 |
The Indians' decision on Sizemore will be made by the end of the month. (Photo: AP) |
Sizemore decision looms
The Indians announced on Tuesday that outfielder Grady Sizemore underwent a right knee arthroscopy in Vail, Colorado. The procedure was performed by Dr. Richard Steadman and the recovery from the procedure is expected to be six to eight weeks.
The surgery is good news – for now – as there were concerns that Sizemore might need microfracture surgery on his ailing right knee which would have probably affected the start of his 2012 season. He had microfracture surgery on his left knee in June of last year and it took until late April for him to be ready this year. He is now expected to be ready for the start of spring training and it is believed that the minor procedure will allow the bone bruise in his right knee to fully heal.
Now that the Indians have a better understanding of where Sizemore is with his health, they now have all possible medical data on him to make as informed a decision as they can possibly make on whether or not they will pick up his $9 million club option this offseason.
The Indians need to decide whether to just pick up the option and pay Sizemore $9 million next year, decline the option and pay a $500,000 buyout and make him a free agent, or decline the option but work out a deal to bring him back at a reduced cost. They have until three days after the conclusion of the 2011 World Series to make the decision.
At one time Sizemore was an iron man as he averaged 160 games played over four seasons from 2005-2008 and it looked like a foregone conclusion that his 2012 club option would be picked up. But injuries over the past three seasons that have limited him to an average of 70 games per season make it highly unlikely that the option will be picked up as-is.
Sizemore’s performance has also cratered the past three years, which of course is a direct result of all the injuries. In 2009 he hit .248 with 18 homers, 64 RBI, and .788 OPS in 106 games. He followed that up in 2010 to hit .211 with no homers, 13 RBI, and .560 OPS in 33 games and then this past season he hit .224 with 10 homers, 32 RBI, and .707 OPS. He has also only managed to steal 17 total bases over the last three seasons (210 games) after stealing 22 or more bases a season for four straight years from 2005-2008.
Sizemore showed back in April and May earlier this season that when he is healthy he can still be close to the player of old. But after three injury plagued seasons and numbers like he has put up it would be extremely foolish of the Indians to pick up his option as-is, especially for such a financially challenged organization.
Sizemore and the Indians can get all the good news they want this offseason in regard to his health, but the bottom line is he is a player whose physical health is deteriorating rapidly. There is no denying the evidence as Indians fans have witnessed it first hand the past three seasons with his injuries and the 276 games he has missed due to injury. Over the past three seasons he has also combined to hit just .234 with a .728 OPS.
The Indians plan to contend next season and center field is a big concern for them. The alternatives in free agency or the trade market may not be better, and I truly believe that both the Indians and Sizemore have a mutual interest in keeping him with the Indians next season. That is why I believe they will ultimately decide to decline the option but that a prearranged deal will be worked out between the Indians and Sizemore where he is brought back for a reduced amount next season but with a year or two added to his current deal at a low base amount with lots of incentives.
If Sizemore can be brought back for something a little below or above $3 million, I think a lot of people would be much more welcome to the idea. The Indians have a finite budget and they really cannot pay him $9 million next year and also go out and add a few pieces, but getting him under contract for a much cheaper amount would leave more money in the kitty to fill needs elsewhere.
One thing to consider is this: If Sizemore had played for the Oakland Athletics the past eight seasons and the Indians signed him as a free agent this offseason for one year $9 million, Indians fans would be outraged at the poor allotment of dollars. Just because he has been an Indian the past eight years does not mean all objectivity should go out the window.
It is a big decision as obviously there are some emotional ties between the fans and Sizemore as well as a ton of respect between the organization and Sizemore. But it should still be a business decision and not an emotional one.
Alternatives to Sizemore
The decision the Indians make on Sizemore will likely be the first decision the Indians make this offseason, and what they ultimately decide will affect the rest of what they do this offseason. The Indians need to look at the entire picture which means looking at possible alternatives to having him on the roster.
Even if the Indians do resign Sizemore, can he be relied upon to be an everyday center fielder next season? After several operations to both knees is he even still an above average defender as a center fielder? The Indians have expressed concern of inserting Michael Brantley as the every day center fielder next season, but is Sizemore at this point that much better?
With the Indians so concerned about center field, once the Sizemore decision is made the Indians would likely shift their focus to acquiring a center fielder via free agency or trade. In fact, whether they pick up Sizemore’s option or not they may still look to acquire a center fielder. Sizemore could be used next season in a more reduced role as a third or fourth outfielder to manage his health, and with Brantley coming off wrist surgery his health may also need to be managed so there would still probably be an opportunity to add an every day center fielder.
Ezequiel Carrera and Trevor Crowe are nice depth options and could factor into a fourth outfielder role again next year, but neither is a solution as an everyday outfielder. But one option that may come to light again is Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton.
The Indians expressed strong interest in Upton this past July as they tried to work out a deal to acquire him before the July 31st trade deadline, and that interest spilled into August but a deal was never able to be reached. The Rays still appear set to trade him this offseason, and you can bet the Indians will be one of his biggest suitors. He is in his final year of salary arbitration and will be a free agent after the 2012 season.
