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Rodriguez just got the opportunity of a lifetimewith the Pirates (Photo: Ken Carr) |
Once again it shows how unpredictable it can be in that there are never any certainties going into the draft. A lot of this has to do with the inexact science of scouting where what one team sees is not necessarily what every other team sees, which leads to some puzzling, surprising picks.
In any case, here are some thoughts on the players the Indians lost in the draft yesterday, the players who survived, and more:
* The two players the Indians lost in the Rule 5 Draft were not top prospects. Middle infielder Josh Rodriguez was once a Top 10-15 guy back in 2007-2008 who until this past season had faded in recent years because of age, health and lack of performance. Even with his nice comeback year this past season, he will be 26 years old next season and was a fringe top 25-35 guy in the Indians system right now. Right-handed pitcher Jose Flores was nowhere close to consideration as a high level prospect and probably would not have even made the Indians Top 50 listing.
* Indians fans can pretty much kiss Rodriguez goodbye as he almost certainly will not be back. He just went to a situation that fits him perfectly where he is going to get every chance to stick, an opportunity that may not have been present with any other team. Pirates GM Neil Huntington knows him well and has always loved him. Huntington was a part of the Indians front office during Rodriguez’s first two years in the system in 2006 and 2007 and personally saw what were Rodriguez’s two best seasons before his nice comeback season in 2010. Don’t be surprised to see some kind of trade this spring where the Pirates acquire the full rights to Rodriguez for a minor league player in exchange.
* As for Flores, boy, what an out of nowhere pick that was by the Mariners. It is not like he is a big time power pitcher or a guy with some nasty secondary stuff. In the Parallel League this fall his fastball sat at 90-92 MPH and topped out at 94 MPH, and neither of his secondary offerings are considered anything more than average pitches now and in the future. He has nice size (he's thicker and weights more than the 6'3" 185 pounds he is listed at) and he is a strike thrower, but are you telling me the Mariners could not find such a player in the Rule 5 Draft who pitched in the upper levels of the minors last year? It’s just an odd pick as he isn't even one of the Indians' top relief prospects and I even had him as a bubble guy at High-A Kinston going into 2011 because of so much pitching depth in the Indians’ lower levels of their system.
* So where did the Mariners interest in Flores come from? Well, like every team does, they scouted him and all the Indians players all season, but they got a long look at him and the rest of the Low-A Lake County team during the Midwest League Championship Series in September. The Mariners front office was present for most of the championship series since Lake County’s opponent the Clinton Lumberkings are the Mariners Low-A affiliate. Apparently the front office saw something in him they liked even though he was wild in his playoff appearances against Clinton.
* Flores is a very inexperienced pitcher having pitched in just 79 games and throwing only 156.0 innings in five minor league seasons. He has never pitched above Low-A and has never pitched a full season (he joined Lake County last year midseason). Unless a trade is worked out, Flores will almost certainly be back with the Indians.
* In somewhat of a surprise the Indians did not lose any players in the Triple-A and Double-A phase of the draft. With the ridiculous amount of pitching depth in the system it was felt going in that they could lose a player or two in the minor league phase because it would be hard to include all the pitchers they want on their minor league reserve lists. Kudos to the Indians on what was a great job of setting these lists.
* Of no surprise the Indians did not select anyone in the draft. They never expected to take anyone, though up until Wednesday night they were still considering changing those plans. In the end they saw nothing available that was any better than what was already on their roster. There was some hope among fans that they would take third base prospect Marquez Smith, but they were not interested in him.
* As for who was not picked, the two names which stand out are first baseman/outfielder Matt McBride and right-handed pitcher Adam Miller. McBride had a few teams interested in him because of his power potential, but he is just not Rule 5 material. A very large percentage of the picks are always bullpen arms, and any position players taken are typically of the utility or fourth outfielder variety, something McBride is not.
* As for Miller, this was actually great news for him. There was real interest in him by other teams, but the lack of any medical information and recent scouting data really discouraged teams from selecting him, even for just $50,000 to take a look. With Miller sticking with the Indians it was the best thing that could have happened to him as he and the Indians can patiently work together through what will be a big season for him in 2011. The familiarity with Miller's medical condition and the freedom to take it slow with him works to his advantage, something that would not have been present with another organization as they may have rushed him or he may have over-exerted himself trying to make his new team. This upcoming season could be it for Miller as if he has another setback he may just decide to pull the plug on his career rather than more surgery and lots of rehab, so you can see why it is important for him to remain with the Indians.
