2011 Indians 40-man review: Who do they remove?

Trevor Crowe and Luis Valbuena may not

survive on the 40-man roster. (Photo: AP)

With the World Series underway the official start of the 2011-2012 offseason is quickly drawing near. For those teams whose season already ended weeks ago they are making final preparations for the November 18^th roster date which is four weeks away.

This is a key date in the offseason as teams set their 40-man rosters for the upcoming season by making decisions on which players to keep, which players to remove, and which young players to add in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft in December. The Indians already made two decisions on Tuesday when they outrighted outfielder Jerad Head and right-handed pitcher Mitch Talbot off the 40-man roster.

Most of the additions to the 40-man roster are who organizations view as their best young talent in the minors that is up for roster protection from the Rule 5 Draft.  The rest of the additions come from signings through free agency with a few waiver claims or trades potentially sprinkled in.  Teams conduct several meetings from the final month of the season until the roster deadline date as they work to whittle down the roster and finalize it before the deadline.  Many decisions on who to remove and who to add from the roster are obvious, but other decisions are not so cut and dry.

Whether obvious or not, teams will wait until right around the deadline date to officially make roster additions from the minors in order to let things play out.  Teams rarely make roster decisions on who to add well in advance of the deadline since there is no rush to do so and it could be a decision that results in disaster. What if the player being rostered is playing winter ball then goes out the next day and gets seriously hurt? This is a situation the team wants to avoid, and is why most of these decisions typically always go down to the last minute.

Occasionally, a team will open up a roster spot by trading a player already on the 40-man roster in exchange for a non-roster player that is not required to be protected.  Even more rare are trades at this time of the year involving Rule 5 eligible players that teams may not have room on their roster to protect.  This is mostly because other teams are in the same boat, and also because teams have little interest to acquire a player that if they are even interested in they can just go out and try to pick them up in the Rule 5 Draft for little cost.

When it comes to filling out the 40-man roster at this time of the year, it all comes down to a combination of need and talent.  For a young team like the Indians that expects to contend next season and already has so many young players on the roster there is not as much focus on adding more youth to the roster this offseason as in previous years.

For the Indians most of the needed additions to the roster from their farm system this offseason happened over the course of this past season when they rostered such players as third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, second baseman Jason Kipnis, right-handed reliever Zach Putnam and others. While there are still maybe two or three players from the farm system they will add to the roster, the additions the Indians make this offseason will likely mostly be Major League players via free agency or trade.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at what decisions the Indians may make in creating room on the 40-man roster prior to the November 18th roster deadline.  In the next few weeks I will post a follow up to this piece and take an in depth look at what players from their farm system the Indians will consider adding to the 40-man roster.

Roster Breakdown

Currently the Indians have 42 players on the 40-man roster, four of which are on the 60-day disabled list. There is no disabled list in the offseason, so by the November 18^th roster deadline the Indians will need to put all players on the 60-day disabled list back onto the active 40-man roster. These four players are right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, right-handed pitcher Josh Tomlin, outfielder Michael Brantley, and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.

Shortly after the World Series players eligible for free agency will officially be removed from the roster. The Indians have three players eligible for free agency: outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, designated hitter Jim Thome, and right-handed pitcher Chad Durbin. None of these players are expected to be resigned in advance of the start of free agency, so even with the activation of the 60-day disabled list players back on to the 40-man roster the removal of the three pending free agents technically puts the Indians roster at 39 players right now.

Obviously one open spot on the 40-man roster is not enough for the Indians to make needed and expected acquisitions via free agency and trade or to add some of their young players from the minors, so they still need to remove a few players from the roster.

Who Stays, Who Goes

Looking at the 39 players on the Indians’ roster that are not free agents, the following players appear to have a questionable status on the roster: Fausto Carmona (RHP), Kelvin De La Cruz (LHP), Corey Kluber (RHP), Luis Valbuena (INF), Trevor Crowe (OF), Shelley Duncan (1B/OF), Thomas Neal (OF), and Nick Weglarz (OF).

That's a lot of guys ranging from low to high chances at being removed from the roster.  Here is a breakdown of the chances each player is removed:

Fausto Carmona (Right-handed pitcher)

2011: 7-15, 5.25 ERA, 32 GS, 188.2 IP, 205 H, 22 HR, 60 BB, 109 K

The Indians have a pretty big decision to make on whether or not to pick up Carmona’s $7 million option for next season. This decision is expected to be made rather quickly this offseason as what they do with Carmona will directly affect what they do in the free agent and trade market and will determine how much money they have to spend. He has been an enigma as his inconsistency is maddening, but considering that he is healthy, has averaged 200 innings pitched the last two seasons, and has tons of talent that could still be reached it appears that the Indians will pick up the option. Besides, $7 million would not go very far in free agency for a starting pitcher as few if any pitchers better than Carmona can be signed for anything close to that.

