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Now that the World Series is over the decision on Fausto Carmona and Grady Sizemore's option will be made by Monday. (Photo: AP). |
Great series, but it is still a broken system
Wow, what a World Series. It wasn’t the best played series with very good defense and pitching, but the offensive display was exciting and Game 6 was one for the ages and arguably the greatest baseball game of all time. The Cardinals won Game 7 on Friday night to become the new world champs and officially bring the 2011 season to a close.
People will point to the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Texas Rangers matchup in the World Series and some of the memorable games throughout the playoffs and the final day of the season and say it is evidence that there is nothing wrong with baseball. That no matter how much money a team spends there is no guarantee a team makes it to the playoffs or the World Series.
Yes, it is true that both the Cardinals and Rangers were not even ranked among the top ten payrolls in Major League Baseball this year. In fact, only five of the twelve playoff teams this year ranked in the top half of the league in payroll while seven of the twelve playoff teams ranked in the bottom half in payroll. And yes, it is true that the annual big spenders the New York Yankees were ousted in the first round of the playoffs and the Boston Red Sox choked at an all-time epic level and missed the playoffs completely.
But money still ultimately controls who gets to sustain winning and has a better chance to make the postseason year in and year out. For as great a story as the Tampa Bay Rays were this year we all saw the problem last offseason when they had to let several free agents go. They will once again be forced to let more go this offseason and as players like left-handed pitcher David Price, outfielder B.J. Upton, third baseman Evan Longoria and others reach free agency they will likely lose them to other teams as well.
This is the problem with baseball and why there is such a disparity between the haves and have nots. It is not always about the payroll as teams can usually win whether they have a $40 million payroll like the Rays or a $200 million payroll like the Yankees. Sometimes low payroll teams have a good core of young, cheap players who have not reached free agent status yet. In the end the difference is who can afford to resign their own talent so they can continue to compete year in and year out.
The Rays are much like the Indians in that they have to rely on scouting talent and then developing that talent. They have to be better than other teams in those areas as they absolutely cannot compete in the free agent or trade market for the high priced players. The biggest difference between a team like the Rays/Indians and the Red Sox/Yankees is not necessarily that they can’t spend as much money on free agents; it is that they are unable to keep their star players and lose them to the likes of the Red Sox/Yankees.
It is a travesty that because of the current economic setup in baseball left-handed pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee are anchoring starting pitching staffs for other teams rather than being the best one-two punch in the game in Cleveland. If it were 20 years ago or so those two pitchers would still be wearing Indians’ uniforms for many years to come. But that is the difference with today’s game as the economic disparity that exists allows just a handful of teams to truly compete not only for the mega free agent stars but to keep their own mega stars.
You will never see the Yankees lose a Mariano Rivero or Robinson Cano in free agency as they just resign them. On the flip side teams like the Indians are forced to trade them or let them walk because they can’t compete with the bigger market teams on the open market to keep them.
The loss of star players eventually takes its toll on the fans. While it is a team game and not one player ultimately decides the fate of any team, it is a stars game and those names help relate the team to the fans. When a team has players that a fan can gravitate to and come to admire it makes that bond between the team and the fan even stronger. More people go to games.
But if a team continues to lose its star players eventually a lack of identity results and without a name or two to attach themselves to the fans begin to lose interest. It is a double whammy as not only does the team get worse because of the loss of a star player, but they also get hurt in tickets sales as the fans begin to lose interest.
Bottom line, teams with more money can afford to keep their own players and can also cover up mistakes by spending more money. Teams with much less money have to be careful who they resign and they cannot afford many misses or the contracts become an albatross to the team. That’s the problem with the game today, and every year it continues to grow bigger and bigger.
Trade options
The Indians say they are in the market for a starting pitcher. This may be true, but it is not because they lack depth, it is because they lack the certainty and consistency a team wants from a starting rotation going into a year they expect to content. Reading between the lines it may also mean they need to sign or trade for a starting pitcher because they may end up using some of their starting pitching depth in a trade or two to pick up some bats for the lineup.
Right now assuming health and that right-hander Fausto Carmona’s option is picked up the first four starters in the rotation next year will be right-handers Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Tomlin, and Carmona. A big battle for the fifth starter spot is brewing this spring between right-handers Jeanmar Gomez and Zach McAllister and left-hander David Huff. The Indians will also have other starting pitching options on the 40-man roster at their disposal in Triple-A with right-handers Corey Kluber and Hector Rondon as well as left-hander Scott Barnes who is expected to be rostered this offseason.
The Indians also have several starting pitching prospects at the Double-A Akron level they like as potential starters with right-hander Austin Adams and lefties T.J. McFarland and Matt Packer. That’s a lot of depth even with right-hander Carlos Carrasco out for all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery and Barnes and Rondon possibly limited in the early going since they are coming off of injury.