* As it turns out the Indians were correct in their decision to not roster Miller; however, did they make a mistake not rostering Rodriguez? A lot of fans are not happy to see Luis Valbuena still on the roster, and many probably would rather have Rodriguez here in his place. That having been said, consider the following: Valbuena is a year younger than Rodriguez and is just ten days short of two full years of Major League service time. When you consider that both are about equal defensively, offensively, and with their versatility, that experience gives Valbuena an edge in value. Also, for as bad of a season Valbuena had in 2010 and as much of a banner comeback season Rodriguez had in 2010, let's not forget the poor years for Rodriguez in 2008 and 2009 while Valbuena had very solid 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Also, one thing to note is while Valbuena was abysmal in Cleveland during the 2010 season, he hit .313/.427/.604 in 25 games at Columbus this past season while Rodriguez hit .293/.372/.486 in 86 games at Columbus. It looks to me like Rodriguez in a lot of ways is a spitting image of Valbuena, just a year older. He’ll get a chance to prove that assumption right or wrong next season when he gets his big league shot with the Pirates.
* It should be noted that the Indians front office had a split camp on who to assign to their last 40-man spot a few weeks ago when they finalized their roster. Some in the organization favored rostering third baseman Jared Goedert, while others strongly favored rostering Rodriguez. I wonder if knowing what they know now if those that favored rostering Goedert would still push for such a move, especially with their lack of shortstop depth in the upper minors. When it comes to making 40-man roster decisions the GM always has final say, but Player Development’s recommendations strongly influence who is rostered. If Goedert bombs and Rodriguez becomes a serviceable major leaguer, don’t blame new GM Chris Antonetti. The fault would mostly lie with Farm Director Ross Atkins and his staff.
* With the departure of Rodriguez and Carlos Rivero last month on waivers to the Phillies, the Indians suddenly find themselves in need of a few middle infielders in the upper levels of the system. At the moment they have no starting shortstop at Columbus and no utility candidate that can play shortstop there, though it is possible if Luis Valbuena does not win the utility gig this spring with the big league team that he will get the lion’s share of playing time at shortstop for Columbus. In any case, the Indians will probably be signing a veteran or two that can play shortstop to minor league deals. This means the likes of Adam Everett and Nick Punto are going to get more consideration, though they would first get consideration for the big league job in Cleveland.
Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. His latest book the 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is also available for purchase on his site for a special year end closeout sale of $10.00 (including shipping and handling stateside).
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6 comments:
You are correct that the best situation for Miller was not to be drafted, he can now continue his rehab and hopefully get some meaningful innings under his belt in the first half of 11 and make his long awaited debut at some point mid-season.
To suggest that it was good that Miller was not rostered and that someone else was is a results based argument. If Josh Hamilton had not been selected by the Cubs a few years back, I still would've been upset at the Rays for leaving a high ceiling guy unprotected, regardless of outcome.
Many times baseball, as we Indians fans know (see Hafner, Westbrook, Sizemore), comes down to luck not brains. Let's all hope that what looks like a smart decision today proves to be dumb luck by mid-season!
True, but bottom line with the information the Indians had they were confident he would not be selected, and even in the oft chance he was they knew he would certainly come back. Should add some perspective on what his true chances of pitching in the big leagues are. So in the end, yes, they were right on not rostering (in fact pretty much not even considering him).
How was Flores even eligible for the rule 5? It looks like he's only been with the organization for 4 years, and was signed at 18. I think Seattle just felt bad about how Luis Valbuena played last year, figured they'd give the Indians $25,000 to make it up to them.
Flores was signed as a Latin American free agent in July 2005, so that's why he was eligible (even though he did not pitch until 2007). Flores was actually Rule 5 eligible LAST YEAR too.
Should add some perspective on what his true chances of pitching in the big leagues are.
Very true statement Tony, very true.
Seth- I don't think Seattle owes us anything with what we have done to them over the years. lol
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