Decision: The Indians pick up the club option and keep Carmona for another year to see if he puts it all together next year. They need starting pitching and in the starting pitching market $7 million for one season with two club option years is very cheap and one of the most team friendly contracts you will find.

Trevor Crowe (Outfielder)

2011: .214 AVG (6-for-28), 6 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 SB, 4 BB, 9 K, .563 OPS

Crowe went into the 2011 season as the favorite to make the opening day roster as the fourth outfielder, but a right shoulder injury in spring training forced him to be shutdown. He ended up having surgery and did not return until mid-September and played in just 15 games before an injury to his left shoulder ended his season prematurely. He is a former 1^st round pick so there is a lot invested in him and he also has an option remaining so there is some roster flexibility there next season, but the injuries and performance in the big leagues to date are a concern.

Decision: Due to his injury issues and performance the Indians can probably slip Crowe through waivers without risk of losing him, and that is what I think they will do either now or later this offseason when they need the roster spot. Provided he clears waivers, as a first time outright from the 40-man roster the Indians would still control him for next season.

Kelvin De La Cruz (Left-handed pitcher)

2011 at Double-A Akron: 5-6, 4.19 ERA, 23 G (16 GS), 86.0 IP, 70 H, 3 HR, 57 BB, 95 K

Among players in the Indians’ farm system De La Cruz had one of the more disappointing seasons this year, especially for a player on the 40-man roster. He has now used up two of his three option years the past two seasons at Double-A Akron and his performance has been inconsistent and he has not shown any improvement. The strikeout rate is nice (9.9 K/9 in 2011), but he is still walking way too many batters (6.0 BB/9 in 2011). He had a 6.1 BB/9 rate in 2010 at Akron so a return trip this past season did not help, and now it appears the Indians have resorted to putting him in the bullpen to hopefully fix the command issues. He was once a highly regarded prospect, but injuries and command problems the past few seasons have dimmed his star considerably.

Decision: De La Cruz looks like one of the more sure things to be removed from the roster this offseason considering where he is as a prospect and his plummeting value to the organization. It is possible another team may take a shot and claim him off waivers because he is left-handed and can strike batters out, but the chances appear to be slim and the Indians could risk that. As a first time outright, if he clears waivers he would be under the Indians’ control for 2012.

Shelley Duncan (Outfield/First base)

2011: .260 AVG, 29 R, 17 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB, 19 BB, 56 K, .808 OPS

Duncan played in just 76 games and had 247 plate appearances, yet was a productive player in that limited playing time. For a team hurting for right-handed bats at the corner positions, letting him go without any other alternatives on hand would not make sense. Next year both Duncan and Matt LaPorta will probably go into spring training in a battle to make the team as the right-handed bat off the bench for left field and first base. At the moment the Indians probably plan to have LaPorta open the season at Triple-A Columbus to get him on track, which means before any other moves are made this offseason that Duncan has a firm hold on that bench role to start the season.

Decision: Duncan’s performance this past season along with his versatility to play left field and first base, his excellent clubhouse presence, and his acceptance as a role player off the bench make it highly unlikely he will be removed from the roster this offseason.   Even still, it is possible he could be removed later on this offseason if the Indians remove others and find themselves in a roster crunch, especially if the Indians make a sizable right-handed hitting acquisition at first base or left field.

Corey Kluber (Right-handed pitcher)

2011 at Triple-A Columbus: 7-11, 5.56 ERA, 27 GS, 150.2 IP, 153 H, 19 HR, 70 BB, 143 K

Kluber did not have a very good season at Triple-A Columbus this year, which was the result of a lack of consistency and some injuries. He made his Major League debut in September and pitched in three games out of the bullpen in Cleveland allowing four runs in 4.1 innings.  The Indians are still high on him as they think he has good stuff and an ability to get strikeouts, and they did trade right-handed pitcher Jake Westbrook for him a year ago so there is some investment in him that they may still want to see through.

Decision:  With Mitch Talbot being outrighted earlier in the week they already removed one starting pitching open for 2012, so it decreases the likelihood Kluber is also outrighted, especially one year after being rostered. I’d say he remains on the roster, but there is still a chance he could be removed. If you are scoring at home I’d put it at 75-25.