There is no doubt that Upton would be a considerable upgrade in center field for the Indians. His athleticism and speed would be a welcomed addition to the team both in the lineup and the outfield. He would be better than any defensive outfield option on the Indians roster – including Sizemore – and would be a right-handed bat to boot which is something this lineup desperately needs.
The Indians have a glaring hole in center field right now, but even if they patch it up by picking up Sizemore’s option or trading for a player like Upton it is still going to be a glaring hole after next season. This is because Sizemore and Upton would both be up for free agency after next season and also because the Indians lack any everyday center field prospects in the system that will be ready by 2013.
Even still, the Indians might as well be proactive and try to fix that problem now if possible or search for solutions. That time is coming regardless, so there is no good in putting it off especially considering the health concerns of Sizemore. The Indians have opened a window of contention and it remains to be seen how long it will remain opened, so what they do to fill the hole in center field will go a long way in determining their success the next few seasons.
Cutting down on Strikeouts
Another thing to consider with bringing back Sizemore is the ridiculous amount of strikeouts the Indians pile up as a team. Sizemore played just 71 games this season but he still managed to strike out 85 times 268 at bats, by far his worst strikeout rate in his eight-year career.
Sizemore has always been prone to a high amount of strikeouts, but that was always accepted because of what he could do when he makes contact. For a long time he was an extra base hit machine and had the ability to take a walk and steal a base. With his production going down the last three years the strikeouts are much more magnified.
If the Indians bring back Sizemore then they will essentially bring back the same offense in 2012. The same one which is prone to huge hot and cold spells, is injury prone, and is a strikeout machine. They averaged eight strikeouts a game this past season, and their 1269 strikeouts this year were the most in franchise history, smashing the record of 1213 strikeouts back in 2008.
With Sizemore back in 2012 it really only leaves first base as a position to improve in the offseason. The Indians will not be players in the sweepstakes for first basemen Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, but they should be in on any other first basemen available via free agency or trade. But if they acquire an every day first baseman it would means Carlos Santana moves to a more permanent role behind the plate as catcher, something I know a lot of fans do not like.
The offense needs some changes not just with finding a right-handed bat or two, but also more consistency at the plate with cutting down on the strikeouts. One way to help combat that problem area may be to cut the cord with Sizemore.
Arbitration decisions
Another area where the decision on Sizemore may affect the Indians this offseason is at the arbitration table. Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, left-handed reliever Rafael Perez, right-handed closer Chris Perez are up for arbitration, third baseman Jack Hannahan, right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, and right-handed reliever Joe Smith are up for arbitration.
With all of these players up for arbitration for the first, second or third time, they will all receive considerable increases to the salary they received in 2011. Left-handed pitcher Tony Sipp should be up for Super 2 arbitration this offseason, so he will also be in for a raise too. These raises will take up a large chunk of the Indians offseason budget to increase the 2012 payroll to an unknown amount. The Indians have not said what that 2012 budget will be, but the best guess is that next year’s payroll will be somewhere around $62-67 million.
With a finite budget and so many players up for salary arbitration it will limit the money available for the Indians to spend on free agents or trade acquisitions. That $9 million club option on Sizemore could end up taking up about 15-20% of their 2012 payroll, and is another reason why it has a huge affect on what they do this offseason.
Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).
Everything on this site is free, but for those interested in making any monetary contributions to help support the stability and growth of this site please click on the "Donate" button below.
5 comments:
With Hagadone seemingly ready and Rafeal Perez and possibly Tony Sipp both arbitration eligible, would that make one of Perez or Sipp eligible for a trade?
That's an interesting question Mike. I think the Indians will put just about everything on the table this offseason, but the trickiest part of any offseason is what you do with the bullpen. Hagadone is absolutely freakish, but one thing to remember is this: Rafael Perez may be the best, and clearly the most consistent reliever the Indians have had since 2007. While he's had a few blips on the radar since, he's clearly the anchor of the pen. With that said, he's also extremely valuable on the market as a left-handed out machine. So the question becomes whether or not the Indians want to disrupt their pen to save money?
I think the easy answer is yes. Sipp also fits in that category to a lesser extent.
I do believe that one, or both are on the market with Hagadone coming up.
Another interesting watch will be Kelvin De La Cruz. While they won't rush him through Columbus, as a reliever, he could be closer to the Indians than people think.
Me personally, unless a very good deal came their way, I don't trade Perez or Sipp. If this team wants to content next year they need to try and keep the strength of the team (the bullpen) intact. I think if I trade anyone it would actually be Chris Perez as I think he could bring the best return and also we have a pitcher in Vinnie Pestano who is just as good and can close. Also Chris Perez is getting expensive so that is something to consider there as well.
"will spend when the time is right".
Guess what time it is now...
Agreed Brent. I think there should be a sizable increase in payroll, though don't expect it to eclipse $70M. My guess is $65 million (+/- $5M). Not what everyone wants, but the attendance is terrible and does not support a higher payroll.
Post a Comment