Tribe Happenings: The new Pronk is still like the old Pronk

Hafner has had a nice season, but has he

really been that much better? (Photo: AP)

Some news, notes, and thoughts from my Indians notebook…

Is Hafner really that different?

If you polled a lot of Indians fans and asked them their thoughts on designated hitter Travis Hafner this year the overwhelming response would be positive in that he is back to being a productive, feared hitter in the lineup.

If you polled those same people about their thoughts on Hafner the two seasons prior to this one, an overwhelming majority would probably say he was not very good and looked like his career was rapidly fading.

It is amazing how quickly the perception of a player can change with a good start to a season or a handful of big, clutch hits like Hafner has had this year. It is kind of like someone in fantasy sports riding a player or baseball betting on a team because they were so impressive early which can color their opinion of them.

But a look at the following numbers suggests that he is really that much different this year from the two previous years:

(Note: the four numbers in the batting line are from left to right: batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS)

2009: .272/.355/.470/.826, 16 HR, 49 RBI, 41 BB, 67 K in 338 at bats.
2010: .278/.374/.449/.824, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 51 BB, 94 K in 396 at bats.
2011: .293/.375/.465/.839, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 30 BB, 59 K in 256 at bats.

For as good of a season as Hafner appears to be having this year, it is not that much of an improvement over his previous two seasons. His batting average may be up 15 points but his walk rate is down slightly which is why his on-base percentage is almost exactly the same as last season. Also, his slugging percentage is actually less than his 2009 season which shows he really is not hitting with that much more power now than the last two years.

Taking it a step further, if you skip the injury plagued 2008 season when he hit .197/.305/.323/.628 in just 57 games that year, Hafner’s string of numbers from 2009-2011 also match up well with his 2007 numbers:

2007: .266/.385/.451/.837, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 102 BB, 115 K in 545 at bats.

What the numbers suggest is that Hafner really is not much different at all this season and that he has leveled out and become a consistent above average hitter over the last three seasons. It appears to be a safe bet that he is past the shoulder issues and other injuries that plagued his 2008 season, and is still one of the best designated hitter options around.

The Indians need Hafner’s veteran, power bat in the lineup so it looks like barring a major injury that he will be around through the end of his contract in 2013. Yes, that would mean the Indians pick up his 2013 club option for $13 million. It may just be picked up or the two parties may mutually agree to tear it up for a lower amount in exchange for an additional year or two of guaranteed money in 2014 and/or 2015.

Carrasco sidelined

With the fifth starter spot coming back up this weekend, a lot of people took their best guess as to what the Indians would do with Carlos Carrasco. It looked like he would simply just be optioned to Triple-A Columbus, but then come back as soon as rosters expanded on Sept 1st so that an option would not be used (20-day rule).

But then out of nowhere this week the Indians announced that Carrasco had been placed on the disabled list with right elbow inflammation. The injury came out of nowhere considering he made a good start in his last appearance against the Red Sox on August 3rd where he went 7.0 innings and allowed three runs on nine hits, three walks and had five strikeouts. He supposedly felt discomfort in the elbow region after the start, one where he made 112 pitches which is the most he has thrown in any game this season. He has thrown 100 pitchers or more nine times in his 21 starts this year and is 8-9 with a 4.62 ERA.

Carrasco had an incredible June where in six starts he went 4-2 with a 1.90 ERA and really looked to be turning the corner as a pitcher, but he followed that up with a poor July as in five starts he went 0-5 with a 9.13 ERA. His solid outing against the Red Sox was his best outing by far since June and the hope was he may have righted the ship.

This is Carrasco’s second trip to the disabled list this year as he went on it way back on April 29th with right elbow inflammation as well. It is possible the elbow issue from late April returned sometime in July and he tried to pitch through it which would explain the severe drop in performance and why he suddenly went on the disabled list out of nowhere.

This by no means is a “convenient” injury to make room on the roster. In the minor leagues teams can manipulate the roster by giving guys made up injuries like “calf strains” and stuff like that, but in no way do teams ever make up an injury to a pitcher’s elbow, shoulder or anywhere else with their arm. It would hurt the value of the player, and the MLBPA and the player’s agent would throw a fit and never allow it.

So this looks like a legit injury and one that is concerning since it is a recurring one. Hopefully tests come back fine and a greater concern is not found so that Carrasco can get back on the mound soon and help the Indians down the stretch.

Choo’s miraculous return

When outfielder Shin-Soo Choo fractured his left thumb on June 24th and had surgery to repair it a few days later, he said he was a quick healer and would be back sooner than expected.  The proclamation at the time seemed far fetched and the odds were stacked against him on returning sooner rather than later.

