As a reminder, the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft starts this coming Monday evening (June 7th). This site will be very active and crazy next week as each pick is announced and information on the players is posted. Be sure to check in often next week for all the news and information on the new Tribe farmhands. There will be lots of information to get out with flash analysis as the picks are made as well as tons of post-draft analysis and firsthand scouting information provided from talks with the Indians or scouts around the league.
Onto the Inbox...
Mike M. wrote: Any idea when Frank Herrmann might get his opportunity? How long are we going to see Peralta at 3B? Do you foresee Jordan Brown getting an opportunity the second half of the season?
Me: Herrmann at some point is going to get a chance. The same can be said of the likes of Josh Tomlin, Jordan Brown, Wes Hodges, and others at the Triple-A level who have yet to make their big league debut. Now that June 1st has come and gone we will likely see some movement very soon with bringing up some fresh, young faces to replace some of the old, veteran faces peppered all throughout the big league team at the moment.
In the case of Herrmann, he is in the unfortunate position where the Indians have some bullpen depth and several relievers on the 40-man roster at Triple-A Columbus who could still get a call before him (Jess Todd, Aaron Laffey and Joe Smith). Herrmann, as well as Josh Tomlin, will no doubt at some point get a chance to pitch in the big leagues, but it remains to be seen how aggressive the Indians will be in promoting them. It is probably time to pull the plug on Jamey Wright in the big league bullpen and give Herrmann his shot, one he has earned now with 27.2 consecutive scoreless innings and 19 appearances overall where he is 3-0 with a 0.31 ERA for Columbus. He may have been the benefit of some luck along the way with his numbers to date, but you can’t dismiss the results. Plus he has shown more strikeout ability (22 Ks in 28.2 IP), something he struggled with in years past, but with his fastball up to 95 MPH and his splitter now a weapon for him he is able to finish guys off. If it were me, I’d call him up now and see what he can do, especially in light of Manny Acta’s recent comments of wanting to find middle relief help to bridge the gap between the starters and backend of the bullpen.
In regard to Peralta, I think they will certainly try to trade him, but his value is minimal at the moment. If and when they do trade him it could end up nothing more than a salary dump, something you may see a lot of teams do this July. If they do deal him you could see someone like Luis Valbuena as a stop gap at third base. Andy Marte would also fit into the mix there, though I believe he is on borrowed time and at most would maybe finish the year as the regular there and then likely be given the wazoo from the roster in the offseason. They will need to find a reasonable stop gap option at third base in the offseason until heralded third base prospect Lonnie Chisenhall is maybe ready at the end of 2011, so it will be interesting to see what the Indians do there the rest of this season and in the offseason. Peralta could possibly return, but I find it highly unlikely that they would pick up his $7M option for next year based on his declining performance and their money woes.
As for Jordan Brown, now that Sizemore is out for long term and now that Brown is healthy and has shaken off the rust and is playing well, I think he will get serious consideration to be called up to Cleveland very soon. It would not surprise me to see him called up anytime between now and mid-June as the Indians could use his bat in the lineup, though his arrival may depend on how long Austin Kearns is in a Tribe uniform and playing left field. It’s too bad he can’t play second base, otherwise he would already be in Cleveland.
Dan Q wrote: It’s hard to get excited about anything Alex White does at Akron because of Jeremy Guthrie and Jeremy Sowers. As you'll remember they had very successful stints at Akron when they were rising through the Tribe’s minor league systems. Were there any warning signs on those two that we maybe overlooked? Something I could watch for to indicate Alex White may be different if he does have some success?
Me: If there was some way to look at a high upside guy who is performing well at the Double-A (or even Triple-A) level, but be able to see some kind of warning sign that they will be a failure or not live up to expectations in the big leagues then you my friend would be a rich, rich man. The toughest thing in all the minors may be ultimately projecting how any player translates to the big league level, and GMs, scouts, and player development personnel for all 30 teams have probably missed more than they have hit when it comes to making accurate projections on guys. It's an inexact science, and part of the reason why some find the minor leagues so frustrating while others find it so compelling.
