graham, Espino, and Putnam are likely bound for a bullpen role, but the Indians really want to develop Putnam’s secondary stuff and they are really trying to refine Graham’s command of his fastball. The best place to do that is in the starting rotation where these guys can work on stuff for five to six innings an outing and at the same time develop a routine throwing every five days with a 30-40 pitch throwing session mixed in there on one of their off days. Espino is just keeping the rotation spot warm until Kelvin De La Cruz is eventually called up in May, and once that occurs he will probably go to the Akron bullpen.
Dave G. wrote: What does it mean when a pitcher is placed in extended spring training?
Me: Extended spring training runs from April to June. It's in Goodyear, the same place as regular spring training, and is where all the extra guys who don’t make full season teams continue to develop and work on things and play games to get ready for short season leagues which start up in June. I have an article on it that I will update and re-post next week.
Josh wrote: Is Jordan Brown back at first base?
Me: With the Indians need at first base, they are definitely keeping him in mind as a first baseman. Not an everyday guy, but someone who at best could platoon there at the big league level if a need arises. The Indians are thin at first base as they only really have Matt LaPorta available to play there everyday at the big league level, and it can be argued it is the weakest position in the system as far as true depth options go. Beau Mills is returning to Double-A Akron to continue his development, and if he has a better season this year than last he could enter into the everyday first base discussion at the big league level by the end of the season. But as for Brown, his best chance as an everyday player is left field, though when he makes the Indians’ roster he will likely rotate between left field, first base and designated hitter.
Brian wrote: It may be very difficult to whittle down that Akron bullpen from 10 to 7. Any ideas as to who gets sent down to EST?
Me: As for the ten relievers in Akron at the moment, the roster has not yet been finalized so some last minute changes can occur. Also, a pitcher or two could open on the disabled list, and if I had to guess right-hander Vinnie Pestano and left-hander Heath Taylor will at least to start the season since they are coming off severe arm injuries from last year. They have pitched well in spring training and are supposedly healthy, so I am just guessing with that as it is entirely possible they open the season in the bullpen. We will know one way or another in the next 48 hours. Remember that last year right-hander Carlton Smith opened the year in Akron as an extra bullpen guy and was not activated until late April, so three of the arms could just hang around the team for a short while before being activated. As we know, the bullpen situation in Cleveland and Triple-A Columbus will be in flux all year, and some big changes could occur within the first month of the season, so the extra arms on reserve in Akron may help.
Follow me on Twitter @tlastoria.
Everything on this site is free, but for those interested in making any monetary contributions to help support the stability and growth of this site please click on the "Donate" button below.
0 comments:
Post a Comment