Fast forward about six weeks and on Friday the Indians activated Choo from the 15-day disabled list, just a little over six weeks after the injury which is about two weeks ahead of schedule from the eight to ten weeks he was expected to be out. Had anyone been able to take those long odds from an internet sports betting website they'd be a rich person right now.

There is no question that Choo’s return is very much welcomed as even though he is yet another left-handed bat in the Indians lineup, he is an All Star caliber talent who can affect a game not only with his bat but with his arm in the outfield as well. He was only hitting .244 with 5 homers, 28 RBI and a .687 OPS at the time of his injury, but he was starting to come around as a hitter just before he went down and he is a notorious strong finisher as over the last three years from 2008-2010 he has hit a combined .322/.406/.531/.937 in the second half of those seasons.

Choo will hit out of the leadoff spot in the Indians batting order as he initially returns from his injury. The reason for this is because manager Manny Acta wants to get Choo as many opportunities as possible to get his timing back. In addition to that Acta appears to have settled on Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner and Carlos Santana hitting two through five in the lineup, so hitting an on-base, power and speed guy like Choo at the top of the lineup should only help him get better pitches to hit.

So long Kearns

The return of Choo marked the end of outfielder Austin Kearns’ time with the Indians this season. He was designated for assignment to make room on the 25-man roster for Choo, and he leaves the Indians hitting .200 with two homers, seven RBI, and a .589 OPS.

How Kearns was able to stick around on a contending team well into August with those numbers is a mystery that will never be solved. It is clear his value to the team and to the organization was less about his production but more in the intangibles he provided with his leadership, makeup and experience. Also, the lack of any real right-handed hitting alternatives via the waiver wire, trade market, and internally at Triple-A Columbus helped keep him on the roster.

When outfielder/first baseman Shelly Duncan returned last weekend and played well, it sealed Kearns’ fate as Duncan has been a more productive hitter and has had a lot of success this year as a pinch hitter.

With Kearns out of the picture and a 40-man roster spot open, it is possible the Indians may soon fill that spot on the team with a right-handed bat that they are searching for on the trade market. If such a player does not surface in a trade, then you may see the Indians use that open 40-man spot to add Triple-A Columbus outfielder Jerad Head once rosters expand to 40 players in September.

Huff up

In a move that was long expected the Indians will call up left-hander David Huff from Triple-A Columbus today to make the start against the Twins and be the fifth starter for the time being.

Huff, 26, was originally recalled in July and pitched wonderfully in three starts going 1-1 with a 0.51 ERA. But after his last start against the Red Sox on August 2nd he was optioned out to Columbus in order to add newly acquired right-handed pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to the roster.

With the Indians having an off day this past Monday they did not need a fifth starter again until this weekend. Right-hander Carlos Carrasco also immediately started serving his six-game suspension after his August 3rd start, but by league rules the Indians were not allowed to replace him on the roster while he served the suspension so had to play with 24 players. With no need for a fifth starter for over ten days and Carrasco’s suspension limiting the roster, the Indians opted to send Huff to the minors. This allowed him to keep pitching and also allowed them to add another player to the roster while Carrasco were unavailable.

Huff made one start in Columbus this past Monday where he pitched 6.2 strong innings and allowed three runs on six hits, two walks and had three strikeouts. It was a tune up for his start today where he will be making his fourth start for the Indians this season. He has been a much different and more effective pitcher since returning this season, so hopefully that continues as the Indians could really use a lefty in the backend of the rotation that competes and keeps them in games.

The Big Kipper

Second baseman Jason Kipnis has been very impressive since his callup in mid-July from Triple-A Columbus. He has been as advertised with the bat as he has made an immediate impact to the lineup, and while he has made a few mistakes defensively he has flashed some great athleticism, headiness, and solid defensive ability at second base.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Jon Heyman made a note shortly after Kipnis was called up that one American League executive compared the impact of his callup to that of a big time July trade acquisition. That comment was spot on as the Indians have had a huge upgrade at second base not only offensively but defensively as well by passing the torch from Orlando Cabrera to Kipnis.

Kipnis has been setting all kinds of records and he has barely been in the big leagues for four weeks. He homered in four straight games from July 31st to August 3rd which is the first time a rookie has ever done that in Major League history within the first two weeks of their debut. Then on Wednesday night against the Tigers he had a memorable 5-for-5 night with a double, homer, three RBI, and four runs scored. That is the first time in team history a rookie has ever had at least five hits, three RBI and four runs scored in a single game.

Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

Posted in: Austin Kearns,Carlos Carrasco,David Huff,Jason Kipnis,Shelley Duncan,Shin-Soo Choo,Travis Hafner