I think with any prospect, be it a high level one like Alex White or a Carlos Santana, you can get excited about the “potential” but the optimism should always be somewhat guarded because you just never know what will transpire until they ultimately reach the big leagues. Some high end prospects fizzle in A-ball, some in Double-A or Triple-A, while others dominate the entire minor league circuit only to struggle when they reach the big leagues. This is why it is so important to have a deep system. If you are hanging your hat on a specific three to five guys to become big league regulars at some point, then you are really playing against the odds. It’s why you need lots of options and depth, as the more options at your disposal the more you can afford to miss and the more likely you are to hit on a few.
Also, failures like Sowers and Guthrie are the cost of doing business. They happen. Unfortunately, for the Indians it seems is has happened way too much for them in the 2000s. Really, be it bad luck or whatever, it is inexcusable for them to miss as much as they have in the 2000s be it from a drafting or player development standpoint. Thankfully it appears the drafting has been much better the past few years and maybe we got lucky with a guy like White who was really a Top 5-7 pick who kind of fell in their lap. If he stays healthy I think he is at worst going to be a middle of the rotation pitcher, but I think he has front end stuff and ability and certainly backend bullpen ability too. There were no warning signs that I am aware of with Guthrie and Sowers as both did well in Double-A and in Sowers case Triple-A too before getting to the bigs (certain peripheral stats can sometimes be indicators, but not always). We just won’t ever really know for sure on White (or any player) until he pitches at the next level, so in the meantime just have fun with it and let yourself get excited. I mean, it’s all Indians’ fans have to look forward to these days anyway. If he fails, then so be it, but if he succeeds you’ll have enjoyed the fun ride following him through the minors.
Aaron wrote: How does a scout judge a players range? In your scouting report of Jason Donald you say he lacks the range to be an everyday shortstop, and the arm to be an everyday third baseman. I have watched him at short and he has been pretty impressive in a SHORT amount of time with his arm and his range in the absence of Asdrubal Cabrera. He makes the routine play, and most of the tough plays.
Me: I think Donald's defense this year has been a pleasant surprise as based on the reports of him last year the consensus seemed to be that there was uncertainty he could be an everyday shortstop. He definitely could not be an everyday third baseman because he lacks the bat to play there everyday, but that bat is more than capable in the middle of the diamond. I will say that the Indians exposure with Donald goes all the way back to high school, that's how long they have been on the guy, and talking to them recently what he has shown this year is what they have always thought. That being he is a glove guy first at shortstop.
As to how defense is scouted at shortstop, it is the toughest (along with catching) position to truly grade out defensively. Basically, the biggest seperator for those who stay at the position and those who don’t is the arm strength and this is often best exemplified on the long throws in the hole between third and short. A shortstop also needs to display good athleticism, hands, feet, and body control. Beyond that, teams look at more specific areas that can differ from organization to organization. In the case of the Indians, which may be the case for other teams, when they scout shortstops they will look at their lower-half agility, flexability, and quickness along with their fluidity going to the ball, their surehandedness, and of course arm accuracy. These are all things we all see to varying degrees when watching on TV or live at games, but the difference is scouts are trained for what to look for and how to "grade" all of these areas in order to put together a complete scouting report on the player. It's actually pretty fascinating how scouts do all of this, and something I know I want to dig a little deeper into for a big article this offseason.
Terry wrote: I didn't follow the whole minor league system as closely in previous years, so maybe this isn't unusual, but it seems like the organization is releasing more guys from the system during the year. Is that true?