It is possible the Indians trade some of that upper level minor league starting pitching depth or some of the candidates for the fifth starter spot. The one player who probably has the most value is Gomez as he has mid-rotation potential and is still only 23-years old but already has two years of big league pitching experience.
The Indians also have a lot of good bullpen prospects littered up and down the Triple-A Columbus and Double-A Akron rosters that they can afford to lose and that teams will like. So if the Indians are to trade from an area of strength this offseason to get a need for the lineup, look for it to be from some of the plethora of mid-to-back-of-the-rotation starting pitching and backend bullpen options they have at the moment.
Decisions, decisions
Now that the World Series is over the countdown has officially begun for the Indians to make a decision on whether or not to pick up the 2012 club options for right-handed pitcher Fausto Carmona and outfielder Grady Sizemore. The Indians have until late Monday to decline or pick up the options for either player.
As of this writing no formal announcement has been made on what the Indians have decided to do, but it looks very likely that they will make the announcement sometime Monday afternoon. When the announcement is made the Indians are expected to pick up Carmona's $7.0 million option and decline Sizemore's $9.0 million option for next season.
The going rate for a pitcher like Carmona is about $7-9 million, and projections have him getting $7.8 million in arbitration if the Indians were to decline the option but instead offer him arbitration. So even though the $7.0 million is pretty expensive for an inconsistent pitcher like Carmona it is still a favorable salary compared to the market, especially considering the Indians will be looking for starting pitching anyway.
The Indians have been in contact with Sizemore's agent to try and restructure his 2012 salary amount to add another year or two of guaranteed years on the backend of a new deal for about the same money, but Sizemore's camp wants the option to either be picked up or allow him to enter free agency. The fact that the Indians have tried to negotiate the club option to get it to a lower price and that there are serious injury concerns with Sizemore make it very likely the Indians will decline the option. If they decline the option there would still be a good chance that if he does not get what he seeks in free agency that they can resign him for a lower price.
Cabrera honored
On Thursday the Sporting News (TSN) announced that shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera was named to their postseason American League All Star team. He hit .273 with 25 homers, 92 RBI and .792 OPS in 151 games. He is the first Indians shortstop named to the postseason All Star team since Lou Boudreau’s MVP season in 1948. He is also the first Indians player to be named to the team since outfielder Grady Sizemore and left-handed pitcher Cliff Lee in 2008.
Cabrera had a fantastic breakout season as he earned his first All Star selection and set new career-highs in virtually every major offensive category including hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, games and OPS. He led American League shortstops in RBI, was tied for first in hits and was second in runs, doubles and home runs. His 25 home runs were the highest single-season total in club history by a shortstop breaking Jhonny Peralta’s record of 24 home runs set in 2005. He also set a single-season home run mark for Venezuelan-born shortstops, and had the most RBI by an Indians shortstop since Boudreau drove in 106 in 1948.
Key dates
Now that the offseason has officially arrived here are some key dates to keep in mind:
November 2nd: Free agency begins
November 18th: 40-man rosters and minor league reserve lists need to be finalized
December 5-8th: The baseball Winter Meetings in Dallas, Texas
December 8th: The Rule 5 Draft
February 14-15th: Pitchers and catchers report for spring training (unofficial)
March 28-29: Opening night for 2012 season in Tokyo, Japan (Mariners vs. Athletics)
Carlin inked
On Friday the Indians resigned catcher Luke Carlin. In 63 games for Triple-A Columbus this past season he hit .213 with 5 homers, 27 RBI and .700 OPS. He was resigned to a minor league contract with an invite to Major League spring training and will likely be the backup catcher again at Columbus next year. Upper level catching prospect Chun-Hsiu Chen is expected to be the regular catcher in Columbus to start the season.
Parting shots
Did you know that even though the Indians had the best record in all of baseball in 1995 at 100-44 that they did not have home field advantage in any of their three playoff series’ that year? The rule has since been changed, but home field used to be predetermined and was not based on record. … Earlier this week Double-A Akron right-handed reliever Cory Burns was named by Minor League Baseball as the MiLBY Double-A Reliever of the Year. In 54 games this past season he went 2-5 with 35 saves and 2.11 ERA. … After being outrighted from the 40-man roster last week right-handed pitcher Mitch Talbot elected for free agency, but as of this writing outfielder Jerad Head has not.
Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).
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2 comments:
Ramon Hernandez is an interesting free agent this winter. If he is offered arbitration by the Reds he will be a Type A but at least the Indians 1st round pick is protected.
I'd also like the Indians to sign Kouzmanoff to a minor league deal.
Hernandez is interesting, but not at the cost of losing their 2nd round pick since the 1st rounder is protected. No thanks.
I do think they will make a noteworthy signing/trade or two....but will also bring in a few low risk low contract guys like Kouzmanoff and others like him looking to get a chance to prove health, etc. I have talked to some people around the league and there is a lot of unknown as to what exactly the Indians will do. One of the more interesting teams to follow this offseason whether you are a fan or not just to see what they do.
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