Miller not a sure thing in Rule 5 Draft

Miller is expected to still be an Indian
come April. (Photo: Ken Carr)

The Rule 5 Draft is this Thursday December 9th.

Since the Cleveland Indians set their 40-man roster back on November 19th there has been a lot of hub bub over which players they rostered and which players they left exposed to the draft. One of those players left exposed which has dominated the talk is right-handed pitcher Adam Miller.

As is typical at this time of the year, the anticipation of the Rule 5 Draft and the possibility the Indians may lose a player of worth leads to a lot of over-evaluation and unrealistic expectations. At the forefront of all of that is Miller.

Miller made considerable progress in 2010 in his rehab from complicated career threatening surgery to his right middle finger and has gotten to the point where he is back on the mound and throwing again. His hard work and determination have once again put him in the mix as a pitching option for the Indians possibly at some point in 2011.

There is no doubt that for the contingent of people out there (including me) who haven't completely written him off that we are all pulling for him to pitch again and make it to the big leagues. Not only would it make for one heck of an inspirational story that has the makings of a Disney movie some day, but if he can pitch again and pitch well it helps out the Cleveland Indians.

However, it is one thing to be "in the mix" and another thing to be a realistic option.

After a promising rehab in 2010, no one is standing on the bow of the USS Abraham Lincoln with the "Mission Accomplished" sign behind them saying Miller is back and will pitch again. Him being "in the mix" just means that he is at a point in his rehab where the organization feels that he is an option and if his rehab continues to go well he could be in the mix to make the team this spring or sometime next season.

But let it be clear: there is still a long way to go in Miller’s rehab before he is anywhere close to stepping foot on a mound in a Major League regular season game.

Miller worked hard through what was an extremely conservative rehab and throwing program this past season which took him from March until October to build him back up just so he could throw bullpens and appear in one game in the Fall Instructional League. It was a monumental moment for him on October 8th as it was the first time he had pitched in a true game setting since winter ball in December 2008, and in any game stateside since May of 2008 at then Triple-A affiliate Buffalo.

Miller threw 12 pitches over the scoreless inning of work in that October outing and averaged 90-91 MPH with his fastball. He did top out at 93 MPH, but he also had some upper 80s readings as well.

But even while Miller has made incredible strides in his comeback, he is still a long shot to ever get back to where he can pitch any meaningful time in a season without the finger becoming an issue for him. He has been handled so carefully that no one knows what will happen once he goes on a normal throwing program and how his finger will respond to throwing everyday in the spring and then pitching in games during the regular season every two to three days.

Don’t forget, back in the spring of 2009 everyone was all excited at him being a part of the bullpen that year but the injury flared up on him again once he was pitching without restrictions. The same thing can happen again this spring.

As to whether a team will take Miller in the Rule 5 Draft, that is an unknown right now. There is obviously interest in that he is a "name" and a former #1 prospect that teams once salivated over. But when teams get beyond the name and actually start checking in on him they will find they have nothing to make any kind of informed decision on him.

The Indians know absolutely every detail of Miller's current situation and where he truly is in his comeback as they have all the medical information and have seen him throw many times in the past year. They have seen every long toss he has made, every bullpen he has thrown, every sim-game he has pitched, and so on.

But there is just not a lot for other organizations to go on as they have no idea how healthy Miller is and won't until after he is drafted. Teams are not permitted to review medical information on a prospective Rule 5 pick. Also, since clubs have not seen him pitch in the minors since May of 2008, they have no idea if he is anywhere close to the pitcher he once was. With all the down time, surgeries, and rehab, he is likely not the same pitcher he used to be.

When teams scout players from other teams throughout the year they are scouting everyone as a potential acquisition down the road be it in a trade, free agency, or even the Rule 5 Draft. Once the list of Rule 5 Draft eligibles is known, players left unprotected that interest the scouts get put into the hopper for discussion with the front office for possible selection in the draft. Without any recent scouting data and a lack of any medical information, teams have no idea what they would be getting in a player like Miller.

Now of course a team can just spend the $50,000 it costs to make a Rule 5 selection and try to find those things out for themselves over the course of the next few months and in spring training; however, there are additional costs they would incur. In addition to maybe losing a roster spot for another more useable player, they also will be on the hook for some pretty expensive medical bills. Miller has regular checkups on the finger and the rehab is pricey. There are other things like workers comp, the potential for additional surgery, a Major League minimum salary of $400,000 and so on.

So even if a team were to keep Miller all year on the 60-day DL to sort of circumvent the requirement that a team have a player on the active 25-man roster for at least 90 days, that $50K investment turns into a $600K or more. Not exactly a sound investment in a broken down 26-year old pitcher.

If the idea is to draft him just to take a look at him between now and the end of spring training before sending him back to the Indians, that may be a poor decision as well. While he could be ready to pitch in the big leagues at the end of spring training, the more likely scenario is he will remain in extended spring training for some additional rehab or he will go to Triple-A Columbus to pitch on a very restricted throwing program early in the season. If things go well, then he becomes a big league option later in the year.

And don't forget that at this time last year the Indians removed Miller from the 40-man roster and he cleared waivers. Since clubs have no real new information since then why would they now draft him and be hampered by the roster restrictions of the Rule 5 Draft when they could have very easily just claimed him off waivers and had full control of him back then?

If Miller’s pitching future and the medical costs scared teams away then, then it should be no different now as the medical concerns have not changed and he still has a cloudy pitching future. The only thing that has changed from last year to this year is he has moved from point A to point B or C in his rehab. He still has many more check points to pass through before he gets a big league opportunity.

The biggest red flag in all of this is the fact the Indians declined to roster Miller. Considering they know everything about his situation and value him, if they felt he had a realistic shot to make it back and that the medical reports were good there is no way they would have left him off and exposed him to the draft. The fact they did not roster him speaks volumes for where they truly think he is at right now.

Sure, the Indians will give a positive spin when asked about Miller on the record, but actions speak louder than words. Clubs pick up on this, and that is why in talking with some scouts and personnel from various organizations the general perception is Miller may be best suited to remain with people familiar with his situation. If he were to go to another organization he could be pushed at a pace that would severely damage what small chance he may have of a career in the big leagues, so the best and maybe only chance for him to make it to the big leagues would be to remain with the Indians.

This is by no means to knock Miller just because he is Rule 5 eligible and may be lost. It is just to temper expectations that may have gotten out of control with recent news of him pitching again.

It happens. We are all excited at the prospects that he "could" return, but as things stand today the odds are still against him ever make it back and pitching in the big leagues.

No one knows what to expect from Miller going forward. The finger can go at any moment, and he may never even throw 95 MPH again. The fan in all of us wants to believe he'll come back, but the reality is that it's still a great uncertainty.

Yes, it only takes one team, but the key is the lack of scouting and medical information on Miller, and based on all of that it appears unlikely that he is picked up in the Rule 5 Draft or if he is picked he has little chance of sticking with his new club.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI.  His latest book the 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is also available for purchase on his site for a special year end closeout sale of $10.00 (including shipping and handling stateside).

Posted in: Adam Miller