The 411 On The Branyan Trade

It's been a little over 24 hours since the Indians traded first baseman Russell Branyan to the Seattle Mariners for two prospects in outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and infielder Juan Diaz. Here are some quick thoughts on the trade and info on the two players obtained, and I may have a follow up piece on this soon once I talk to more people today and tomorrow about the deal.

- I have not yet talked to the Indians about the deal itself (hope to later today), but I have to say from what I have heard from several industry sources around the league I have talked to in the past 24 hours that Seattle surprised everyone with this deal. The general feeling among team executives was that "Seattle would be sellers and not buyers", and the other surprise was that the Indians were actually able to trade off Branyan and "receive anything of value in return".

- The last time Seattle did something like this in picking up an Indians first baseman in a move to compete in the playoff race was in 2006 when the Indians traded their "Benuardo" platoon of Ben Broussard and Eddie Perez to them a few weeks apart.  The two deals netted them outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, so the Indians and their fans can only hope things work out that well again.

- The Branyan signing in February was odd at the time, but I have to say in hindsight the Indians made the right move by signing him. First baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta struggled the first two months and first baseman/outfielder Jordan Brown suffered a knee injury in spring training, so Branyan ended up a solid stop gap.  We also know how his addition helped manipulate some service clock issues, but really, it ended up a solid move and decision, one several people questioned at the time, and I have to give credit where it is due in this case. On top of that, we received two players in the deal that are interesting. They are not huge prospects by any means, but could be solid complimentary pieces to the big league team soon.  We often use hindsight to show how the Indians were wrong on moves, well it is only fair to use hindsight to say when they were right.

- Jason Churchill and I have talked a little since the trade. Those that don't know Jason, he runs the ProspectInsider.com site on the Mariners and is also a contributor on ESPN Insider. He too felt the trade was a little odd, though noted that he thinks it was a small price to pay to see if they can get back in the race and that if they can't then they will likely deal Branyan again before the deadline.  Here is his take on the deal (read the comments as well).

- My quick thoughts on the deal without any explanation from the Indians yet is this is a good move.  I like the Diaz pickup as we need some promising upside position players in the lower levels of the system.  I am not as high on the Carrera pickup, not because I dislike him (I like him), but because he seems redundant with the likes of Michael Brantley and Jose Constanza in Triple-A Columbus already.  My rash first impression is Carerra is a prospect who fits in somewhere between Brantley and Constanza, one where they think his ceiling is Brantley (Major League starter in center field) and that his floor is Constanza (4th outfielder).  It will be interesting to see how he fits into things, but I have to wonder if his pickup actually affects that of Trevor Crowe who has not impressed at all with his play defensively in center field and been inconsistent offensively.

The Prospects

Here are two detailed reports that Churchill provided to me on the two players received in the deal, outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and infielder Juan Diaz. He gave permission to re-port these in full, though I would welcome you to follow his stuff at ESPN Insider and also on his site at ProspectInsider.com:

Ezequiel Carrera, CF -- No. 20 in M's farm system pre-season

Carrera, a left-handed hitter, runs well, employs above-average strike zone judgment and makes consistent contact, even versus to-end pitching. He does need to improve his pitch recognition like many minor leaguers, but he covers the plate and gets hits to all fields.

The speed, maybe as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, helps him cover ground in center, and has enough arm strength to profile there. His instincts and routes grade out OK, but he relies on the foot speed to correct mistakes on reads, or he’d rank as many as 5-8 spots higher here.

But his biggest weakness is power at the plate, where Carrera struggles for gap power, though he makes up for some of that with terrific hand-eye coordination and understands his own swing very well. He knows there’s no power and swings for ground balls and low line drives, and maintains his swing from game-to-game with many streaks of poor mechanics.

The 22-year-old handles the bat well and holds his own versus left-handed pitching. His splits against RHPs in 2009 were absurdly positive -- .362/.467/.464 with 16 of his 18 extra-base hits on the year, suggesting that perhaps he could hit just enough to warrant platoon at-bats at the big-league level.

Carrera ranks this low based on the doubts shared by scouts that he can hit the gaps enough to warrant even semi-regular playing time. While the now-traded Tyson Gillies was the better prospect, the Mariners still have an extra outfielder in the system that can serve in a pinch-runner and defensive replacement role within the next two years.

Carrera is slated for Triple-A Tacoma where I fully expect him continue putting up impressive on-base percentages, but unless the swing is revamped, he’ll remain in the second half of the Top 30 at very best, and isn’t a player I’d trade one of the Top 20 to obtain right now.

His ability to make contact and draw walks will dissipate some in the majors since pitchers will not only have better stuff and command, but they’ll know not to worry about Carrera doing real damage and will instead pound the zone and make him earn his way on base.

Toolbox
(Tool Present-Future)
On-Base Skills: 50-60
Hitting for Power: 35-40
Speed/Baserunning: 65-65
Defensive Range: 55-55
Arm strength: 45-45

Peak Performance Projection
AVG--OBP--HR--SB--SLG--OPS
.280--.340--5--40--.390--.730

Juan Diaz, SS -- Ranked No. 25 in M's system pre-season

Diaz is a unique athlete; he’s wiry strong, though not strong like a power bat. He stands a legitimate 6-foot-3 and moves his feet well defensively, but is merely a 55 runner and lacks quick-twitch actions – but he can play shortstop thanks to the feet, a good, accurate arm and soft hands.

He swing is low line-drive inducing and tends result in too many ground balls considering he’s not likely to get many infield hits, and may have problems hitting for enough average in the upper levels. Diaz possesses average bat speed and can get carried away trying to pull the ball, and then overcompensate in an attempt to hit the ball the other way, as if he’s decided what he’s going to do before he hits the batter’s box.

He’s still just 21 and has time to continue his development – a focus on maintaining contact rates while refining his approach toward being more patient would be wise – forget about hitting for home-run power.

The swing is simple and smooth from both sides of the plate, but when he’s caught in-between comfortable counts he has been known to load up deeper, which tends to waste hittable pitches, helping the pitcher come back and get him out.

Diaz may head back to High Desert where he spent 2009, but not because he hasn’t earned a shot at West Tennessee. With Triunfel, Ackley and Liddi pegged for the Southern League, Diaz’s playing time may be greatly diminished in Double-A, which would stunt his growth.
If he can develop the hit tool some – particularly from the left side, though he’s capable as a right-handed hitter, too -- Diaz profiles as a reserve middle infielder with a little bit of offensive upside.

Toolbox
(Tool Present-Future)
On-Base Skills: 40-45
Hitting for Power: 40-45
Speed/Baserunning: 55-55
Defensive Range: 55-55
Arm strength: 55-55

Peak Performance Projection
AVG--OBP--HR--SB--SLG--OPS
.270--.330--10--8--.410--.740

MLB ETA: 2012
MLB Comps: Cristian Guzman, Alex Cora

Posted in: Ezequiel Carrera,Juan Diaz,Russell Branyan