Me: Yeah, you are probably right. This year is the first year I can remember in a long time where the Indians have made some tough in-season cuts. They have always released guys in-season in the past, but those were usually your veteran minor leaguers hanging onto jobs who were being used as filler that they let go, or fringe prospects at the end of their lifeline who were not playing well. But this year we have seen some interesting releases where they let go of some pitchers in Akron who were performing well and could have at least helped out at Triple-A Columbus.
A lot of that has to do with the system being kind of backed up and them simply just wanting to give guys they deem to have a higher ceiling a chance to move up and pitch in Double-A and above. The Indians added over 30 pitchers to their minor league system last year between the 2009 Draft and all the trades last summer and fall. Included in that influx of pitching were several high end arms that needed to get significant exposure at the Double-A level this year. I also think some of the in-season releases may have occurred more at the end of spring training when they made a ton of tough cuts this year, but because of some late injuries to the likes of Josh Judy, Alexander Perez and some others they ended up needing some of those arms in the short term. Once the injurred guys got healthy and were activated, the Indians made the additional releases.
Rich S wrote: Alot has been made this year about the amount of strikeouts the hitters are getting, as they are third in the American League (third most team strikeouts). Yet I looked at the stats and found that the previous five years they have always been in the top three in the American League in striking out. But this doesn't seem to affect their offensive production, as they have ranked between 2nd - 8th in the American League in runs scored between 2005 - 2009. My question is why the Indians consistently rank near the top of the American League in strikeouts, regardless of their offensive production?
Me: This is an interesting question, and probably more for my friend Paul Cousineau at http://www.thediatribe.com/ because he is more of a stathead than I am. But, I will say that the Indians have always had an interesting approach at the plate. Their approach in the Wedge years under Derrick Shelton to me was always forced as they wanted guys to be more patient and draw walks, but at the same time they let a lot of good pitches go and it often resulted in a lot of strikeouts. Yeah, they would often rank near the top in walks, but they also would rank near the top in strikeouts. That would seem the norm, but it is not as reputed patient teams like the Red Sox and Yankees also always rank near the top in walks, but they are usually in the bottom half when it comes to strikeouts. It's one thing to be patient, but it's another to truly be a tough out and work pitchers, something that Red Sox and Yankees hitters often are with two strikes as compared to the Indians in recent years.
Now, this year, the high strikeouts are not a surprise at all considering the team is younger and more inexperienced, and also has K-machines like Austin Kearns and Russell Branyan in the lineup. The difference this year as compared to previous seasons is the Indians used to hit a lot more extra base hits whereas this season it has mostly been a pop gun offense with little firepower. When you are relying on consistently putting the ball in play to score runs with a singles-hitting team, it makes it hard when you have such a strikeout laden team to do that.
I'm not sure if that answers the question, but I will forward it onto Mr. Cousineau to see if he can provide some hard analysis and insight into this as well.
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1 comments:
Strikeout rate isn't generally correlated to a team's runs scored. However, the Indians K rate is actually higher this year, currently 23.5%. From '09 to '05 it was 21.7, 21.9, 21.4, 21.4, 19.5%. They are actually drawing walks at a slightly higher rate than in years past, currently 9.7%.
If you think about it, a strikeout isn't that important if your team has power, it's just another out. You don't need to worry about things like advancing a runner from 1st to 2nd, if that guy's likely to be driven in when the guy behind him hits a HR or a double. And the strikeout is preferable to a ground ball double play. If you're a singles hitting team though, it would be important to advance runners, so strikeouts could further hamper your run scoring ability. If you don't advance a runner, how else is Grudz, who still has 0 extra base hits, going to get an RBI?
But mostly I think the Indians strikeout rate this year is just a reflection of their overall incompetence as hitters, while in previous years it was a reflection of a team with some decent power. Their ISO (isolated power,slugging % - BA) from '05 to '09:.181 (3rd in MLB), .177 (7th), .159 (14th), .162 (11th), .153 (11th). Now so far in 2010: .119 (26th). That ISO number is the reason why they're not scoring runs this year, they have no power hitting ability.
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