Thomas Neal (Outfielder)

2011 at Triple-A: .289 AVG (74-for-256), 40 R, 14 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 8 SB, 14 BB, 57 K, .734 OPS

The Indians acquired Neal back at the end of July and it was a disappointing finish to the season for him as several injuries limited him to just ten games with Triple-A Columbus the rest of the season. Injuries were an issue all season as he only played 70 total games between Triple-A Fresno and Columbus. The Indians acquired him from the Giants for infielder Orlando Cabrera and it looks like he has some value to the organization, but it would have been nice to see what he could do the final six weeks of the season to get a better read on him going forward. The one thing going for him is he is a right-handed hitting outfielder, something the Indians lack from Double-A all the way to the big leagues.

Decision: Neal is definitely a player who is on the short list as a possible roster removal this offseason, though there should be a few players ahead of him on that list. It really depends on how many players the Indians plan to add via free agency, what trades (if any) they make, and how many players from their farm system they need to add. I think he stays on the roster, mostly because of that right-handed bat and because the Indians have not yet seen what he can do.

Luis Valbuena (Infielder)

2011 at Triple-A: .302 AVG, 64 R, 22 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 6 SB, 46 BB, 96 K, .848 OPS

Valbuena had a very good season at Triple-A Columbus, but he only managed to play in 17 games at the big league level and hit .209 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and a .506 OPS. Over the last two seasons he has shown he is too good for Triple-A but not good enough for the big leagues, the very definition of the classic 4A player. With Jason Kipnis and Cord Phelps at second base, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jack Hannahan at third base, Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop, and the versatile Jason Donald available at any of the three positions, there just appears to be no room for Valbuena on the big league roster unless a severe rash of injuries occur.

Decision: Valbuena is only 25-years old, but it is time to pull the plug on him after two poor years at the big league level. While he has proven to be productive at Triple-A and may still have a future in the big leagues, the Indians just have several other options at any position he plays that warrants keeping him and taking up a valuable roster spot. I would be very surprised if Valbuena is on the 40-man roster post November 18^th as to me he is one of the most for sure removals this offseason.

Nick Weglarz (Outfielder)

2011 at Double-A: .179 AVG (24-for-134), 25 R, 8 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 36 BB, 43 K, .666 OPS

It was a very disappointing year for Weglarz as once again injuries ruined his season. He tore the meniscus in his knee in spring training and it resulted in him missing the first two months of the season, and then after returning in June his season came to an end in late July when he suffered an injury to his left elbow. Injuries have been an issue for him his entire seven year career as he played in a total of just 128 games the last two seasons and four of his last six seasons have ended prematurely because of injury.  There is no denying his power and patient approach as it is something that the Indians and scouts for other teams have loved all along with him. The problem is he is he will turn 24-years old in December and there are huge questions about his health, not to mention he may at best be a designated hitter only if he makes it to the big leagues.

Decision: The Indians know Weglarz is a better player than the player he was statistically this past season, but they may use those poor numbers to their advantage by removing him from the roster and trying to sneak him through waivers. If he is removed he will remain property of the Indians in 2012. My guess right now is he is will be removed from the roster, though that is not as firm as some of the others.

Final Tally

When determining who stays and goes it should be noted that not all of the players will be removed at the same time. Some will be removed right away in the next week or so while others may be removed as needed later in the offseason. As we have seen in the past the Indians have made roster additions in February the past two years picking up Russell Branyan and Orlando Cabrera and needed to remove a player from the roster at that time.

There are certain to be a couple of guys kept on the roster that will leave people scratching their heads.  As we have seen in the past a few “sacrificial lambs” will be kept on the 40-man roster in the event roster room needs to be made to add a free agent or trade acquisition.  Teams keep a few of these players on the roster instead of loading up with straight prospects so as to not have to designate for assignment a prospect they might otherwise not want to.

So who do the Indians remove? I’ll go ahead and predict that Valbuena and De La Cruz are removed, and maybe not right away but later this offseason Crowe and Weglarz are removed. Those moves should allow five open slots on the 40-man roster to add players from the farm system, free agency, and trade.

So what internal options will the Indians look to fill those open spots?  We'll take a look at all the options in the upcoming followup piece in about two weeks.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

Posted in: Cleveland Indians,Corey Kluber,Fausto Carmona,Kelvin De La Cruz,Luis Valbuena,Nick Weglarz,rosters,Shelley Duncan,Thomas Neal,Trevor Crowe